FEBRUARY 21-22, 2015 DERBY COUNTDOWN CLICK AND JUMP TO DESIRED SECTION. Risen Star. Fountain of Youth. Southwest. Upstart Photo by Tom Keyser

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1 FEBRUARY 21-22, 2015 DERBY COUNTDOWN CLICK AND JUMP TO DESIRED SECTION Risen Star Fountain of Youth Southwest Upstart Photo by Tom Keyser

2 PREVIEW 1 Risen Star Preview: Tough spot for Imperia s 2015 debut By Dan Illman Risen Star won the Louisiana Derby Trial Stakes at one mile and 40 yards in 1988 en route to capturing the Preakness Stakes, the Belmont Stakes, and the Eclipse Award for champion 3-year-old male. The following year, the Louisiana Derby Trial was renamed the Risen Star. Since being moved to its current 1 1/16-mile distance in 1991, the Risen Star has produced some solid campaigners. War Emblem, sixth in the 2002 Risen Star, went on to grab the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. Lawyer Ron, the 2006 Risen Star winner, earned champion older male honors at 4. Mucho Macho Man scored the 2011 edition of the Risen Star and eventually succeeded in the 2013 Breeders Cup Classic. Imperia (5) is the morning-line favorite for this year s renewal. A beautifully bred son of Medaglia d Oro out of the multiple Grade 1 winner Cocoa Beach, Imperia ran extremely well in his first start on dirt in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs on Nov. 29. In that race, the speedy El Kabeir stole off to an uncontested early lead and a huge tactical advantage. Imperia came with a prolonged wide bid, dug in gamely in the stretch, and came within a head of catching El Kabeir at the wire. This will be Imperia s first start of the year, and one must wonder if trainer Kiaran McLaughlin will have him 100 percent cranked and ready to fire right out of the box. Imperia picks up Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith, who won last year s Risen Star with the ill-fated Intense Holiday. He should get some pace to attack, and will be running hard late. International Star (10) was one of three next-out winners produced from the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. He got his 3-year-old campaign started on the right foot by posting a rallying victory in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds on Jan. 17. He saved ground under Miguel Mena and was trapped behind runners in upper stretch. Once extricated from that position, International Star came with a good turn of foot to collar the leaders. He is still a bit green, as evidenced by his swapping leads a couple of times in the final furlong, and must avoid a wide trip from the far-outside post. Regardless, International Star boasts an upward Beyer profile and must be respected right back. Tiznow R J (2) should benefit from a learning trip in the Lecomte. He broke beautifully under Robby Albarado but was confronted early by shot Hero of Humor (7) and an eager Runhappy. In tight along the rail, Albarado eventually conceded the lead, and Tiznow R J was shuffled back a bit on the backstretch. Tiznow R J advanced three wide on the final turn, struck the front in upper stretch, and battled on gamely nearest the inside. Expect Tiznow R J to adopt rating tactics from the opening bell this time. His trainer, Steve Asmussen, won the Risen Star in 2008 with Pyro. War Story (6) has paired up Beyer tops in his two races at Fair Grounds this year, and he ran well when second in the Lecomte. Off a beat slowly, he raced four and five wide on the final turn. War Story couldn t fend off International Star s late flurry, but he emerged victorious in a good place battle with Tiznow R J. Given an alert break, War Story can be closer to the pace. Todd Pletcher has exceptional numbers with Fair Grounds invaders. He has won the Risen Star three times (Intense Holiday, 2014; El Padrino, 2012; Discreetly Mine, 2010) over the past five years and sends out the promising maiden winner J S Bach (4). Originally scheduled to compete in last Monday s Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn prior to that race being postponed due to weather, J S Bach was rerouted to Fair Grounds and seems well spotted in the Risen Star. He took advantage of a slow pace and a weak field to defeat 11 maidens at Gulfstream on Jan. 17, but that race earned a solid Beyer. Although J S Bach has early speed, he might end up in a tracking spot on the backstretch under new rider Rafael Bejarano. Keen Ice (8) looms an upset candidate. Third in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct last fall, Keen Ice made his seasonal debut against the talented south Florida 3-year-olds Upstart and Frosted in the Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes on Jan. 24. Although he couldn t get within shouting distance of Upstart, Keen Ice competed in a very fast race, and some might argue that he s getting minor class relief in the Risen Star. A late runner who should benefit from a scrum up front, Keen Ice could adore the long Fair Grounds stretch. His jockey, James Graham, upset the applecart in the 2013 Risen Star with Ive Struck a Nerve.

3 Bluff (3) hammered a maiden group at Fair Grounds on Jan. 22 and improved his Beyer 15 points in the process. He eased off the rail to challenge the leaders with a threewide burst on the turn. Once in front, Bluff turned the race into a procession, and was geared down inside the final sixteenth. A Tapit colt out of a full sister to Jockey Club Gold Cup and Pacific Classic winner Borrego, Bluff should continue to improve with experience and distance. He s trained by Larry Jones, who won the Risen Star in 2009 with Friesan Fire. St. Joe Bay (1) might end up the speed from the inside. Second behind the talented Prospect Park most recently in an entry-level optional claimer at Santa Anita, St. Joe Bay previously was fourth behind Calculator in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes. His lone win came in a maiden seller, and St. Joe Bay could face stiff pace pressure on the backstretch. Big Big Easy (9), fifth as the favorite in the $250,000 Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta Downs on Oct. 25, and Hero of Humor (7) complete the Risen Star field.

