20 HANDICAP SYSTEMS. Summer Jumps 2015

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1 20 HANDICAP SYSTEMS Summer Jumps 2015 Gavin Priestley NagNagNag Publications 2015

2 Introduction First of all, congratulations and thank you for trying my Top 20 Handicap Systems Guide for the Summer Jumps Season In this Guide I have thoroughly researched 20 Systems that when applied to the handicap races that take part in the Summer Jumps Season have proved extremely profitable to follow over the last 5 years. But the key to this guide is that most of the systems in their basic form have a record that is negative overall. That is, if you d simply bet all of those qualifiers, you d have made a loss. However, by carefully selecting specific types of horse to which the systems favour my Top 20 Handicap Guide provides a unique insight that is not available anywhere else. The 20 Systems that are included in this Guide begin by simply looking at the National Hunt Trainers that have been profitable to follow during the Summer months (July - September). I've gone through their records to find the type of race they have been targeting and the type of horse they've been doing it with. The next section in the book simply extends this premise to have a look at very specific race conditions (odds, age, class, distance etc.) certain trainers have excelled in. Next I had a look at those horses that won their last start and the type of race that have the best records for providing winners. I then went on to research which particular type of race and race conditions winners had run in on their previous start. For every system I have clearly marked the rules and operating criteria that each qualifier will need to satisfy along with the results for every runner over the last 5 Seasons. I have tried to include only those systems that were able to show a profit for every one of the last 5 years but there are a very small number of exceptions. All of the 20 Systems have though shown a profit of at least 20pts for the same time period and all bar 1 of the 20 Systems managed at least a 33% strike rate over the last 5 Seasons However, do please note that due to the statistical nature of this information, losing runs can occur. I recommend a betting bank to begin with of at least 50 points. That is, if you normally bet 5, then a bank of 250 should be used. If you normally bet, 20, then 1000 bank is recommended, and so on. Whether you to decide to back the systems that have the highest ratings and profits, back those systems that appeal to you or simply back every runner from every system it is entirely up to you but below you ll find a short section on how to use the systems, which I hope you'll find both useful and easy to use. If however you have any questions or comments on anything you see or read here, do please contact me at gavin@nag-nag-nag.co.uk Congratulations again on your purchase, and good luck! Gavin Priestley. You can find out more about me, and follow my day to day antics at my blog:

3 User s Guide In putting this guide together, I have tried to make things as easy as possible. However, there are one or two terms which newcomers may not understand, and so here is a glossary of terms and their meanings. Term All NH Meaning All runners for this trainer at this track Races run under National Hunt rules (Hurdles and 'Chases) Handicap, H'cap A race for horses where they are given weight according to their rating Class Every race is given a Class and go from the best (Cl. 1) to the lowest (Cl. 7) yo F or Furlong Filly Conditional Jockey SP Novice Short for year old, as in 3yo. The age of the horse. Distance in which racing is measured. Races are run from 5 furlongs up Female horse under 5yo An inexperienced jockey who is given a weight allowance when riding in certain races. Sometimes called 'claimers' or 'claiming jockey' Starting Price. Odds of a particular horse. A horse that started the Season without a win in the type of race now contested (i.e. hurdles or chase To find the system horses, simply check your newspaper daily for the relevant trainers and/or race types and, if there s a qualifier that satisfies all the criteria, it s a bet! It s as easy as that. But remember, we are only betting between July 1st and September 30th, which I've classified as the Summer Jumps season. A word on s s are awarded to any trainer who has achieved one or more of the following over the last five years ( ), from July 1st to September 30th under the relevant criteria. > 15 or more winners at the track > Strike Rate of 33.3% or more (1 in 3 strike rate) > A profit of 30 units or more to a 1 unit stake > A profit of 1.15 units per runner to a 1 unit stake > At least one winner a year for the last 5 years. And for those ultra consistent systems: > + At least 2 winners for each of the last 5 Seasons > ++ At least 3 winners for each of the last 5 Seasons The more s and +'s the higher the confidence factor associated with that system. The most a system can therefore be awarded is ++ or the coveted 5 ++ system..and DON'T FORGET, ALL THESE SYSTEMS ARE FOR HANDICAP RACES ONLY!!

