KENTUCKY DERBY. Animal Kingdom wins 2011 Derby. Horsephotos.com/NTRA XPRESS ( )

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1 KENTUCKY DERBY Wagering Guide Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin May 1 Animal Kingdom wins 2011 Derby. Horsephotos.com/NTRA XPRESS ( )

2 Fellow Racing Fan, Welcome to the seventh edition of Xpressbet s free Derby Wagering Guide! Inside you will find everything you need to watch and wager on the Kentucky Derby like a pro. Xpressbet will offer online, phone and mobile wagering on the entire Triple Crown series and produce free wagering guides for remaining events: Preakness (available May 11) and Belmont Stakes (available June 1). As a current account holder you know that Xpressbet is the best place to watch and wager on great racing from around the world. If you don t already have an Xpressbet account, act now and earn up to $125 in bonus cash! That, certainly, will come in handy during the Triple Crown. Complete details are available on the website. The Kentucky Derby is one of the most important racing days worldwide and Xpressbet arms horseplayers with important information. That s why we ve recruited top handicappers, writers and broadcasters to examine the race Analysis, Main Contenders, Value Plays and $100 Wagering Strategies. In addition to race-by-race expert commentary, inside you ll also find useful Stats and Trends, a handy Exotic Wagering Guide and much more. Make certain to return to the Xpressbet website for free daily Kentucky Derby Wagering Guide Updates. These will include critical workout information; Johnny D s in-depth, horse-by-horse analysis; revised expert opinions and selections based on scratches, post positions, weather, etc. Updates will be posted daily beginning Tuesday, May 1. Xpressbet hopes your 2012 Kentucky Derby wagering experience is fruitful and we look forward to serving as your advance deposit account wagering provider for the big day and into the future. Sincerely, Ron Luniewski President Xpressbet XPRESS ( ) *Restrictions apply. See website for details. National gambling support line

3 SEE HOW THEY PREP By Jeremy Plonk, Horseplayernow.com Since 1986, every Kentucky Derby champion except Charismatic exited a 9-furlong final tune-up. Fast finishes often indicate a positive result in the Kentucky Derby. Spiral Stakes (March 24): Went the Day Well ran his final 3 furlongs in approximately 39.10, the final furlong in He was never more than 2-1/4 lengths behind, stalking a scorching opening half-mile. Sunland Derby (March 25): Daddy Nose Best closed to win in over the final 3 furlongs and the final furlong. Isn t He Clever inherited the lead when a half-mile speed duel crumbled. He finished in and Florida Derby (March 31): Trakus clocked wireto-wire winner Take Charge Indy in the final 3 furlongs and the final furlong. Union Rags (36.50, 12.58) and El Padrino (36.90, 12.75) all were in pursuit after a slow 6 furlongs in 1: Wood Memorial (April 7): Gemologist pressed and pounced to score, coming home in just over 38-flat the final 3 furlongs and the final furlong. Alpha rallied for second in a nearly identical 38-flat over the final 3 furlongs and the final eighth. Santa Anita Derby (April 7): I ll Have Another employed a press-and-pounce style to win in over the final 3 furlongs and the final eighth. Runner-up Creative Cause came home a bit quicker in 36.04, with an identical final furlong. Liaison managed and splits. Illinois Derby (April 7): Deep-closing Done Talking came home in and splits to win, overcoming a modest opening half-mile. Blue Grass (April 14): Trakus timed winner Dullahan in over the final 3 furlongs and in the final eighth. Pace-setting runner-up Hansen went the half in a smoking and came home in and splits. Prospective earned and splits Arkansas Derby (April 14): Wire-to-wire winner Bodemeister came home in for the final 3 furlongs with a sizzling last eighth. Behind a solid opening half-mile in 46.55, Sabercat passed others for third in and splits. KENTUCKY DERBY CAPSULE Year Winner Jockey-Trainer Days Prep Fin.