4 ANALYSIS 1 Risen Star Analysis By Dan Illman Distance: 1 1/16 miles on dirt Kentucky Derby qualifying points: PACE SCENARIO Early speed: St. Joe Bay, Hero of Humor Pace pressers: Tiznow R J, J S Bach, Big Big Easy Stalkers/midpack runners: War Story, International Star, Bluff Closers: Imperia, Keen Ice PACE ANALYSIS Expect a moderate to fast pace. Southern California raider St. Joe Bay will probably be sent hard from the gate. He s been the pacesetter in his last three races and should be prominent as the field enters the backstretch. While Tiznow R J and J S Bach both have early speed, they may concede the front to St. Joe Bay and opt for pace-tracking trips. They could attempt to get the jump on the late-runners on the final bend. War Story is pretty tactical. He may let the speeds go and settle into midpack under Kent Desormeaux. Imperia figures to lurk near the rear of the field under Mike Smith. The expected solid pace could play right into Smith s hands. FORMULATOR FACTS Trainer Steve Asmussen is with a $3.74 return on investment over the past three years with dirt routers returning from 61- to 180-day layoffs in graded stakes. That statistic applies to Big Big Easy, who will be the longer price of the two Asmussen-trained runners in the Risen Star It doesn t appear that J S Bach defeated a strong group in a maiden special weight at Gulfstream on Jan. 17. Three horses have returned from that race, but none hit the board next out. The best showing was a fourth-place effort by Frenchman Bay. He earned a 74 Beyer. On the other hand, Imperia exits a live race, the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs on Nov. 29. Not only did KJC fourth-place finisher International Star return to win the Grade 3 Lecomte at the Fair Grounds, but KJC winner El Kabeir and fifth-place finisher Lord Nelson also came back to win stakes races (with Beyers of 95 and 91, respectively). J S Bach s trainer, Todd Pletcher, has had great success at the Fair Grounds. He is with a $3.50 ROI over the past five years with 3-year-old males in graded stakes dirt routes here. Among them were Risen Star winners Intense Holiday (2011), Discreetly Mine (2010), and El Padrino (2012). According to the Moss Pace Ratings, Hero of Humor can be close to the lead. In his most recent race, he received a 94 first-call rating, a number that is +22 to par. SELECTIONS 1. Imperia 2. International Star 3. Keen Ice ELEVENTH RACE Probable Post 5:24 CST 1 1/16 Miles. 3-Year-Olds. RisenStr (Grade 2). Purse: $400,000 PP HORSE JOCKEY WT. M.L. 5 Imperia...Smith M E International Star...Mena M Tiznow R J...Albarado R J J S Bach...Bejarano R War Story...Desormeaux K J Keen Ice...Graham J St. Joe Bay...Geroux F Bluff...Clark K D Big Big Easy...Eramia R E Hero of Humor...Murgia A

5 CLOSER LOOK 1 Risen Star Closer Look ST. JOE BAY This sophomore got away with moderate splits in the Del Mar finale and still backed up. The son of Saint Anddan has bobbled at the break in his last two starts, and it may have taken something out of him. The horse who beat him last time had won his maiden in his prior start and overcame a rough trip to win. Trainer Peter Miller is second in the standings at Santa Anita, and his runners have been in the money at 49 percent at this meet. Miller also is 7 for 89, or 8 percent, over the last five years with shippers in graded stakes, with 20 others in the money. It would seem logical that rider Florent Geroux will try to take advantage of the rail and gun hard for the lead. The clever blowout Tuesday should have him on his toes, and a clean start will enhance his chances. TIZNOW R J A tough-beat neck loser in his debut, this runner was off slowly in his next out but was sensational in his local debut, where he controlled the pace and outcome, winning by more than 13 lengths with an 86 Beyer Speed Figure. He pushed the splits every step of the way in the Lecomte but settled for third. His sire was a two-time winner of the Breeders Cup Classic, and his dam won at this distance on grass. The lone sibling Bleu Brave won once, a 7 1/2-furlong grass event. The show horse in the maidenbreaker returned to earn a 75 Beyer in taking a maiden special weight race next out. More experienced than his stablemate, his tactical speed will give him first run on the deep closers. Not sure he was beaten by anybody in the Nov. 13 race, as the winner has been out of the money twice since. He must figure out a way to deal with the Lecomte exacta players. BLUFF It took a couple of races for this colt to figure it out, but that third time was a charm, as he won here last month, drawing away by nearly six lengths. He won geared down with plenty left in the tank and was eased up significantly in the final sixteenth. The show horse was nearly four clear of his nearest rival. Bluff s sire was a proven router, and his dam won once, a turf race at this distance. This is her first to race. The bullet work last Monday was posted by stablemate and double winner Lovely Maria. Jones is winning with everything that is not nailed down. He has saddled two horses in the last five years who came off a maiden win and went into a graded stakes. Both ran third at 12-1, and one was beaten a neck. A speed duel would help this runner in a bid to overtake the leaders late. J S BACH This colt made a three-wide bid in the debut and had to settle for the minor award. He adored the more real estate last time, and like the way he extended in the lane. The seventh finisher in the debut beat maiden $35K claimers next, and the place horse took a maiden special weight race next and then was third, beaten nearly seven lengths, in a $75,000 optional claimer. Todd Pletcher s trainee drew the rail in the Southwest at Oaklawn last Monday, but the race was canceled. Pletcher is 22 percent over the last five years with last-out maiden winners in graded stakes, and 50 percent ran in the money. This homebred has a solid future, but this is a big step in just the third outing. IMPERIA This returnee is fresh and dangerous. The fact that he ran so well in his debut when beaten a neck gives him a shot to be set for this comeback. His only poor effort came in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, where he was steadied and ran into a roadblock. In his last race, in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, he was gaining on the winner, El Kabeir, missing by just a head. And he was boosted when that runner won the Grade 3 Jerome last month with a 95 Beyer and then ran second in Far From Over s Withers victory. The fourth finisher Nov. 29 won next and must be dealt with again today. And the fifth finisher Nov. 29 took the Grade 2 San Vicente with a 91 Beyer. The pedigree is stellar, as the sire was a multiple Grade 1 winner routing, and the millionaire dam won the Grade 1 Beldame at nine furlongs. The spacing of the return drills is ideal, and this colt should be a serious threat to win. WAR STORY This runner broke onto the scene last fall, overcoming a poor start to win going away at Churchill. Freshened and shipped to Fair Grounds, the gelding got an ideal trip while beating winners, scoring by nearly three lengths with an 86 Beyer. Wheeled back about three weeks later, the son of Northern Afleet made a nice middle move to go from fifth to within a length of the lead before being passed by today s key rival on the extreme outside. He also was entered in the Southwest and drew post 11. Had a bullet work Feb. 11. The sire of this gelding was a Grade 2 winner at nine furlongs; his dam was a non-winner, but she also dropped Draw Two, a triple winner on grass who carried his speed 1 1/2 miles. He s consistent, sharp, and dangerous right back.

