Key Findings from a Statewide Survey of Wyoming Voters October 2018 Lori Weigel

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1 Key Findings from a Statewide Survey of Wyoming Voters October 2018 Lori Weigel #181147

2 2 Partners Involved

3 Methodology A statewide survey of 600 registered voters throughout Wyoming conducted on both landline and cell phones. Survey conducted October 9-13, Statistically valid sample with margin of sampling error +4.0 at the 95% confidence interval for the total sample; margins of error for sub-groups will vary. Comparisons are made to similarly conducted surveys from 2007 and

4 Two-thirds of the state s voters identify as either a hunter or an angler, far above national rates. Hunters Wyoming National Anglers 55% Very 4

5 Wyoming residents also say that they engage in outdoor recreation at far higher rates than voters nationally. Wyoming National Camping 60% 42% Hiking Bird watching and viewing wildlife Riding an off-road vehicle or snowmobile Boating Mountain biking 58% 49% 48% 30% 34% 15% 30% 30% 20% 12% 5

6 Conservation Issues in Mix of Wyoming Concerns

7 A majority say conservation issues are of primary importance; nine-in-ten say at least somewhat important. Importance of Conservation Issues in Support for Elected Official Compared to other issues like the economy, health care and education, how important are issues involving public lands, waters, and wildlife for you in deciding whether to support an elected public official? 91% 55% Very Important, A Primary Factor Total Not Important Total Important +82% 9% Not at all Important Very Important 7

8 Voters across party lines view conservation issues as very important in their assessment of elected officials. +82% +82% +92% +74% 96% 91% 91% 87% 55% 54% 54% 57% 9% 9% 4% 13% Overall Republicans (68%) Independents (12%) Democrats (19%) Very/Primary Importance Total Important Not at all Important Total Not Important Compared to other issues like the economy, health care and education, how important are issues involving public lands, waters, and wildlife for you in deciding whether to support an elected public official? 8

9 Rural voters are the most likely to say conservation issues are of primary importance to them. +82% +81% +83% +82% 91% 90% 91% 91% 55% 49% 51% 63% 9% 9% 8% 9% Overall City/Suburb (21%) Small Town (44%) Rural (34%) Very/Primary Importance Total Important Not at all Important Total Not Important Compared to other issues like the economy, health care and education, how important are issues involving public lands, waters, and wildlife for you in deciding whether to support an elected public official? 9

Loss of family farms and ranches* Pollution of rivers, lakes and streams* Decline in numbers of big game animals, such as moose and mule deer* Low level of water in rivers* Loss of habitat for fish

10 Some conservation issues are on par with jobs. Items Ranked by Extremely/Very Serious Quality of public education for K-12 students* A lack of health insurance coverage^ A lack of good-paying jobs^ Availability of water for farming and ranching* Loss of family farms and ranches* Pollution of rivers, lakes and streams* Decline in numbers of big game animals, such as moose and mule deer* Low level of water in rivers* Loss of habitat for fish and wildlife^ Natural areas and ranchlands being split up by new housing and commercial development* Natural areas and ranchlands being split up by oil and gas development^ The impact of oil and gas drilling on our land, air and water* Availability of water for wildlife and recreation^ Unplanned growth and development^ Loss of the rural character of Wyoming s communities^ Split sample: *Represents N=306 respondents ^Represents N=294 respondents Extremely/Very Serious 49% 43% 42% 41% 41% 41% 40% 40% 35% 34% 32% 29% 25% 23% 57% Total Serious 65% 62% 60% 65% 59% 80% 77% 76% 77% 75% 73% 72% 82% 82% 78% I m going to read you a list of issues some people have told me are problems in Wyoming while others may not be. After I read each one, please tell me if you think it is an extremely serious problem, a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, or not a problem in Wyoming. 10

11 Conservation concerns increased in last four years. Conservation Issues Ranked by Net Difference 2014 %Extremely/Very Serious 2018 %Extremely/Very Serious Net Difference Pollution of rivers, lakes and streams* 18% 41% +23% Loss of habitat for fish and wildlife^ 24% 40% +16% Availability of water for wildlife and recreation^ 16% 29% +13% Decline in numbers of big game animals, such as moose and mule deer* 31% 41% +10% Natural areas and ranchlands being split up by oil and gas development^ 24% 34% +10% The impact of oil and gas drilling on our land, air and water* 22% 32% +10% Availability of water for farming and ranching* 34% 42% +8% Natural areas and ranchlands being split up by new housing and commercial development* 27% 35% +8% Loss of family farms and ranches* 35% 41% +6% Split sample: *Represents N=306 respondents ^Represents N=294 respondents I m going to read you a list of issues some people have told me are problems in Wyoming while others may not be. After I read each one, please tell me if you think it is an extremely serious problem, a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, or not a problem in Wyoming. 11