- Pos. ¼ M Pos. ½ M Fav. Fin ($2 payoff) Combo Off Prep Loc. Into Race Into Race (Odds) 2011 Animal Kingdom ($43.80 ) Velazquez-Motion 42 1-Spiral 12th- 6-1/4L 10th-6L 8th (5/1) 2010 Super Saver ($18.00 ) Borel-Pletcher 21 2-Arkansas Derby 6th- 5-1/2L 6th-8L 6th (6/1) 2009 Mine That Bird ($ ) Borel-Woolley 34 4-Sunland Derby 19th- 14L 12th-7L 18th (7/2) 2008 Big Brown ($6.80*) Desormeaux-R. Dutrow 35 1-Florida Derby 4th- 1 ½L 6th- 2 ½L 1st (2/1) 2007 Street Sense ($11.80*) Borel-Nafzger 21 2-Blue Grass 18th-15L 19th-19L 1st (9/2) 2006 Barbaro ($14.20) Prado-Matz 35 1-FL Derby 5th-3 ¼ L 4th-4L 7th (5/1) 2005 Giacomo ($102.60) Smith-Shirreffs 28 4-SA Derby 18th-16L 18th-14L 7th (5/2) 2004 Smarty Jones ($10.20*) Elliott-Servis 21 1-Ark Derby 2nd-1 ½L 2nd-2L 1st (4/1) 2003 Funny Cide ($27.60) Santos-Tagg 21 2-Wood 4th-2L 3rd-2L 2nd (5/2) *Starting Favorite EXPERT SELECTION GRID Expert Bob Neumeier Mike Battaglia Jeff Siegel Jon White Dick Jerardi Steve Byk (NBC Sports) (NBC Sports) (HRTV) (HRTV) (Phila. Daily News) (SiriusXM Radio) First Bodemeister Dullahan Bodemeister I ll Have Another Union Rags Dullahan Second Creative Cause Gemologist Gemologist Daddy Nose Best Creative Cause El Padrino Third I ll Have Another Union Rags Dullahan Creative Cause Bodemeister Sabercat Fourth Dullahan Went the Day Well Went the Day Well Union Rags Dullahan Done Talking KENTUCKY DERBY Wagering Guide Updates Available Online Daily Beginning Tuesday, May 1

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5 Derby Extras by Jeremy Plonk NBC Sports Triple Crown Researcher Here are Derby Stats & Trends and Know This tidbits to get you started. You ll find these juicy nuggets of information throughout the Xpressbet Kentucky Derby Wagering Guide. Stats & Trends: Synthetic-to-Dirt Derby Starters Year Horse Fin Animal Kingdom 1st 2011 Master of Hounds * 5th 2011 Santiva 6th 2011 Brilliant Speed 7th 2011 Derby Kitten 13th 2011 Decisive Moment 14th 2011 Midnight Interlude * 16th 2011 Twinspired 17th 2011 Comma to the Top 19th 2010 Paddy O Prado * 3rd 2010 Make Music For Me 4th 2010 Lookin At Lucky * 6th 2010 Stately Victor 8th 2010 Dean s Kitten 14th 2010 Sidney s Candy * 17th 2009 Pioneerof The Nile * 2nd 2009 Chocolate Candy * 5th 2009 Join in the Dance 7th 2009 General Quarters * 10th 2009 Hold Me Back * 12th 2009 Advice 13th 2009 Mr. Hot Stuff 15th 2008 Colonel John * 6th 2008 Pyro * 8th 2008 Cowboy Cal 9th 2008 Visionaire 12th 2008 Cool Coal Man 15th 2008 Bob Black Jack 16th 2008 Big Truck 18th 2008 Adriano 19th 2008 Monba 20th 2007 Street Sense * 1st 2007 Hard Spun * 2nd 2007 Sedgefield 5th 2007 Dominican 11th 2007 Zanjero 12th 2007 Great Hunter 13th 2007 Teuflesberg 17th * less than 20-1 odds Highest Pre-Derby Beyer Figures Year Horse Beyer Fin Soldat th 2010 Devil May Care th Sidney s Candy th 2009 Dunkirk th 2008 Bob Black Jack th 2007 Street Sense 108 1st 2006 Sinister Minister th 2005 Bellamy Road 120 5th 2004 Read the Footnotes 113 7th 2003 Empire Maker 111 2nd 2002 War Emblem 112 1st 2001 Millennium Wind th 2000 Fusaichi Pegasus 111 1st 1999 Charismatic 108 1st Excellent Meeting 108 5th General Challenge th 1998 Indian Charlie 112 3rd 1997 Silver Charm 110 1st Free House 110 3rd 1996 Unbridled s Song 114 5th 1995 Serena s Song th 1994 Holy Bull th 1993 Diazo 109 5th 1992 Lil E. Tee 107 1st Pine Bluff 107 5th Devil His Due th Derby Records Before Winning Derby Year Trainer Sts:1st-2nd-3rd 2011 Graham Motion 2: Todd Pletcher 24: Chip Woolley 0: Rick Dutrow 0: Carl Nafzger 2: Michael Matz 0: John Shirreffs 0: John Servis 0: Barclay Tagg 0: Bob Baffert 11: John Ward 2: Neil Drysdale 0: Winter/Spring Homes of Winners Year Horse State 2011 Animal Kingdom Florida/Kentucky 2010 Super Saver Florida/Arkansas 2009 Mine That Bird New Mexico 2008 Big Brown Florida 2007 Street Sense Florida/Kentucky 2006 Barbaro Florida 2005 Giacomo California 2004 Smarty Jones Arkansas 2003 Funny Cide Florida/New York 2002 War Emblem Louisiana/Illinois 2001 Monarchos Florida/New York Know This Champs at Churchill The only 2-year-old champions to even hit the board in the Kentucky Derby over the past 20 years have been Street Sense, the 2007 winner, and Timber Country, the 1995 third-place finisher. Perhaps not coincidentally, they both were Breeders Cup Juvenile winners at Churchill Downs the previous fall. Hansen, who won