6 HERO OF HUMOR The placement for this racer is very ambitious. He was handled easily in all of his stakes attempts, and although he showed speed in the Lecomte, there are others in here with designs on the lead. He also has lost ground late in all of his routes, including the win last time. The show horse in the Jan. 3 race took a $50,000 stakes next out, and the winner took the Grade 3 Hutcheson next out. Trainer Gennadi Dorochenko is 0 for 12 in the last five years with last-out winners in graded stakes, but two ran third at odds of 40-1 and Note the wraps were re-added last time. He has some things to prove today. KEEN ICE This son of Curlin was all out to win his only race, a one-mile event at Churchill, by a head. He beat better than half the field home next out in the Breeders Futurity when beaten by Carpe Diem, who returned to run a solid second in Texas Red s Breeders Cup Juvenile. Left with too much to do in the Remsen in his 2014 finale, and he just never kicked in the Holy Bull last time when bumped at the break. He does figure to like the long stretch here. The stamina is there on the top side, as his sire won the Breeders Cup Classic. His dam lost her only start, and this is her first to race. Dale Romans is 12 for 106, or 11 percent, in the last five years with shipping sophomores in graded stakes, and 11 ran second at odds between 3-2 and With his style, he could be left with a ton of work to do turning for home. BIG BIG EASY Troubled in his debut, this colt just held it together to graduate next out. He may have disliked the grass in his next start but was professional in winning for the second time in a mile race at Churchill. The place horse that day, Eagle, beat entry-level allowance foes next out with a 78 Beyer before losing the next pair. The place horse in his last race has won twice since, the last in a $75,000 stakes at Delta Downs. He still has a way to go to repay his $90,000 purchase price, but he has a right to have a nice career as kin to This Ones for Phil, who is known as a sprinter but did win a $60,000, one-mile stakes on his way to almost $800,000 in earnings. This colt has trained forwardly, but he will need to make a big step forward. INTERNATIONAL STAR This winner of the Lecomte Stakes had the cozy slot last time, but now must invent a trip from the marooned post. His style should be able to help him in that respect, as the rider can take a little hold, try to get over to save ground, and then make the one run. The bullet drill a week ago was tied with stablemate and winner Task Force Glory. He is bred to run all day long. His sire won the Kentucky Derby, his dam was a triple route winner, and sibling Fools in Love won a pair of routes at 8 1/2 furlongs. This colt finally won on dirt last time, and he s trained forwardly in Florida since, including the best-of-the-morning 1:00.20 workout a week ago. Trainer Mike Maker is 11 for 94, or 12 percent, over the last five years with last-out winners in graded stakes. He was pushed wide in the BC Juvenile Turf, and it was asking a lot of him to ship 3,000 miles and be on his game for the 2014 finale. With clear sailing, this runner should be right on the wire. Brian Mulligan

