BUILDING THE CASE FOR FURTHER EXPLOITATION CONTROL MEASURES REQUIREMENT AND OPTIONS.

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1 ENVIRONMENT AGENCY RIVER WYE SALMON ACTION PLAN BUILDING THE CASE FOR FURTHER EXPLOITATION CONTROL MEASURES REQUIREMENT AND OPTIONS. Peter Gough, EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Environment Agency is seeking views on a proposal to reduce exploitation of salmon in the rod fishery operating within the River Wye through the introduction of a new byelaw requiring full catch-and-release fishing. This paper sets out the technical case for this by describing issues around the exploitation of Wye salmon within the river and the options to reduce this. It reviews the status of the stock that supports the fisheries, and builds the case for further urgent exploitation control. During the 1960s the Wye supported a rod catch that sometimes exceeded 5,000 fish per year and, as recently as the late 1980s, averaged 3,500 fish per year. Catches since 2000 have exceeded 1,000 only once and the current ten-year average catch is 653 salmon. Over the same time period the catch of salmon in the Severn Estuary by net and fixed engine has declined from annual totals occasionally exceeding 6,000 to a recent ten-year average of 900 (comprising fish derived from several rivers). The decline in the Wye rod catch is in itself evidence of a severe stock depletion, but not unequivocal evidence of a stock collapse as the lower level of catch appears to have been sustained. The statutory conservation bodies deem the stock to be in unfavourable condition. However to the many Wye fishermen and fishery owners the decline is evidence of a very serious deterioration in the fishery. A more rigorous analysis of stock status is drawn from standard Environment Agency stock assessment procedures. Annual assessments of compliance with the conservation limit are undertaken by deriving estimates of egg deposition from calculated spawning escapement, which is itself based on rod catch statistics and estimates of exploitation. No river-specific direct observations on run size or the rate of exploitation are available as there is no fish counter data available for the river. The exploitation rate used is therefore that measured annually on the River Dee in North Wales. The most recent assessment of the stock indicates that compliance with the conservation limit is very poor and the stock continues to be assessed as at risk with no evident trend of improvement. It is predicted to continue to remain at risk until at least An alternative method for compliance assessment using variable exploitation rates derived from known angling effort has been developed and has been applied to the River Wye. This also indicates that the river is at risk. It is important to note that there is inevitable uncertainty around the predictions of both models and caution is needed in triggering management control. However by whatever measure, the current status of the River Wye stock gives continued serious cause for concern. Having considered the available evidence, and applied the National decision structure for salmon stock management, it is concluded that further reduction towards zero exploitation of Wye salmon is urgently required. We have considered the following options:- 1. do nothing - this will not achieve the required reduction in exploitation 2. promote voluntary catch and release fishing this has already failed to achieve the required reduction in exploitation 3. close the rod fishery this would result in negative socio-economic impacts 4. regulate exploitation by the making of a new byelaw for full catch-and-release fishing for salmon on the River Wye we believe that this option must be pursued, and we have considered what the duration of such a byelaw should be. Further, we consider 1

2 that there are legitimate enforcement issues if catch and release provisions are not extended to sea trout. Accordingly it is intended that any future catch and release byelaw arising as a result of this paper will cover both salmon and sea trout. We are therefore proposing to seek a new byelaw requiring full catch and release fishing for a period of ten years. We would like your views on this, most notably the proposed duration of the measure. We are additionally urgently considering options for the estuary fisheries that exploit Wye salmon (although these are not fully presented in this paper, and we are not seeking views on this):- 5. the development and implementation of new NLOs for the estuary lave net and draft net fisheries, to replace the existing NLOs 6. the reduction in exploitation by historical installation fisheries operating under certificates of privilege (the putcher fisheries). 2

3 1. INTRODUCTION This paper sets out the current position on the performance of the Wye salmon stock and the level of exploitation, and presents the case for further control measures. This is informed by the decision structure for salmon fishing controls that introduces a stock management protocol driven by the requirements of the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC) and supporting objectives under the European Habitats and Species Directive (92/43/EEC). River Wye salmon are exploited in several fisheries throughout the range of the adult stock. Distant water fisheries are managed or influenced at EC level, and binding quotas in the Greenland and Faroese fisheries have been in place for many years (see Anon, 2010). Closer to the UK, the risk of exploitation in the western Ireland coastal fisheries has been substantially reduced since the introduction of a new management regime there in 2007 which effectively ended exploitation of salmon destined for rivers in England and Wales (Anon, 2010). The remaining fisheries exploiting Wye salmon are those fixed engines and nets operating in the Severn Estuary, almost entirely east of the M48 crossing, and the rod fishery within the river itself. Previous byelaws specific to the River Wye salmon rod fishery has included migratory trout (sea trout). This has been done to eliminate the risk of anglers misidentifying fish, leading to the inadvertent or deliberate killing of salmon. It is noted that the Wye is not recognised as a sea trout river, the reported annual rod catch having only exceeded fifty fish twice in the last twenty years. The rod fishery measures exploitation options presented here should therefore be considered to apply equally to migratory trout (sea trout). 1.1 Background To Fishing Effort Controls All fishing is controlled through annual licencing systems, which include an associated legal requirement to report catch to the Environment Agency. Rod fishing must adhere to relevant byelaws that may influence the methods of fishing and the season within which the fishery may operate. Net and fixed engine operations must also comply with relevant byelaws and, in the case of the fixed engines (putchers), they must also meet the requirements established by the certificates of privilege, issued by the Government in the 1860s, under which they operate The Rod Fishery The Wye rod fishery is well known and, until about 1990, was acknowledged as the most productive fishery within England and Wales. The location of the greatest proportion of the catch in any year is dependent upon environmental conditions, notably river discharge, and the relative abundance of each component of the stock. Rod fisheries are therefore distributed throughout the main river, but the performance of each river section depends on the prevailing environmental conditions and the presence or absence of the relevant sea-age component of the stock. 3