the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Churchill in November and was 2-yearold champion in 2011, is a prospective starter in this year s Kentucky Derby. The Big Three Three prep races have produced a Kentucky Derby winner and runner-up over the last five years: the Arkansas Derby, Spiral and Florida Derby. Better Late than Never Horses racing dead-last early in 5 of the last 6 Kentucky Derbies have managed to finish in the superfecta, a streak snapped last year when favored Dialed In rallied to be eighth. The odds of those 5 laterunning bombs were between 24-1 and KENTUCKY DERBY Wagering Guide Updates Available Online Daily Beginning Tuesday, May 1

6 Meet The 2012 Derby Contenders by Johnny D Xpressbet.com UNION RAGS Narrow runner-up to Hansen in the Breeders Cup Juvenile in November and in balloting for year-old Champ honors, Union Rags certainly is looking for payback against his Moby Dick in the Kentucky Derby. Following Union Rags scintillating Fountain of Youth win at Gulfstream, he became a clear-cut Derby favorite. Unfortunately, his stock then dipped a bit when he finished a troubled third in the Florida Derby. If Union Rags has a clear trip and runs like he did in the Fountain of Youth, he will have a big say in the outcome of the Greatest Two Minutes in Sports. ALL OTHER 3-YEAR-OLDS It s easy to understand why horseplayers shunned a list of 23 other legitimate Derby contenders and settled on All Other 3 Year Olds as the 6-1 second choice in Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. It s now a week out from the race and a clear-cut favorite still hasn t emerged. However, as wide-open as things are it s difficult to imagine that the eventual Derby winner was not offered as a wagering interest in Pool 3, but it could happen. Remember Giacomo and Mine That Bird? HANSEN Champion 2-year-old and hero of the Breeders Cup Juvenile in November, Hansen probably won t be favored in this year s Kentucky Derby. He s had an up and down season thus far stumbling at the start of the Holy Bull; winning the Gotham and fading after setting a fast pace in the Blue Grass. He s a quality colt with plenty of early speed, but those who incorrectly suggested he couldn t go a mile and one-sixteenth effectively in November now are certain he can t get a mile and one-quarter in May. CREATIVE CAUSE Third in the previously-mentioned Breeders Cup Juvenile, he s had a solid winter and spring reflected in his co-third choice 8-1 Kentucky Derby Future Wager price. His shining moment as a 3-year-old came in the San Felipe Stakes when he roared past a stubborn Bodemeister late for the win. Creative Cause finished a game second to Robert Lewis-winner I ll Have Another in the Santa Anita Derby, after getting first run on that one in the lane KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER POOL 3 (March 30-April 1) GEMOLOGIST It s difficult to imagine that a horse who is undefeated after five lifetime races, two-for- two at Churchill Downs (including a Grade 2 stakes race) and is trained by Todd Pletcher isn t the favorite for the Kentucky Derby. However, that s the case with Gemologist. He has enough Wagering Morning Final $2 Will Interest Line Odds Odds Pay Union Rags $11.60 All Other 3 YO s $14.20 Hansen $18.80 Creative Cause $19.00 Gemologist $26.80 Take Charge Indy $33.60 Bodemeister $46.00 Dullahan $49.40 Morning Line Odds by Mike Battaglia speed to be close to the early pace, but doesn t need the lead to win. TAKE CHARGE INDY Fifth in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, Take Charge Indy backers were a bit dismayed when he was scratched from the Tampa Bay Derby for a start in the Florida Derby because it s usually not a good sign when Derby connections call an audible at the line of scrimmage. However, this colt took advantage of a comfortable early pace and a favorable track surface to upset heavily-favored Union Rags in the Florida Derby. He won t have as amenable a journey in the Kentucky Derby because there s going to be an honest, if not downright quick, early pace. BODEMEISTER Buried down the list of Future Wager Pool 3 options is Bodemeister at He s only raced four times (two wins and two seconds), but was so impressive in