7 PREVIEW 2 Fountain of Youth Preview: Short price on Upstart By Dan Illman The prep season heats up in earnest this weekend as the winners of both the Fountain of Youth and Risen Star stakes will receive 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points. Since its inception in 1945, the Fountain of Youth has produced some excellent 3-year-old prospects. Iron Liege (second, 1957), Tim Tam (first, 1958), Carry Back (third, 1961), Kauai King (first, 1966), Spectacular Bid (first, 1979), Pleasant Colony (second, 1981), Swale (third, 1984), and Unbridled (third, 1990) all went on to win the Kentucky Derby. The Fountain of Youth enjoyed a resurgence of sorts in the mid-1990s as Go for Gin (second, 1994) and Thunder Gulch (first, 1995) both prevailed under the Twin Spires on the first Saturday in May. As with many of the Kentucky Derby prep races, the Fountain of Youth underwent distance changes in recent years. From and , the race was contested at 1 1/8 miles. It was run over a flat mile in In 2012, however, the Fountain of Youth reverted to its usual 1 1/16 miles and has since produced Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags (first, 2012) and Kentucky Derby hero Orb (first, 2013). Upstart (7) dominated the competition in the Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream on Jan. 24 to the tune of a 106 Beyer Speed Figure. Trained by Rick Violette, who saddled 2004 Fountain of Youth winner Read the Footnotes, the New York-bred prompted the leaders from the outside, attacked midway on the final turn, and drew away as much the best. Upstart could work out a similar trip in the Fountain of Youth and is obviously the horse to beat at a short price. The Beyer from the Holy Bull doesn t seem like an anomaly. As a 2-year-old, Upstart received a 102 Beyer when second in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont. Frosted (6), second in the Holy Bull, appears the main danger once again. Conditioned by Kiaran McLaughlin, Frosted is eligible to move forward as he adds blinkers for his second start of the year. The Godolphin homebred is certainly bred to be a top horse. He is by all-world sire Tapit and out of Fast Cookie, the winner of the Grade 2 Cotillion Handicap. McLaughlin trained Soldat to prevail in the 2011 Fountain of Youth. The undefeated Itsaknockout (5) bids to give trainer Todd Pletcher his third Fountain of Youth trophy (Scat Daddy, 2007; Eskendereya, 2010). This will be the first time around two turns for the son of Belmont Stakes winner Lemon Drop Kid, but his grinding style and stout pedigree should allow him to handle this additional distance without much fuss. Itsaknockout takes a big jump in class as he didn t appear to beat a strong entry-level optionalclaiming group at Gulfstream on Jan. 4. Gorgeous Bird (4) also jumps up in class and distance. Handled by Ian Wilkes, Gorgeous Bird looked good while rallying from off a moderate pace to obliterate an n1x field by seven lengths. A professional maiden winner at Churchill Downs in his juvenile finale, Gorgeous Bird is a half-brother to Grade 2-placed dirt sprinter Pow Wow Wow from the female family of Belmont Stakes winner Birdstone and Kentucky Oaks winner Bird Town. His Beyers are light when compared to those of Upstart and Frosted, but he has plenty of upside potential. Bluegrass Singer (2) still must answer the distance question. When stretched to 1 1/16 miles for the first time in the Holy Bull, he willingly gave up the lead to Upstart after setting a slow pace for six furlongs. He has paired up Beyer tops in his last two races, and that is often a precursor to an improved effort. Bluegrass Singer should be forwardly placed once more, but he may ultimately be best in sprints and one-turn, one-mile heats. Danny Boy (8) is an intriguing price alternative. Although he has competed mostly on turf, his lone dirt race, the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes last summer, was pretty good. He raced wide while attempting to rally into slow splits and was only beaten 3 1/2 lengths. Danny Boy ran very well when second in the Grade 3 Bourbon Stakes on turf last fall at Keeneland, and he has some dirt in his pedigree. This is the female family of the crack sprinter Housebuster. The main concern is whether trainer Dale Romans will have Danny Boy full cranked for his first start of the season. Nick Zito has won the Fountain of Youth twice (High Fly, 2005; Cool Coal Man, 2008), and he ll send out Frammento (3) in this year s edition. Frammento was well beaten by Bluegrass Singer two starts back at eight furlongs and never made a dent when sixth in the Fountain of Youth. Zito adds blinkers, and Frammento will be reunited with John Velazquez, the jockey who was aboard for Frammento s only victory. Juan and Bina (1) finished an even fourth in the Holy Bull. He switches riders to Javier Castellano and could be closer to the pace this time.

8 ANALYSIS 2 Fountain of Youth Analysis By Dan Illman Distance: 1 1/16 miles on dirt Kentucky Derby qualifying points: PACE SCENARIO Early speed: Bluegrass Singer, Juan and Bina Pace pressers: Upstart Stalkers/midpack runners: Frosted, Itsaknockout, Gorgeous Bird Closers: Danny Boy, Frammento PACE ANALYSIS Expect a moderate pace. Bluegrass Singer, a two-time gate-to-wire winner this meet, carved out the fractions to no avail Jan. 24 in the Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes. He ll attempt to shake loose entering the backstretch but could face pressure this time from Juan and Bina. That one was a bit rank when rated in the Holy Bull, and Javier Castellano may opt to send from the gate and hope for the best from the advantageous inside post. Upstart has wonderful tactical speed and projects for a good trip just off the leaders while in the clear. Expect Upstart to make a strong bid entering the final turn, and he just might be in front when the field turns for home. It will be interesting to see if the addition of blinkers makes Frosted more aggressive in the early part of the race. If so, don t be surprised if he s with Upstart and Itsaknockout in the second flight on the backstretch. Gorgeous Bird rallied from off the pace to win his last two races. He might need a bit more pace to properly set up his late kick. FORMULATOR FACTS Trainer Rick Violette is with a $3.26 ROI over the past three years with last-out winners making the second start following a layoff in a dirt route. The favored Upstart will attempt to add to that gaudy win percentage in the Fountain of Youth. Trainer Todd Pletcher is with a $3.66 ROI over the past four years with last-out winners returning from a 45- to 60-day layoff in a graded stakes dirt-route race. The undefeated Itsaknockout could offer some value here. One should question what Itsaknockout beat in an entry-level optional claimer Jan. 4. Three horses have run back from that race, and only one returned to crack the trifecta. That horse was the beaten odds-on favorite in a $20,000 claimer. In Danny Boy s lone dirt effort, he finished ahead of Mr. Z. Since that race, Mr. Z has placed in four stakes races, two graded, with a 91 Beyer top. While Upstart probably won t be on the lead, his Moss Pace Rating indicates he s fast enough to be close. He received a 91 MPR at the pace call of the Breeders Cup Juvenile. They won t be getting away from him early in the Fountain of Youth Juan and Bina s dam, Caressing, won the 2000 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies at Churchill Downs. Perhaps this colt needs more aggressive handling from the gate. Danny Boy s dam could run on dirt. She finished second in both the Astoria Stakes and the Grade 2 Adirondack Stakes. Although Danny Boy s lone win came on turf, he should handle the surface switch. SELECTIONS 1. Upstart 2. Frosted 3. Bluegrass Singer ELEVENTH RACE Probable Post 5:30 EST 1 1/16 Miles. 3-Year-Olds. FntnOYth (Grade 2). Purse: $400,000 PP HORSE JOCKEY WT. M.L. 7 Upstart...Ortiz J L Frosted...Ortiz I Jr Itsaknockout...Saez L Gorgeous Bird...Rosario J Bluegrass Singer...Lopez P Danny Boy...Lanerie C J Juan and Bina...Castellano J J Frammento...Velazquez J R Blinkers On: Frammento, Frosted Blinkers Off: Juan and Bina

