The Feasibility of Electronic and/or Casino Gaming in Kansas

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1 hristiansen apital dvisors LLC 170 Sawyer Road New Gloucester, ME Phone: Fax: The Feasibility of Electronic and/or Casino Gaming in Kansas Prepared by: Sebastian Sinclair, President, Christiansen Capital Advisors, LLC Prepared for: The Kansas Lottery March 16, 2006

2 hristiansen apital dvisors LLC Cumberland Hall 41 Campus Drive Suite 101 New Gloucester, ME Phone: Fax: Mr. Keith Kocher Assistant Attorney General Kansas Lottery 128 North Kansas Avenue Topeka, Kansas Voice: (785) Mr. Kocher: Re: The Feasibility of Electronic and/or Casino Gaming in Kansas The consulting team of Christiansen Capital Advisors, LLC (CCA) is pleased to submit our supplemental report on the feasibility of electronic and/or casino gaming in Kansas. We appreciate the opportunity to work with you and your staff, and if we can be of further assistance please do not hesitate to contact us. Sincerely, Sebastian Sinclair President

3 Table of Contents 1. ANALYSIS OF CURRENT AND COMPARABLE MARKETS... 1 METHODOLOGY... 1 ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT KANSAS MARKET... 3 Missouri Riverboats... 3 Indian Gaming... 4 COMPARABLE MARKETS... 4 Cincinnati... 5 Evansville... 5 Louisville... 6 Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun... 6 St. Louis...7 Council Bluffs... 7 Dubuque... 7 Quad Cities... 8 Marquette... 8 Des Moines ESTIMATED REVENUES FROM EXPANDED GAMING TWO RESORTS AND SLOT MACHINES AT FOUR (4) TRACKS Kansas City Cherokee/Crawford County Dodge City Woodlands Wichita Greyhound Park FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS SCENARIO 1: THREE RESORTS, SLOT MACHINES AT TRACKS, AND MACHINES AT FRATERNAL ORGANIZATIONS Large Destination Casino(s) Kansas City... 22

4 Table of Figures EXHIBIT 1.1 WESTERN MISSOURI RIVERBOATS ($S IN MILLIONS)... 4 EXHIBIT 1.2 INDIAN GAMING IN KANSAS... 4 EXHIBIT 1.3 CINCINNATI MARKET: REVENUES, AMENITIES, AND PROPERTY PERFORMANCE... 5 EXHIBIT 1.4 EVANSVILLE MARKET: REVENUES, AMENITIES, AND PROPERTY PERFORMANCE... 5 EXHIBIT 1.5 LOUISVILLE MARKET: REVENUES, AMENITIES, AND PROPERTY PERFORMANCE... 6 EXHIBIT 1.6 FOXWOODS/MOHEGAN SUN MARKET: REVENUES, AMENITIES, AND PROPERTY PERFORMANCE 6 EXHIBIT 1.7 ST. LOUIS MARKET: REVENUES, AMENITIES, AND PROPERTY PERFORMANCE... 7 EXHIBIT 1.8 COUNCIL BLUFFS MARKET: REVENUES, AMENITIES, AND PROPERTY PERFORMANCE... 7 EXHIBIT 1.9 DUBUQUE MARKET: REVENUES, AMENITIES, AND PROPERTY PERFORMANCE... 8 EXHIBIT 1.10 QUAD CITIES MARKET: REVENUES, AMENITIES, AND PROPERTY PERFORMANCE... 8 EXHIBIT 1.11 MARQUETTE MARKET: REVENUES, AMENITIES, AND PROPERTY PERFORMANCE... 8 EXHIBIT 1.12 DES MOINES MARKET: REVENUES, AMENITIES, AND PROPERTY PERFORMANCE... 9 EXHIBIT 1.13 SIOUX CITY MARKET: REVENUES, AMENITIES, AND PROPERTY PERFORMANCE... 9 EXHIBIT 2.1 REVENUE PROJECTIONS FOR A QUALITY DESTINATION RESORT IN KANSAS CITY EXHIBIT 2.2 KANSAS SPEEDWAY DESTINATION RESORT PRIMARY MARKET AREA COMPETITION MAP EXHIBIT 2.31 REVENUE PROJECTIONS FOR A CHEROKEE/CRAWFORD COUNTY AREA DESTINATION RESORT EXHIBIT 2.32 CHEROKEE/CRAWFORD COUNTY DESTINATION RESORT PRIMARY MARKET AREA COMPETITION MAP EXHIBIT 2.6 REVENUE PROJECTIONS FOR A RACINO IN DODGE CITY EXHIBIT 2.7 DODGE CITY RACINO PRIMARY MARKET AREA COMPETITION MAP EXHIBIT 2.8 REVENUE PROJECTIONS FOR 800 SLOT MACHINES AT WOODLANDS RACETRACK EXHIBIT 2.9 WOODLANDS PRIMARY MARKET AREA COMPETITION MAP EXHIBIT 2.10 REVENUE PROJECTIONS FOR 800 SLOT MACHINES AT WICHITA GREYHOUND PARK EXHIBIT 2.11 WICHITA GREYHOUND PARK PRIMARY MARKET AREA COMPETITION MAP EXHIBIT 3.1 SCENARIO 1 REVENUE PROJECTIONS... 22

