Implications of climate change for fisheries in the tropical Pacific: Economic development and food security

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1 Implications of climate change for fisheries in the tropical Pacific: Economic development and food security Johann Bell

2 Vulnerability assessment 88 scientists from 36 institutions Supported by

3 Pacific Island countries and territories Melanesia Micronesia Polynesia

4 Regional technical agency 22 PICTs and 4 metropolitan members (Australia, New Zealand, France and USA) Provides advice in 15 areas e.g. Oceanic Fisheries Programme

5 Outline Approach used for the vulnerability assessment Summary of effects on fisheries Effects on plans to use resources Economic development Food security Identify the best adaptations Vital role of tuna

6 Our approach Projected changes to atmospheric and oceanic conditions Ecosystems supporting fish Fish stocks Implications for economic development, food security and livelihoods Adaptations and policies needed to reduce threats and capitalise on opportunities

7 Our approach Scenarios and timeframes Projected changes to atmospheric and oceanic conditions B1/A B A Ecosystems supporting fish Fish stocks Implications for economic development, food security and livelihoods Adaptations and policies needed to reduce threats and capitalise on opportunities

8 Our approach Scenarios and timeframes Projected changes to atmospheric and oceanic conditions B1/A B (A2 2050) A Ecosystems supporting fish Fish stocks Implications for economic development, food security and livelihoods Adaptations and policies needed to reduce threats and capitalise on opportunities

9 Our approach Projected changes to atmospheric and oceanic conditions Ecosystems supporting fish Fish stocks Implications for economic development, food security and livelihoods Adaptations and policies needed to reduce threats and capitalise on opportunities

10 Maximise sustainable livelihoods from fisheries resources Our approach How could climate change derail regional plans? Optimise contributions of tuna to economic development Provide sufficient fish for food security

11 Effects on fisheries

12 Skipjack tuna (A2) West (average) East (average)

13 Coastal fisheries (A2) Negligible -10 to -20 up to -50

14 Freshwater fisheries (A2) to to +12.5

15 Aquaculture (A2) System Ponds Coastal +Low -Low +Low to Medium -Low to Medium +Medium -Medium

16 How could the projected changes to tuna resources affect plans for economic development? Government revenue GDP Development of national fleets More domestic processing

17 Source: Gillett (2009) Economic development Government revenue ( ) 6 12 < <5 Examples only Range x y

18 Economic development Changes in revenue (A2) Examples only Range x y Data are midpoints of estimated change Source: Gillett (2009); Bell et al. (2011)

19 Economic development Changes in revenue (A2) Lower estimate = 30 GR x 37 increase in 2035 = 11 Higher estimate = 50 GR x 37 increase in 2035 = 18.5 Midpoint increase in GR = 14.7 Therefore GR increases from midpoint value of 40 to Examples only Range x y Data are midpoints of estimated change Source: Gillett (2009); Bell et al. (2011)

20 Economic development Changes in revenue (A2) 6 12 < <5 Examples only Range x y Data are midpoints of estimated change Source: Gillett (2009); Bell et al. (2011)

21 Source: Gillett (2009); Bell et al. (2011) Economic development Gross Domestic Product ( ) (Processing) Examples only Range x y

22 Economic development Changes in GDP (A2) Examples only Range x y Data are midpoints of estimated change Source: Gillett (2009); Bell et al. (2011)

23 Economic development Changes in GDP (A2) Examples only Range x y Data are midpoints of estimated change Source: Gillett (2009); Bell et al. (2011)

24 Key points PICTs with greatest dependency on tuna should receive additional benefits! Losses of revenue and GDP occur mainly in PICTs where tuna makes a relatively low contribution to economic development (due to size of economies) Fairly good news!

25 How could changes to coastal fisheries affect fish available for food security? In rural areas: of fish is caught by household fish contributes of animal protein intake In half of PICTs fish consumption is at least 2 4 times the global average

26 How could changes to coastal fisheries affect fish available for food security? Plans are to: Provide 35 kg of fish per person per year Maintain traditional fish consumption where it is >35 kg

27 Three categories of PICTs Group 1 Group 1 Large area of reef per person Group 2 Group 2 Large area of reef per person but remote Group 3 Group 3 Small area of reef per person

28 Three categories of PICTs Group 1 1 Group 2 2 Group 3 3 PICT Cook Islands, Marshall Islands, New Caledonia, Palau, Pitcairn Islands and Tokelau FSM, French Polynesia, Kiribati, Niue, Tonga, Tuvalu and Wallis and Futuna American Samoa, Fiji, Guam, Nauru, CNMI, PNG, Samoa, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu Average reef area per person 2010 (m2) 230,000 90,

29 Why is reef area so important? Most fish used for food are caught near coral reef habitats Sustainable catches of fish from reefs are not known for most PICTs; median estimate of 3 tonnes per km2 per year is used instead

30 Group 1 No effects of popn growth or climate change Production remains > 35 kg per person per year PICT Fish available per person per year (kg)* 2035 A A A2 Cook Islands Marshall Islands New Caledonia Palau Tokelau *Based on 3 tonnes of fish and invertebrates per km2 of reef per year