9 CLOSER LOOK 2 Fountain of Youth Closer Look JUAN AND BINA This colt has run very well in three of his first four starts, but he s also been soundly defeated by a few of today s rivals in his two most recent races, and even though it s encouraging to see Javier Castellano jump ship from Bluegrass Singer, that might be more of an indictment of Bluegrass Singer. His best chance might be if he guns for the lead from the rail post, but he s not going to have an easy lead with Bluegrass Singer and Itsaknockout signed on. Feel that a minor award is the ceiling. BLUEGRASS SINGER Have to respect that he s a stakes winner racing over the main track here, but not only did it seem like he was overbet in the Grade 2 Holy Bull in his latest start, but he made an easy lead and still wasn t a match for today s rivals Upstart and Frosted. He loses the services of Castellano to Juan and Bina, and even though Paco Lopez is one of the best speed riders in the country, he s up against it in this spot, especially with Juan and Bina and Itasaknockout signed on to prevent him from setting a soft early pace. FRAMMENTO Playing the jockey shuffle, Luis Saez will pilot Itsaknockout in here, and it looks like the right move when considering that this colt has been soundly defeated by a number of today s rivals in his two most recent starts. Perhaps the addition of blinkers can prove to be a key, but even if he does show sharper early speed, he ll likely find himself involved in a bitter early pace dispute. Find it difficult to give him a favorable push in this spot. GORGEOUS BIRD It s very difficult to look past the obvious choices in this race in Upstart and Frosted, but if there is a possible upsetter in this field, this might be the one. His sire finished second in this event, and all that this colt has done through his first three starts is shown noticeable improvement from start to start. Feel that he is one of two in this race to consider outside of the obvious two. Over the past two years, trainer Ian Wilkes has won with 1 of 37 (2 percent) starters in graded stakes races. ITSAKNOCKOUT Obviously he hasn t faced the likes of Upstart and Frosted before now, but he s been very impressive in his first two starts, and there isn t any telling what his ceiling is at this point. Although he clearly has a good deal of early speed, it isn t like he s an early-speed type, and even though it was in December, to see a 2-year-old win his career debut going seven furlongs the way that this one did is pretty impressive, especially when he backed it up the way he did in his 3-year-old debut with a sharp winning performance going a mile. Over the past four years, trainer Todd Pletcher has won with 14 of 36 (39 percent) 3-year-old starters in graded stakes races run over the main track at Gulfstream Park. FROSTED He looked like a legitimate favorite in the Grade 2 Holy Bull in his latest outing after a couple of sharp performances at Aqueduct, and even though he might have been placed at a tactical disadvantage from the break, it s difficult to say that he would have gotten the better of Upstart had the trips been reversed. His connections get aggressive with the addition of blinkers, but in a race that doesn t figure to have a slow early tempo, the addition of blinkers might play against him. Over the past year, the trainer/jockey tandem of Kiaran McLaughlin and Irad Ortiz Jr. has won with 32 of 89 (36 percent) starters, with a $3.01 return on investment. UPSTART This is a ridgling who has done little wrong since his first start, and after witnessing his 3-year-old debut over this surface, it just seems like a bad idea to go against him in this spot. It is horse racing, and things happen, but reportedly he s only maintained his edge or improved, and if that s the case, he ll be difficult to deny. Over the past year, trainer Rick Violette has won with 5 of 12 (42 percent) starters who were making their second start after a layoff routing on dirt. DANNY BOY It s tough to give him the nod over horses like Upstart and Frosted, but he does have at least mild appeal in this spot when considering that there is a chance that this race will have a very fast and contested early pace, and this stone-cold closer was up against it in his only dirt start before now, trying to rally in a paceless race, and still ran well. He s likely going to offer a good deal of value, and feel that he is worth including in multiple-race wagers. Brian Pochman