5 1. Analysis of Current and Comparable Markets The Kansas Lottery has asked CCA to submit a supplemental study of expanded gambling from its earlier report conducted in January and February of The purpose of our earlier study, and of this subsequent update, is to provide independent information about the market potential for expanded gaming in Kansas. Since completing this earlier study, SB 587 was introduced through the Senate Federal and State Affairs Committee. The Lottery asked CCA to revise its models based upon the locations of gaming facilities and restrictions on number of gaming devices described in this proposed legislation. METHODOLOGY We begin by restating the CCA methodology for studies of this kind. 1 In this study CCA utilized proprietary models it has used in previous studies, 2 modified to take into account specific market conditions in Kansas and surrounding areas, to develop projections for the market potential of expanded gaming in the State. The model chosen, which is used by most economists in location-based analyses of this type, is often referred to as a "gravity model," because it is similar to Newton's Law of Gravitation (for which the distance factor would be -2.0: if you double the distance, the attraction declines by a factor of four). This model for machine and table gaming has been refined by CCA over the past 20 years, as it relates to gaming facilities; the technique focuses on the demographics of areas surrounding each facility, in particular the number of adults residing at various distances, and the observed ratio of actual spending of other similar adult populations. Our model assesses, and projects, gambling revenues based upon the distribution and characteristics of the adult population surrounding each facility. The model includes as factors or variables: distance, per capita income, urban/rural population components, the non-resident "visitor" population, and competition. These factors or variables are weighted and aggregated to generate projections. CCA models markets in the United States down to adult population by zip code, and in Canada by postal FSA. This provides a more accurate assessment of geographic distribution of populations, particularly important in markets that have several competing gambling facilities. As noted above, an important component of CCA s analysis is a verifiable adult spending base for slot machines. We assess the experience of existing casino, riverboat, and/or pari-mutuel gaming device facilities ( racinos ) in both the market being modeled and in comparable markets and use this experience as the basis for estimates of the consumer demand for a proposed gambling facility and, when necessary, its potential impacts upon existing gambling facilities. CCA s analyses are based upon observed, verifiable distance-adjusted spending per adult in comparable gambling markets, providing a factual basis for projections. 1 Although we have restated much of our methodology and assumptions regarding our analysis of the Kansas market in this supplemental report, we encourage readers to read this supplement in conjunction with our full report, which describes this analysis in greater detail. 2 CCA has conducted similar studies for the Federal National Gambling Impact Study Commission, and in Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Iowa, Massachusetts, Florida, New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island, California, Maryland, and a variety of other North American markets.

6 Page 2 The models used for the projections in this report adjust the population surrounding each facility (or proposed facility) for distance, per capita income, and the proportion of urban to rural residents, the non-resident "visitor" population, and competition. From these data we calculate an adjusted adult population around each facility, or group of facilities. This measure weights the adults who live closest to a facility at higher values than those who live at greater distances. Total actual or estimated revenues (or consumer spending) in each market is divided by these adjusted population figures to arrive at revenue per distance adjusted adult. 3 Our projections of demand and potential revenues are based on an important observation: other things being equal, gambling patrons overwhelmingly tend to gamble at the facility that is most conveniently located for them. "Convenience" is a quality with multiple parameters where gambling is concerned. For example, in markets served by pari-mutuel machines and cruising riverboats, land based pari-mutuel machines, with continuous hours of operation, prove (other things being equal) to be more convenient than identical riverboat machines with start-and-stop cruise schedules. Convenience of access is also another key consideration. Most regional gambling markets are served by automobile or bus, and during peak times bottlenecks can, and often do, occur. The analysis presented in this report, therefore, does not draw sharp geographical distinctions between markets within Kansas. Casino patrons sometimes do visit more distant facilities, particularly if there is a critical mass of casinos or amenities that they cannot find at the nearest facility. But other things being equal, slot machines, VLTs, table games and non-casino machine games generally are commodities: geographic proximity tends to outweigh other factors in consumer choice among competing suppliers. The gravity model appears to accurately reflect patterns of gambling consumption in Kansas. Because the public tends to gamble at the facility that is most conveniently located, patronage (and associated spending) at full-service casino gambling resort facilities falls off with distance, but less rapidly than for many other forms of gambling (and other leisure spending). For landbased destination casino resorts with the proper mix of amenities, we assume (based upon previous research and CCA s experience) a "distance coefficient 4 of -0.5, compared to values of around -0.6 for average facilities such as dockside casinos, stand-alone slot facilities and large racinos and about -0.7 for limited size and/or otherwise restricted gaming device facilities. These coefficients mean that casino patronage rises with increased proximity to a gaming facility in differing degrees. 5 As noted, because slot machines and table games are commodities, distance is the predominant determinant of casino patronage (and, hence, we assume, of spending of other kinds at gambling facilities). Distance not only determines the overall level of per capita expenditures in the marketplace; it weighs heavily in consumer choice 3 As noted above, these populations are adjusted for several other factors as well; however, the most significant variable, in terms of casino spending, is distance. Hence we refer to these populations as distance adjusted. 4 The "distance factors" estimated for these models are, technically, the "elasticities" of spending with respect to distance. Based upon survey data from several jurisdictions, rates of casino visitation appear to decline in proportion to about the 0.5 to 0.6 power of the distance to the casino, yielding distance factors of about 0.5 to 0.6. This is a relatively "long-distance" attraction; if distance is doubled, visitation (and hence, we assume, spending) declines by only about 30 percent. 5 Some researchers refer to these phenomena as attraction and friction. Attraction, as measured by CCA s distance coefficient, is the relative draw of the facility from regional markets. Friction, as measured in our models, is primarily distance, but includes other limiting factors as well, such as per capita income.