49% 63% 82% 77% A lack of good-paying jobs^ May 2007 31% 28% 43% 57% 70% 82% Availability of water for farming and ranching* May 2007 57% 34% 42% 85% 72% 76% Loss of family farms and ranches* May

12 Concerns about threats to farms and ranchlands are on par with health care and the economy. Items Ranked by 2018 Extremely/Very Serious Quality of public education for K-12 students* Extremely/Very Serious 30% 57% Total Serious 63% 80% A lack of health insurance coverage^ May % 38% 49% 63% 82% 77% A lack of good-paying jobs^ May % 28% 43% 57% 70% 82% Availability of water for farming and ranching* May % 34% 42% 85% 72% 76% Loss of family farms and ranches* May % 35% 41% 74% 76% 82% Split sample: *Represents N=306 respondents ^Represents N=294 respondents I m going to read you a list of issues some people have told me are problems in Wyoming while others may not be. After I read each one, please tell me if you think it is an extremely serious problem, a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, or not a problem in Wyoming. 12

as moose and mule deer* May 2007 32% 31% 41% 63% 66% 75% Low level of water in rivers* 40% 78% Loss of habitat for fish and wildlife^ May 2007 28% 24% 40% 63% 58% 73% Natural areas and ranchlands

13 Concerns about water and wildlife have increased. Items Ranked by 2018 Extremely/Very Serious Pollution of rivers, lakes and streams* May 2007 Extremely/Very Serious 20% 18% 41% Total Serious 60% 62% 75% Decline in numbers of big game animals, such as moose and mule deer* May % 31% 41% 63% 66% 75% Low level of water in rivers* 40% 78% Loss of habitat for fish and wildlife^ May % 24% 40% 63% 58% 73% Natural areas and ranchlands being split up by new housing and commercial development^ May % 27% 35% 78% 66% 72% Split sample: *Represents N=306 respondents ^Represents N=294 respondents I m going to read you a list of issues some people have told me are problems in Wyoming while others may not be. After I read each one, please tell me if you think it is an extremely serious problem, a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, or not a problem in Wyoming. 13

oil and gas drilling on our land, air and water* 22% 32% 50% 62% Availability of water for wildlife and recreation^ May 2007 40% 16% 29% 49% 60% 74% Unplanned growth and development^ May 2007 31% 17%

14 Impacts of development are in a lower tier of concerns. Items Ranked by 2018 Extremely/Very Serious Natural areas and ranchlands being split up by oil and gas development^ May 2007 Extremely/Very Serious 31% 24% 34% Total Serious 68% 62% 65% The impact of oil and gas drilling on our land, air and water* 22% 32% 50% 62% Availability of water for wildlife and recreation^ May % 16% 29% 49% 60% 74% Unplanned growth and development^ May % 17% 25% 67% 59% 65% Loss of the rural character of Wyoming s communities^ May % 16% 23% 63% 49% 59% Split sample: *Represents N=306 respondents ^Represents N=294 respondents I m going to read you a list of issues some people have told me are problems in Wyoming while others may not be. After I read each one, please tell me if you think it is an extremely serious problem, a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, or not a problem in Wyoming. 14

15 Significant Support for Conservation Funding

16 Wyoming voters have consistently supported increased investments in conservation. In general would you favor or oppose setting aside more state money to protect land, air, water, wildlife habitat and ranchlands in Wyoming? +52% +34% +47% 74% 65% 71% 22% 31% 24% 45% 34% 41% May 2007 February 2014 October 2018 Total Favor Total Oppose 16

17 More than three-in-five support full funding of the Trust. State Legislature Funding Wyoming Wildlife and Natural Resource Trust More specifically, the State Legislature has the authority to dedicate money into the Wyoming Wildlife and Natural Resource Trust, a fund which will earn interest to be used for conserving wildlife habitat, ranchlands and water. The Legislature has invested nearly one hundred five million dollars in the Wildlife and Natural Resource Trust, but fully funding the Trust would mean allocating up to 200 million dollars. 63% 37% Strongly Total Support +31% 32% 18% Strongly Total Oppose Knowing this, would you support or oppose the State Legislature fully funding the Wyoming Wildlife and Natural Resource Trust to preserve wildlife habitat, ranchlands and water in the state? 17