4 Traditional spring salmon beats are located in the middle reaches, approximately between Ross-on-Wye to Hay on Wye, however the widespread decline of earlyrunning salmon means that the most important fisheries today are those that yield the greatest overall catches of other sea-age components. These fisheries, located downstream of Monmouth, continue to be popular and have consequently largely retained their previously high commercial value. In wetter years, and after in-season flood events, fisheries in the middle reaches of the river between Ross-on-Wye and Hereford and in the upper river between Glasbury and Builth Wells can still produce a significant proportion of the catch The overall catch of salmon within the Wye rod fishery has declined substantially over the past few decades. A similar decline is reported for most salmon rivers, however the Wye has suffered more than most, possibly due to factors affecting the characteristic spring run of the Wye and its other multi-sea-winter salmon, together with the historic relative paucity of grilse in the river. The change in structure of the stock has influenced the predominant location of capture The peak catches in the river were in the late 1960s when annual totals sometimes exceeded 5,000 salmon, the great majority of which were spring salmon. As recently as 1990 the rolling average catch was still about 3,500, however the catch fell substantially after this time to as few as 400 salmon. Since then the catch has shown tentative signs of a small recovery however the current 5-year average catch is still only about 600 fish little more than 10% of the historical peak catch. Rod fishing methods are currently restricted by byelaws:- Rod season for salmon:- March 3 rd to October 17 th in Wye downstream of Llanwrthwl Bridge. March 3 rd to October 25 th in Wye upstream of Llanwrthwl Bridge and in tributaries. Current restrictions:- National Salmon Byelaws (2009) apply Wales spring salmon byelaws apply River Wye Rod and Line (Salmon and Migratory Trout) Byelaws apply. o Fly or spin only March 3 rd to August 31 st o Fly only September 1 st to October 17 th (25 th where appropriate). The use of bait fishing was first prohibited by byelaw in 2002, mainly because of its incompatibility with catch-and-release fishing The Estuary Net Fisheries Within the Severn Estuary exploitation by nets and fixed engines continues but fishing effort and catches have greatly reduced over the past few decades. The three methods of fishing within the estuary have developed to suit the unique tidal conditions that prevail: 4

5 Putchers (and putts) are, traditionally, conical baskets made from natural materials, but more recently from steel, and fished in ranks, often containing many hundreds of baskets as specified by the Certificate of Privilege (CoP) under which each rank operates. Ranks consisting of up to three or four tiers of baskets are positioned within the inter-tidal zone across the tidal flow. They are usually arranged to fish on the ebb tide, and fish are caught as they fall-back on the tide and are trapped within the baskets, to be retrieved once the rank is exposed at low tide. Some ranks also operate on flood tides. The identity of each rank entitled to fish was set by the issue of a CoP, granted by Government in the 1860s to about 45 fisheries in the Severn Estuary (and more elsewhere in the UK). Each certificate defines the location of the rank and the number of putchers (or putts larger baskets often used for catching shrimp) that the owner of the right is entitled to operate. In some cases the CoP may also permit the operation of stop-boats, another method largely unique to the estuary, however none have been operated for many years. Lave nets, large triangular hand-held nets that are used to intercept and catch individual salmon. Draft nets, conventional seine nets set to encircle and catch salmon. The low abundance of salmon has brought about the closure of most of the CoP putcher fisheries that typically caught relatively few salmon, whilst a combination of private interests and Environment Agency action has brought about the closure of several more. A small number of fishermen continue to operate the few remaining active putcher ranks, up to 5 of which have been licenced in recent years. The lave net and draft net fisheries have similarly declined over the past few decades, and since introduction of Net Limitation Orders (NLOs) in 2009, no more than 3 and 25 respectively may be licenced. The 2 NLOs, one each for the draft net and lave net fisheries, were approved for a short duration of three years as DEFRA anticipated in 2008 the requirement to urgently re-assess the level of exploitation in the estuary. Some of the putcher and net fishermen are seeking to maintain the history and heritage of salmon fishing in the estuary, whilst catching few fish, however a small number (operating 2 putcher ranks and perhaps 4 or 5 lave netsmen) catch numbers of salmon considered to be significant by the standards of today. The stock exploited by all of the estuary fishermen is a mixed one, supported originally by stocks in the rivers Severn, Wye and Usk (Swain, 1982) but now also by stocks from the rivers Ebbw, Rhymney and Taff (Jones, 1993). The work of Swain (1982) demonstrated that fish caught in the estuary fisheries between Chepstow and Gloucester included fish caught and tagged as smolts in the River Wye (together with smolts from the rivers Usk and Severn). These fish would have been destined to return to the Wye after a period within the greater Severn Estuary. It is possible, but 5