winning the Arkansas Derby that he will be one of the top two choices in the Kentucky Derby. He s trained by Bob Baffert a man who knows how to win the roses. Of course, he will need to buck history to be successful. Since 1882, no horse has won the Kentucky Derby without racing as a 2-year-old! DULLAHAN Despite finishing fourth in the BC Juvenile behind Hansen, Union Rags and Creative Cause, Dullahan didn t get much love in the Future Wager. He closed at 23-1 odds. That s probably because his connections played their cards close to the vest until the Blue Grass when he roared from off the pace to catch Hansen and win the race. Dullahan s only other start at three was a runner-up effort to Howe Great on the turf at Gulfstream in the Palm Beach March 11. He ll likely get plenty of support come Derby day and his late-running style ought to fit well in this lineup. KENTUCKY DERBY Wagering Guide Updates Available Online Daily Beginning Tuesday, May 1

7 California Dreamin by Bob Neumeier NBC Sports Reporter ANALYSIS: Even a biased, east-coast Bostonian like me can see that the Golden State of California offers three of the top hopefuls for the 2012 Kentucky Derby. BODEMEISTER, CREATIVE CAUSE and I LL HAVE ANOTHER all sport solid credentials with excellent speed figures and distance pedigrees to match. Mom and Dad Baffert should dress son Bode with a snappy blazer and a cute bow tie for a winner s circle photo for the ages if his colt can match that Arkansas Derby tour-de-force. However, with only three weeks to recover from that race, the bounce backers will be lining up around the block, predicting that BODEMEISTER will regress and bounce as if he were on a trampoline. If not Bode Baffert can smile and say cheese. MAIN CONTENDERS: Should BODEMEISTER win the Kentucky Derby, he will make history for having zero 2-year-old races on his resume. But recent Derby winners have been tossing historical trends where they belong----in the nearest trash bin. Should he bounce, Santa Anita Derby grads CREATIVE CAUSE or I LL HAVE ANOTHER will be waiting to pounce. And don t sleep on crafty conditioner Dale Romans with DULLAHAN, hoping against hope that his rider Kent Desormeaux can weave his way through a 20-horse cavalry charge. VALUE PLAYS: Speed figures suggest that MARK VALESKI could be an overlay of the century (30-1 or higher?). Comparative handicappers will dismiss him after poor showings by his two latest conquerors and an iffy pedigree. Still, the price will be right. DADDY NOSE BEST and TAKE CHARGE INDY might also be overlooked at the windows. WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100): $20 Win: BODEMEISTER ($20) $10 Exacta Part-Wheel: BODEMEISTER with CREATIVE CAUSE and I LL HAVE ANOTHER ($20) $1 Trifecta Box: BODEMEISTER, CREATIVE CAUSE, I LL HAVE ANOTHER, DULLAHAN and MARK VALESKI ($60) Synthetic-to-Derby Trifecta Kentucky Derby trifectas in four of the last five years have included at least one horse that had prepped most recently on a synthetic surface. Street Sense and Animal Kingdom won after the surface switch, Hard Spun, Pioneer of the Nile and Paddy O Prado all hit the board. PICKS 1. BODEMEISTER 2. creative cause 3. I LL HAVE ANOTHER 4. DULLAHAN Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin May 1 Stats & Trends: WIN-PLACE-SHOW ODDS (Last 25 years, Odds to $1) Win Odds Average: to-1 High: (Mine That Bird, 2009) Low: 2.30 (Fusaichi Pegasus, 2000) Notable: 4 of last 10 Derby winners were 20-to-1 or more Place Odds Average: High: (Closing Argument, 2005) Low:.80 (Easy Goer-entry, 1989) Notable: Favorites have been second 3 times in last 25 years. Show Odds Average: High: (Mane Minister, 1991) Low:.80 (Awe Inspiring-entry, 1989) Notable: The last favorite to finish third was Indian Charlie in EXACTA PAYOFFS (Last 25 years, $2 Payoffs) Average: $ High: $9, (Giacomo-Closing Argument, 2005) Low: $15.20 (Sunday Silence-Easy Goer, 1989) Notable: Since the mutuel field was abolished in 2001, the average exacta has paid $1, Know This: Florida s Finest 5 of the last 6 Kentucky Derby winters spent the bulk of their 3-year-old winter-spring seasons stabled in the state of Florida. New Mexico-based Mine That Bird in 2009 was the only exception.