10 TEST Southwest Preview: All eyes on Mr. Z s stretch run By Dan Illman Inaugurated in 1959 and a sprint fixture on the Oaklawn calendar between 1969 and 1983, the Southwest Stakes first became a true Kentucky Derby prep when Whitebrush defeated Lucky Larry and At the Threshold in Contested at one mile through the 2012 edition, the Southwest produced some promising 3-year-olds. Pine Bluff and Lil E. Tee (second and third in 1992) and Smarty Jones (first in 2004) emerged as classic winners. The Southwest was moved to its current distance of 1 1/16 miles in The Southwest was originally scheduled for Feb. 16, but was cancelled due to weather, and was redrawn for Feb. 22. Ten of the original entrants came back for Sunday s running, while J S Bach and War Story opted to be entered in the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds on Saturday. One new horse, Hillbilly Royalty, was entered the Southwest. FAR RIGHT (6) won the local prep for the Southwest, the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes on Jan. 19, but critics will argue that he was handed the race on a silver platter when favorite MR. Z (11) bolted dramatically turning for home. Still, it s hard to deny what Far Right has done since being transformed into a one-run closer by trainer Ron Moquett. Far Right was arguably the best horse in the Grade 3 Delta Downs Jackpot on Nov. 22. That day, he made a menacing move along the inside and was checked hard at a crucial point of the race. Despite the trouble, Far Right still ran on well for third behind the promising Ocho Ocho Ocho and Mr. Z. Taken back along the inside again by new rider Mike Smith in the Smarty Jones, Far Right split rivals on the turn, dove back to the rail in upper stretch, and deftly avoided trouble to win going away. As a late-kicking type, he ll need a decent pace up front, as well as racing luck, but he looks to be coming into his own. The Moquett barn has been blanked in graded stakes races since Seek Gold pulled off a huge shocker in the 2006 Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs. Smith won the Southwest in 1986 with Rare Brick. Unlike Far Right, the hard-luck Mr. Z prefers to race near the front. Given an alert break, there is a good chance that Corey Nakatani will place Mr. Z on the lead. He s run well in eight of his nine races but only owns a maiden win on his record. He s placed in six stakes, was beaten a neck by Ocho Ocho Ocho in the Delta Jackpot, was headed by the talented Dortmund in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity, and snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in the Smarty Jones. In that race, he pressed the longshot leader from the No. 2 path while eager. He made the front turning for home and seemingly was on his way to victory when he bolted to the outer rail. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas will reportedly switch bits in the hope that he ll keep a truer course in the Southwest. Lukas won this race in 1992 with Big Sur. Trainer Steve Asmussen has won the Southwest twice (Tapiture in 2014; Private Emblem, dead heat, in 2002), and he ll send out the uncoupled entry of BAYERD (1) and BOLD CONQUEST (5). Bayerd finished second in the Smarty Jones, but he really benefited from Mr. Z s stretch antics. Up to that point, Bayerd had raced evenly from stalking range and was under an all-out drive with 2 1/2 furlongs remaining. He was late to make his final lead change as well. Bayerd is very consistent he has never been off the board from six starts and has excellent tactical speed. He has a strong sprint pedigree, though, and one must wonder if he ll continue to improve as the distances increase. Bold Conquest suffered from a wide trip when necked in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs on Sept. 6. In his final start of 2014, the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland, Bold Conquest was a well-beaten third after a start-and-stop trip. He shows two bullet workouts at his Fair Grounds base, and Tapiture won this race following a similar layoff last winter. Jockey Ricardo Santana Jr., who piloted Tapiture, gets the call on Bold Conquest. HILLBILLY ROYALTY (3) is a fascinating new shooter. Undefeated in two starts, the gelded son of Langfuhr looked very good winning an entry-level optional claimer over this track and distance 16 days ago. In that spot, Hillbilly Royalty pressed the pace from the outside, took over at will on the final turn, and drew away to win by 4 1/2 lengths. This is a big step up in class, but he has some ability, and a good amount of pedigree. His third dam is Gana Facil, the dam of Kentucky Derby winner Unbridled and Wood Memorial hero Cahill Road. THE TRUTH OR ELSE (8) adds Lasix after a sixthplace effort in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes on Nov. 29. He attempted to rally wide over an inside, speed-favoring track that day, so it s probably best to draw a line through that race. A well-beaten third in both the Grade 2 Nashua Stakes and the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes, The Truth Or Else needs some pace to help his late flurry. Jockey Calvin Borel, who won the Southwest in 1998 with Hot Wells, picks up the mount for trainer Ken McPeek. KANTUNE (9) needed seven tries to break his maiden, but he did so in nice style in his first trip over the Oaklawn course. His Beyers are steadily improving, and he has enough tactical speed to stay within range of the early leaders. PRIVATE PROSPECT (4) finished fourth in the Smarty Jones after an even try. That was his first start of the year, and he certainly can build off that effort. He isn t the worst exotics possibility at a big price. PHENOMENAL PHOENIX (7) and MAJESTICO (2), the second- and fifth-place finishers in an entry-level optional claimer at Oaklawn on the Smarty Jones undercard, and BOLD ANIMAUX (10), a three-time winner who has competed exclusively on turf, complete the field.