6 not confirmed, that the contribution of Wye salmon to the exploited stock is less in the more easterly fisheries. Advice from the International Council for Exploration of the Sea (ICES, anon. 2010), is that mixed stock fisheries present particular threats to stock status. This is because it is not possible to manage discrete river stocks within a mixed stock fishery Recent Regulatory Action Several measures have been implemented to manage the rate at which Wye salmon are exploited (Table 1). The purpose of these measures has been to increase the spawning escapement of salmon so that the probability of compliance with the conservation limit, and hence the longer-term stock management objective, would be increased. Table 1 Control measures for reduction in salmon exploitation Control Mechanism Management decision Wales Spring Salmon Byelaws (Water Resources Act, 1991) Rivers affected (SESAP) Date Introduced Measure Wye (and 1984 Closure of net fisheries (drift net probably others) and stop-boat) based at Chepstow Wye and Usk 1995 Method controls. Wye: fly-only 26 th January to 30 th April and 1 st to 17 th October. Fly or spin only 1 st to 31 st May. South East Wales drift net and putcher seasons adjusted with start delayed to 15 th May. National Salmon Byelaws (Water Resources Act, 1991, Environment Act 1995, SAFFA 1975). All rivers in England and Wales 1999 (Renewed in 2009) Mandatory catch and release of all rod caught salmon prior to 16 th June. Season adjustments for net fisheries: putts and putcher season commences 1 st June and ends 15 th August. Lave nets and draft nets season commences 1 st June and ends 31 st August. River Wye Rod and Line (Salmon and Migratory Trout) Byelaws (Water Resources Act, 1991) Wye 2002 (Renewed in 2009) Method controls and season adjustment. All methods other than fly and spin prohibited. Fly and spin 3 rd March to 31 st August. Fly only 1 st Sept to 17 th October. 6

7 River Usk Net Limitation Order (Salmon and Freshwater Fisheries Act, 1975) Salmon and Sea Trout Netting Byelaws (2003) Wye Fishery elected putcher closure Usk, Wye and other rivers of south Wales Wye (and probably others) 1997 Reducing NLO designed to phase-out fishery (mixed stock fishery located close to mouth of Usk) in time In practice the reducing NLO was triggered and the fishery closed following a temporary buy-out by stakeholders, led by the Wye and Usk Foundation (WUF), in Byelaw formally ended drift net fishing for salmon at the Uskmouth location Closure of putcher ranks (mixed stock fishery located close to mouth of Wye) through early revocation of leases. Goldcliffe putcher rank closure through management agreement Usk and Wye (and probably others) 2000 Temporary closure of putcher ranks (mixed stock fishery located close to mouth of Usk) through 5-year buy-out led by WUF Fishery formally ended following acquisition by EAW. Lydney Park putcher rank cessation of operation All 2004 Single year closure achieved through payment by the EA not to operate Wye Fishery control of Black Rock lave net fishery Wye (and possibly others) 2008 New lease introduced to cap fishing effort and total allowable catch (mixed stock fishery located close to mouth of Wye). Severn Estuary lave net fishery Severn Estuary draft net fishery Lydney Park putcher rank cessation of operation All 2009 Net limitation order, All 2009 Net limitation order, All 2010 Single year closure, achieved through payment by group led by Wye and Usk Foundation (including EAW) not to operate. 7

8 1.2 Current Stock Status The status of all principle salmon stocks in England and Wales is assessed annually by comparing estimates of egg deposition with the target set for the river. Additionally we assess performance against the management target, under which a river should meet or exceed its conservation limit for 4 years in every 5. The fundamental data used is the reported rod catch together with estimates of the exploitation rate (the proportion of the catch that is killed) and the natural and postrelease mortality of salmon. Because there is no river-specific data on exploitation rates, the measured rate from the River Dee, the nearest extensively monitored river, in North Wales is used. Specifically we use a 5-year running mean, which largely excludes the effect of any substantial annual variation on the Dee which may be related to local factors. This, together with other factors (for natural mortality, and for catch and release rate), is used to estimate spawning escapement and therefore egg deposition. An alternative to this current routine assessment procedure has also been explored. In this method an exploitation rate is derived from the known fishing effort (corrected declared days fished) on the River Wye. This approach, the Model A assessment, implies a lower exploitation rate than that taken from the River Dee (Figure 1), and therefore a higher spawner escapement estimate. Figure 1 Comparison of exploitation rates: current (routinely used on the Wye), and Model A using the relationship with angling effort River Wye Estimated rod exploitation rate % Model A Current Year Under both assessment methods, the River Wye stock remains at risk. The routine assessment and the Model A assessment differ slightly in their predictions for stock status in 2014, with the former remaining at risk and the latter being probably at 8