7 Page 3 among competing suppliers. With relatively few exceptions, the evidence from other markets overwhelmingly indicates that consumer expenditures on casino games will flow to the closest supplier to any given market. 6 As previously noted, our models also incorporate the estimated effects of per capita income. We assume that for counties with per capita money incomes below regional averages, slot machine spending declines with income with an elasticity of 0.5. We do not assume any increase in urban/rural mix (urban residents typically spend more). ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT KANSAS MARKET As noted in our previous report, Kansas has four casinos on Indian land and is a supplier of patrons and personal income to casinos in nearby States. CCA evaluated these neighboring State casino markets, and some comparable markets located in other parts of the U.S., using the criteria discussed in the forgoing section of this report. This evaluation provides a baseline for assessing the relative saturation of the current Kansas market, in terms of gaming revenue and visitation in Kansas generally and by distinct geographic market (zip codes). Currently, demand for casino gambling in the State of Kansas is primarily supplied by the four Kansas tribal gaming facilities and by riverboats in Missouri. 7 Adjusting for distance, competition, per capita income and the other variables described in the methodology section, CCA calculated the distance-adjusted 8 populations surrounding each of these gaming facilities. Dividing actual (reported, or in the case of the four Indian casinos, estimated) gaming revenue, or consumer spending, in these markets by the distance-adjusted population results in estimates of spending per distance-adjusted adult. Missouri Riverboats Exhibit 1.1 presents revenues and summary statistics for the four riverboat casinos that supply the demand for gaming in Kansas. The two largest, Ameristar and Harrah s North Kansas City, generated $444.6 million in gross gaming revenue in These two riverboat facilities contain a total of 4,830 slot machines, 170 table games, and 384 hotel rooms. The gross gaming revenue generated by all four boats totaled $688.6 million in CCA estimates that 37.1%, or approximately $255.4 million of this $688.6 million, was contributed by Kansas residents. 6 The most well known exception would be Las Vegas. The Las Vegas market is unique both in terms of the scale of development and of the attractions it has evolved, which enable it to exploit a truly global market. Due to this infusion of personal income from other States and countries, and because, to some extent, Nevada residents are a "self-selected population" with a bias towards gambling, Nevada spending ratios are very high. We do not believe that they are representative of any other jurisdiction. 7 Inevitably some leakage to destination resort casinos in Nevada, the Caribbean and other popular tourist destinations will occur, but we assume that is not significant in Kansas. We estimate that approximately 4% of spending will be diverted to these facilities in other markets. 8 As we have previously noted, our populations are also adjusted for several other factors. We refer to these populations as distance adjusted for simplicity s sake, and because distance is, generally, the most important variable.

8 Page 4 Exhibit 1.1 Western Missouri Riverboats ($s in millions) CY 2005 Total Slot Number of Slot Machines Win Per Slot Per Day Table Number of Tables Win Per Table Per Day Square Footage Hotel Rooms Restaurants Ameristar $252.8 $ ,005 $202.9 $ $ , Harrah's , , , Isle of Capri , , Argosy , , , $688.6 $ ,161 $202.7 $ $ , Source: Missouri Gaming Commission Adjusting the surrounding populations for distance, income and other factors incorporated into our model yields an average rate of spending per distance-adjusted adult of $ This figure can be interpreted as the average amount an adult within 10 miles of each of these markets spends per year on slot machines and table games. For the reasons discussed earlier, average adult per capita spending declines as distance increases. Indian Gaming As previous report illustrates, casino gaming on tribal land is a substantial business in Kansas, accounting for an estimated $237.6 million in consumer spending in In the aggregate, Kansas s four tribal casinos have 140,878 square feet of casino floor, 2,810 slot machines, and 55 tables. Exhibit 1.2 Indian Gaming in Kansas CY 2005 Total Slot Number of Slot Machines Win Per Slot Per Day Table Number of Tables Win Per Table Per Day Square Footage Hotel Rooms Restaurants Harrah's $131.3 $ ,173 $255.6 $ $2, , Golden Eagle , , Sac and Fox , White Cloud , $237.6 $ ,810 $193.0 $ $1, , Source: Christiansen Capital Advisors, LLC estimates Applying our gravity model to this market, thereby adjusting the surrounding populations for distance, income, and other factors results in an average rate of spending per distance adjusted adult of $641. COMPARABLE MARKETS To determine a projected maximum for per-adult spending in Kansas markets, CCA modeled similar mature markets in other jurisdictions, specifically: Cincinnati, Ohio; Evansville, Indiana; Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun in Eastern Connecticut, Council Bluffs, Iowa; St. Louis, Missouri; Louisville, Kentucky; Dubuque, Iowa; Quad Cities (Iowa, Illinois); and Marquette, Iowa.

9 Page 5 Cincinnati The Cincinnati, Ohio market is served by three riverboats located in nearby Indiana. In the aggregate, the Cincinnati market s three riverboat casinos have 152,300 square feet of casino floor, 5,492 slot machines, 185 tables, 15 restaurants and 1,115 hotel rooms. These three riverboats generated $749.0 million in gross gaming revenue in FY Exhibit 1.3 presents relevant data for each facility. Exhibit 1.3 Cincinnati Market: s, Amenities, and Property Performance FY 2005 Slot Number of Slot Win Per Slot Machines Per Day Table Number of Table Games Win Per Table Per Day Square Footage Hotel Rooms Restaurants Argosy $444.5 $ ,396 $425 $ $2, , Grand Victoria , , , Belterra , , , $749.0 $ ,492 $229 $ $1, ,300 1, Source: Indiana Gaming Commission Applying our gravity model to this market, thereby adjusting the surrounding populations for distance, income, and other factors results in an average rate of spending per distanceadjusted adult of $ Appendix B of our previous report presents a map of the Cincinnati market and details of the model. Evansville The Evansville market is served by one riverboat. This facility has 38,360 square feet of casino floor, 1,378 slot machines, 49 tables, six restaurants, and 250 hotel rooms. It generated $122.1 million in gross gaming revenue in FY Exhibit 1.4 presents relevant data for the facility. Exhibit 1.4 Evansville Market: s, Amenities, and Property Performance FY 2005 Slot Number of Slot Machines Win Per Slot Per Day Table Number of Table Games Win Per Table Per Day Square Footage Hotel Rooms Restaurants Aztar $122.1 $ ,378 $205 $ $1, , $122.1 $ ,378 $205 $ $1, , Source: Indiana Gaming Commission Applying the gravity model to this market, thereby adjusting the surrounding populations for distance, income, and other factors results in an average rate of spending per distance adjusted adult of $ Appendix B of our previous report presents a map of this market and details of the model.

