Impact of VLTs on Lottery Ticket Sales in New York

Transcription

1 Impact of VLTs on Lottery Ticket Sales in New York Charles Vickery Presented to National Council of Legislators from Gaming States Hawk s s Cay, Florida Copyright 2007 Charles Vickery

2 Summary New New York s s VLTs have contributed $500 million to education since Jan The The relationship between VLTs and lottery ticket sales in New York is not proven. Preliminary numbers, discussed here, indicate that VLTs may negatively impact lottery ticket sales. Relationships similar to those discussed here have been reported in other states.

3 Summary New York Lottery ticket sales rose 56% between 2000 and 2005, from $4.07 billion in 2000 to $6.36 billion in New York VLT net revenue was $424 million, or 6.7% of 2005 New York Lottery ticket sales. New York introduced its first racetrack casino during January, 2004 (Saratoga). Growth in lottery ticket sales within casino market areas once mirrored statewide growth now well below growth outside of casino market areas. Negative impact on lottery ticket sales could be 15% of VLT net revenue.

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9 New York Racetrack Casinos VLT Net Machine Revenues Since Inception Week Ending 01/31/04 thru Week Ending 01/06/07 Racetrack Casino Opened Week Ending Net Machine Revenue Aid to Education Percent to Education Saratoga 01/31/04 $302,181,106 $165,616, % Finger Lakes 02/21/04 $214,458,916 $116,565, % Fair Grounds 03/20/04 $107,835,820 $58,083, % Mighty M 07/03/04 $177,918,746 $95,119, % Batavia 05/21/05 $39,121,041 $19,560, % Tioga Downs 07/08/06 $21,521,246 $10,760, % Yonkers 10/14/06 $55,082,289 $29,896, % Vernon Downs 10/28/06 $7,722,775 $3,861, % All Locations 01/31/04 $925,841,939 $499,464, %

10 New York Casinos That Opened in 2004 Annual NY Lottery Ticket Sales within 50 Miles ($US Millions) Finger Lakes Buffalo Raceway Seneca Allegheny Saratoga Gaming Monticello Combined Total 1,588 1,562 1,550 1,493 1,290 1, lottery ticket sales within 50 miles of these locations were 25% of statewide sales, down from 28.2% in 2000.

11 New York Lottery Ticket Sales Relative to Distance from NY Casinos That Opened During 2004 ($US Billions) NY Total % Change 5.65% 4.91% 7.07% 16.77% 12.83% Less than 50 Miles % Change 1.67% 0.80% 3.85% 15.75% 12.25% At least 50 Miles % Change 7.04% 6.43% 8.32% 17.17% 13.06%

12 Thank You Charles Vickery 273 E. Mt. Vernon St. Oxford, PA (610) Copyright 2007 Charles Vickery

13 Impact of VLTs on Lottery Ticket Sales in New York Impact of VLTs on Lottery Ticket Sales in New York Charles Vickery Presented to National Council of Legislators from Gaming States Hawk s s Cay, Florida Copyright 2007 Charles Vickery Charles Vickery 1

14 Impact of VLTs on Lottery Ticket Sales in New York Summary New New York s s VLTs have contributed $500 million to education since Jan The The relationship between VLTs and lottery ticket sales in New York is not proven. Preliminary numbers, discussed here, indicate that VLTs may negatively impact lottery ticket sales. Relationships similar to those discussed here have been reported in other states. Charles Vickery 2

15 Impact of VLTs on Lottery Ticket Sales in New York Summary New York Lottery ticket sales rose 56% between 2000 and 2005, from $4.07 billion in 2000 to $6.36 billion in New York VLT net revenue was $424 million, or 6.7% of 2005 New York Lottery ticket sales. New York introduced its first racetrack casino during January, 2004 (Saratoga). Growth in lottery ticket sales within casino market areas once mirrored statewide growth now well below growth outside of casino market areas. Negative impact on lottery ticket sales could be 15% of VLT net revenue. Notice that 2006 New York VLT net revenue of $424 million was just 6.7% of lottery ticket sales. When nearly a half-billion dollars is just 6.7% of something, that puts lottery ticket sales into perspective it s a huge number. The New York racetrack casinos discussed here are relatively small compared to those coming online around New York City. New York Metropolitan Area casinos will generate far higher revenues than New York s other racetrack casinos and could have a larger financial impact on lottery ticket sales. So, the financial impact to-date of VLTs on lottery ticket sales merits attention. In New York State, lottery ticket sales and racetrack casino revenues benefit education NY Lottery ticket sales, just in, were $6,665,936,158. Charles Vickery 3