4 1) TOP H'CAP TRAINER NIGEL TWISTON-DAVIES The first of our two main trainers in the guide has long been profitable to follow during the Summer Jumps Season. By backing his older horses in a specific grade of handicap we would have had at least one winner and made a profit in each of the last 5 Seasons. A very simple but effective trainer system to get us started... Rules for System (72% Ranked 4th best system of 20) All his 7-11yo's in Class 4 Handicaps from July 1st September 30th % % % % % % % % % % Total % % 2) TOP HANDICAP TRAINER MRS LAWNEY HILL Our other trainer to follow throughout the Summer Jumps Season isn't quite as well known as Nigel Twiston-Davies but she also has a record of having had at least one winner in each of the last 5 years with this type of horse. Her high profit figure is due mainly to her record in 2013 but even forgetting that fantastic year this still looks a trainer system worth following. Rules for System (69.5% Ranked =5th of 20) Male 7-11yo's in Class 4 or 5 handicaps, rated 106 or below that have run in the last 7 weeks % % % % % % % % % % Total % %

5 3) 'CHASE HANDICAPS MRS DIANNE SAYER Another lesser known yard that had a stellar year in This trainer system concentrates on handicap chases only but is easy to operate and has provided good profits for the 4 years there have been qualifiers since Rules for System (57% Ranked 16th of 20) 7yo's and older with 11 or more Chase starts. Run in the last week 6 weeks (7-42 days) % % % % % % % % Total % % 4) NOVICE HANDICAPS EVAN WILLIAMS Up until last year Evan Williams looked like a trainer to follow in Novice Handicaps with a very high strike rate and decent enough profits between He only had one such runner last year and although it got beat I'm willing to give him another chance based on his previous results. Rules for System (47% Ranked 20th of 20) All his male runners in Class 3 and 4 novice handicaps that have not been dropped in class % % % % % % % % % % Total % %

6 5) RECENT RUN D. McCAIN Jnr. This looks a cracking system to follow this Summer with an excellent strike rate, consistent profit figures and at least 1 winner a year in each of the last 5 Seasons. It focuses on the McCain horses that are turned out again quickly after their last start making it easy to find the relevant qualifiers. Rules for System (65% Ranked 7th of 20) All his 4-7yo's carrying or less in a handicap that have run in the last 20 days % % % % % % % % % % Total % % 6) MINIMUM TRIP (2M/2M½F) TIM VAUGHAN If you've got the time to work out these qualifiers then you should be rewarded with some nice winners. It probably sounds a little more complicated than it actually is but remember we're only interested in his handicap runners over the minimum trip and we're only running this system for the first two months of the Summer Jumps Season (July and August). Rules for System (56% Ranked 18th of 20) Male runners in Class 3-5 handicaps carrying that are not dropped in class (July-Aug) % % % % % % % % % % Total % %

7 7) MIDDLE DISTANCE (2M3F-3M) H'CAPS D. PIPE This particular trainer system has the sort of results I like to look for when compiling my guides. For each of the last 5 years the figures have remained pretty much the same and shown good profits along the way. I think we can safely expect more of the same this year... Rules for System + (59% Ranked 13th of 20) Finished 2nd or 3rd in the same class of handicap on their last start % % % % % % % % % % Total % % 8) LONG DISTANCE (3M+) HANDICAPS JJ O'NEILL This looks one of the best of the specialist trainer systems in this guide and is one I'm really looking forward to trying this summer. It has been churning out a steady stream of winners over the last 5 years and it shouldn't take too long to find the Jonjo O'Neill qualifiers. Rules for System ++ (78% Ranked 1st of 20) Male 5-9yo's rated 121 or under that had their last run in a handicap in the last days % % % % % % % % % % Total % %

8 9) FANCIED RUNNERS ANTHONY HONEYBALL Probably the easiest system to operate in this guide. We're simply looking for any Anthony Honeyball handicap runner that is fancied in the betting. These types have been running well for the last 4 years and should once again provide us with a decent return on our investment. Rules for System (54.5% Ranked 19th of 20) All Anthony Honeyball handicap runners at 6/1 or under % % % % % % % % Total % % 10) OUTSIDERS CHRIS GORDON Chris Gordon may not be a household name in the trainer ranks but he has an uncanny knack of getting big priced horses into the winners enclosure. As we're talking bigger prices I've relaxed the strike rate constraints a little, although 1 in 5 is still pretty decent! And just look at those profit numbers and placed runners... Rules for System (74% Ranked 2nd of 20) All his 6-9yo's in Class 4 or 5 handicaps with more than 10 career starts % % % % % % % % % % Total % %

9 11) JULY ONLY PETER BOWEN This looks a nice trainer system to get this years guide off to a flyer. We'll back his runners for the first month only before handing over the reins to Phillip Hobbs (see below). It's another system that has some consistency to it and has shown a decent return over the last 5 years. Rules for System + ( 73% Ranked 3rd of 20) Class 2-4 h'caps up to 3m2f: Peter Bowen 4-8yo's that have run in the previous 6 47 days % % % % % % % % % % Total % % 12) AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER PHILLIP HOBBS We'll leave Hobbs on the sidelines for the first month and then back his handicap chasers coming back after a month off the track. Another really easy system to follow which should hopefully make us a profit. Rules for System (56.5% Ranked 17th of 20) All Hobbs handicap chasers that last ran in a handicap during the previous days % % % % % % % % % % Total % %