18 There is solid support for full funding across party and ideological lines. State Legislature Funding Wyoming Wildlife and Natural Resource Trust by Party +15% +51% +24% +33% +61% 55% 74% 60% 64% 78% 40% 23% 36% 31% 17% 28% 22% 41% 11% 31% 19% 37% 18% 56% 10% Conservative Republicans (48%) Moderate/Liberal Republicans (19%) Republicans (68%) Independents (12%) Democrats (19%) Total Support Total Oppose Knowing this, would you support or oppose the State Legislature fully funding the Wyoming Wildlife and Natural Resource Trust to preserve wildlife habitat, ranchlands and water in the state? 18

35% 22% 29% 19% 41% 6% 41% 14% 36% 26% Central (27%) Northeast (17%) Northwest (16%) Southeast (25%) Southwest (15%) Total Support Total Oppose

19 A majority in every area of the state expresses support for funding up to the $200 million level. State Legislature Funding Wyoming Wildlife and Natural Resource Trust by Region +19% +30% +47% +45% +16% 58% 63% 71% 70% 54% 39% 33% 24% 25% 38% 35% 22% 29% 19% 41% 6% 41% 14% 36% 26% Central (27%) Northeast (17%) Northwest (16%) Southeast (25%) Southwest (15%) Total Support Total Oppose Knowing this, would you support or oppose the State Legislature fully funding the Wyoming Wildlife and Natural Resource Trust to preserve wildlife habitat, ranchlands and water in the state? 19

20 There is solid support in every type of community. State Legislature Funding Wyoming Wildlife and Natural Resource Trust by Geography +38% +37% +21% 67% 65% 59% 29% 28% 38% 38% 18% City/Suburb (21%) 41% 37% Total Support 14% Small Town (44%) 18% Total Oppose 36% Rural (34%) 22% Knowing this, would you support or oppose the State Legislature fully funding the Wyoming Wildlife and Natural Resource Trust to preserve wildlife habitat, ranchlands and water in the state? 20

21 Sportsmen are more apt to support full funding. State Legislature Funding Wyoming Wildlife and Natural Resource Trust by Sportsmen +34% +29% +37% +27% 65% 62% 66% 60% 31% 33% 29% 33% 36% 18% 35% 20% 37% 17% 37% 18% Total Hunter/Angler (66%) Total Hunter (54%) Total Angler (54%) Non-Sportsmen (34%) Total Support Total Oppose Knowing this, would you support or oppose the State Legislature fully funding the Wyoming Wildlife and Natural Resource Trust to preserve wildlife habitat, ranchlands and water in the state? 21

22 There is solid support among outdoor recreationists. State Legislature Funding Wyoming Wildlife and Natural Resource Trust by Outdoor Activities +36% +41% +50% +31% +41% +45% 66% 69% 73% 64% 68% 71% 30% 28% 23% 33% 27% 26% 39% 17% 46% 15% 44% 13% 34% 17% 39% 14% 49% 15% Camping (60%) Hiking (58%) Bird Watching (48%) Total Support Using Off-Road Vehicles (34%) Total Oppose Boating (30%) Mountain Biking (20%) Knowing this, would you support or oppose the State Legislature fully funding the Wyoming Wildlife and Natural Resource Trust to preserve wildlife habitat, ranchlands and water in the state? 22

23 Moreover, this is the highest level of support for a tax increase to fund conservation in eleven years. Increase in Local Taxes to Support Conservation +14% +2% +20% 55% 41% 50% 48% 59% 39% 19% 28% 16% 30% 25% 28% May 2007 February 2014 October 2018 Total Support Total Oppose Would you support or oppose a small increase in local taxes in order to conserve water quality, wildlife habitat and ranchlands in your county or community? 23

24 Majority of voters across partisan spectrum indicate support for a tax increase to fund conservation. Increase in Local Taxes to Support Conservation by Party +8% +32% +56% 78% 65% 53% 45% 33% 22% 19% 32% 29% 26% 43% 12% Republicans (68%) Independents (12%) Democrats (19%) Total Support Total Oppose Would you support or oppose a small increase in local taxes in order to conserve water quality, wildlife habitat and ranchlands in your county or community? 24

25 What We Did Respondents were read a list of projects that the state of Wyoming currently funds or might undertake in the future to improve the condition of land, air, water, and wildlife in the state. They rated each type of project as extremely important, very important, somewhat important or not important to them for the state to fund. 25

habitat^ 29% 66% Conserving land corridors which wildlife like deer and elk use for migration^ Protecting the greater Yellowstone region* Preserving family farms and ranches^ Preserving our wide

