Kentucky Oaks Day Stakes Analysis (races 8-11) and Betting Strategies

Transcription

1 Day 1 of the package includes the following: Oaks Day Stakes Analysis (races 8-11) and Betting Strategies Kentucky Oaks Pace Projector Preview Kentucky Derby Analysis (Betting Strategies will be added Friday by 3pm EDT) Kentucky Derby Pace Projector Preview Day 2 coverage will be posted by 3pm EDT Friday and will include Kentucky Derby Day Undercard Stakes Analysis and Betting Strategies for all Kentucky Derby Day Stakes. Kentucky Oaks Day Stakes Analysis (races 8-11) and Betting Strategies The Eight Belles Race 8 Friday 2:53 EDT By TimeformUS Chief Figure Maker Craig Milkowski The Grade 2 Eight Belles Stakes on Kentucky Oaks Day drew a full field of 14 3-year-old fillies. It is a seven-furlong contest on the dirt. It is rare that a field this large is not flagged by the TimeformUS Pace Projector as likely to have a fast pace, but that is the case here. In fact, it is only the large field that prevents the Favors Horses On/Near Early Lead label from appearing. There simply isn t much early speed in this race. None of the 14 has a TimeformUS Running Style of leader or speed, and only three are considered trackers. The TimeformUS Race Rating is 107. With those things in mind, let us wade through the field in post position order: #1, BENNER ISLAND (10-1): She disappointed last out as the 6-5 favorite in the Grade 3 Fantasy at Oaklawn Park. She turns back in distance for this one. She has won both of her dirt starts around one turn, including an allowance win over this Churchill strip. #2, UNION STRIKE (3-1): Won her maiden in the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante at this distance as a 2-year-old. She disappointed when stretched out in her next two tries and was given a fourmonth break. She returned in a small stakes race in a sprint and won from off the pace. The assigned 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the best any horse in this field has ever run by a full seven points. #3, LOVELY BERNADETTE (30-1): A stakes winner at 2 who has failed to move forward as a 3- year-old. Her lifetime-best TimeformUS Speed Figure of 93 is far below what it will take to win

2 this race, and her last two don t offer any signs of a return to her best form. She does add blinkers for this one. #4, PRETTY CITY DANCER (8-1): Yet another Grade 1 winner, she dead-heated for the win in the Spinaway at Saratoga. Her return to the races as a 3-year-old was promising. She finished a close second in the Grade 2 Forward Gal with a 101 speed figure. However, she has clearly regressed in her last two while never being a factor at any point. #5, GRIS GRIS (20-1): One of several in the field turning back in distance, but this one has yet to match the 97 she ran when winning her debut in six subsequent starts. #6, LANEY (20-1): It took a drop to maiden-claiming company to get her first win, but this one is moving in the right direction. She tried stakes company in Keeneland s Grade 3 Beaumont after a couple wins against lesser and ran a decent third while running a lifetime-best 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure. #7, GOLDEN MISCHIEF (12-1): Closed her 2-year-old season with a win in a minor stakes at Fair Grounds with a big 107 speed figure. She s run second in both starts at 3 while running in the high 90s both times. Neither of those races had much pace as can be seen by the blue fractions in TimeformUS PPs. She ran better than looked in both. #8, I MLUCKYSGIRL (30-1): Ships in off a distant third from what was a surprisingly strong race at Mahoning Valley. The winner ran a 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure, and the last-place finisher that day has already come back to romp in an allowance race. That said, her last-race 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure still isn t good enough to compete here. She ll need to improve several lengths. #9, FLORIDA FABULOUS (9-2): The morning-line third choice has won both career starts in wireto-wire fashion, both one-turn miles at Gulfstream. Both races are coded as favoring speed in TimeformUS PPs, one red and one pink. This one will almost assuredly be a pace factor. #10, GHALIA (7-2): Has done nothing wrong in her three-race career, winning each time while also stretching out in distance and improving her speed figures. She ran 104 last time and is likely to improve upon that here. #11, LET IT RIDE MOM (8-1): A head and a neck away from being undefeated in four starts, all over Woodbine s synthetic track. This is her 3-year-old debut after nearly six months on the sidelines. She has been working steadily for two months and has thrown in some big ones. #12, CHINA GROVE (30-1): Hasn t surpassed the 95 mark on TimeformUS Speed Figures in 10 career starts and has been well beaten in both of her graded stakes tries while never a factor. #13, WHAT WHAT WHAT (20-1): Career-best 100 speed figure last out when third in the Sunland Park Oaks, but was well beaten that day by Ghalia. She didn t win her maiden until her seventh start, all in maiden-claiming races. #14, CAJUN DELTA DAWN (15-1): Began her career ripping off four straight wins at Gulfstream as a 2-year-old before failing as she tried routing in her last two starts of the season. She hasn t

3 been seen since, about six months away, and trainer David Fawkes has a TimeformUS Trainer Rating of 43 with horses returning from a layoff compared to an 87 overall. She is likely to need one. The two morning-line favorites, Union Strike and Ghalia, are the most likely winners, but another horse could offer the best value. Let It Ride Mom. Her breeding indicates dirt shouldn t be a problem. Her 103 speed figure fits well in here outside of Union Stike s 114, but it looks even better if you consider it came in December of her 2-year-old season. Young, lightly raced horses generally improve about 1 to 1.5 points per month, and often more. That 103 could easily translate to a 110-plus, and the odds should be much better than the other two. THE PLAY Win: 11 Exacta Key Box: 11 with 2, 10 Race 8 pick 4 $2: 2,10,11 / 1,3,4,7,10,11,12,13 / 7 / 4 $1: 2,10,11 / 1,3,4,7,10,11,12,13 / 1,4 / 4 $1: 2,10,11 / 1,3,4,7,10,11,12,13 / 7 / 13, cents: 2,10,11 / 1,3,4,7,10,11,12,13 / 1,4 / 13,14 Allowance Optional Claiming Race Race 9 Friday 3:53 EDT By TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona Optional Claiming $62,500/N2X 1 1/16 Miles, Dirt, 3-year-olds and up Churchill Downs, Race 9, 3:53 PM (ET) Most Likely Winner: River Echo (#4) They re not making this late pick four easy on us! Rather than include one of the more straightforward Oaks Day stakes races in this sequence, Churchill Downs has chosen to elevate this nearly inscrutable optional-claiming race, which drew an oversubscribed field of 15. The competitors in this event are quite closely matched, and few of them have any experience over a wet track should that come into play making this field even harder to scrutinize. The tepid morning-line favorite is Tom s d Etat (#7), though also-eligible entrant Gangster (#13) is listed at the same price should he happen to draw into the race. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace to be set by one-dimensional front-runner Capital Letters (#6), who will be chased by Taketothestreets (#3), Tom s d Etat (#7), and Pinson (#11) in the early stages. Closers