8 EXOTIC WAGERING CHART Kentucky Derby exotic wagers usually produce hefty payoffs. Use this handy Exotic Wagering Chart to help plan your attack. exacta box: ($2 Wager) 2 horse box... $4 3 horse box...$12 4 horse box...$24 5 horse box...$40 6 horse box...$60 7 horse box...$84 8 horse box...$112 exacta wheel: ($2 Wager) One Horse with All 6 horse field... $10 7 horse field... $12 8 horse field... $14 9 horse field... $16 10 horse field...$18 trifecta box: ($1 Wager) 3 Horse Box... $6 4 Horse Box... $24 5 Horse Box...$60 6 Horse Box...$120 7 Horse Box...$210 8 Horse Box...$336 trifecta wheels: ($1 Wager) One Horse with All with All (Example: 1/All/All or All/1/All or All/All/1) 7 Horse Field...$30 8 Horse Field...$42 9 Horse Field...$56 10 Horse Field...$72 One Horse with Two Horses with All (Example: 1/2/All or 2/1/All or 1/All/2 or 2/a All ll/1 or All/1/2 or All/2/1) 7 Horse Field...$10 8 Horse Field...$12 9 Horse Field...$14 10 Horse Field...$16 trifecta keys: ($1 Wager) 1 Horse with 3 others... $6 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4/ 2, 3, 4) 1 Horse with 4 others...$12 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5/ 2, 3, 4, 5) 1 Horse with 5 others...$20 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) 1 Horse with 6 others...$30 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) 1 Horse with 7 others...$42 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8) Superfecta box: ($1 Wager) 4 Horse Box...$24 5 Horse Box...$120 6 Horse Box...$360 Superfecta wheels: ($1 Wager) One Horse with All with All with All 7 Horse Field.... $120 8 Horse Field....$210 9 Horse Field....$ Horse Field...$504 (Example: 1/All/All/All or All/1/All/All or All/All/1/All or All/ All/ All/1) One Horse with Two Horses with All with All 7 Horse Field.... $40 8 Horse Field.... $60 9 Horse Field....$84 10 Horse Field...$112 (Example: 1/ 2/ All/ All or 2/ 1/ All/ All or 1/ All/ All/ 2 or 2/ All/ All/ 1 or All/ All/ 1/ 2 or All/ All/ 2/ 1) Superfecta Keys: ($1 Wager) 1 Horse with 3 others... $6 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4) 1 Horse with 4 others... $24 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5) 1 Horse with 5 others... $60 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6) 1 Horse with 6 others...$120 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) 1 Horse with 7 others...$210 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8) KENTUCKY DERBY Wagering Guide Updates Available Online Daily Beginning Tuesday, May 1

9 Dullahan Crashes Party Late by Mike Battaglia NBC Sports Analyst ANALYSIS: With horses like HANSEN, BODEMEISTER and now TRINNIBERG, it seems likely that there will be a very fast pace. This scenario should set it up nicely for the stalkers like GEMOLOGIST and CREATIVE CAUSE, and the closers DULLAHAN and UNION RAGS. Like any Derby with 20 horses, it could come down to which horse gets the best trip. Post positions could come into play, so if one of the speed horses gets a nice draw outside of the others, he could be dangerous. But this Derby should go to one of the closers. MAIN CONTENDERS: UNION RAGS, BODEMEISTER, DULLAHAN, and GEMOLOGIST. I think the winner will come from these four. UNION RAGS was everyone s favorite before the Florida Derby. He did have some trouble in that one, but if he was as good as I thought going in, he would have overcome that. BODEMEISTER was awesome in Arkansas, but Bob Baffert had to have him at his peak because if he didn t win, he wouldn t even be in the Derby. Can he duplicate that performance? DULLAHAN and GEMOLOGIST both won impressively and are eligible to move forward. VALUE PLAYS: WENT THE DAY WELL will be trying to make it two in a row for Team Valor, Graham Motion and John Velazquez and should be the same price or higher than Animal Kingdom was last year. He looks like he can handle the mile and one-quarter. DADDY NOSE BEST also will be running at the end, and 20-1 on a Steve Asmussen runner is always an appealing play. WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100): $26 Exacta Box: DULLAHAN and GEMOLOGIST ($52) $4 Trifecta Key: DULLAHAN over GEMOLOGIST, UNION RAGS, WENT THE DAY WELL and either HANSEN or BODEMEISTER, whichever one gets the most favorable draw ($48) Online Updates, Workout Reports Begin May 1 Make sure to top-off your knowledge by accessing Xpressbet s Kentucky Derby Wagering Guide Online Updates beginning May 1. Updates are free and include revised expert analysis and selections based on weather, post positions, etc, and Johnny D s in-depth, horse-by-horse Derby analysis. New this year: Online updates also will include observations from renowned clocker Gary Young, who is on-track at Churchill Downs. PICKS 1. DULLAHAN 2. GEMOLOGIST 3. UNION RAGS 4. WENT THE DAY WELL Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin May 1 Stats & Trends: TRIFECTA PAYOFFS (Since 1995, $2 Payoffs) Average: $14, High: $133, (Giacomo- Closing Argument- Afleet Alex, 2005) Low: $ (Silver Charm-Captain Bodgit- Free House, 1997) Notable: 11 of 17 Derby trifectas have paid $1,200 or more for $2. SUPERFECTA PAYOFFS (Since 1996, $1 Payoffs) Average: $102, High: $864, (Giacomo-Closing Argument-Afleet Alex- Don t Get Mad, 2005) Low: $ (Silver Charm-Captain Bodgit- Free House-Pulpit, 1997) Notable: 7 of the last 8 fourth-place finishers have been 23-1 or more. HIGHEST-PRICED SUPER FINISHERS (Last 20 Years, Odds to $1) Odds Horse Year Fin Closing Argument nd Mine That Bird st Giacomo st Limehouse th Know This: Oaklawn Super Finishers At least one horse who prepped at Oaklawn has finished in the Kentucky Derby superfecta each of the past 8 years, starting with 2004 champ Smarty Jones through last year s runner-up Nehro. Bodemeister, Sabercat and Optimizer are Oaklawnprepped possible starters this year.