11 Southwest Analysis By Dan Illman Distance: 1 1/16 miles on dirt Kentucky Derby Qualifying Points: PACE SCENARIO Early Speed: Mr. Z Pace Pressers: Hillbilly Royalty Kantune, Bold Animaux Stalkers/Midpack Runners: Bayerd, Bold Conquest, Private Prospect, Phenomenal Phoenix Closers: Far Right, The Truth Or Else, Majestico PACE ANALYSIS Expect a moderate pace. Mr. Z has been eager since being equipped with blinkers by Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas. He has enough speed to find the front given an alert break. Hillbilly Royalty pressed the pace en route to winning his first two starts. He doesn t have Mr. Z s natural early zip, but shouldn t be too far back when the field hits the backstretch. Perhaps he ll break, allow Mr. Z to clear over, and rate on the outside. Kantune was up close to the pace when winning his maiden over this course and distance last month. He can find a good spot just off the leaders along with the tactical Bayerd. Far Right has picked up his game since the connections decided he was best as a one-run closer. Mike Smith will likely have the Smarty Jones winner at the back of the pack. From there, he will need race and pace luck FORMULATOR FACTS Steve Asmussen is (30 percent winners) with a $3.74 ROI over the past three years with horses returning from 61 to 180-day layoffs in dirt route graded stakes races. He successfully utilized this move with jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. in last year s Southwest with Tapiture. They will try again in 2015 with Bold Conquest. Bold Conquest exits a key race. The Grade 1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland on Oct. 4 has produced three next-out stakes winners (Beyers ranging from 70 to 89). The winner of the Breeders Futurity, Carpe Diem, returned to finish second in the Breeders Cup Juvenile while Keen Ice, the fifth-place runner, came back to finish third in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes. Bayerd has a sprint pedigree. The second dam was Grade 3-placed at six furlongs and the dam was a multiple stakes winner sprinting on dirt. It is questionable whether Bayerd will successfully stretch out in distance. If you believe that longshot Bold Animaux fits from a class perspective, you will be heartened to learn that the second dam was multiple stakes-placed going long on dirt. Perhaps he will improve as he switches from turf for the first time. Kantune finished his final 2 1/2 furlongs in seconds when winning his maiden. That clocking was termed Fast Late by the Moss Race Shape Progression Line. It s possible that Kantune is getting good at the right time. Far Right s trainer, Ron Moquett, is 0 for 40 over the past four years in graded stakes races. SELECTIONS 1. Hillbilly Royalty 2. Far Right 3. Bayerd EIGHTH RACE Probable Post 4:42 CST 1 1/16 Miles. 3-Year-Olds. Southwest Stakes. Purse: $300,000 PP HORSE JOCKEY WT. ODDS 11 Mr. Z...Nakatani C S Far Right...Smith M E Bayerd...Vazquez R A Private Prospect...Birzer A E Kantune...Bridgmohan S X Bold Conquest...Santana R Jr Hillbilly Royalty...Quinonez L S Phenomenal Phoenix...Berry M C The Truth Or Else...Borel C H Majestico...Thompson T J Bold Animaux...Ocampo I Blinkers On: Phenomenal Phoenix

12 Southwest Closer Look BAYERD He was one of the more impressive maiden winners at Saratoga last summer and went on to take two stakes from his next three starts, including his initial two-turn spin. He was close to a solid clip in the Smarty Jones last month yet was still able to split a couple of these for second money. Given his pedigree, don t know that he ll get a lot better as the distances increase, but off what he s done, he deserves some attention in here. MAJESTICO Wide trip didn t help while chasing allowance runners in his return from the freshening here last month, but he really didn t have much impact on the outcome. His stakes try at Churchill Downs two back wasn t very good either, and it looks fair to question whether he belongs at this level. Looking elsewhere for the winner. HILLBILLY ROYALTY He s undefeated from two spaced starts, and his effort the first time with winners over the local main track earned a number that few of these have approached. This gelding spots his foes an edge in experience, and he ll get a huge class test while returning in just a couple of weeks off that career-best Beyer Speed Figure effort. If he s able to run back to that try, he s obviously a huge threat, but over the past five years, this barn is only 2 for 12 (17 percent) with 3-year-olds returning within a month of their most recent starts in the stakes ranks, so it wouldn t be a surprise to see him take a step back in a heat that was originally scheduled to be run last week. Trying to beat him. PRIVATE PROSPECT Ran pretty well in each of his juvenile starts prior to being overmatched from the fence at the Breeders Cup. His return try nearly equaled his career-best number, so that s something to build on, and though he did finish behind several of today s foes, his barn has had some recent success moving them forward the second time back from the break. BOLD CONQUEST Barn s second runner in here hit the bench after getting up for the show behind a runner-up who shows up in this spot as well. He was very good in his route and stakes debut at Churchill last summer, and he s been working quite well of late at his Fair Grounds base in preparation for his sophomore debut. Over the past five years, this barn is 11 for 35 (31 percent) with sophomore graded stakes runners returning off a layoff, so while he may still need a race before we see his best, he s one to keep an eye on. FAR RIGHT Rallied from well out of it to take the local Smarty Jones Stakes last month at a slightly shorter trip while defeating a bunch of these. Colt will move off the fence for this, but it doesn t appear as if the pace will be as hot as it was last time, and that could make it more difficult for him to have a similar impact in the lane. This barn is 1 for 10 (10 percent) over the past two years with last-out winners making their second start back from the break. He s one to consider off his last, but we ll try to beat him on the win end. PHENOMENAL PHOENIX Adds the hood for his return to stakes company off a solid placing at the local trip last time out. Gelding wasn t much of a threat in the stakes ranks at Remington Park in his final juvenile effort, but he was caught in a wide spot over a wet track. He s lightly raced, so he s got a right to move forward, and his starts over dry tracks were solid, but he ll need to get better to go with these. THE TRUTH OR ELSE Colt makes his first start of the season after facing several decent ones in his stakes tries in New York last fall. He had little shot while stuck in a wide path over an intensely inside-biased racetrack while trying two turns for the first time on dirt in Aqueduct s Grade 2 Remsen, and he ll lure Calvin Borel for his first local spin. This barn is 32 for 175 (18 percent) over the past five years with dirt shippers returning from a layoff. He ll go first-time Lasix here, and his drill the other day suggests he ll be looking to get more involved early this time. The price should be right. KANTUNE Last-out graduate picks a tough spot to try winners for the first time. He did break his maiden at the trip over the track last month, and a top local pilot will stick with him off a sharp breeze earlier in the month, but he ll get a serious class test today. This one s barn is 7 for 31 (23 percent) with runners going from a maiden win to graded-stakes company over the past five years.