4 like Goats Town (#12) and longshot Task Force Glory (#5) would benefit most from hotly contested opening fractions. Let s try to make some sense of this field: #1, NAVAL GAZER (12-1): This lightly raced 5-year-old has run his best speed figures over synthetic surfaces, but he s hardly been disgraced in his dirt races, including a couple of decent performances over this track. He finished just a length behind proven stakes performer General a Rod last June, but he s run infrequently since then. Perhaps it s a good sign that he s finally putting two races back to back after an encouraging return at Turfway in early April. One of many to consider. #2, VAPORMAN (30-1): He s never run a particularly fast race and has enjoyed he bulk of his success at lesser circuits. He s also getting a mildly negative trainer change from 84-rated conditioner Danny Pish to 60-rated trainer Pat Huffman. A longshot. #3, TAKETOTHESTREETS (6-1): Easily the old man in this field at 7-years-old, he s been quite consistent over the past couple seasons. He enjoyed a productive winter campaign at Oaklawn Park, where he won two of his three starts and defeated the well-regarded Goats Town in March. His connections took a shot in the Grade 3 Ben Ali, but he was simply overmatched against those horses. Now, he drops in for a tag while getting back to the same N2X level at which he won two back. His stalking style should have him chasing Capital Letters early. A logical contender. #4, RIVER ECHO (4-1): Despite the fact that this runner s pedigree is hardly crying out for dirt, switching to this surface has been the key to turning his life around. A disappointment racing on grass, he was dismissed at 21-1 in his main-track debut two back at Santa Anita. Yet he won that day in fast time, earning a formidable 95 Beyer Speed Figure and 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Moved up to this level last time, he backed up his strong dirt debut with another solid effort behind a good horse in Ike Walker. He had to wait in traffic for a long time approaching the stretch and lost momentum while the eventual winner blew past him on the outside. River Echo might have actually won that day had he been able to find a clear path sooner. The horse to beat by a slim margin. #5, TASK FORCE GLORY (30-1): The closer in this group began to launch a decent late run at Fair Grounds on Jan. 22 but was ridden into traffic down inside and forced to steady. He eventually came on again to be third, but might have won without that trouble. However, since then he s disappointed. He couldn t pick up his feet in the lane two back, and then he bombed on turf last time. Needs a pace meltdown. #6, CAPITAL LETTERS (12-1): This Ian Wilkes trainee is out of a half-sister to McCraken s dam, so a win by this guy could be a prelude of things to come on Saturday. He is the likely pacesetter in this group, since all of his best efforts have come when his riders use him aggressively in the early going. Yet, for a speed horse, he s not the quickest out of the gate and often takes about a furlong to get into full stride. That could be an issue in such a large field. He returned from a layoff at Tampa last time and was never able to get to the front after a poor start, finishing a dull fourth at odds of 3-5. Wilkes only gets a 51 Trainer Rating with runners making their second start off a layoff. Has talent but some reasons to be careful here.

5 #7, TOM S D ETAT (7-2): He really hasn t done much wrong in his brief career. After a failed turf experiment in his debut, he s put in nothing but strong efforts on dirt. A big, imposing colt with a long stride, he s wisely been aimed at two-turn races from the start. He returned from a lengthy layoff last time out at Fair Grounds and picked up right where he had left off at Saratoga last summer, impressively drawing away by almost four lengths. The waters get a bit deeper here, but he appears to have all the necessary tools to make this class jump. Won t offer value, but a top contender nonetheless. #8, GENERAL DOWNS (10-1): Like Tom s d Etat, he s another that won his maiden at Saratoga last summer. However, it s been a bumpier road since then for this horse. After a couple of dull efforts when he returned to action last fall, he finally got things back on track with a win in January. He was stepped up to this level last time, but was no match for a group of hardknocking older horses. He was off a bit slowly from the rail, and a moderate pace developed ahead of him, but he still should have had more of an answer in the stretch. Looks to be a cut below the best here. #9, DECORATED SOLDIER (8-1): He s one of four runners in this race exiting the seventh race March 19 at Oaklawn. Sent off as the favorite that day, he never seriously threatened while staying on to finish fourth. This Todd Pletcher trainee just has never taken that next step forward after winning Oaklawn s Northern Spur more than a year ago. He s likely to take some money once again due to his connections, but he just hasn t run well enough in recent months to be considered a strong contender. A win would be a surprise. #10, LANGDARMA (8-1): This gelding has turned out to be a fantastic claim for his connections, who picked him up for just $15,000 less than four months ago. Since then, he s earned checks in four straight races while recording two wins. A slow start hindered him two back, but he still came with a determined late run while just unable to catch the in-form Leofric. Last time, John Court was much more aggressive out of the gate and rode him into a forward early position. Those tactics worked quite well, as he still finished with the same vigor through the stretch on his way to recording a field-best 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He s stepping up in class once again, but who s to say that there isn t yet another forward move in him? Cannot be dismissed. #11, PINSON (12-1): He faced a few of Friday s rivals two back at Oaklawn on March 19 and never got involved while finishing well back in sixth. However, a closer inspection of his trip reveals that the performance was not as discouraging as it might seem. A horse that prefers to stalk the pace, he was placed too far back early. His rider tried to make a middle move into contention down the backstretch, but he ended up getting shuffled out of position as the field bunched up, losing momentum just as the real running began. All things considered, it was not a bad effort, and he bounced right back last time with one of the best performances of his career. On that occasion, jockey Corey Lanerie sent him up to contest a fast pace (indicated by red color-coding in PPs). All of the other horses involved in that pace finished far back, but Pinson kept finding more, only getting run down in the stretch by a runner that rallied from off the pace. Now, he gets a switch to top Churchill rider Julien Leparoux, for whom he s delivered strong efforts in the past. Can pull off an upset at a generous price. #12, GOATS TOWN (6-1): He s drawn a tricky post position, especially for a horse that will be looking to find a spot in midpack early. He s the most consistent runner in this race in terms of