10 Derby Bodes Well for Baffert by Jeff Siegel HRTV Analyst ANALYSIS: The Apollo Factor reminds us that it s been 130 years since the Kentucky Derby has been won by a colt that failed to make a start as a 2-year-old. It may be the only elimination rule remaining for those who always have preferred to arrive at their Derby selection not by applying standard handicapping theories, but by employing historical axioms. The rule eliminates BODEMEISTER, who probably is no better than some others who have tried and failed Curlin and Forego come to mind but on pure form, he s a stick out. And that fact trumps all. MAIN CONTENDERS: BODEMEISTER is fastest on speed figures, he s bred to stay forever, he s lightly raced with plenty of room for further improvement, and he s trained by a guy who knows how to win a Kentucky Derby. Though not as fast in the speed figure department, GEMOLOGIST is almost as impressive as BODEMEISTER on paper. The son of Tiznow is unbeaten in five career starts, two of which have come over the Churchill Downs main track. And DULLAHAN looks like the best of the climax runners; he s far more accomplished at this stage than his half-brother, Mine That Bird, who shocked the world in the 2009 Derby. VALUE PLAYS: Derby entrants that seem better than rated include WENT THE DAY WELL, the winner of the same prep race (Spiral) for the same trainer (Graham Motion) who won last year s Derby; DADDY NOSE BEST, a deep closing, improving colt who should relish 10 furlongs; and EL PADRINO, an off-track freak whose stock will rise dramatically should the rains come. WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100): $46 Win: BODEMEISTER ($46) $5 Exacta Box: BODEMEISTER, GEMOLOGIST and DULLAHAN ($30) $4 Exacta Box: BODEMEISTER, GEMOLOGIST and WENT THE DAY WELL ($24) Stats & Trends: Final Prep Winners to Win Derby Race Horse Year Arkansas Derby Smarty Jones 2004 Blue Grass Strike the Gold 1991 Florida Derby Big Brown 2008 Fountain of Youth Thunder Gulch 1995 Illinois Derby War Emblem 2002 Lexington Charismatic 1999 Louisiana Derby Grindstone 1996 Santa Anita Derby Sunday Silence 1989 Spiral Animal Kingdom 2011 Wood Memorial Fusaichi Pegasus 2000 Winning Derby Post Positions (Since 1900) Post Wins Post Wins Know This: Remember the Wood? Wood Memorial alumni are a paltry 16: in the Kentucky Derby since Funny Cide and Empire Maker swept the exacta in Last year, the Wood didn t produce a single Kentucky Derby starter. This year s potential Derby starters who are Wood Memorial graduates are Gemologist and Alpha. PICKS 1. BODEMEISTER 2. GEMOLOGIST 3. DULLAHAN 4. WENT THE DAY WELL Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin May 1

11 I ll Have Another Gets Another by Jon White HRTV & Santa Anita Analyst ANALYSIS: Can BODEMEISTER become the first horse since Apollo (1882) to capture the Kentucky Derby without racing at 2? Will BODEMEISTER regress after just three weeks since his Arkansas Derby victory? Perhaps. But I see this as a wide-open race. Keep in mind Fountain of Youth winner UNION RAGS has lost two of his last three. I think Santa Anita Derby winner I LL HAVE ANOTHER can be first or second with a furlong to go. That would put him in a prime position to win the roses since 46 of the last 49 Derby winners have been first or second a furlong out. MAIN CONTENDERS: BODEMEISTER boasts the highest Beyer Speed Figure (108) and has recorded three straight triple-digit figures. No other Kentucky Derby candidate has earned more than a single triple-digit Beyer. BODEMEISTER, UNION RAGS, I LL HAVE ANOTHER, Wood Memorial winner GEMOLOGIST and Blue Grass winner DULLAHAN all merit respect. VALUE PLAYS: Two wins at 1 1/8 miles plus a 100 Beyer in the Sunland Derby could equal a Kentucky Derby triumph at a sweet price for DADDY NOSE BEST. EL PADRINO also is dangerous and probably will be a juicy number. EL PADRINO ran fourth in the Florida Derby, but he s the only Kentucky Derby candidate other than BODEMEISTER and DADDY NOSE BEST to have recorded a triple-digit Beyer. WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100): $20 Win: I LL HAVE ANOTHER ($20) $2 Exacta Box: CREATIVE CAUSE, DADDY NOSE BEST, EL PADRINO, I LL HAVE ANOTHER, UNION RAGS ($40) $2 Exacta Box: ALPHA, CREATIVE CAUSE, GEMOLOGIST, I LL HAVE ANOTHER, TAKE CHARGE INDY ($40) White s Line Here is Jon White s very early Derby line: 4-1 Bodemeister 12-1 Hansen 9-2 Union Rags 12-1 I ll Have Another 6-1 Gemologist 20-1 Daddy Nose Best 8-1 Creative Cause 20-1 El Padrino 8-1 Dullahan 30-1 Daddy Long Legs 10-1 