9 risk. Both models clearly indicate the urgency for immediate reduction of exploitation, whilst Model A provides some tentative indication that the initial stage of a small recovery may be evident. However it is very important to note that there is uncertainty with both assessment methods for the future status of the stock, as indicated from the broadening confidence limits in Figure 2 (where the yellow shaded area is the 95% confidence limits around the prediction), but both agree with the assessment of current stock status. For the purposes of comparison, the current information for the Severn and Usk is that they are both probably at risk and predicted to remain probably at risk until at least Figure 2 River Wye Estimates of egg deposition, and compliance with conservation limit Log (egg deposition, millions) Year Key Red line represents the conservation limit in terms of egg deposition Horizontal bold black line is the trend in annual egg deposition, projected into the future The yellow area represents the 95% confidence limits around the assessments of egg deposition 9

10 Figure 3 River Severn Estimates of egg deposition, and compliance with conservation limit Log (egg deposition, millions) Year Figure 4 River Usk Estimates of egg deposition, and compliance with conservation limit Log (egg deposition, millions) Year Notwithstanding recent exploitation controls, we conclude that there is currently no certainty that the Wye will comply with the conservation limit or management target by 2015 (Table 2). The assessed trend in stock performance on the Wye is one of continuing decline. The measures developed within this paper are therefore intended to urgently reduce exploitation of the Wye stock. 10

11 Table 2 River Performance of salmon stocks current assessment method Current Trend Compliance (Probability of Status upward trend) Conservation Limit (numbers of eggs in millions) Predicted Compliance status in 2014 Wye At risk 0.17 (declining trend) At risk Severn Probably at risk 0.26 (declining trend) Probably at risk Usk Probably not at 0.19 (declining trend) Probably at risk risk These data remain dependent on catch statistics, and the factors that influence catch. We will continue to monitor the performance of the stocks and to report our predictions of future compliance. 1.3 Summary of Main Issues in the Catchment - The Wye Salmon Action Plan and WFD River Basin Plan There are a number of factors currently constraining the Wye salmon stock, and these were set out and described in the Wye Salmon Action Plan (EA, 2003) and are now within the WFD River Basin Management Plan for the Severn River Basin District (EA, 2009). Habitat Works A range of actions is underway by the Environment Agency and by partners (notably the Wye And Usk Foundation), including the construction of fish passes and easements to improve access of spawners to all parts of the catchment, various riparian habitat improvement initiatives, and work to influence the land management practices of the agricultural community. These programmes have necessarily been more prevalent in Wales where additional resources have been made available by the Welsh Assembly Government, but are now increasingly in progress in the Herefordshire Wye. Work is also underway to address the impact of acidification on the upper Wye river basin through Environment Agency Wales action to influence forestry policy and the delivery of WFD obligations by Forestry Commission Wales. Recent and ongoing project work led by the Wye and Usk Foundation has sought to resolve acidification impacts through direct intervention by liming (Wye And Usk Foundation, pers.comm.). This has led to encouraging results in the upper Wye with juvenile fish distribution recently expanding into previously unoccupied territory. Large parts of the catchment are damaged by intensive agricultural activities. This is being addressed by the delivery of the English and Welsh catchment sensitive farming initiatives, and work to educate and inform farmers, and regulation under agri-environment schemes. Much remains to be done. 11