31 Group 2 Some implications (assuming effective distribution) Production usually > 35 kg per person per year PICT Fish available per person per year (kg) 2035 A A A2 FSM French Polynesia Kiribati Niue Tonga Tuvalu Wallis & Futuna *Based on 3 tonnes of fish and invertebrates per km2 of reef per year

32 Group 3 Severe implications due to population growth PICT *Based on 3 tonnes of fish and invertebrates per km2 of reef per year Fish available per person per year (kg) American Samoa Fiji Guam Nauru PNG CNMI Samoa Solomon Islands Vanuatu 9 7 4

33 Additional effects of climate change 50 Fiji 50 Solomon Islands kg kg Year Year Effects of population growth Additional effects of climate change

34 Group 3 Gap to be filled Gap in fish needed per person per year (kg) PICT Popn CC A2 Popn CC A2 Popn CC A2 American Samoa Fiji Guam PNG Nauru CNMI Samoa Solomon Islands Vanuatu *Based on 3 tonnes of fish and invertebrates per km2 of reef per year

35 Where will the fish come from? Fortunately, we do have good options!

36 Group 3 How best to fill the gap? Fish needed for food security tonnes (x1000) Coastal fisheries Freshwater fisheries Pond aquaculture Tuna (and bycatch)

37 2035 (34,216 t) Fiji 2035 (7070 t) Samoa (37,125 t) 2050 (7341 t) (46,608 t) 2100 (8405 t) (140,690 t) Papua New Guinea (3056 t) American Samoa (172,524 t) 2050 (3439 t) (274,625 t) 2100 (4741 t) Fish needed (tonnes x 1000) Fish needed (tonnes x 1000)

38 How should we adapt? To reduce the threats To harness the opportunities

39 After Grafton (2010) Adaptation decision framework Addresses Climate Change Long term Loss Long term Gain Addresses Present drivers Short term Gain Short term Loss Lose Lose Win Lose Lose Win Win Win

40 Source: P. Lehodey Adaptations (economic development) L L W L L W W W Vessel Days Scheme to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets La Niña El Niño Vessel owners fishing in PNA waters can purchase and trade fishing days depending on the location of the tuna S Parties to the Nauru Agreement: Federated States of Micronesia, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Ask Solomon Islands and Tuvalu ~ 95 of tuna from PICTs is caught in the EEZs of PNA members

41 Source: P. Lehodey Adaptations (economic development) L L W L La Niña L W W W Vessel Days Scheme to manage effort of industrial tuna fleets Skipjack tuna El Niño 2050 A2 VDS has Ask potential to be modified regularly to accommodate movement of tuna to the east S 2100 A2

42 Adaptations (economic development) L L W L L W W W Energy audits of industrial fishing vessels Addresses likelihood of near term rises in fuel costs Will assist national fleets from PNG and Solomon Islands that may have to go greater distances in the future to catch fish for their canneries

43 Adaptations to supply canneries in PNG and Solomon Islands Maintain/Develop Economic Partnership Agreements with the EU (and support PICTs supplying tuna to conform with food safety and IUU fishing regulations) Reduce access of distant water fishing nations to the EEZ to provide more fish for national vessels Require DWFNs operating with their EEZs to land some of the catch for use by local canneries; Enhance existing arrangements for the national fleet to fish in other EEZs

44 Adaptations (food security) L L W L L W W W Increase access to tuna for subsistence fishers with low cost, inshore Fish Aggregating Devices (FADs)

45 Adaptations (food security) L L W L L W W W Store and distribute tuna and by catch from industrial fleets to urban areas

46 Adaptations (food security) L L W L L W W W Develop pond aquaculture

47 Adaptations (food security) Manage catchments and coastal fish habitats L L L W W L W W 2050 A2 Ask Healthy coral reefs, mangroves and seagrasses Projected rainfall (A2) Projecte S A2 Source: Gehrke et Source: al.; 2011 P. Lehodey Lough et al. 2011

48 Adaptations (food security) Manage catchments and coastal fish habitats L L L W W L W W 2050 A2 Degraded coral reefs, mangroves and seagrasses Ask Healthy coral reefs, mangroves and seagrasses Projected rainfall (A2) Projecte S A2 Source: Gehrke et Source: al.; 2011 P. Lehodey Lough et al. 2011

49 Adaptations (food security) L L W L L W W W Restore and sustain coastal and freshwater fisheries and their habitats Poorly managed fisheries a) b) Quantity of fish/habitat Quantity of fish/habitat Fish habitat Fish habitat Fish needed by growing population Time Well managed fisheries Fish available from coastal stocks stocks Fish needed by growing population Fish available from stocks Fish available from coastal stocks Gap in supply of fish to be filled FAO Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries Ask Ecosystem Approach Fisheries Management Time

50 Economic development Summary East gains, where PICTs have high dependence on tuna, west has losses but effects on GDP are small Food security Effects of population growth swamp effects of climate change Contribution of coastal fisheries decreases, but gap can be filled mainly by tuna Adaptations Win win adaptations available for economic growth and food security

51 A team effort! Lead authors Janice Lough, AIMS Alex Ganachaud, IRD Robert LeBorgne, IRD Ove Hoegh Guldberg, University of Queensland Michelle Waycott, James Cook University Morgan Pratchett, James Cook University Peter Gehrke, SMEC Patrick Lehodey, CLS Tim Pickering, SPC

52 Thank you