6 speed figures. He always shows up with a solid effort. The only knock against him is that he rarely wins. He s now had five chances to break through this allowance condition, most recently finishing second by a half-length on two separate occasions at Oaklawn. While he finished off the board in his two graded stakes attempts during that meet, he was hardly shamed either time. He even briefly threatened to finish in the money in the Oaklawn Handicap last time after making a premature move to challenge for the lead on the far turn.dangerous in all exotics slots. #13-AE, GANGSTER (7-2): He certainly gets some class relief after taking shots in the Santa Anita Handicap and Charles Town Classic. However, it s hard to say exactly where he fits. He s run well on turf recently, but his dirt speed figures are a bit slower than those of the top contenders here. It s conceivable that this more realistic class level will allow him to run a faster race, but even if he gets in he ll have to deal with this problematic post position. Mixed signals. #14-AE, RICH DADDY (20-1): He s too cheap and not fast enough. A toss if he gets in. #15-AE, HOMESPUN HERO (8-1): He s unproven around two turns. He would be a pace factor if he gets into the race, making things difficult on Capital Letters, but it s hard to envision him being around at the finish. I ll pass. THE PLAY The horse to beat is probably River Echo (#4), but there are many that can win this race. Taketothestreets (#3), Tom s d Etat (#7), Langdarma (#10), Pinson (#11), and Goats Town (#12) are all strong contenders. Of those, Pinson figures to be the best price, and he is my longshot selection. However, I would recommend that anyone playing the pick four spread as much as possible in this leg. Win/Place: 11 Exacta Box: 4,7,10,11 Exacta Key Box: 11 with 1,3,12,13 Trifecta Key Box: 4,11 with 4,11 with 3,7,10,12 The Edgewood Stakes Race 10 Friday 5:04 EDT By TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona Grade 3 Edgewood 1 1/16 Miles, Turf, 3-year-old fillies Churchill Downs, Race 10, 5:04 PM (ET) Most Likely Winner: Proctor s Ledge (#7) The John Oxley-owned entry was installed as the heavy morning-line favorite in this race. However, the Mark Casse barn has stated that the more heralded of the two fillies, La Coronel (#1A), is likely to face the boys in Saturday s American Turf, so they will instead be represented

7 solely by Dream Dancing (#1) here. That s not necessarily bad news, because La Coronel would have been a very likely winner on Friday, and it makes the races on both days more interesting events. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which is likely to be set by the undefeated Stallion Heiress (#6). She has never been headed in her three starts to date, and her connections are unlikely to alter those tactics here. Runners like Sweeping Paddy (#9), Bernadiva (#2), and Storm the Hill (#8) should be pursuing her early, while late-runners Proctor s Ledge (#7) and Dream Dancing (#1) will benefit from a hot tempo up front. Let s go through the entire field: #1, DREAM DANCING (8-5): She s one of a number of fillies exiting the Appalachian at Keeneland, where she was no match for her stablemate. She made a strong late move through the stretch that day, but was just left with a bit too much ground to make up late. Without La Coronel in here, this is probably an easier spot, and Dream Dancing figures to improve upon her last result. She previously had gone undefeated in her two starts at Gulfstream, easily winning an allowance race before stepping up into graded stakes company in the Herecomesthebride. She was full of run coming to the top of the stretch that day, but had to briefly wait for room as Julien Leparoux sought out a clear path for her. She finally found a seam in the final eighth-mile and burst through with an impressive turn of foot. All she needs is some racing luck, since she s probably going to have to pass them all. A strong contender. #1A, LA CORONEL (8-5): Would be formidable if she were to run in this spot, but is likely to scratch in favor of Saturday s American Turf. #2, BERNADIVA (12-1): When she won her maiden at Gulfstream, she benefited from getting to set a slow pace (indicated by blue color-coding in the TimeformUS PPs) and was able to hold off the late-runners in the stretch. Conversely, when she followed that up with a win at Tampa next out, she rallied from off the pace into fast fractions (indicated by red color-coding). She really hasn t had to overcome much adversity in either of those efforts, and I m unconvinced she can handle this step up in class. Must improve. #3, YOUNGEST DAUGHTER (30-1): It s never easy to make the jump from a maiden special weight into a graded stakes race. It took this filly eight tries to graduate out of the maiden ranks, but she did it the right way at Keeneland last time, coming through along the inside under a great ride from Javier Castellano. However, even that effort isn t good enough to translate to success against this group. I ll pass. #4, INDIA MANTUANA (5-1): This filly had really turned a corner even before she was privately purchased and switched into trainer Chad Brown s barn. She had set a strong pace (color-coded in red) in January s Ginger Brew before just getting run down by the talented Bellavais in the last furlong. Then two back she led an allowance all the way while earning a strong 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure. One would have expected her to continue that forward progression in her first start for Brown in the Herecomesthebride and she very well might have if not for an extremely unlucky trip. Jockey Jose Ortiz eased her back off the leaders early, but he was then unable to get her into the clear as the pack bunched up approaching the stretch. She ended up getting stymied in behind the tiring leaders with nowhere to go, and only got clear once the race was

8 essentially over. She clearly possess more early speed than the Pace Projector is indicating, so she figures to be running somewhere in the second flight of runners behind Stallion Heiress early. She s never won at a distance beyond 7 1/2 furlongs, which is a concern, but she s too talented to leave out of the mix. Has a big chance. #5, JOURNEY HOME (20-1): This War Front filly got her career off to a great start, winning her debut before impressively taking a Grade 3 event at Del Mar, rallying from last place to get up for the victory. She was heavily favored to make it three in a row in her juvenile finale at Santa Anita, but she could only manage a fourth-place finish after encountering some minor traffic issues in the lane. She retuned from a layoff in that incredibly tough edition of the Appalachian. While she never really launched a move in finishing eighth, it s possible that she needed that race. Like Dream Dancing, a strong early pace would enhance her chances. Not the worst longshot idea. #6, STALLION HEIRESS (6-1): She s gone largely untested through three career starts, winning off by open lengths on each occasion while earning speed figures that suggest she s good enough to beat this field. While the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, she is the only true frontrunner in this race, and none can match her high cruising speed in the early going. She may be running fast, but she s likely to be running off in the clear, just as she apparently prefers. The major knock against her is that she s beaten absolutely nothing of any quality in her races, so this is a major step up in class. I m typically wary of horses like this because they usually take more money than is warranted, but this filly clearly has some talent. May not offer much value, but cannot totally throw her out. #7, PROCTOR S LEDGE (5-1): Of those exiting the Appalachian, she is the one that was able to get closest to La Coronel in the late stages. Corey Lanerie saved ground at the back of the pack for as long as he possibly could, and this filly was ready to roll approaching the top of the stretch. He briefly had to hold her up in traffic as she crossed over runners heels at the back of the pack, but she accelerated instantly once in the clear. Dream Dancing, who was rallying outside of her, already had picked up momentum, but Proctor s Ledge quickly matched strides with that one and held her off while rallying into third. This imposing daughter of Ghostzapper has come to hand quickly for her connections after an uninspiring debut over this course last fall. She looked like an absolute monster crushing inferior foes at Gulfstream two back, and I believe she s coming into this as the most naturally talented horse in the race (not counting La Coronel). As long as she works out a trip, I think she s likely to win. #8, STORM THE HILL (12-1): She clearly appreciated the change in scenery once switched into Peter Miller s barn in Southern California. She was a dominant maiden winner two back albeit over a very weak group and then she followed that up with a hard-fought win sprinting down the hill. Now she s back to Churchill Downs, where she just barely missed against maiden company last November. She s obviously improved in recent months, but I still don t think she s on par with the top contenders here. One to consider underneath in exotics. #9, SWEEPING PADDY (12-1): She actually put in a deceptively strong effort in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf last year, contesting a strong pace before getting passed by the closers late in a race that was falling apart at the end. However, it doesn t seem as if she s stepped forward as a 3-year-old. She was soundly beaten by Dream Dancing on two occasions, and she again