16 Impact of VLTs on Lottery Ticket Sales in New York This map shows gaming locations in New York and surrounding states. Red dots show gaming locations. The larger the red dot, the more machines that exist or have been proposed. New York has about 250 off-track betting locations (OTBs), separated into six OTB regions, which are color-coded on the map. Charles Vickery 4

17 Impact of VLTs on Lottery Ticket Sales in New York This map of New York shows the percent change in lottery ticket sales by zip code relative to average during 2003 compared to During this period, average lottery ticket sales in New York increased by 41%. Red areas on the map show zip codes with at least $5,000 in annual lottery ticket sales and where lottery ticket sales grew by at least 41%. Blue areas show zip codes with at least $5,000 in annual ticket sales and where ticket sales grew by less than average. The dark blue markers show existing and proposed casino locations (as of 2005), identified by name on the previous map. Notice that the blue and red zip codes are evenly distributed and casino locations are as apt to be near areas of high growth (red) as low growth (blue). On the next map, there are more blue areas of relatively low growth in lottery ticket sales, especially around casinos. Charles Vickery 5

18 Impact of VLTs on Lottery Ticket Sales in New York This map shows the percent change in lottery ticket sales by zip code for 2005 compared to During this time, lottery ticket sales grew by an average of 10.8%. Red areas show zip codes with at least $5,000 in annual sales and at least average growth. Blue areas show zip codes with at least $5,000 in annual sales and below average growth. Note that there is a lot more below average growth north of New York City and most casinos (blue dots) are in areas of below average growth in lottery ticket sales (blue). New York s racetrack casinos first opened in January, Charles Vickery 6

19 Impact of VLTs on Lottery Ticket Sales in New York These maps show growth in lottery ticket sales relative to casinos in New York and may make the previous point more clearly. If you point to any red areas on the top map, lottery ticket sales within a 10-mile radius of that point exceeded 18% between 2001 and 2003 (average change during this period was 25.0%). Blue areas on the top map indicate that lottery ticket sales grew by less than 18% within a 10-mile radius. Most casinos fell in areas of relatively strong lottery ticket growth between 2001 and The bottom map shows the same information for 2003 vs. 2005, after several racetrack casinos were introduced. Red areas indicate that lottery ticket sales growth within 10 miles exceeded 7% (average change during this period was 10.8%). Blue areas indicate that lottery ticket sales within 10 miles grew by less than 7%. Most casinos fell in areas of relatively weak lottery ticket sales growth between 2003 and Casinos have had the effect of dousing growth in lottery ticket sales, which we ll see in the numbers in a minute. Some might wonder if these differences in growth rates are due to the nature of casinos being near areas of concentrated populations perhaps urban areas experienced different economic circumstances than more rural areas. However, if you look at the center of the bottom map, the blue dot is Turning Stone Casino. Just to the west of that is Syracuse, a large urban area that experienced strong growth in ticket sales. South of Syracuse on that map, along the NY/PA border, is a yellow triangle representing the future location (now operating) of Tioga Downs, which also experienced strong growth in ticket sales. Finally, there was strong growth in lottery ticket sales in the NYC area, which didn t Charles Vickery yet have casinos. 7

20 Impact of VLTs on Lottery Ticket Sales in New York This graph shows the percent change in lottery ticket sales compared to the prior year relative to New York s first racetrack casino, Saratoga Gaming & Raceway. Four bars are shown for each year, comparing growth to the prior year. The blue bar, to the left of each year, shows growth in lottery ticket sales within 25 miles of Saratoga Gaming. The red bar shows growth miles away. The yellow bar shows growth at least 50 miles away. The green bar shows the growth rate for all of New York. Notice that growth within 50 miles of Saratoga, and certainly within 25 miles of Saratoga, mirrored state-wide growth during Saratoga Gaming and Raceway casino opened in January, During 2004, growth in ticket sales within 50 miles of the casino were very low. While statewide growth had slowed considerably, it was more notable around the casino. Differences still existed in Similar patterns existed for New York s other racetrack casinos. Charles Vickery 8