10 Page 6 Louisville The Louisville market is served by one riverboat. This facility has 93,000 square feet of casino floor, 2,349 slot machines, 141 tables, 10 restaurants, and 503 hotel rooms. It generated $296.8 million in gross gaming revenue in FY Exhibit 1.5 presents relevant data for the facility. Exhibit 1.5 Louisville Market: s, Amenities, and Property Performance FY 2005 Slot Number of Slot Win Per Slot Machines Per Day Table Number of Table Games Win Per Table Per Day Square Footage Hotel Rooms Restaurants Caesars $296.8 $ ,349 $276 $ $1, , $296.8 $ ,349 $276 $ $1, , Source: Indiana Gaming Commission Applying the gravity model to this market, thereby adjusting the surrounding populations for distance, income, and other factors results in an average rate of spending per distance adjusted adult of $423. Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun By far the largest component of Connecticut's extensive gambling industry is casino gaming. Connecticut's two casinos, located approximately 10 miles apart in the Ledyard/Montville area in the southeastern region of the State, constitute the largest destination gaming resort attraction between Atlantic City, more than 270 miles to the south, and Ontario's two large provincial casinos (at Windsor and Niagara Falls) on the U.S./Canadian border and the nearby Seneca Niagara facility in New York State. Exhibit 1.6 Foxwoods/Mohegan Sun Market: s, Amenities, and Property Performance Slot Number of Slot Machines Win Per Slot Per Day Table Number of Table Games Win Per Table Per Day Square Footage Hotel Rooms Restaurants Mohegan Sun $1,128.0 $ ,300 $358 $ $3, ,000 1, Foxwoods 1, ,451 $ $2, ,000 1, $2,251.0 $1, ,751 $327 $ $2, ,000 3, Source: Connecticut Department of Special ; Christiansen Capital Advisors, LLC estimates. Exhibit 1.6 presents consumer spending (gross gaming revenue) on casino gaming at the two Connecticut casino facilities in FY Gross gaming revenue increased from approximately $346 million in 1993 to approximately $2.251 billion in FY Applying the gravity model to this market, thereby adjusting the surrounding populations for distance, income, and other factors results in an average rate of spending per distance adjusted adult of $

11 Page 7 St. Louis The St. Louis, Missouri market is served by five riverboats. In the aggregate, the St. Louis market s five riverboat casinos have 374,000 square feet of casino floor, 10,114 slot machines, 222 tables, 24 restaurants, and 713 hotel rooms. These riverboats, which are no longer required to cruise, generated $942.6 million in gross gaming revenue in FY Exhibit 1.7 presents relevant data for each facility. Exhibit 1.7 St. Louis Market: s, Amenities, and Property Performance Slot Number of Slot Machines Win Per Slot Per Day Table Number of Table Games Win Per Table Per Day Square Footage Hotel Rooms Restaurants Ameristar $296.9 $ ,274 $224 $ $2, , Harrah's , , , Casino Queen, IL , , , Alton, IL , , , President , , $942.6 $ ,114 $225 $ $1, , Source: Missouri Gaming Commission Applying the gravity model to this market, thereby adjusting the surrounding populations for distance, income, and other factors results in an average rate of spending per distance adjusted adult of $ Council Bluffs The Council Bluffs, Iowa market is served by two riverboats and one dog track. In the aggregate, the three Council Bluffs facilities have 112,209 square feet of casino floor, 4,388 slot machines, 77 tables, 12 restaurants and 411 hotel rooms. These facilities generated $431.1 million in gross gaming revenue in FY Exhibit 1.8 presents relevant data for each facility. Exhibit 1.8 Council Bluffs Market: s, Amenities, and Property Performance Slot Number of Slot Machines Win Per Slot Per Day Table Number of Table Games Win Per Table Per Day Square Footage Hotel Rooms Restaurants Ameristar $180.1 $ ,569 $276 $ $1, , Bluffs Run , n/a n/a n/a 45, Harrah's Council Bluffs , , , $431.1 $ ,388 $243 $ $1, , Source: Iowa Racing and Gaming Commission Applying the gravity model to this market, thereby adjusting the surrounding populations for distance, income, and other factors results in an average rate of spending per distanceadjusted adult of $840. Dubuque The Dubuque, Iowa market is served by one riverboat and one dog track. In the aggregate, the 2 Dubuque market facilities have 29,488 square feet of casino floor, 1,307 slot machines, 19 tables, and seven restaurants. These facilities generated $91 million in gross gaming revenue in FY Exhibit 1.9 presents relevant data for each facility.