9 failed in an easier allowance spot at Keeneland last time. An outside chance to complete the trifecta, but anything more seems like a stretch. #10, PURELY A DREAM (20-1): Her big win came over Turfway s synthetic surface in the Bourbonette Oaks. While she s won on turf, she just hasn t shown the same spark over that surface that she displayed at Turfway two back. Hard to endorse. #11, EMPHATICALLY (15-1): She s clearly improving, but she s going to have to do better still to be a major factor in this race. She picked up a Grade 3 placing in Santa Anita s Providencia last time, but the winner of that race, Sircat Sally, was far more dominant than the final margin of victory would suggest. A minor award may be her ceiling. #12, YOU MISSED IT (12-1): Still a maiden after six starts, she s picked up checks on every occasion. While she just edged out Emphatically for second in the Providencia last time, this filly saved every bit of ground as she rallied up the rail. It figures to be a different story Friday as she breaks from the outside post position in this field. Others appeal more. THE PLAY The three major players in this race are Dream Dancing (#1), India Mantuana (#4), and Proctor s Ledge (#7). They should all be around the same price, but I give the edge to Proctor s Ledge, who just appears to be heading in the right direction and should get some pace to close into. I ll use these runners with Journey Home (#5), who is mildly interesting at a price, and the undefeated speedball Stallion Heiress (#6). Win: 7 Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,4,5,6 Trifecta: 7 with 1,4 with 1,4,5,6,8,9,11 Trifecta: 1,4 with 7 with 1,4,5,6,8,9,11 The Kentucky Oaks Race 11 Friday 6:12 EDT By TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks 1 1/8 miles, dirt, 3-year-old fillies Churchill Downs, race 11, 6:12 p.m. Eastern Most likely winner: Paradise Woods (#4) For the second year in a row, the early favorite for the Kentucky Oaks fell by the wayside during the spring prep season. Just like Songbird a year ago, Unique Bella appeared to be set to follow in the footsteps of dominant Oaks winners like Rachel Alexandra and Untapable before a minor injury sent her to the sidelines. However, quite remarkably, less than two weeks after the announcement of Unique Bella s setback, a worthy understudy stepped into the spotlight.

10 Emerging out of near anonymity, Paradise Woods managed to position herself as the clear and undisputed favorite for the Oaks and perhaps the top 3-year-old of either sex. So, now the question becomes: Has this Kentucky Oaks once again turned into a one-horse race? Perhaps. If Paradise Woods repeats her Santa Anita Oaks performance here, she will absolutely crush this field. Yet she hardly needs to run quite that fast to merely win this race. According to both the Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figures, she could regress 10 points or more and still come away with a victory. For those looking for reasons to take a shot against the favorite, the TimeformUS Pace Projector offers a glimmer of hope. The early tempo in the Oaks is predicted to be fast, with Paradise Woods (#4) on the lead. However, despite this characterization, this Oaks field is not exactly loaded with front-runners. Rather, Paradise Woods s trip may be influenced by a few key pace players. Paco Lopez on Miss Sky Warrior (#10) may choose to ride this like a match race and go after the favorite early, as could Channing Hill on Farrell (#7). A closer like Abel Tasman (#13) is most likely to benefit from one of those scenarios, but is she or any other closer fast enough to fully capitalize on the situation? Let s try to find those answers as we make our way through the entire field: #1, EVER SO CLEVER (20-1): The Fantasy winner is one of a few fillies in this race to own a win over the track and has even shown herself to be capable of handling a muddy Churchill surface, which she may encounter Friday. Her late-running style fits the projected race flow, but she appears to be too slow to surpass the best fillies in here. A superfecta candidate at best. #2, LOCKDOWN (20-1): Despite the size of this field, there are not very many truly interesting longshots. Yet this Bill Mott trainee may be one you want to consider at a price. It s true that she s never run a particularly fast race, but there are some reasons to believe that we may not have seen the best of her yet. Making just her third start, this full sister to Close Hatches was a visually impressive winner of the Busanda Stakes in January before getting some time off. When she returned in the Gazelle, she may have needed a race, and Kendrick Carmouche certainly made sure that she got something out of that effort. He aggressively sent this filly after Miss Sky Warrior, and they hooked up for much of the race before the eventual winner asserted her dominance. Lockdown basically stopped in the stretch, but a speed-favoring surface carried her home as she held onto second. With that race under her belt, it s doubtful that they employ the same tactics here as they seek to work out a less stressful trip. She could surprise with a topthree finish. #3, MOPOTISM (20-1): In her two Grade 1 attempts, she was trounced by today s rivals Paradise Woods and Abel Tasman. Those results are not exactly encouraging, but the California 3-yearold fillies were significantly faster than their East Coast and Midwest counterparts this prep season. For instance, how might this filly have fared against Farrell at Fair Grounds this winter? Her Beyers and TimeformUS Speed Figures say she would have been quite competitive, but her odds likely will not reflect that. One to consider when adding longshots to your superfectas. #4, PARADISE WOODS (5-2): She is not only the fastest 3-year-old in this particular race. Her 107 Beyer and 124 TimeformUS Speed Figures indicate that she may be faster than any of the colts running in Saturday s Kentucky Derby. That Santa Anita Oaks romp was a sight to behold, and