26 Wyoming voters prioritize water and wildlife most. Items Ranked by Extremely/Very Important Protecting and restoring the water quality of rivers, lakes and streams* Extremely Important Extremely/Very Important 31% 69% Protecting fish and wildlife habitat^ 29% 66% Conserving land corridors which wildlife like deer and elk use for migration^ Protecting the greater Yellowstone region* Preserving family farms and ranches^ Preserving our wide open spaces and scenic vistas^ Preserving our western way of life* Protecting the character of our small town communities^ Preserving historic trails and ranches* 28% 33% 23% 19% 21% 15% 14% 64% 62% 59% 58% 51% 45% 43% Helping to grow the outdoor recreation economy* 15% Split sample: *Represents N=306 respondents ^Represents N=294 respondents 40% 26

streams* Extremely Important Extremely/Very Important May 2007 33% 32% 31% 70% 69% 69% Protecting fish and

for migration^ 28% Protecting the greater Yellowstone region* May 2007 35% 29% 33% 66% 65% 62% Preserving family

27 Priorities have been mostly consistent. Items Ranked by 2018 Extremely/Very Important Protecting and restoring the water quality of rivers, lakes and streams* Extremely Important Extremely/Very Important May % 32% 31% 70% 69% 69% Protecting fish and wildlife habitat^ May % 21% 29% 66% 65% 66% Conserving land corridors which wildlife like deer and elk use for migration^ 28% Protecting the greater Yellowstone region* May % 29% 33% 66% 65% 62% Preserving family farms and ranches^ May % 30% 23% 67% 66% 59% Split sample: *Represents N=306 respondents ^Represents N=294 respondents Please tell me how important it would be to you that each project be funded. 27

64% 58% Preserving our western way of life* May 2007 27% 29% 21% 61% 63% 51% Protecting the character of our small town communities^ May 2007 23% 17% 15% 45% 60% 59%

28 Views and way of life elements have declined though. Items Ranked by 2018 Extremely/Very Important Preserving our wide open spaces and scenic vistas^ Extremely Important Extremely/Very Important May % 23% 19% 73% 64% 58% Preserving our western way of life* May % 29% 21% 61% 63% 51% Protecting the character of our small town communities^ May % 17% 15% 45% 60% 59% Preserving historic trails and ranches* Helping to grow the outdoor recreation economy* May 2007 Split sample: *Represents N=306 respondents ^Represents N=294 respondents 22% 15% 14% 15% 60% 51% 43% 40% Please tell me how important it would be to you that each project be funded. 28

29 Public Lands

30 A majority of Wyoming voters oppose states taking over national public lands. State Government Having Authority Over National Public Lands Some Members of Congress have proposed giving state governments authority over national public lands, such as National Forests, or Bureau of Management Lands in its borders. The state government would decide the future management of the lands, but state taxpayers would pay the costs, including the cost of maintenance and preventing and fighting wildfires. 42% 21% Strongly Total Support -12% 54% 39% Strongly Total Oppose Do you support or oppose this proposal? 30

31 Half or more across party lines oppose the idea, although Democratic and independent women more so. State Government Having Authority Over National Public Lands by Party/Gender -3% -7% -16% -40% 47% 50% 51% 44% 40% 56% 28% 68% 27% 35% Republican Men (35%) 25% 31% Republican Women (33%) 14% 51% Ind/Dem 21% Men Strongly (14%) 8% 53% Ind/Dem Women (18%) Total Support Total Oppose Do you support or oppose this proposal? 31

32 Majorities in every type of community also oppose it. State Government Having Authority Over National Public Lands by Geography -11% -14% -10% 52% 56% 53% 41% 42% 43% 20% 35% City/Suburb (21%) 41% 20% Total Support 42% Small Town (44%) Do you support or oppose this proposal? 18% Total Oppose 23% Rural (34%) 37% 32

33 Sportsmen and most outdoor recreationists do too. State Government Having Authority Over National Public Lands by Sportsmen & Outdoor Activities -4% -11% -15% -21% +1% -10% -25% 50% 46% 43% 54% 41% 56% 37% 58% 50% 49% 44% 54% 35% 60% 25% 37% 24% 36% 21% 42% 20% 45% 27% 33% 21% 40% 19% 44% Sportsmen (66%) Camping (60%) Hiking (58%) Total Support Bird Watching (48%) Off-Road Vehicles (34%) Total Oppose Boating (30%) Mountain Biking (20%) Do you support or oppose this proposal? 33