12 Page 8 Exhibit 1.9 Dubuque Market: s, Amenities, and Property Performance Slot Number of Slot Win Per Slot Table Number of Win Per Table Square Machines Per Day Table Games Per Day Footage Diamond Jo $49.7 $ $168 $ $ ,813 Dubuque Greyhound ,675 $91.0 $84.8 1,307 $178 $ $ ,488 Source: Iowa Racing and Gaming Commission Applying the gravity model to this market, thereby adjusting the surrounding populations for distance, income, and other factors results in an average rate of spending per distanceadjusted adult of $701. Quad Cities The Quad Cities, Iowa market is served by three riverboats. In the aggregate, the Quad Cities market s three riverboat casinos have 73,139 square feet of casino floor, 2,848 slot machines, 62 tables, six restaurants, and 483 hotel rooms. These riverboats generated $221.2 million in gross gaming revenue in FY Exhibit 1.10 presents relevant data for each facility. Exhibit 1.10 Quad Cities Market: s, Amenities, and Property Performance Slot Number of Slot Win Per Slot Table Number of Win Per Table Square Hotel Machines Per Day Table Games Per Day Footage Rooms Restaurants Isle of Capri Bettendorf $103.9 $93.7 1,096 $234 $ $ , Rhythm City , , Jumer's Rock Isle IL , $221.2 $ ,848 $196 $ $ , Source: Iowa Racing and Gaming Commission; Illinois Gaming Board Applying the gravity model to this market, thereby adjusting the surrounding populations for distance, income, and other factors results in an average rate of spending per distanceadjusted adult of $794. Marquette The Marquette, Iowa market is served by one riverboat. The Marquette riverboat casino has 18,747 square feet of casino floor, 779 slot machines, 14 tables, and 24 hotel rooms. The riverboat generated $43.1 million in gross gaming revenue in FY Exhibit 1.11 presents relevant data for this riverboat. Exhibit 1.11 Marquette Market: s, Amenities, and Property Performance Slot Number of Slot Win Per Slot Table Number of Win Per Table Square Hotel Machines Per Day Table Games Per Day Footage Rooms Isle of Capri Marquette $43.1 $ $141 $ $ , $43.1 $ $141 $ $ , Source: Iowa Racing and Gaming Commission

13 Page 9 Applying the gravity model to this market, thereby adjusting the surrounding populations for distance, income, and other factors results in the average rate of spending per distanceadjusted adult of $690. Des Moines The Des Moines, Iowa market is served by one racetrack casino, Prairie Meadows. Prairie Meadows has 59,363 square feet of casino floor, 1,487 slot machines, 42 tables, and one restaurant. Prairie Meadows generated $174.4 million in gross gaming revenue in FY Exhibit 1.12 presents relevant data for the facility in table form. Exhibit 1.12 Des Moines Market: s, Amenities, and Property Performance Slot Number of Slot Win Per Slot Table Number of Win Per Table Square Machines Per Day Table Games Per Day Footage Restaurants Prairie Meadows $174.4 $ ,487 $304 $ $ ,363 1 $174.4 $ ,487 $304 $ $ ,363 1 Source: Iowa Racing and Gaming Commission Applying the gravity model to this market, thereby adjusting the surrounding populations for distance, income, and other factors results in an average rate of spending per distanceadjusted adult of $594. Sioux City The Sioux City, Iowa market is served by one riverboat, Argosy Casino. The facility has 36,000 square feet of casino floor, 601 slot machines, 19 tables, and one restaurant. The facility generated $54.8 million in gross gaming revenue in FY Exhibit 1.13 presents relevant data for the facility in table form. Exhibit 1.13 Sioux City Market: s, Amenities, and Property Performance Slot Number of Slot Win Per Slot Table Number of Win Per Table Square Machines Per Day Table Games Per Day Footage Restaurants Argosy Casino Sioux City $54.8 $ $220 $ $ ,000 1 $54.8 $ $220 $ $ ,000 1 Source: Iowa Racing and Gaming Commission Applying the gravity model to this market, thereby adjusting the surrounding populations for distance, income, and other factors results in an average rate of spending per distanceadjusted adult of $660.

14 Page Estimated s from Expanded Gaming Previous sections of this report analyze current spending patterns in Kansas and in comparable markets. Using the modeling procedure and methodology described in Section 1, we are able to develop projections for expanded gaming in the State of Kansas. The Kansas Lottery asked CCA to evaluate a specific scenario for expanded gaming in this supplemental report: 1. Two destination-style casinos (with ancillary restaurants, gifts shops, taverns, etc.), with one located in Wyandotte County and one in Crawford or Cherokee County. For purposes of the analysis, we have been asked to assume a cumulative minimum $200 million capital investment in the casino and ancillary businesses at each location; 2. A total of 5,000 slot machines at four different pari-mutuel tracks, distributed as follows: a. Woodlands 1,500 b. Wichita Greyhound Park 1,500 c. Camptown 1,200 d. Dodge City pari-mutuel track (to be constructed) 800 For the purposes of our initial study and this subsequent update we reviewed the Oklahoma State-Tribal Gaming Act of 2004 and the Rules for Authorized Gaming at the Racetracks adopted by the Oklahoma Horse Racing Commission on March 17, In the course of conducting research into Oklahoma gaming we also spoke with the Bally Gaming & Systems unit of Alliance Gaming regarding the design, operation of and likely performance of the games now permitted in Oklahoma. We have relied on these materials and research in making assumptions concerning the likely performance characteristics of Oklahoma gaming machines. In our understanding, there are five categories or classes of authorized games in Oklahoma: Electronic Amusement Games as defined in the State-Tribal Gaming Act, Electronic Bonanza-Style Bingo Games as defined in the State-Tribal Gaming Act; Electronic Instant Bingo Games as defined in the State-Tribal Gaming Act, Compact Electronic Gaming Machines or devices as defined in the Rules for Authorized Gaming at the Racetracks adopted by the Oklahoma Horse Racing Commission on March 17, 2005, and non-house banked table games. The first of these categories or classes of authorized games, electronic amusement game, means a game that is played in an electronic environment in which a player s performance and opportunity for success can be improved by skill. 9 CCA assumed that video poker would qualify as an authorized game under this definition, and that the performance of video poker games in Oklahoma would be similar to video poker games in other jurisdictions. The second and third categories or classes of authorized games, electronic bonanza-style bingo games as defined in the State-Tribal Gaming Act and electronic instant bingo games as defined in the State-Tribal Gaming Act, mean the machine versions of bingo that meet the definition of Class II games under the Federal Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA) and have 9 Oklahoma State-Tribal Gaming Act of 2004, Oklahoma Revised Statutes, 3A-271 paragraph A.