11 she certainly deserves to be a strong favorite in this race. The question is: How comfortable are you supporting a filly whose reputation is built entirely on a single race? She wouldn t be the first superior Thoroughbred who took a few races to realize her full potential. Handicappers had to make a similar decision about Arrogate in last fall s Breeders Cup Classic following his unexpected Travers tour de force. Considering that Paradise Woods is a daughter of Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags, I think it is plausible that she improved so significantly with the stretch-out in distance. I also believe she has the right trainer in her corner. Richard Mandella does not make the decision to ship his best horses across the country lightly, and he nearly pulled off a win in this race with Beholder a few years ago. Paradise Woods has a long way to go to match that mare s accomplishments, but she s certainly on her way. Unless she absolutely despises a wet track, she should be able to handle this field. #5, JORDAN S HENNY (30-1): She put in a game effort behind Miss Sky Warrior in the Davona Dale, but I think there are some distance limitations here, and she s likely to get caught up in a fast pace. I ll pass. #6, VEXATIOUS (20-1): She lost momentum at a few key points in the Fantasy as she was bumped around at the top of the stretch and then had to alter course in the final sixteenth of a mile. I don t think she would have beaten Ever So Clever that day, but she may have more upside than that rival, and she looks like a filly who should love the added ground. Another superfecta option. #7, FARRELL (5-1): She s won five of her last six starts and is a three-time Grade 2 winner. But the complimentary observations end there. She s never run an especially fast race, and she s been beating up on vastly inferior competition at Fair Grounds. She s going to take money based on a few lopsided victories, and I think she s going to be a massive underlay. It s hard for me to envision her dealing with the speed of Paradise Woods and Miss Sky Warrior and putting those fillies away. I m leaving her out of my exactas. #8, SAILOR S VALENTINE (30-1): While it was wrapped in its traditional Grade 1 packaging, the 2017 Ashland was hardly a Grade 1 product. The race was completely devoid of top fillies, and the painfully slow speed figures assigned to the race reflect that lack of quality. A moderate pace helped propel this longshot to victory, but she s unlikely to repeat that feat against a true Grade 1 field. I ll pass. #9, WICKED LICK (30-1): Farrell s bridesmaid has never won on dirt and had been soundly beaten in two N1X optional-claiming races prior to her three straight losses in stakes company. Serves as an indictment of Farrell s form. #10, MISS SKY WARRIOR (9-2): She is the only horse in this race to have won going this distance, and she s done it twice. Her 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the Gazelle is the highest number earned outside of California by a 3-year-old filly, and she conceivably could have run faster as Paco Lopez eased her up through the final furlong of that race. So, where did that effort come from? She s won five races in a row, but she had never run nearly that fast before. Did she just need her first race back off the bench in the Davona Dale, or did a speed bias at Aqueduct account for her massive improvement in the Gazelle? I think it s more likely that the latter is true, but I wouldn t necessarily discount her because of that. Lopez rides this filly very well and

12 should have her perfectly positioned just off Paradise Woods early. Don t be surprised if she s still there in deep stretch. #11, TEQUILITA (20-1): Despite her being bred to run all day, she s been given very few chances to stretch out in distance. She s by Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags and is out of a half-sister to the graded-stakes-winning router Offlee Wild. She s run well sprinting, even winning the Grade 2 Forward Gal at Gulfstream, but I think there s a strong chance we haven t yet seen her best. She s a grinding type, so it s no surprise that she couldn t follow Salty s assertive early move in the Gulfstream Park Oaks last time. However, she never gave up and was finishing well for second in the lane. Only needs to take a minor step forward to vault herself into the trifecta at a massive price. #12, DADDYS LIL DARLING (20-1): Like Ever So Clever, she ll be running late, but she would need a total pace meltdown to garner more than a very minor award. That win over a muddy Churchill Downs surface in the Pocahontas bodes well for her chances with rain forecast on Friday. Yet another superfecta possibility. #13, ABEL TASMAN (5-1): Following the derailment of Unique Bella, she appeared to be one of a handful of fillies poised to assume the role of Kentucky Oaks favorite. However, a subpar effort in the Santa Anita Oaks left her as the forgotten horse while Paradise Woods became the talk of the town. Yet this Grade 1 winner is no slouch and may be the most serious threat to the favorite. She was the only horse able to put a scare into Unique Bella this year, and you can make some excuses for her disappointing final prep. She was away slowly and had to briefly steady leaving the backstretch before getting spun out wide on the turn for home. Perhaps she won t beat Paradise Woods, but I d be surprised if she doesn t significantly cut into the gap. #14, SALTY (6-1): She has a similar profile to Paradise Woods, as they both stepped up from maiden wins sprinting to register impressive graded-stakes victories in their third starts. She won the Gulfstream Park Oaks by more than four lengths, but her win may have been even more dominant than that margin suggests. She was off slowly and taken to the back of the pack early. However, Joel Rosario apparently misjudged the pace and sent her forward to make an aggressive early move into some solid fractions. Despite making the lead very early, she didn t stop running and maintained her momentum through the wire. Her speed figures indicate that she fits with the top four or five best fillies in the field, and she may have more upside than most of them. The outside post is not ideal, but she seems talented enough to overcome some adversity. Has an outside chance to win if the favorite falters. #15-AE, SUMMER LUCK (30-1): She s been beaten by five of her rivals here in her last three races. Would be in over her head if she gets in. THE PLAY: Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,10,11,13,14 Trifecta: 4 with 2,10,11,13,14 with 2,10,11,13,14 Trifecta: 4 with 13,14 with 1,3,6,7,12 Trifecta: 13,14 with 4 with 2,10,11,13,14 Superfecta: 4 with 13,14 with 2,10,11,13,14 with 1,2,3,6,7,10,11,12

13 Kentucky Oaks Pace Projector Preview By Craig Milkowski How does the Projector work? The TimeformUS Pace Projector attempts to predict how a race will unfold early. It displays the horses ranked by the TimeformUS Early Speed Rating -- fastest in the front, slowest in the rear. The image shows where the horses are projected to be after the first half-mile of a route race. The front is displayed to the right. It also attempts to determine if the pace of the race is likely to be fast, average, or slow for the field. What is the Pace Projector saying about this particular race? This race is likely to have a fast pace according to the Pace Projector. This is based on the number of horses with a preference for racing on or near the lead and how closely those horses are rated on the aforementioned early speed rating. Of the 14 horses drawn into the main field, nine have been designated with TimeformUS Running Styles of Leader, Speed, or Tracker. Paradise Woods (#4) is the 5-2 morning line favorite and also expected to lead the field early. She won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks in wire-to-wire fashion last out in her first try around two turns. Her closest challenger should be Miss Sky Warrior (#10). She has won five races in a row, including four grades stakes races, and has won both of her two-turn races in wire-to-wire fashion. Are there any quirks to this particular distance or surface or field size that the algorithm adjusts for? The large field size is taken into account by the Pace Projector when assessing if the pace is likely to be fast, average, or slow. It is definitely part of the reason the Fast Pace designation is displayed. Abel Tasman (#13) is adding blinkers and though she still isn t predicted to be part of the early pace, she is shown closer to the leader than she otherwise would be if not adding blinkers. All of the horses have been running primarily on dirt so surface isn t much of a factor. Based on a more nuanced, granular look at the PPs from watching the races, knowing the jockeys and trainers tendencies, etc., which horses do you think are likely to show more or less early speed than in this Projector? Lockdown (#2) could be closer than predicted. She drew inside, has shown good tactical speed in all her starts, and the rider probably won t want to get shuffled back too far. The rest look solid with the given data.