12 Regulation of Abstraction and Discharges An assessment of the potential impact of Environment Agency permits (water abstraction and discharges of potential pollutants to water, land and air) has been completed by Environment Agency Wales. Our conclusion is that the current abstracted volumes are not considered to be causing an impact on the salmon stock. However this process, the Habitats Directive Review of Consents process, has confirmed the requirement to modify some abstraction licences. This is not because of existing impact of abstraction practices but because of the risk of harm within existing licence conditions if these licences were fully used. Licence modification is currently being progressed through the appropriate mechanism for water resource planning with Dwr Cymru Welsh Water, the Welsh Assembly Government and, in due course, OFWAT. Taken together the obstructions to migration, some of which have become more significant as discharge patterns have appeared to change, and impoverishment of the quality of freshwater river habitats through sedimentation are implicated in salmon stock decline. Action to address this is included within the WFD River Basin Plan with a Government-set target to achieve progress towards full Good Ecological Status (GES) through the three WFD cycles (ending in 2015, 2021 and 2027). However it is noted that environmental factors leading to reductions in marine survival of salmon over the past few decades, which may be related to climate warming and change in the underlying ecology of the North Atlantic, have also contributed substantially to stock depletion. Action to address this is necessarily a matter for Government. 1.4 Other Issues This section considers issues that are frequently raised by fishing interests. They are considered here to illustrate that we acknowledge their importance, and that we have considered these issues in formulating our proposals for exploitation controls. Stocking There has been an annual programme of stocking into the River Wye by the Environment Agency and its predecessor organisations since the 1970s, and after In the intervening period, 1994 to 2004 stocking was supported by the Wye owners association from their hatchery at Green-bottom (now decommissioned) in the period 1994 to 2001 and then from the Wye and Usk Foundation hatchery at Painscastle (also de-commissioned) in the period 2002 to Stocking was presumably first carried out in an attempt to increase the subsequent number of adult fish, without reference to mitigation, however it is evident that this was done in an uncontrolled way and with no attempt at documenting the outcome of the work. This would not be acceptable today. The onset of stocking coincides with the beginning of the stock decline, which might have been the driver for the work. Stocking resumed as an initiative to mitigate for the permanent loss of the salmon spawning and rearing habitats in the Elan catchment, and the intent is to pursue this as an annual programme. We are considering whether there is 12

13 further permanently damaged catchment area that may justify an increase in the annual target for stocking. In undertaking this programme we are aware that genetic risks must be effectively managed, and that the some wild production of salmon will be eliminated. We are working to further understand and eliminate any genetic risk associated with the programme. We currently do not believe that increasing the size of the stocking programme is a desirable, effective, or acceptable means of restoring the wild population of Wye salmon. We also do not believe that a stocking programme to mitigate for the killing of salmon by anglers is an acceptable solution, particularly as in the absence of a byelaw it may increase the inclination of some anglers to kill fish. Nevertheless we understand that some third parties may wish to pursue this at their own cost. In this event we would require to be fully consulted and, in turn, we would be obliged under the Habitats Regulations to consult CCW and Natural England for an assessment of likely effect of any proposed stocking on the protected site. It is currently not clear whether they would support stocking other than that carried out for the purposes of mitigation. If a full catch and release byelaw is approved by ministers and implemented, then it would for the first time be a requirement for anyone wishing to take salmon as broodstock at any time to obtain from the Environment Agency a legal dispensation to do so. Piscivorous Birds The increasing numbers of cormorants and goosanders on the Wye indicates that the numbers of fish lost each year to these predators has inevitably increased. However the species of fish eaten will inevitably vary between locations and times of year. The very high abundance of coarse fish species (mainly chub, dace, bleak and roach) in several locations on the Wye will provide a very large food resource. However it is known from studies in Scotland that saw-bill ducks, in particular, will target salmonids at certain times of the year, although it is noted that these studies were in rivers where coarse fish were scarce or not present. Nevertheless the loss of juvenile salmon to avian predators is a highly emotive subject for many fishery interests and there are inevitable calls for the culling of both species of bird. Regulation of bird control by shooting to kill or to scare is carried out by DEFRA and WAG who seek advice through consultation with Natural England and CCW respectively and, increasingly, with the Environment Agency. The Environment Agency position in this consultation process is that we will set out the status of the Wye salmon stock and draw attention to the risks posed by any form of predation or exploitation. We believe that any factor causing the loss of Wye salmon, particularly after the density-dependant phase when concomitant reductions in other forms of natural mortality do not occur, are a significant problem for the stock. 13

14 Both species of bird, in common with all others, are protected under the Wildlife And Countryside Act There is therefore a substantial political difficulty in balancing statutory protection of the birds against the requirement to manage the protected of the depleted Wye salmon population. We note however that DEFRA intend to review the process for licencing of control measures for cormorants. 1.5 Purpose Whilst the precise sources of impact on the Wye salmon stock are not unequivocally known, it has been evident for many years that constraint of exploitation must be exercised in order to maximise spawning escapement. Advice from the North Atlantic Salmon Conservation Organisation (NASCO) has consistently been to reduce and, more recently, to prevent exploitation on river stocks which do not meet or exceed their conservation limits. ICES (Anon, 2010) further notes that the southern European 1SW and MSW stocks, which includes those of the UK, are currently at risk (of suffering reduced reproductive capacity) and therefore cannot safely sustain exploitation. The status of the Wye salmon stock continues to give great cause for concern, despite over a decade of investment to improve the freshwater habitats and considerable reductions in fishing mortality. The purpose of this document is, therefore, to review the current performance of the Wye salmon stock and to review options to improve the conservation of the stock. 2. CURRENT STATUS OF THE WYE SALMON STOCK 2.1 Introduction Data on performance of the River Wye salmon stock is available from:- Catch data from the Wye rod fishery, including data on catch and release, Catch data from the estuary fisheries exploiting the stock, Juvenile salmon distribution and density data, available for the Wye since about the mid 1980s. Although restricted to the period since stocks were performing strongly, these give information on the distribution of the spawning stocks and trends in abundance. 2.2 Salmon Nursery Habitat The quantity of salmon nursery habitat in the Wye is:- Table 3 Catchment statistics River Catchment area, km 2 Salmon Nursery Habitat area, Hectares Wye Including:- 4,171 1,610 Lugg catchment Excluding:- Monnow catchment 14