15 Page 11 been in use in tribal gaming facilities in Oklahoma for some time. Generally, such Class II bingo games require more than one player (i.e., there must be at least two players, playing a version of bingo against each other rather than against the house or the machine), who must perform more than one action, as, for example, press a daub button two times ( two-tap ) in trying or playing the Class II device. CCA assumed that the performance of electronic bingo games in Oklahoma would be similar to the performance of comparable electronic Class II bingo games at tribal gaming facilities in other jurisdictions. The fourth category or class of authorized games, compact electronic gaming machines or devices, means games permitted in Oklahoma tribal gaming facilities pursuant to the model compacts between tribes and the State of Oklahoma. In CCA s understanding, compact electronic games differ from electronic bingo games in several significant respects. Compact electronic games need not be versions of, or based upon, bingo. While determination is at a central server and not at the machine (as is the case with a traditional slot machine), there is no multi-player requirement: players of compact electronic games may play against the machine, rather than (as with Class II games) against each other. Further, in playing compact electronic games a single action suffices ( one-tap ), which increases the speed of play. 10 These parameters are sufficiently broad that compact electronic games in Oklahoma should closely approximate slot machine games, 11 and CCA assumed that the performance of these devices will be somewhat similar to the performance of slot machines. The fifth category or class of authorized games, non-house banked table games, comprises Class III games including poker and non-house banked blackjack. Craps and roulette (which are necessarily banked by the house) are not allowed. In this category of games players compete against one another rather than against the house. Despite our careful review of the machines and games that are now being allowed in Oklahoma, readers should bear in mind that our estimates of the revenue from these gaming machines constitutes CCA s best guess as to the potential of these games and devices. The compacted devices that are now allowed in Oklahoma under these recently adopted rules are unique in America, and probably, for that matter, in the world. While these machines bear some similarity to devices operating in West Virginia, Iowa, North Carolina, Washington State, and Florida they are not exactly like any of the devices in these markets. Furthermore, these devices have still not been widely deployed in Oklahoma. Remington Park opened its gaming facility in November of 2005, and at present many tribal facilities have many fewer machines than were expected at the time of the recent change in Oklahoma law. Some commentators have theorized that Oklahoma tribes are delaying the deployment of compacted games due to the fact that tribes are required to share 4%-6% of the revenue derived from these machines with the State of Oklahoma. 12 Should casino gaming come to Kansas, however, we would expect Oklahoma tribes to quickly replace the less attractive Class II games with more competitive compacted devices. 10 In other words, there is no daub feature, as is required in Class II games. 11 Industry suppliers refer to these games as Class 2.9, a euphemism describing the play experience of compacted electronic games in terms of a scale from a Class II (Bingo) machine to a Class III (traditional slot) machine. 12 Compared to other classes of machines that, under IGRA and existing compacts, Oklahoma tribes are not required to share revenue with the State of Oklahoma.

16 Page 12 Given the new games allowed in Oklahoma under these new rules and the short period of time that they have been available in that State it is impossible to estimate with precision the attractiveness of these devices to gaming patrons, and, consequently, their likely performance. The more a machine game resembles a traditional three-reel gaming device ( slot machine ) in look and feel, the more it plays like a slot machine, the better it will perform in the market place. Devices that play and feel like traditional slot machines should perform very well in Oklahoma, regardless of their legal status under the rules currently in force. We note, however, that machines recently installed at Oklahoma racetracks appear to be performing significantly below projections, and significant limitations on the type of machine and table games remain. Assuming Kansas does not restrict its gaming operators in a similar manner its expanded gaming facilities should enjoy a competitive advantage over Oklahoma facilities. Given these uncertainties, we have assumed a worst case scenario: that Oklahoma facilities are (or, rather, will be) directly comparable to proposed gaming facilities in Kansas. This may or may not turn out to be true in practice, but the assumption is conservative in that should Oklahoma gaming under-perform there would be direct benefit to gaming facilities on the Kansas side of the border. The following sections present our findings for this scenario. TWO RESORTS AND SLOT MACHINES AT FOUR (4) TRACKS CCA estimated the revenue potential of two destination casinos (in Kansas City, and in Cherokee or Crawford County), Four (4) racinos (at the Woodlands, Wichita Greyhound Park, Camptown and a to-be-built facility in Dodge City), by overlaying the proposed approximate locations onto the model developed in Section 1. Kansas City With 1.3 million people within a fifty-mile radius the Kansas City market is a robust market for casino entertainment. It is important to remember, however, that the Kansas City market is a competed one. With four Indian casinos 60 miles to the north and northwest which CCA estimates generated $237.6 million in gross gaming revenue and four riverboats containing 8,161 slot machines and 246 table games and generating gross gaming revenue of $688.6 million on the Missouri side of the river (in addition the St. Joseph boat located 45 miles to the north with 585 machines and 11 table games, which generated $29.9 million), there is little unsatisfied demand for gaming in this market. A new casino in Kansas City would compete with these existing casinos for market share. The creation of a quality destination resort would thus be of the utmost importance. Destination resorts are more attractive than less capital-intensive gaming facilities and draw customers from greater distances, thereby taking share in competed markets. Exhibit 2.1 presents revenue projections for a Kansas City casino assuming a quality destination resort that offers attractions in addition to gaming and is otherwise well positioned in the market. The result is gross gaming revenue of $258.6 million.