14 Does any horse stand out as exceptional on TimeformUS Late Pace Figures, if the pace turns out to be hot? Abel Tasman is the top-rated late pace horse with a 106. Ever So Clever (#1) and Daddys Lil Darling (#12) are next with 103 and 101, respectively. Neither of those horses is actually displayed on the Pace Projector. They are predicted to be too far behind early and are noted as Deep Closers. Abel Tasman not only has the best late pace rating, she is faster than the other later runners early and has better TimeformUS Speed Figures, too. She would be the one most likely to capitalize on a fast pace. How have recent Kentucky Oaks developed from a pace standpoint? TimeformUS has designated four of the last eight Oaks as having been run at a fast clip early. None have been flagged as slow early. The race is not going to be stolen by a filly going slow or even moderate fractions early. In those last eight editions, three winners were second after the opening quarter-mile and three more sat within striking position in fourth. The two winners from well off the pace both benefited from good setups in races that featured a fast pace. These are designated in the TimeformUS Past Performances by coding the pace figures and fractions in red. Kentucky Derby Preview Grade 1 Kentucky Derby Race 12 Saturday 6:34 p.m. (EDT) By TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona Most Likely Winner: Classic Empire (#14) One of the dilemmas handicappers encounter when analyzing the field for the 143rd Kentucky Derby is determining where to look for value. This is as wide-open a Run for the Roses as we have seen in years, with the favorite likely to go off in the 4-1 to 5-1 range if not a higher price than that. Throw in the possibility of a wet track with variable amounts of rain in the forecast for Thursday through Saturday, and you re looking at a pretty chaotic picture. Given the evenly-matched nature of this field, the difference between success and failure will likely come down to trips. Which horse will see everything go his way and get that perfect setup on Derby Day? Much of what goes into those determinations comes down to pace and race flow, and this Kentucky Derby is forecasted to feature a fast early clip. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that State of Honor (#6) and Irish War Cry (#17) are the two fastest horses in the early going, and they are predicted to be out in front by the half-mile pole, with Battle of Midway (#11) in close pursuit. All three have used aggressive early tactics successfully in their prep races but also are capable of stalking the pace if necessary. One runner that is almost certain to be more forwardly placed than the Pace Projector indicates is Always Dreaming (#5). Our algorithm has him placed somewhere in midpack due to the fact that he s been involved in relatively slow paces in his prep races. However, he has been

15 extremely headstrong in his training and showed in his sprints as a 2-year-old that possesses the speed to be forcing the pace early. His inside draw down in post 5 may force John Velazquez to be aggressive out of the gate. The connections of Fast and Accurate (#3) also have indicated that they plan to use their horse out of the gate in an attempt to secure the lead, though he has not yet shown that he s quite fast enough to outrun the aforementioned colts. Midpack runners like Hence (#8) and McCraken (#15) would stand to benefit from a quick tempo up front, as would closers and plodders like Gunnevera (#10) and Lookin At Lee (#1), who tie for the highest Late Pace Rating in the field at 117. Let s make our way through the entire field: #1, LOOKIN AT LEE (20-1): This plodder was steered all over the track in an eventful run through the stretch in the Arkansas Derby and might have won had his rider been able to keep a straight path. He has been steadily improving while keeping company with the best in his division. Distance should not be an issue, but he absolutely needs a fast and contested pace to have a chance. Hard to envision him winning, but definitely one to use in superfectas. #2, THUNDER SNOW (20-1): An Irish-bred by an Australian sire out of a English-bred dam, now headed for a start in Kentucky by way of Dubai this colt certainly adds some international flavor to the race. He is an extremely talented turf horse, having won a Group 1 in France last fall by five lengths. The switch to dirt at Meydan did not seem to faze him as he wore down the highly regarded Epicharis to take the UAE Derby, despite drifting from the whip in the stretch. By virtue of winning that race, he is the only horse in this year s Derby to have raced and won beyond nine furlongs. We ve seen Meydan dirt form translate to American dirt success in recent years, but the Derby is a very tricky race to win, and his rider is inexperienced with American racing. Think twice before falling for this new face. #3, FAST AND ACCURATE (50-1): His lone dirt race was awful, and he beat a fairly weak field in the Spiral. He could potentially influence the early pace if they ride him aggressively, but he may not even be fast enough to accomplish that. The favorite to finish last. #4, UNTRAPPED (30-1): His Arkansas Derby effort was better than it seems given his wide trip and premature move up to challenge for the lead on the far turn. Yet, as has been the case in all of his two-turn races, he flattened out in the stretch after reaching contention. The Pat Day Mile would have been a more realistic target for this distance-challenged runner, but his connections had Derby dreams. I ll pass. #5, ALWAYS DREAMING (5-1): He s been visually impressive in all of his races since switching Todd Pletcher s barn, especially so in the Florida Derby. He looked to be in command throughout that race and drew off with authority in the stretch. The 97 Beyer Speed Figure and 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned for that win represent two of the highest numbers in the field. Off such an effort, he figures to be among the shortest prices on the board if not the outright favorite but has he done enough to warrant such support? Pletcher is always more dangerous at Gulfstream than he is just about anywhere else in the country, so it s fair to wonder if Always Dreaming will transfer his form to Churchill. He has been incredibly headstrong