10 The next set of systems move away from specific trainers and instead concentrate on a particular type of horse that do well in Summer Jumps Handicaps. The runners from these systems all won their last race and included races from both the UK and Ireland. Here you can see simply backing horses that won their last race is NOT a profitable system: Bets Wins Win Strike SP_PL Places Place Strike % % 13) WON A HANDICAP CHASE LAST TIME OUT A nice easy system that has shown good figures for the last 4 seasons... Rules for System (62.5% Ranked 10th of 20) All male 6-9yo's running in handicap chases that last ran between 2 months 8 months ago % % % % % % % % % % Total % % 14) WON LAST TIME OUT ON THE FLAT Here we're simply looking for those horses running again quickly after a flat success... Rules for System (58.5% Ranked 14th of 20) All 6 and 7yo's rated under 125 that have won on the flat within the last 28 days % % % % % % % % % % Total % %

11 15) WON A NH SELLER OR CLAIMER LAST TIME OUT Winning in a lower grade hasn't been that much of a barrier to success in handicap company for these types over the last 5 years Rules for System (60% Ranked 11th of 20) All runners rated with6 18 career starts (flat and NH) % % % % % % % % % % Total % % 16) WON IN THE LAST 4 5 DAYS I always like to look out for horses that are reappearing quickly after a win and it seems these types of runners are the ones that have the best record. Rules for System (63% Ranked =8th of 20) All male handicap chase runners that are reappearing having won in the last 4 or 5 days % % % % % % % % % % Total % %

12 The next couple of systems look at certain races the horses competed in last time out without necessarily winning... 17) RAN IN A GRADE 1 RACE LAST TIME OUT Horses that ran in the highest grade and are then dropped down into handicap company seems like a logical system to follow and by backing these types over the last 5 years you would have had a decent return on your investment. Rules for System (59.5% Ranked 12th of 20) 2m 2m6f H'caps: 5 10yo's with 35 or less career starts that have run in the last days % % % % % % % % % % Total % % 18) BEATEN FAVOURITE IN A NH H'CAP LAST TIME This is another system that seems logical to follow as it relies on a well fancied horse that just got beat last time out being given a rest before trying again. Over the last 4 years it's been a very profitable system and has thrown up plenty of winners. Rules for System + (69.5% Ranked =5th of 20) All 4-7yo's that finished 2nd - 4th when favourite in the last day period % % % % % Total % %

13 Our last 2 main systems simply focus on a specific type of runner that have proved profitable to follow over the last 5 Summer Jumps Seasons. 19) TOPWEIGHTS WITH A 3LB CLAIMER RIDING It makes sense for a trainer to try and lessen the burden on his runners that are set to carry topweight in a handicap and it also makes sense to use the best jockeys to help him do this. Which is where the idea came for this system. The results look good and at least one winner looks assured for this Summer. Rules for System (63% Ranked =8th of 20) All 7yo's in handicap chases that have been rested at least 6 days % % % % % % % % % % Total % % 20) HANDICAP HAT-TRICK SEEKERS It's easy to see the logic behind this system. We're simply looking for those runners who have won their last two handicap starts i.e. in form horses that are infront of the handicapper. We probably won't be getting big prices on these runners but they have been winning at a consistent rate over the last 5 years. Rules for System (58% Ranked 15th of 20) Male 4-6yo's who have won their last two starts in hcap company. Last ran days ago % % % % % % % % % % Total % %

14 BONUS SYSTEM HIGHLY PROFITABLE BUT QUESTIONABLE CRITERIA... FEMALES THAT PULLED UP ON THEIR LAST START While doing the research for this guide I stumbled across the following system. Although the profits look good and it's had at least 1 winner a year since 2010 the strike rate isn't great and it's a quite complex looking system. I won't include the runners in the profit / loss figures for the Season but will be keeping an eye on the runners via the selections page... Rules for System 2m½f 3m2f handicaps. Rested 11 days+ and rated 86+ when carrying or less % % % % % % % % % % Total % % DAILY SELECTIONS And for those of you who would like to have the Daily Qualifiers worked out for you then you can have access to the Daily Selections Page for all 3 months at the incredibly low price of just That s 5 a month, just over 1 a week or 16p a day! and helps pay for somebody to work out the qualifiers and post them to the website for me. A small price to pay for a Summer of fun punting. Click HERE (Ctrl+Click) to purchase your Access Pass NOW!

p.s. You can find out more about me, and follow my day to day antics at my blog:

p.s. You can find out more about me, and follow my day to day antics at my blog: 1 Gavin Priestley Introduction Welcome to Trainer Track Stats Lite (TTS Lite) 2016 Summer Editions. TTS has been the leading statistical analysis of racehorse trainer patterns for nearly a decade now and