Take Charge Indy 30-1 Mark Valeski 12-1 Alpha 30-1 Trinniberg 30-1 Went the Day Well 50-1 Done Talking 50-1 Liaison 50-1 Optimizer 50-1 Prospective 50-1 Rousing Sermon 50-1 Sabercat Stats & Trends: 3-Y-O Maiden & Derby Winners (Since 1933) Maiden Win Horse May 6, 1933 Broker s Tip* Feb. 8, 1967 Proud Clarion Feb. 3, 2001 Monarchos Jan. 17, 1958 Tim Tam Jan. 12, 1967 Lucky Debonair Jan. 5, 1940 Gallahadion Jan. 3, 1949 Ponder Jan. 2, 2000 Fusaichi Pegasus *Won Kentucky Derby as Maiden Worst Final-Prep Finish to Win Derby (Since 1906) Fin. Horse Year 12th Stone Street th Iron Liege th Count Turf th Doneraile th Pink Star 1907 Birthplaces of Derby Winners Winners State/Country 104 Kentucky 6 Florida 4 Virginia 3 California 3 Tennessee 2 New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Texas, Canada, England Know This: Time on their Side Since 1929, there have been only 5 Derby winners who had more than a month off before winning the roses. Amazingly, 3 of the 5 have come in the past 4 years and 4 in the past 6 years. PICKS 1. I LL HAVE ANOTHER 2. DADDY NOSE BEST 3. CREATIVE CAUSE 4. UNION RAGS Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin May 1

12 Union Rags Fills the Prescription by Dick Jerardi Philadelphia Daily News Columnist ANALYSIS: There have not been this many solid, consistent Derby prospects in years. Nine of the 14 from the 2011 Breeders Cup Juvenile have won 2012 stakes. However, two horses that did not even run in that race, the brilliantly fast BODEMEISTER and unbeaten GEMOLOGIST, are going to be among the top choices. With the late decision to run TRINNIBERG, this race has serious early speed, which should please all the trainers of the offthe-pace and closing types. The first turn, as usual, is going to be critical. The contenders that get position there will be most dangerous. MAIN CONTENDERS: UNION RAGS has the speed to get into the race and the move to be there at the eighth pole, a prescription for Derby success. BODEMEISTER is the only horse in the race with more than one triple-digit Beyer figure. And he has three. His dominating Arkansas Derby win was easily the most impressive Derby prep. Wood Memorial winner GEMOLOGIST has improved his Beyer figure in each of his five starts, all victories. HANSEN is always dangerous because he has killer speed. DULLAHAN was flying at the finish of his Blue Grass win when he ran HANSEN down in the stretch. CREATIVE CAUSE has never run a bad race in eight starts. Santa Anita Derby winner I LL HAVE ANOTHER should be among the talented crowd fighting for position on the first turn. VALUE PLAYS: CREATIVE CAUSE could be one of the many terrific horses that is overlooked because you can t bet them all. By Giant s Causeway, this colt certainly looks like the distance should not be an issue. Showed big turn-acceleration when a solid second in the Santa Anita Derby. WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100): $1 Superfecta Key: UNION RAGS over CREATIVE CAUSE, DULLAHAN, GEMOLOGIST, BODEMEISTER and I LL HAVE ANOTHER ($60) $40 Exacta: UNION RAGS over CREATIVE CAUSE ($40) Changing History? BODEMEISTER will attempt to become the first horse since Apollo (1882) to win the Kentucky Derby without racing at age 2. Since 1956, Kentucky Derby starters who did not race at age 2 are 0-for-48. Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Agitate, third in 1974, Reinvested, third in 1982 and Curlin, third in 2007, finished better than fourth. Forego ( 73), Amano ( 76), Pulpit ( 97) and Atswhatimtalknabout ( 03) were fourth. PICKS 1. UNION RAGS 2. CREATIVE CAUSE 3. BODEMEISTER 4. DULLAHAN Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin May 1 Stats & Trends: 2011 Derby Handle Totals (Handle in Millions Except Hi-5 & P6) Pool Handle Win/Place/Show $46.10 Exacta $20.50 Trifecta $24.90 Superfecta $9.90 Super High Five $272,178 Pick Four $2.29 Oaks/Derby Double $2.20 Pick Six $847,131 Lowest-Priced Derby Favorites (Last 20 Years, Odds to $1) Odds Horse Year Fin..90 Arazi th 1.80 Point Given th 2.20 Holy Bull th 2.30 Fusaichi Pegasus st 2.40 Big Brown st Highest-Priced Derby Favorites in History (Odds to $1) Odds Horse Year Fin Lookin At Lucky th 6.00 Harlan s Holiday th 5.50 Sweetnorthernsaint th 5.20 Dialed In th 4.90 Street Sense st 4.80 General Challenge/ th Excellent Meeting 4.40 Prairie Bayou nd 4.10 Smarty Jones st Know This: Two is Timely Each of the past 5 Kentucky Derby winners had just 2 preps as 3-year-olds, namely Street Sense, Big Brown, Mine That Bird, Super Saver and Animal Kingdom.