13 BOLD ANIMAUX He tries dirt for the first time in his initial spin under this new outfit s care. He crushed claimers on the Tampa Bay Downs lawn last month, but that s a far cry from tackling experienced stakes foes in a new environment from out here. Looks to have a pretty difficult task ahead of him. MR. Z Kicked away from his pace rival after fighting from the bell in his local debut last month but didn t have enough left to hold off a couple of these in that prep for this. Barn s second runner in here has been well traveled, and he hasn t seen the winner s circle since his sprint debut, but he s quick early, and though he ll tackle a little extra ground while moving to the outside slot today, he could well find the pace scenario much more to his liking. It s interesting to note that over the past five years, this outfit is 0 for 12 with last-out beaten favorites returning in the stakes ranks, but they ll likely have to run down this colt to win. Steve Grabowski

14 Road to the 2015 Kentucky Derby DATE... RACE... DISTANCE...TRACK... WINNER...BEYER...1ST... 2ND... 3RD...4TH Sept Iroquois /16M... Churchill Downs...Lucky Player Sept FrontRunner /16M... Santa Anita...American Pharoah Oct Breeders Futurity /16M... Keeneland...Carpe Diem Oct Champagne... 1M... Belmont...Daredevil Oct Grey /16M (S)... Woodbine...International Star Nov BC Juvenile /16M... Santa Anita...Texas Red Nov Delta Downs Jackpot /16M... Delta Downs...Ocho Ocho Ocho Nov Remsen /8M... Aqueduct...Leave the Light On Nov Kentucky Jockey Club /16M... Churchill Downs...El Kabeir Dec Los Alamitos Futurity /16M... Los Alamitos...Dortmund Jan Jerome... 1 mile 70 yds... Aqueduct...El Kabeir Jan Sham... 1M... Santa Anita...Calculator Jan Lecomte... 1M 70 yds... Fair Grounds...International Star Jan Smarty Jones... 1M... Oaklawn Park...Far Right Jan Holy Bull /16M... Gulfstream...Upstart Feb Withers /16M... Aqueduct...Far From Over Feb Robert B. Lewis /16M... Santa Anita Park...Dortmund Feb El Camino Real Derby /8M (S)... Golden Gate...Metaboss Feb Southwest /16M... Oaklawn Park

15 Kentucky Derby Championship Series DATE... RACE... DISTANCE...TRACK...1ST... 2ND...3RD...4TH Feb Risen Star /16M... Fair Grounds Feb Fountain of Youth /16M... Gulfstream March 7... Gotham /16M... Aqueduct March 7... Tampa Bay Derby /16M... Tampa Bay Downs March 7... San Felipe /16M... Santa Anita March Rebel /16M... Oaklawn March Spiral /8M (S)... Turfway March Sunland Derby /8M... Sunland Park March Florida Derby /8M... Gulfstream Park March UAE Derby /16M... Meydan March Louisiana Derby /8M... Fair Grounds April 4... Wood Memorial /8M... Aqueduct April 4... Santa Anita Derby /8M... Santa Anita April 4... Blue Grass /8M... Keeneland April Arkansas Derby /8M... Oaklawn Park April Lexington /16M... Keeneland

16 Kentucky Derby 2015 Point Standings (through Feb. 17) NON-RESTRICTED RANK HORSE TRAINER POINTS EARNINGS 1... El Kabeir... John Terranova $380, International Star... Mike Maker $250, Dortmund... Bob Baffert $390, Upstart... Rick Violette, Jr $538, Carpe Diem... Todd Pletcher $660, Texas Red... Keith Desormeaux $1,176, Mr. Z... D. Wayne Lukas $488, Far Right... Ron Moquette $205, Ocho Ocho Ocho... Jim Cassidy $660, American Pharoah... Bob Baffert $360, Daredevil... Todd Pletcher $300, Far From Over... Todd Pletcher $150, Metaboss... Jeff Bonde $126, Lucky Player... Steve Asmussen $97, Frosted... Kiaran McLaughlin $156, Firing Line... Simon Callaghan $130, Conquest Typhoon... Mark Casse $335, Bold Conquest... Steve Asmussen $72, Rock Shandy... Peter Miller $56, Bayerd... Steve Asmussen $245, Imperia... Kiaran McLaughlin $163, Cross the Line... Jerry Hollendorfer $100, Nasa... John Servis $40, War Story... Tom Amoss $40, Classy Class... Kiaran McLaughlin $45,000 NON-RESTRICTED RANK HORSE TRAINER POINTS STAKES EARNINGS Bluegrass Singer... Marcus Vitali $104, The Truth or Else... Kenny McPeek $76, Hashtag Bourbon... Kellyn Gorder $74, Keen Ice... Dale Romans $66, Hollywood Critic... Barbara Minshall $35, General Bellamy... Bill Mott $25, Eagle... Neil Howard $23, Tiznow R J... Steve Asmussen $20, Pioneerof the West... Mark Casse $14, The Great War... Wesley Ward $214, Lord Nelson... Bob Baffert $204, Private Prospect... Michael Campbell $137, Danny Boy... Dale Romans $55, Saratoga Heater... Al Stall, Jr $50, Bench Warrant... John Sadler $42, Juan and Bina... Gustavo Delgado $36, St. Joe Bay... Peter Miller $27, Tough Customer... Wayne Catalano $25, Ackeret... Kiaran McLaughlin $13, Tencendur... George Weaver $12, Harmonic... Jerry Hollendorfer $12, Hero Ten All... Jeff Mullins $9, Flashaway... John C. Oxley $8, Another Lemon Drop... Phil Bauer $8, Not Triple Crown nominated