16 in his local training, which is a concern as he stretches out to 1 1/4 miles. The Pace Projector indicates that he has not had to run particularly fast in the early stages of his recent wins, and he may have to exert more energy to attain his customary forward position in the Derby. Unless they choose to change his preferred running style, his inside post position basically forces John Velazquez to be aggressive. That s somewhat of a concern, especially considering that he s worked out perfect trips in all three of his wins this year. Undoubtedly gifted, but the risk does not outweigh the likely reward. #6, STATE OF HONOR (30-1): He was no match for McCraken, Tapwrit, or Always Dreaming in his three preps leading up to the Derby. It s hard to envision him turning the tables on the top contenders. Will be a pace factor, but unlikely to be around late. #7, GIRVIN (15-1): It s well documented that Girvin s preparations have been interrupted by foot issues. However, a strong five-furlong workout last week appears to have lifted the cloud of concern that was hanging over this colt s connections and backers. Though, frankly, if I was thinking about supporting him, I d be more worried about the fact that he s simply not fast enough to win this year s Derby. Both the Beyers and TimeformUS Speed Figures that he earned for his wins in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby are significantly slower than the numbers being recorded by most of the top contenders this field. Furthermore, he got perfect trips in those wins and is almost certain to face more adversity in this 20-horse stampede. Others will offer better value. #8, HENCE (15-1): Here s your wise-guy horse. He s an enigma for speed figure-makers. A onehit wonder. What do you do with a horse like Hence? When comparing the raw times on Sunland Derby Day, his win comes up unreasonably fast. Both the Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figure were adjusted down to a seemingly realistic level to align with the participants prior form. However, both Conquest Mo Money and Irap have come out of that race to significantly improve in their subsequent starts, so perhaps it was indeed a stronger race than initially thought. It s a feather in his cap that he handled a wet track so well in his maiden win, where he bolted to the rail at the eighth pole, almost costing himself the race. There are certainly things to like, but I still wish he had one more performance to back up that huge Sunland effort. He does sport the pedigree to get this distance, since he gets a ton of stamina from his dam s family. He s been pegged at 15-1 on the morning line, but he feels like one of these horses that could go off at anywhere from 10-1 to 25-1 on race day. You d have to toss him at the lower price and throw him in at the higher price. A tough call, but some reasons to be optimistic. #9, IRAP (20-1): Great trip or not, his Blue Grass effort was strong. His TimeformUS Speed Figure of 121 is tied with Always Dreaming s Florida Derby for the highest number earned in the final round of prep races. As a half-brother to sprint champion Speightstown, one would assume he has speed, but he gets plenty of stamina from his sire, Tiznow. This colt has been knocking on the door against top 3-year-olds and may have finally turned a corner. I don t believe he s as hopeless as some might discern. Still, hard to envision a trip that lands him in the winner s circle. #10, GUNNEVERA (15-1): Was his Florida Derby a sign that he s heading in the wrong direction, or a well-executed prep along the lines of Monarchos s Wood Memorial or Thunder Gulch s Blue Grass? I m leaning toward the latter outlook. I have the utmost respect for Javier Castellano, but he did not give Gunnevera the savviest ride in the Florida Derby. He had the right idea about

17 saving ground early, but he gave up so much early position in an attempt to get over to the rail and ended up 15 lengths off of what turned out to be a very moderate pace up front. Gunnevera had previously shown what he was capable of accomplishing in both the Holy Bull, where he was hindered by trouble on the far turn, and the Fountain of Youth, where he drew off by nearly six lengths. He has the ability to make the kind of long, sustained run that closers like Street Sense and Orb employed successfully in their Derby scores. He s a small colt, but don t let that fool you. He has a classic-distance pedigree, being out of an Unbridled dam who is the daughter of a Graustark mare. He s flying under the radar coming into this race and would offer fantastic value at anything close to his morning-line price. A strong contender and a must-use in every exotics slot. #11, BATTLE OF MIDWAY (30-1): You can make the case that he ran a stronger race than Gormley in the Santa Anita Derby considering the fast pace (indicated by red color-coding in TimeformUS PPs). Yet, do you really want anyone out of that ugly prep? He s lightly raced, but he has never attained a 90 Beyer, and any horse lacking those credentials would be considered a significant upset.looks to be a cut below the top contenders. #12, SONNETEER (50-1): This late-runner would be first maiden to win the Derby since Brokers Tip in We ve seen some longstanding Derby records fall in recent years (like Funny Cide ending the gelding drought), but this particular streak looks likely to continue. An outsider. #13, J BOYS ECHO (20-1): This is the trip handicapper s horse. He was hindered by a host of issues in three of his last four races a wide trip in the Delta Downs Jackpot, an inside speed bias in the Withers, and a poor break in the Blue Grass. After getting bumped at the start last time out at Keeneland, he was never able to get solid early position, forced to rate at the back of the pace in a race dominated toward the front end. The only race where everything worked out the Gotham resulted in him earning the co-highest Beyer Speed Figure in the field (102). Some may dismiss that Gotham effort by pointing out that the runner-up in that race, Cloud Computing, came back to disappoint in the Wood. However, he was hindered by an against-thebias trip that day and actually ran better than it seems. There are admittedly some distance concerns on the dam s side of J Boys Echo s pedigree, but Mineshaft should provide enough stamina to put those apprehensions to rest. While it s unfortunate that Robby Albarado got hurt, jockey Luis Saez should be good a fit for this notoriously lazy horse. A longshot that I will definitely be using. #14, CLASSIC EMPIRE (4-1): There are relatively few convictions that you can hang your hat on in this year s race. Yet one belief that is shared by almost every sane handicapper out there is this: If the now 3-year-old Classic Empire improves on his Breeders Cup Juvenile triumph, he will be the Kentucky Derby winner. In a year where so few have delivered standout performances, that is exactly what this colt did at Santa Anita last November. Neither the 102 Beyer nor the 123 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he recorded in that win have been surpassed by any of his competitors. (Only J Boys Echo matched his Beyer in the Gotham.) The problem is that Classic Empire has not come close to replicating that performance in two starts as a sophomore. Yet the good news is that he was able to get his campaign back on track after some winter setbacks with a workmanlike win in the Arkansas Derby. At first glance, one might observe that he had to work harder than you d like to see while running down inferior rivals that day. However, a closer inspection of his trip reveals that he was never in a comfortable position, especially for a horse that has done his best running when he s allowed to stride freely without strong restraint. Given