17 Page 13 Exhibit 2.1 Projections for a Quality Destination Resort in Kansas City Distance Range Adult Population Distance, Income, and Competitive Factors Total s Spending per Person , % $72.9 $ , % , % , % , % Out of Market 4.0% 10.3 Total 1,966,685 $258.6 Source: Christiansen Capital Advisors, LLC Spending Base: $ Exhibit 2.1 presents a map of the Kansas destination resort primary market area. Exhibit 2.2 Kansas Speedway Destination Resort Primary Market Area Competition Map Source: Christiansen Capital Advisors, LLC Cherokee/Crawford County In Section 2 CCA identified the Cherokee/Crawford County area of Kansas as a viable location for a destination resort. Approximately halfway between Tulsa, Oklahoma and Springfield,

18 Page 14 Missouri, two currently underserved markets, there are over a million adults within 75 miles of this location 13. CCA estimates that a quality destination resort in the Cherokee/Crawford County area could generate gross gaming revenues of $183.8 million (Exhibit 2.3). Exhibit 2.3 Projections for a Cherokee/Crawford County Area Destination Resort Distance Income and Estimated Adult Competitive Spending/ Total Adjusted Contributions: Population Factors Person s Population , % $ , , % , , % , , % , , % , ,769, % , , % , ,330, % , ,096, % Out of Market 4.0% 7.0 Total 7,420,043 $ ,798 Spending Base: $ / person (within 7 miles) Source: Christiansen Capital Advisors, LLC As is noted elsewhere in this report, changes in Oklahoma gaming currently underway significantly impact the prospects for a casino in the southeastern corner of Kansas compared to our examination of this market in early Given the new types of games allowed in Oklahoma and the short period of time they have been operating it is impossible to estimate with precision their attractiveness to gaming patrons and how they would compete against traditional slot machines and house banked table games in Kansas. As noted also, however, Oklahoma limits the types of table and machine games it allows. Assuming Kansas does not similarly restrict operators Kansas gaming facilities should enjoy a competitive advantage over Oklahoma facilities. In light of these uncertainties we assumed a worst case scenario, in which Oklahoma facilities are directly comparable to gaming facilities in Kansas. This may very well turn out not to be the case in practice. If a casino in southeastern Kansas has better table and machine games than Oklahoma allows it could perform above the projections presented here. Exhibit 2.4 presents a map of the Cherokee/Crawford County destination resort primary market area assuming full competition from Oklahoma tribal facilities. 13 As noted elsewhere in this report, however, the Oklahoma gaming market is undergoing wholesale changes. As of this date (February 2006) many of these tribal facilities have not completed their expansions to the new compacted devices and are still utilizing less attractive Class II games. We do not expect this to be the case going forward.

19 Page 15 Exhibit 2.4 Cherokee/Crawford County Destination Resort Primary Market Area Competition Map Source: Christiansen Capital Advisors, LLC Dodge City A racino in Dodge City would represent a much smaller opportunity than a racino in either Wichita or Kansas City. CCA estimates the gross gaming revenue potential of a Dodge City racino at $27.2 million (Exhibit 2.5).

20 Page 16 Exhibit 2.6 Projections for 800 Machines for a Racino in Dodge City Distance Income and Distance Adult Competitive Spending/ Total Adjusted Range Population Factors Person s Population , % $ , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , ,076, % , , % , ,425, % ,861, % Out of Market 2.0% 0.5 Total 6,442,598 $ ,035 Source: Christiansen Capital Advisors, LLC Spending Base: $ Exhibit 2.7 presents a map of the Dodge City market. Exhibit 2.7 Dodge City Racino Primary Market Area Competition Map Source: Christiansen Capital Advisors, LLC

21 Page 17 Woodlands CCA was asked to assume that the Woodlands racetrack in Kansas City (10 miles from Kansas City Center) would have up to 2,000 slot machines. CCA estimates that with a resort casino in Kansas City and the status quo at tribal and Missouri-based gaming enterprises the Woodlands could generate $107.5 million in gross gaming revenue (Exhibit 2.8). Exhibit 2.8 Projections for 1,500 Slot Machines at Woodlands Racetrack Distance Range Adult Population Distance, Income, and Competitive Factors Total s Spending per Person , % $27.5 $ , % , % , % , % Out of Market 2.0% 1.7 Total 1,966,685 $88.2 Spending Base: $ Distance Range Adult Population Distance, Income, and Competitive Factors Total s Spending per Person , % $35.9 $ , % , % , % ,092, % Out of Market 2.0% 2.2 Total 2,795,829 $107.5 Spending Base: $ Source: Christiansen Capital Advisors, LLC Exhibit 2.9 presents a map of the Woodlands primary market area.

22 Page 18 Exhibit 2.9 Woodlands Primary Market Area Competition Map Source: Christiansen Capital Advisors, LLC Wichita Greyhound Park The Kansas Lottery asked us to assume that Wichita Greyhound Park would also have 2,000 slot machines. CCA estimates that Wichita Greyhound Park could generate $140.3 million in gross gaming revenue (Exhibit 2.10).