21 Impact of VLTs on Lottery Ticket Sales in New York New York Racetrack Casinos VLT Net Machine Revenues Since Inception Week Ending 01/31/04 thru Week Ending 01/06/07 Racetrack Casino Saratoga Finger Lakes Fair Grounds Mighty M Batavia Tioga Downs Yonkers Vernon Downs All Locations Opened Week Ending 01/31/04 02/21/04 03/20/04 07/03/04 05/21/05 07/08/06 10/14/06 10/28/06 01/31/04 Net Machine Revenue $302,181,106 $214,458,916 $107,835,820 $177,918,746 $39,121,041 $21,521,246 $55,082,289 $7,722,775 $925,841,939 Aid to Education $165,616,283 $116,565,586 $58,083,618 $95,119,255 $19,560,513 $10,760,618 $29,896,901 $3,861,387 $499,464,161 Percent to Education 54.81% 54.35% 53.86% 53.46% 50.00% 50.00% 54.28% 50.00% 53.95% There are a lot of numbers on this chart, mainly for the record. I ll discuss just a few of them. This shows the names of New York s racetrack casinos that have opened, including the week opened, net machine revenue to-date and aid to education. Total net machine revenue to-date (January, 2004 through the first week of January, 2007) is $926 million. Nearly a half-billion has gone toward education, or 54% of net machine revenue, excluding New York Lottery s administrative costs. Net machine revenue, as used here, is the amount remaining after paying winners and before further revenue distributions. Charles Vickery 9

22 Impact of VLTs on Lottery Ticket Sales in New York New York Casinos That Opened in 2004 Annual NY Lottery Ticket Sales within 50 Miles ($US Millions) Finger Lakes Buffalo Raceway Seneca Allegheny Saratoga Gaming Monticello Combined Total 1,588 1,562 1,550 1,493 1,290 1, lottery ticket sales within 50 miles of these locations were 25% of statewide sales, down from 28.2% in This table lists New York casinos that opened during Seneca Allegheny was an Indian casino and the others were racetrack casinos. This table lists combined NY Lottery ticket sales within 50 miles of these locations. Lottery ticket sales within 50 miles of these locations was $1.6 billion during 2005, represented 25.0% of statewide sales. These same areas accounted for 28.2% of lottery ticket sales in Charles Vickery 10

23 Impact of VLTs on Lottery Ticket Sales in New York New York Lottery Ticket Sales Relative to Distance from NY Casinos That Opened During 2004 ($US Billions) NY Total % Change % % % % % 4.07 Less than 50 Miles % Change % % % % % 1.15 At least 50 Miles % Change % % % % % 2.92 This table lists New York Lottery ticket sales relative to distance from NY casinos that opened during 2004, as listed on the previous slide. Sales are shown in billions of US dollars. Total NY lottery ticket sales, summarized on the first two lines, were $6.36 billion in 2005, representing a 5.65% increase compared to Lottery ticket sales within 50 miles of casinos that opened during 2004 are summarized on the next two lines. These sales were $1.59 billion in 2005, representing a 1.67% increase compared to Sales at least 50 miles away from these casinos are shown on the final two lines. These sales were $4.77 billion in 2005, representing a 7.04% increase compared to Compare the growth rates at least 50 miles away from these casinos to those within 50 miles. Looking at these numbers, it seems possible that sales within 50 miles of these casinos were at least 3% below expectations. If that is a fair assumption, then lottery ticket sales within 50 miles of these casinos were about $45 million below expectations during This represents just 0.71% of statewide lottery ticket sales, but 15% of VLT net revenues at these locations. These relationships are unproven here, but merit further study to better understand the total contribution of VLT revenues to education. How much of VLT revenues represent new money for education as opposed to a transfer from lottery ticket sales to VLT net revenues. Charles Vickery 11

24 Impact of VLTs on Lottery Ticket Sales in New York Thank You Charles Vickery 273 E. Mt. Vernon St. Oxford, PA (610) Copyright 2007 Charles Vickery Charles Vickery 12