15 This estimate is based on a Geographical Information System assessment of the total length of river available, and river widths, measured at the time of routine fishery surveys. The estimate currently excludes habitat in the Monnow that was not accessible prior to 2008 because of the impassable barrier at Osbaston, and habitat in the Elan lost due to the effects of impoundment. The area includes the Irfon catchment, production in which is limited due to the impact of acidification, and the Lugg which is partly inaccessible because of the large number of man-made obstructions to fish migration. 2.3 Juvenile Populations Juvenile salmon populations have been assessed annually since the mid 1980s at up to 50 sites per year. Sites are surveyed quantitatively each year and standard catch depletion population estimates and densities are calculated. Recent data analyses have used all of the historic annual quantitative surveys from the Wye catchment (510 site surveys since 1985). Data were first analysed using both a linear and non-linear model on the full 26 year data set ( ). A more recent 9 year data set (294 site surveys between 2002 and 2010) was analysed using the linear model only. All semi-quantitative surveys and data from non-core monitoring, for example, in association with post-stocking and impact assessment surveys, were excluded from the analyses. Trends in the population data have been assessed using a Bayesian statistical model which separates spatial from temporal variance and takes account of missing data, when surveys were not undertaken. The level of confidence in the trend is indicated by calculated confidence intervals around the trend line (Figure 5). Linear Model The linear model fits a straight line to the data in order to determine whether a trend (upwards or downwards) is present in fish numbers over the timescale. The statistical significance of the trend is denoted by the P value, when P>0.975 indicates a statistically significant upward trend, and P<0.025 indicates a statistically significant downwards trend. Non-linear Model The non-linear model fits a curved line to the data, which may be more informative in long data sets of naturally fluctuating fish populations. Increased width of the confidence intervals describes periods where uncertainty is high as a result of limited or missing data. Non-linear models can highlight particular times within the data series where upwards or downwards trends have been more evident, however no statistical significance can be calculated for these trends. Both models indicate that salmon numbers have shown a highly statistically significant decline (P = 0.016) since 1985 (Figures 5 and 6). This partially supports the recent findings of Clews et al (2010) that juvenile salmon in the Wye declined substantially and unequivocally by 50% between 1985 and 2004 and further, that this appeared to be linked to synoptic climate effects. 15

16 Figure 5 1 Linear analysis of salmon population in Wye catchment, 1985 to 2010 (P = 0.016) 95% confidence interval around trend median Temporal variation around trend, with 95% CI Log Density Figure 6 Non-linear analysis of salmon population in the Wye catchment, 1985 to 2010 Median trend 1 Temporal variation around trend, with 95% CI 95% confidence interval around trend 0-1 Log Density However a linear analysis of the more recent short-term dataset (Figure 7) suggests that over this timescale the trend has marginally reversed, with salmon numbers showing a 70% chance of an upward trend since It is important to remember that such trends will vary from year to year, and that they should be considered as part of an overall analysis of stock dynamics including, for example, rod catch and habitat availability. 16

17 Figure 7 Short-term linear analysis of salmon population in the Wye catchment, 2002 to 2010 (P = 0.704) 1 95% confidence interval around trend median Temporal variation around trend, with 95% CI 0 Log Density Potential Output From the River It is not possible to estimate smolt output from the Wye due to very substantial logistical difficulties. However the pattern of change in output might be inferred from the consistently collected juvenile survey data above. This indicates that smolt output has declined over the past 35 years. This trend might be the result of a reduction in environmental performance of the catchment, for example as a result of intensification of land-use and diffuse pollution, or a reduction in the abundance of spawning salmon. Clearly it is highly likely to be a result of a combination of the two with environmental deterioration being the direct cause of the decline in adult numbers through a reduction in recruitment of juvenile fish. Potential impacts of inappropriate land use and the feasible impact of a number of other factors including water abstraction are currently the subject of ongoing work by the Environment Agency. The recent reversal of the declining trend is encouraging, but cannot be unequivocally attributed to any causative factor. Also of interest is the recently noted extension in geographical range of salmon juveniles back into some of the previously acidified upper Wye catchment. This is believed to be due to ongoing reductions in anthropogenic emissions of sulphur and the noted impact of this on recovering stream chemistry (Kernan et al, 2010), including several of those in mid-wales. This is complemented by evidence of local improvements due to the effects of local liming programmes (Wye And Usk Foundation, pers. comm.). The only consistent estimates of productivity within the rivers are from rod and net catch. 2.5 Performance of the Stock In common with the majority of other rivers, the salmon rod catch has declined since the period of peak catches in the 1960s (Figure 8). To some extent this reflects a change in stock composition with early-running salmon, which characterised the bulk of the Wye rod catch, being particularly depleted throughout the full range of salmon. 17