18 those circumstances, as well as the layoff, he had every right to flatten out in the lane but instead gamely found another gear in the last furlong. Perhaps it was the perfect prep. Not as dominant as past Derby favorites, but is nevertheless the horse to beat. #15, McCRAKEN (5-1): Like Classic Empire, McCraken endured a setback in his training this winter. Yet, unlike that foe, he was unable to return to his winning ways in his final prep for this race. He was more forwardly placed than usual in Blue Grass, which was probably a sign that he was too keen off the layoff rather than a planned tactic on jockey Brian Hernandez s part. He didn t finish with his usual gusto that day, but he has closed so strongly through the stretch of his prior races that you d expect he just needed the race. Trainer Ian Wilkes is a protégé of Carl Nafzger, and this colt is somewhat reminiscent of Street Sense in his ability to neatly slice through a pack and build momentum while racing through traffic. His dam s speediness may lead some to be concerned about him getting 1 1/4 miles, but his push-button running style allays some of those concerns. The only problem with McCraken is his price. He has trained better than anyone this week, and that often translates to greatly reduced odds on Derby Day. Must be included in exotics, despite a likely lack of value. #16, TAPWRIT (20-1): What happened in the Blue Grass? He did have to overcome a very wide trip, but ground loss alone does not fully account for such a dull effort. He was visually impressive in winning the Tampa Bay Derby, but he did so over some suspect competition in retrospect. He has the appearance of a horse that should get 1 1/4 miles and has trained well this week, but it s hard to take a runner coming off such a poor performance. Another difficult one to judge. #17, IRISH WAR CRY (6-1): Which version of Irish War Cry will we get? When this colt shows up, he s as a talented a horse as you ll find in this year s Derby. Yet it s hard to completely trust a colt that ran as poorly as he did in the Fountain of Youth. He remains the only horse in this race to have surpassed the triple-digit Beyer threshold on two separate occasions, but it must be pointed out that he got fantastic trips in those two major wins. He was allowed to set a measured pace in the Holy Bull before pulling away from a troubled Gunnevera. Then last time in the Wood Memorial, he was able to take advantage of a track bias that was favoring horses with speed. His sire, Curlin, is an excellent source of stamina, and this trainer, Graham Motion, conditioned Animal Kingdom to win the Derby just six years ago. The post position draw may not have mattered for many of the runners in this race, but him drawing outside in stall 17 may be critical to his success. After all, he doesn t seem like the kind of runner that appreciates early restraint, and he should be able to chase freely outside of the main speeds. The stars could be aligning for this top contender. #18, GORMLEY (15-1): If you want anyone out of the Santa Anita Derby, I suppose this is the right horse. However, I m not sure I can take the horses exiting that race. The field was so bunched through the lane and they came home very slowly. Gormley did show a new dimension as he rallied from off the pace under Triple Crown winner Victor Espinoza, but he still got a great trip. One positive thing I can say is that he has run faster races in the past, and we may not have seen his very best effort last time. Would move up on a wet track. #19, PRACTICAL JOKE (20-1): He is one of three multiple Grade 1 winners in the field, along with Classic Empire and Gormley. However, all of his wins at that level came as a 2-year-old. While he s been winless at 3, he has nevertheless run well in both of his starts. Joel Rosario gave him a

19 clever ride in the Blue Grass, where he stayed closer to the pace than usual, but some may criticize him for failing to run down Irap. Questions about his distance limitations have plagued him since last year, and he s yet to prove that he really wants to go this far. Chad Brown had toyed with the idea of changing his equipment and adding blinkers for this race, but ultimately decided against it. Getting mixed signals from this one. #20, PATCH (30-1): The one-eyed colt has garnered more attention for his physical appearance than his résumé. He won a fast maiden race at Gulfstream and stepped right up to hold his own against Girvin at Fair Grounds. Yet, like Battle of Midway, he has failed to surpass that 90 Beyer threshold, which is a concern heading into the toughest test of his short career. On the other hand, few runners in this race sport a better pedigree for the distance. He is by a Belmont Stakes winner out of heralded stamina influence A.P. Indy, and his female family traces back to champion mare Banshee Breeze. Intriguing for the second half of the year, but this may be too much too soon. #21 ROYAL MO (AE): He may have run the best race of all in the Santa Anita Derby, considering the pace and his wide trip, but we ve already discussed the problems with that prep. His lone trip out of California was a total disaster. It s tough to show speed from this post position and still be around late, and he needs to be forwardly placed. An outsider, in every respect. #22, MASTER PLAN (AE): He closed steadily through the lane in the UAE Derby, getting within 1 1/4 lengths of winner Thunder Snow at the wire. However, that s been his only start since January as his preparation for this race has been extremely unconventional.unlikely to be a factor if he gets in. THE PLAY (Betting Strategies will be added to this document Friday by noon EDT) Kentucky Derby Pace Projector Preview By Craig Milkowski How does the Projector work? The TimeformUS Pace Projector attempts to predict how a race will unfold early. It displays the horses ranked by the TimeformUS Early Speed Rating fastest in the front, slowest in the rear. The image shows where the horses are projected to be after the first half-mile of a route race. The front is displayed to the right. It also attempts to determine if the pace of the race is likely to be fast, average, or slow.

20 What is the Pace Projector saying about the Kentucky Derby? This race is likely to have a fast pace, according to the Pace Projector. This fast pace designation is based on the number of horses with a preference for racing on or near the lead and how closely those horses are rated on the aforementioned Early Speed Rating. Of the 20 horses drawn into the main field, 10 have been designated with TimeformUS running styles of Leader, Speed, or Tracker. Three of these 10 are shown grouped together near the front State of Honor (#6), Battle of Midway (#11), and Irish War Cry (#17). Are there any quirks to this particular distance, surface, or field size that the algorithm adjusts for? The large field size is taken into account by the Pace Projector when assessing if the pace is likely to be fast, average, or slow. It is definitely part of the reason the Fast Pace designation is displayed. At this distance and longer, the Favors Horses On/Near Early Lead is not an available option, though it obviously wouldn t be shown for this particular race in any case. It does take more speed horses to display the Fast Pace label on dirt than it does on turf or synthetic surfaces since the pace for dirt races is generally faster than those on other surfaces. Based on a more nuanced, granular look at the past performances, from watching the races, knowing the jockeys and trainers tendencies, etc., which horses do you think are likely to show more or less early speed than in this Projector? Always Dreaming (#5), the co-second choice on the morning line at 5-1, is an interesting case. He is shown well back in 11th position early, despite having the TimeformUS running style of Leader. A look at his past performances helps explain this:

21 In his maiden try in August, he had some trouble at the start and got caught behind a slow pace. The pace figures shown above are for the leader of the race at that point. In the next two races, Always Dreaming was completely dominant and didn t have to run much at all early to beat those fields. Once again, the pace figures are in blue. Last out when winning the Florida Derby, he was able to step up his level to beat much better competition and ran much faster early. He is clearly capable of laying closer than he is shown in the Pace Projector. The Early Pace Rating that is a key piece of the Pace Projector looks at multiple races and is cumulative, but in this case the last race probably should be given more weight. Handicappers are encouraged to add their own inputs to this tool. This is a case where that is probably a very good idea. Does any horse stand out as exceptional on TimeformUS Late Pace Figures, if the pace turns out to be hot? Two horses are tied for the best Late Pace Rating with 117 Lookin At Lee (#1) and Gunnevera (#10). Of these two, Gunnevera has run the best overall races. He has better TimeformUS Speed Figures and also has been able to getting into races sooner. It is best to be wary of horses like Lookin At Lee that are assigned a running style of Plodder by TimeformUS. How have recent editions of the Kentucky Derby developed from a pace standpoint? This will be the fifth Kentucky Derby since the points system was implemented to determine the field. The race has featured a fast pace in two of the previous four, and none have been designated as slow. There is virtually no chance for a slow pace in a race with a field this big. The last three winners sat second or third after the opening half-mile, but Orb did manage to win from well back in 2013 when the pace was very fast, a 165 TimeformUS Pace Figure for the opening halfmile. The betting favorite has won every Derby since the points system was implemented.