Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission

Transcription

1 Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission Winter Flounder Technical Committee Report on the Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Winter Flounder Stock and Recommendations for 015 Fishing Year October 17, 01 Revised on October 3, 01 Participants Steve Correia (MA DMF) Paul Nitschke (NEFSC) Tony Wood (NEFSC) John Maniscalco (NYS DEC) Penny Howell (CT DEEP) Linda Barry (NJ DEP) Vincent Manfredi (MA DMF) Katie Drew (ASMFC) Melissa Yuen (ASMFC) The Winter Flounder Techncial Committeee (TC) met via conference call to review recent trends in survey indices for the Southern New England /Mid-Atlantic (SNE-MA) and the recent operational assessment for Gulf of Maine (GOM) stocks. The TC discussed specifications for the 015 fishing season relative to updated information for both stocks. The TC compiled data from fisheries-independent surveys (bottom trawl surveys) conducted by state and federal agencies to produce indices of abundance and biomass for SNE/MA winter flounder. Paul Nitschke (Northeast Fisheries Science Center) provided an overview of the operational stock assessment update for Gulf of Maine winter flounder completed in August 01. This assessment is updated through 013. Review of Biomass and Abundance Indices for SNE/MA Winter Flounder The Southern New England Mid-Atlantic stock was last assessed at SARC 5 in June 011. The terminal of the assessment was 010. The TC examined a variety of survey indices covery a broad geographic area. Nearly all the survey indices are near time-series lows (Figures 1-). The TC concludes that the SNE-MA winter flounder biomass remains near time-series low. Young of indices generally remain low, although a few indices have improved in recent s. Rebuilding is likely to be slow (if at all) especially if recruitment remains poor. Advisory panel s observations of larger fish, but fewer small fish is consistent with low recruitment indices. Total catch has been less than the commercial annual catch limit in recent s. Based on comments from Advisory Panel members, the reason for lower catches is due to fewer fish and less interest in this species in recent s. The New England Fisheries Management Council had selected a constant catch approach. The TC did not have latest catch information and did not have time to examine changes in length distribution or age structure. This is more appropriately done when updating the assessment (tentatively scheduled for Fall 015). Trends in eight young-of-the- (YOY) survey indices for Southern New England Mid- Atlantic winter flounder are shown in Figure 5. Note that the surveys cover different time frames (Table 1). Four of the surveys, CT Seine, RI Coastal Pond, RI Narragansett Bay, NY ASMFC Winter Flounder Technical Committee Report: October 01: Revised 1

2 Peconic Bay) are at or near the 5 th quantile in recent period 01-13). The MA Seine survey shows a modest increase from record low abundance during 3 period (008-10) and has varied between the time series 5 th quantile and median for the past four s (011-1). The NY seine surveys in Jamaica Bay, Littleneck Bay and Manhasset Bay of Long Island show divergent trends, with Manhasset and Littleneck increasing to near or above median recruitment and Jamaica Bay remaining at or near record lows for the last s of the series (010-13). 015 Fishing Year Recommendations Gulf of Maine: The Northeast Fisheries Science Center completed an operational stock assessment for the GOM stock in August 01. At the time of the TC s meeting via conference call, the NEFMC Scientific and Statistical Committee had not set the ABCs for the GOM stock, but the TC expects a 50% reduction in the ABC and comparable reduction in the state-water sub-component. The NEFMC s SSC committee recommends setting OFL=688 and ABC=510 mt based on their meeting on October 0, 01. Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic: The specification for this stock remain unchanged. The the TC recommends maintaining status quo management measures for this stock because trawl surveys indicate that no rebuilding. Based on personal communication with NOAA Fisheries staff, the ABC will be maintained at 1,676 mt. ASMFC Winter Flounder Technical Committee Report: October 01: Revised

3 Figure 1. Trends in biomass indices for four bottom trawl surveys. Note that y-axis scales vary among panels and time series length varies among indices. Solid red line is time series median. Dashed red lines are the 75 th and 5 th quantiles. Trends in spring SNE-MA winter flounder biomass indices 1 NEFSC 0 MA 10 biomass index CT NJ- April Neamap ASMFC Winter Flounder Technical Committee Report: October 01: Revised 3

4 Figure. Trends in abundance indices for five bottom trawl spring surveys. Note that y-axis scales vary among panels. Solid red line is time series median. Dashed red lines are the 75 th and 5 th quantiles. ASMFC Winter Flounder Technical Committee Report: October 01: Revised

5 Figure 3. Trends in biomass indices for five bottom trawl fall surveys. Note that y-axis scales vary among panels. Solid red line is time series median. Dashed red lines are the 75 th and 5 th quantiles. Trends in fall SNE-MA winter flounder biomass indices NEFSC biomass index 0 3 MA Neamap Figure. Trends in abundance indices for five bottom trawl fall surveys. Note that y-axis scales vary among panels. Solid red line is time series median. Dashed red lines are the 75 th and 5 th quantiles. ASMFC Winter Flounder Technical Committee Report: October 01: Revised 5

6 Figure 5. Trends in eight young of the survey indices for Southern New England- Mid- Atlantic winter flounder. Y axis is logarithmic and varies among panels. Solid red line is time series median, dashed lines are 5 th and 75 th quantiles (interquartile range). Black line is a fit from a gam. Gray shaded area represents approximately 95% confidence interval on fitted value. Note that of last data varies among surveys (see Table 1). Table 1. Starting and most recent for eight YOY indices for SNE-MA winter flounder. Survey Starting most recent Ma seine RI coastal pond RI Narragansett Bay CT Seine NY Peconic Bay NY Jamaica Bay NY Little neck NY Manhasseet ASMFC Winter Flounder Technical Committee Report: October 01: Revised 6