18 The Wye catch has declined by more than many other rivers in England and Wales because of the preponderance of these spring salmon and other MSW salmon. Since about 1990 the total annual rod catch in the Wye has declined by about 80% from the 10-year average of 3,500 that prevailed at that time. (Over the same period the decline in the adjacent River Severn has been less marked, at about 65% whilst the stock in the River Usk has generally improved). Net and fixed engines have operated throughout the estuary (Figure 9) although with the exception of the small lave net fishery at Blackrock, all those to the west of Lydney no longer operate. The fisheries exploit the mixed stock that includes an unknown proportion of Wye salmon. Catches here have demonstrated similar declines (Figure 10), however reductions in fishing effort have also occurred (Figure 11) as some of the older more experienced fishermen have ceased to fish. Figure 8 Reported rod catch (owners returns) in the Wye Declared salmon rod catch, River Wye Number NB data for 2010 preliminary only 18

19 Figure 9 Location of salmon fisheries in the Severn Estuary A) lave and draft net fisheries B) putcher ranks R. Wye R. Severn R. Wye R. Usk R. Usk R. Severn Lave nets Draft nets N R. Parrett Broad Oak 2. The Drough 3. Long Row 4. Rock Row 5. Poulton Court 6. Poulton Court 7. Hagloe (Milkmaid) 8. Hagloe 9. Naas Cliff 10. Hayward Rock 11. Lydney Park 12. Horse Pill 13. Marts and Dancers 14. Far Weir 15. Folly Weir 16. Slime Road 17. Lyde Rock 18. Aust Cliff 19. English Lake 20. Redwick (Sea Street) N 21. Redwick 22. Porton 23. Goldcliff (ebb rank) 24. Goldcliff (flood rank) 25. Parrett Figure 10 Severn estuary net and fixed engine catches, a) Putcher catch catch 3-yr mean no. of fish Year

20 b) Lave net catch catch 3-yr mean no. of fish c) Draft net catch catch Year 3-yr mean no. of fish Year The lave net uptake (Figure 11) includes the licenced fishery operating at Blackrock where up to 7 licences (plus one trainee licence) are permitted under the fishery lease, and the annual catch is capped at 15 salmon. 20

21 Figure 11 Severn Estuary total net licence uptake, Net Licences by method Severn Estuary Putchers Total Draft Severn Lave Total Drift Usk 2.6 The Environment Agency Stock Assessment Model The method used to set a conservation limit and assess annual compliance against this is that described in the 2003 SAP guidelines (Environment Agency, 2003a). The method compares the egg deposition target (edt) for the catchment with annual estimates of egg deposition. These two parameters are calculated as follows:- Edt Annual compliance calculated using the available habitat for spawning and the egg to smolt stock recruitment relationship for maximum gain. calculated as the estimated spawner escapement, and the eggs they would produce, from the reported rod catch and an appropriate assessment of the rate at which the stock is exploited (killed). This method is used throughout England and Wales and is supported by DEFRA and the Welsh Assembly Government. It is a central part of the conservation agencies assessment of the condition of the salmon feature within the Special Area of Conservation designation. It is also reported to ICES who recognise it as an appropriate method for salmon stock management. For the River Wye, we routinely use the rod catch as reported by the routine collation of owners returns, and the 5-year average exploitation rate of salmon from the River Dee in North Wales. We use the latter figure because these is no measurement of exploitation available for the Wye. 21

22 In calculating spawning escapement we take account of the extent of catch and release (C&R), together with post-c&r survival of fish, and of natural mortality. A full explanation of this approach is in Appendix 1. It is recognised that further refinement of the model used would lead to greater confidence in the results, through replacement of some of the assumptions with riverspecific information. In particular it is recognised that fishing effort has changed in many rivers, including the Wye, as further regulation is brought in and catches decline. We have therefore developed an alternative method in which river-specific angling effort (the declared number of days fished), together with the geographical extent of the fishery, is used to derive what may be a more realistic estimate of exploitation. This is the Model A method previously described (Appendix 2). 2.7 Summary: Drivers for exploitation control The driver for further exploitation control is the substantial shortfall in egg deposition (Table 4). Table 4 Performance of salmon stocks River Compliance (20%ile estimate as % of conservation limit) Wye 29% 25.4 Shortfall of eggs (current 20%ile, absolute) (millions) The River Wye has a shortfall in the number of spawners of between approximately 2,500 and 4,000 female salmon. Under both models of salmon stock assessment (usual method and the Model A method), the stock is currently defined as at risk. The management response for the Wye, triggered under the decision structure, is to urgently achieve zero exploitation by both rods and nets whilst looking to maintain socio-economic benefits where possible. Environment Agency Wales has worked with partners to achieve an overall catch and release figure of nearly 90% in the River Wye in past years (Figure 12). However it now seems clear that no further increase can be attained using voluntary measures alone, and the number of fish being killed each year is gradually increasing (Figure 13). 22