23 Page 19 Exhibit 2.10 Projections for 1,500 Slot Machines at Wichita Greyhound Park Distance Income and Estimated Adult Competitive Spending/ Total Adjusted Contributions: Population Factors Person s Population , % $ , , % , , % , , % , , % , % ,909, % ,013, % Out of Market 2.0% 2.8 Total 5,032,431 $ ,284 Spending Base: $ / person (within 7 miles) Source: Christiansen Capital Advisors, LLC Exhibit 2.11 presents a map of the Wichita Greyhound Park primary market area. Exhibit 2.11 Wichita Greyhound Park Primary Market Area Competition Map Source: Christiansen Capital Advisors, LLC

24 Page 20 Camptown The Kansas Lottery asked us to assume that Camptown racetrack in Pittsburg, Kansas would have 600 slot machines. CCA estimates that this racetrack could generate $31.1 million in gross gaming revenue from 600 slot machines (Exhibit 3.15). Exhibit 3.15 Projections for 1,200 Slot Machines at a Racetrack in Pittsburg, Kansas Distance Income and Estimated Adult Competitive Spending/ Total Adjusted Contributions: Population Factors Person s Population , % $ , , % , , % , , % , ,999, % , , % , , % Out of Market 2.0% 0.6 Total 5,149,916 $ ,988 Source: Christiansen Capital Advisors, LLC Spending Base: $ / person (within 7 miles) Exhibit 3.16 presents a map of the Pittsburg primary market area. Exhibit 3.16 Pittsburg Racetrack Primary Market Area Competition Map Source: Christiansen Capital Advisors, LLC

25 Page Findings and Recommendations The expansion of gaming in Kansas is a complex subject, with many variables for Kansas to consider. In its final report the Governor s Gaming Committee 14 warned that the State should guard against the proliferation of small, shabby slot parlors. The Committee further recommended that the State establish strict criteria to ensure that additional gaming facilities are high quality tourist destinations. In order to achieve this goal, the Committee strongly recommended that the State seek independent information about the market potential for expanded gaming. An understanding of the potential size of the Kansas gaming market is fundamental to the formulation of sound gaming policy in Kansas. CCA produced a similar study for the Kansas Lottery in March of Subsequently, significant changes have occurred in gaming outside Kansas. These changes make a revision of our earlier study necessary. The most significant of these changes is an expansion of gaming in neighboring Oklahoma. In the summer of 2004 the Oklahoma legislature enacted Senate Bill 553 (amended as Senate Bill 1252). This law called for a referendum on the State-Tribal Gaming Act, a model gaming compact 15 between the State and its Native American tribes. On November 2, 2004 the people approved this model compact by passing Ballot Question 712. The new law authorizes a significant expansion of gaming in Oklahoma. Most Oklahoma tribes have entered into compacts with the State and up to 750 compacted games are now allowed at Oklahoma s racetracks. Partly in view of the changes in Oklahoma, CCA was asked to make new recommendations to the Kansas Lottery concerning which city/cities and/or area(s) of the State expanded gaming could and/or should be located; the kind of gaming that should be authorized (i.e., under what assumptions or scenario(s); and the level of gaming activity each market will support.) In the following section CCA summarizes its findings concerning these questions. SCENARIO 1: THREE RESORTS, SLOT MACHINES AT TRACKS, AND MACHINES AT FRATERNAL ORGANIZATIONS Exhibit 3.1 presents our findings (from Section 3) regarding the revenue potential of three destination resorts, one each in Kansas City, Wichita, and Dodge City, along with slot machines at Kansas racetracks and at fraternal organizations. We estimate that under our assumptions destination resorts, racinos, and gaming devices at fraternal organizations would generate Statewide gross gaming revenue (or consumer spending) of $710.8 million Governor s Gaming Committee, Final Report, December 18, pp This compact is published in the Oklahoma Revised Statutes, Title 3a, Section 281.

26 Page 22 Exhibit 3.1 Scenario 1 Projections Potential Average Facilities Potential Destination Casinos Casinos Kansas City $216.6 $242.6 Dodge City Wichita Racinos Woodlands Wichita GH Anthony Eureka Camptown Source: Christiansen Capital Advisors, LLC Fraternal Organizations $681.7 $710.8 Large Destination Casino(s) A destination casino resort policy option would maximize the economic contributions of expanded gaming, i.e., jobs and the capital investment that creates jobs. The Kansas gaming market, particularly around Kansas City, is relatively congested. A large new casino anywhere in the State will compete for patronage with table and machine games not only in Kansas but at casinos elsewhere in the region as well. In these market conditions simply adding more machines and tables is not the optimum strategy. If a large new casino is to be built, CCA recommends that the emphasis should be placed on non-gaming attractions. Giving area residents good reasons to visit the new facility and spend time on the property that extend beyond the opportunity to engage in gaming will be critically important in determining return on investment ( ROI ) and, as important, the new facility s survival prospects in the almost certainly more competitive market conditions that will develop in the years to come. Taxes will be an important consideration in creating successful destination resorts. High rates of gambling privilege tax inhibit the ability of entrepreneurs to obtain financing for large developments; conversely, low tax rates encourage investment and therefore create jobs, as they have in Nevada, New Jersey, and Mississippi. The policy issues raised by gaming taxation are particularly acute, and there is no one right answer to these questions in every given situation. It is generally true, however, that high tax rates fill State coffers at the expense of economic development and jobs, while low tax rates encourage development and stimulate job creation at the expense of fiscal policy. The relationship of gambling privilege tax rates to jobs and capital investment is discussed in greater detail in a research paper prepared by CCA for the American Gaming Association (AGA). This research paper is available on the association s Web site. 16 Kansas City 16

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