13 Time for Romans Conquest by Steve Byk At the Races with Steve Byk (SiriusXM) Host ANALYSIS: A tumultuous run-up to the Triple Crown season has left the 2012 Derby with more uncertainty than usual as the BC Juvenile trifecta and winter-book heavyweights HANSEN, UNION RAGS and CREATIVE CAUSE suffered armor-denting defeats en route to Kentucky. A host of emergent, well-connected players, including BODEMEISTER, GEMOLOGIST, I LL HAVE ANOTHER, DADDY NOSE BEST, TAKE CHARGE INDY and DULLAHAN, all arrive at the Downs with solid credentials, enthusiastic supporters and legitimate cases to wear the rose blanket. MAIN CONTENDERS: Identifying the contenders is easy with the 9 above all capable. Question is how to approach the wagering once the post positions are drawn and a pace scenario established. The presence of fleet TRINNIBERG compromises a moderate early pace for HANSEN and/ or BODEMEISTER with the prompting presence of I LL HAVE ANOTHER, TAKE CHARGE INDY and GEMOLOGIST. Second flight contenders, led by UNION RAGS, will attack in the final half-mile as closers reach contention. With a meltdown highly possible, DULLAHAN, a half-brother to Mine That Bird and from the team that finished 3rd with Paddy O Prado in 2010, looms the choice to run by them all. VALUE PLAYS: Since 2006, top Oaklawn prep finishers have compiled a Derby record of 6: and rallying SABERCAT can charge the exotics. EL PADRINO has the attractive post-hype look of a horse heralded in February and forgotten in April and trainer Todd Pletcher has authored two big tote Derby placements before with Bluegrass Cat and Invisible Ink. DONE TALKING and ROUSING SERMON are blueprints for the kind of runners that annually fill out the super at WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100): $4 Exacta Part-Wheel: DULLAHAN with EL PADRINO, SABERCAT, UNION RAGS, BODEMEISTER, HANSEN, TAKE CHARGE INDY, GEMOLOGIST, I LL HAVE ANOTHER, DADDY NOSE BEST and MARK VALESKI ($40) $1 Superfecta Part-Wheel: DULLAHAN with EL PADRINO, SABERCAT, UNION RAGS, BODEMEISTER, HANSEN, TAKE CHARGE INDY with EL PADRINO, SABERCAT, UNION RAGS, BODEMEISTER, HANSEN, TAKE CHARGE INDY with DONE TALKING and ROUSING SERMON ($60) PICKS Stats & Trends: No April Prep (Since 1920) Starts 1st 2nd 3rd First: Animal Kingdom (2011) Mine That Bird (2009) Big Brown (2008) Needles (1956) Second: Ice Box (2010) Hard Spun (2007) Staretor (1941) Third: Mucho Macho Man (2011) Perfect Drift (2002) Candy Spots (1963) Fastest Derbies Time Horse Year 1:59 2/5 Secretariat :59 4/5 Monarchos :00 Northern Dancer :00 1/5 Spend A Buck :00 2/5 Decidedly 1962 Wire-to-Wire Derby Winners (Last 50 Years) Year Horse Choice Field Half 2002 War Emblem 9th 18 47: Winning Colors 2nd 17 46:4/ Spend A Buck 2nd 13 45:4/ Bold Forbes 2nd 9 45:4/ Riva Ridge Fav :3/ Kauai King Fav :1/5 Know This: Smile for the Camera Each of the last 7 Derbies has been decided by more than 2 lengths, including Animal Kingdom s 2-3/4 length score in The last time the photo-finish camera was used was in 1999 when Charismatic and Menifee hit the wire together. 1. DULLAHAN 2. EL PADRINO 3. SABERCAT 4. DONE TALKING Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin May 1

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