23 Figure 12 Wye catch-and-release rate, Wye salmon catch and release rate % released Year Figure 13 Number of Wye salmon killed, Number of salmon killed Number Year Environment Agency Wales has consulted its statutory Fisheries, Ecology and Recreation Advisory Committee in Wales and England (Midlands Region) on a recommendation to consult and introduce a byelaw to require mandatory catch and release of all salmon in the River. The committee in Wales gave unanimous support for a statutory catch-and-release byelaw, recommending a 10-year duration for the measure. The Midlands Regional FERAC gave similar support at their meeting in February 2011, specifically for a ten year byelaw with provision for a mid-term review. The Environment Agency has, under the auspices of the Severn Estuary Salmon Action Plan and in some cases following action by angling stakeholders (led by the Wye And Usk Foundation):- 23

24 o delivered the permanent closure of the Uskmouth drift net fishery, o delivered the permanent closure of the Goldcliffe putcher rank, o capped the level of exploitation at the Blackrock heritage lave net fishery, o used Net Limitation Orders to cap fishing effort in the Severn Estuary lave net and draft net fisheries, Despite these controls, and notwithstanding the time required for a reaction by the stock, it is evident that the current stock status demands further reductions in exploitation. We are therefore considering new NLOs for the lave and draft net fisheries, and reviewing options under the Marine and Coastal Access Act 2009 to reduce exploitation by putcher fisheries. EAW has, with partners, invested substantially in fish habitat and access improvements in the River Wye. This work is ongoing, however the low abundance of spawners is likely to be limiting the realisation of benefits from this investment. 3. MANAGEMENT OPTIONS 3.1 Compliance with Management Objective Current compliance of the stock and the conservation limit is set out in Table 2. The Wye stock is currently, and is predicted to remain, at risk. Under our decision structure we are therefore required to urgently reduce exploitation to zero. The stock is therefore not in an position to support any exploitation. Additionally, as a result of the obligations of the Habitats Directive and Regulations, the Environment Agency is required to exercise its powers and duties to urgently reduce exploitation of Wye salmon to zero where possible in order to restore the favourable conservation status of the Wye SAC. 3.2 Evaluation of Effect of Selected Management Options The options that have been considered are:- 1. Do Nothing If nothing is done then it is forecast that the current depleted state of the Wye salmon stock is likely to persist. It is possible that there will be some gains from past investments in freshwater habitat improvements. Similarly, variations in marine survival may lead to occasional relatively high or low abundance of salmon that could mask the underlying stock status. International and national guidance are clear in urging a suspension of exploitation so that stock recovery might occur. This option is therefore dismissed. 2. Voluntary Catch and Release Voluntary catch and release has been actively promoted by the Wye And Usk Foundation and the Environment Agency for many years. This, together with 24

25 the statutory requirements of the National Salmon Byelaws (1999, renewed in 2009) have transformed angling behaviour on the river with overall catch and release reaching a peak of 89% (Figure 12). However uptake has declined since that peak in 2006 and the number of fish being killed by anglers has recently shown an increasing trend, despite repeated promotion of the measure and an indication that failure to bring about an increase in the rate might lead to the requirement for a byelaw. The voluntary approach has not worked sufficiently well, and this option is therefore dismissed. 3. Close the rod fishery This might be explored through the application of rod fishing byelaws that effectively end the opportunity to fish for salmon at all. In practice it is not clear that this is a viable option, as we are obliged to issue licences (by virtue of paragraph 15 of Schedule 2 to the Salmon and Freshwater Fisheries Act 1975) to anyone who is eligible and who requests a licence. This option has not been explored further because of the clear benefits of retaining a rod fishery on the Wye, including the maintenance of socioeconomic benefits and the ongoing presence of anglers on the river bank. This option is therefore dismissed. 4. Regulate exploitation in the rod fisheries Under this option a new byelaw would be introduced requiring full catch and release of all salmon caught in the River Wye with the following options for duration:- a) Six year duration to enable a full generation of protected salmon to spawn (assuming smolts are aged two and the predominant return is as two sea-winter salmon) and an assessment of benefit of the first full escapement year to be made, b) Ten year duration to achieve amplification of stock through full protection of two generations of fish. This option has been selected and the recommend duration is ten years. 3.3 Exploitation of Wye Salmon in the Severn Estuary It is known that Wye salmon are represented within the mixed stock of salmon that is exploited by net and trap fisheries in the Severn Estuary. The requirement to urgently achieve zero exploitation applies equally to net fisheries, and we are therefore assessing options and regulatory mechanisms to make further progress to achieve this. Options include:- a) reducing exploitation by lave net and draft nets. b) reducing exploitation in the historic installations fisheries Both options are being thoroughly explored. 25