34 Overwhelmingly, voters perceive positive impacts of national public lands. Ranked by % Positive Impact Opportunities for children to explore and learn about nature^ Positive Impact No Impact 86% Negative Impact 11% Wildlife* 84% 8% Protecting clean water* 80% 15% The overall quality of life in Wyoming^ 80% 15% Tourism* Protecting our culture and heritage^ 77% 74% 11% 21% Opportunities for hunting, fishing and outdoor recreation* 73% 14% 11% Protecting clean air^ 72% 22% Jobs and the economy^ Split sample: *Represents N=306 respondents ^Represents N=294 respondents 65% 23% 10% Generally speaking, do you believe enhancing and protecting national public lands, such as national forests, national monuments, and national wildlife refuges has a positive impact, a negative impact, or no real impact on each of the following 34

Those who engage in all types of recreation believe that national public lands benefit outdoor recreation.

Negative Impact 14% 11% Sportsmen 74% 12% 13% Mountain Biking 80% 12% 7% Bird Watching 78% 8% 11% Camping 77% 12% 10%

respondents Generally speaking, do you believe enhancing and protecting national public lands, such as national

35 Those who engage in all types of recreation believe that national public lands benefit outdoor recreation. Ranked by % Positive Impact Opportunities for hunting, fishing and outdoor recreation* Positive Impact 73% No Impact Negative Impact 14% 11% Sportsmen 74% 12% 13% Mountain Biking 80% 12% 7% Bird Watching 78% 8% 11% Camping 77% 12% 10% Hiking 77% 11% 10% Boating 77% 12% 11% Using Off-Road Vehicles 71% 10% 18% Split sample: *Represents N=306 respondents Generally speaking, do you believe enhancing and protecting national public lands, such as national forests, national monuments, and national wildlife refuges has a positive impact, a negative impact, or no real impact on each of the following 35

36 Energy Production

37 Wyoming voters most want to increase solar energy production; least for coal. Production of Energy Source 63% 54% 54% 49% 44% A Lot 23% 14% 10% A Lot 34% A Lot 36% 10% 4% A Lot 37% A Lot 23% 29% 22% 22% 17% A Lot 34% A Lot Solar Natural Gas Wind Coal 16% A Lot Total Increase Keep the Same Total Decrease Moving on, here is a list of specific items related to energy production in Wyoming. Please tell me if you would increase or decrease the production of that energy source, or would you keep it about the same? 37

Voters perceive economic, cost and air benefits; more apt to see views and effect on wildlife as drawbacks of

Ranked by % Positive Impact Jobs and the economy Positive Impact 66% No Impact Negative Impact 19% 13% Ability

in the long-term 44% 32% 22% Wildlife 19% 31% 49% Scenic views 14% 22% 62% Access to private lands for outdoor

38 Voters perceive economic, cost and air benefits; more apt to see views and effect on wildlife as drawbacks of wind development. Ranked by % Positive Impact Jobs and the economy Positive Impact 66% No Impact Negative Impact 19% 13% Ability for farmers and ranchers to make ends meet 47% 33% 16% Air quality 44% 45% 8% The price you pay for electricity in the long-term 44% 32% 22% Wildlife 19% 31% 49% Scenic views 14% 22% 62% Access to private lands for outdoor recreation 13% 46% 37% Now, let s say in the next ten years, more wind energy is produced here in Wyoming. Do you think that would have a positive impact, a negative impact, or no real impact on each of the following: 38

39 Bottom Line

40 The Bottom Line A majority of Wyoming voters say that issues involving public lands, water and wildlife are of primary importance in evaluating elected officials, even when compared to other issues like the economy and healthcare. In fact, a number of conservation-related issues are on par with economic concerns as serious problems facing the state. Voters are registering the highest support in eleven years for funding conservation even if it means a small increase in taxes to do so. There is solid majority support across party lines and throughout the state for fully funding the Wyoming Wildlife and Natural Resource Trust. Wyoming voters also perceive a host of benefits they derive from having national public lands in the state, and a majority reject a proposal for the state to take over authority and cost of those lands. Finally, voters here support increasing production of all energy sources in the state, in particular solar energy. Focusing on increasing wind production, they perceive benefits to the economy, air quality and costs for electricity, but downsides for wildlife and scenic views. 40

41 Questions?

42 42 Partners Involved

43 Lori Weigel (303)

TRCP National Sportsmen s Survey Online/phone survey of 1,000 hunters and anglers throughout the United States

#17144 TRCP National Sportsmen s Survey Online/phone survey of 1,000 hunters and anglers throughout the United States Methodology Public Opinion Strategies conducted a national survey of N =1,000 voters