Leaning Into Adaptation

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1 Leaning Into Adaptation GFNMS Ocean Summit, May 17, 2016 Jack Liebster, Planning Manager, Marin County

2 Marin County C-SMART

3 Sea Level Rise Adaptation Process Evaluate Science Info. Implement & Monitor Identify Assets Plan Action Assess Vulnerability Evaluate Adaptations

4 Identifying Future Risk with CoSMoS 1. Global forcing using the latest climate models 2. Drives global and regional wave models 3. Scaled down to local hazards projections

5 State of California Official Guidance

6 Potential Future Sea Level Rise

7 Methods C - SMART SCENARIOS Table 1. Selected Sea Level Rise & Storms Scenarios Baseline: No new Sea Level Rise + No storm Scenario 1: 10 inches Sea Level Rise + Annual Storm Scenario 2: 10 inches Sea Level Rise + 20-year Storm Scenario 3: 20 inches Sea Level Rise + 20-year Storm Scenario 4: 40 inches Sea Level Rise year Storm Scenario 5: 80 inches Sea Level Rise year Storm Near-term Medium-term Long-term Community Development Agency Collaboration: Sea-level Marin Adaptation Response Team December 10, Slide 7

8 EXPOSURE SLR VS. ANNUAL STORM

9 ASSET MAPPING & INVENTORYING I & M Plan Science Assets Vulnerabl. Mapping people; livelihoods; environmental services and resources; infrastructure; and economic, social, & cultural assets Evaluate Agricultural land Protected areas Public beaches and parks Dunes River & streams Wetland areas Habitat areas Oyster beds Sandspits Shorebirds Roads and transportation Trails Buildings Residential development Commercial buildings Schools Elderly/mobility limited facilities Hotels/Motels Harbors and marinas Fishing, aquaculture facilities Utilities & services Septic leach fields Water Supply wells Archeological/ Paleontological sites Historic sites

10 Asset Manager Interview Tool Community Development Agency Marin Coast Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Nov. 9, Slide 10

11

12 Community Meetings

13 Staking out Sea Level Rise

14 Join in Promoting Awareness?

15 Coming to your door.

16

17 Key Findings 4,700 acres exposed at mean higher high water Mean higher high water: The average high tide, thus some sites could be dry during lower tides. Community Development Agency Marin Coast Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Nov. 9, Slide 17

18 Key Findings Roads including Shoreline Hwy, Calle del Arroyo, Olema-Bolinas Rd., and Sir Francis Drake Community Development Agency Marin Coast Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Nov. 9, Slide 18

19 Key Findings 1,100 buildings 1,300 parcels 22% of residential, 33% of commercial Community Development Agency Marin Coast Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Nov. 9, Slide 19

20 Key Findings $300 million losses in assessed value - market value is much higher $7 million in lost property tax $700,000 lost Transient Occupancy Tax Community Development Agency Marin Coast Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Nov. 9, Slide 20

21 Key Findings Every exposed building would face waste and/or drinking water impacts Community Development Agency Marin Coast Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Nov. 9, Slide 21

22 Key Findings Beaches could flood and erode Community Development Agency Marin Coast Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Nov. 9, Slide 22

23 Key Findings Marshes could convert to mud flats, and may move upland Community Development Agency Marin Coast Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Nov. 9, Slide 23

24 Miller Avenue Entry to Mill Valley

25 December 3, Mill Valley

26 December 3, Mill Valley

27 Components of Coastal Water Levels breaker zone waves increase in height towards breaking zone (shoaling) wave run-up wave set-up storm surge seasonal effects tide difference sea level rise 2 m m 1.0 m 0.3 m 2 m 1 m Stinson Beach 50 cm SLR SLR only SLR + annual storm

28 Periodicity of Inundation

29 Annual Range

30 Nov. 14, 2015 Adaptation Workshop Community Development Agency Marin Coast Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Nov. 9, Slide 30

31 OWLize Show the Future: Bothin Marsh

32 OWLize Shows the Options: Bothin Marsh

33

34 Adaptation Measures 1. PROTECT 2. ACCOMMODATE 3. RETREAT

35 Strategy Options

36 Potential Increase to Building Elevations FEMA Base Flood Elevation + Sea Level Rise Depth - Finished Floor Elevations or Topography = Community Development Agency Marin Coast Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Nov. 9, Slide 36

37 Digital Elevation Model MARIN COUNTY 2013 Community Development Agency Marin Coast Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Nov. 9, Slide 37

38 Floor Elevation MARIN COUNTY 2012 Community Development Agency Marin Coast Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Nov. 9, Slide 38

39 Base Flood Elevations (BFE) FEMA FIRM MAPS, 2015 Community Development Agency Marin Coast Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Nov. 9, Slide 39

40 Sea Level Rise depths USGS COASTAL STORM MODELING SYSTEM Community Development Agency Marin Coast Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Nov. 9, Slide 40

41 Potential Elevation Increase BFE + SLR FFE/DEM Community Development Agency Marin Coast Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Nov. 9, Slide 41

42 Development Requirements: FEMA+LCP Community Development Agency Marin Coast Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Nov. 9, Slide 42

43 a dapt ive man age ment /əˈdaptiv/ man-ij-muh nt (Noun) An iterative method of decision making in the face of uncertainty that reduces uncertainty by continuous monitoring; used especially in the management of ecosystems etc.

44 Living with Water Rotterdam, The Netherlands High-end modern housing in a stormwater pond

45 Horizontal Levees & Tidal Marshes Pros: Uses landscape to attenuate waves, provides habitat Cons: Cost for earthwork, larger ROW Community Development Agency Marin Coast Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Nov. 9, Slide 45

46 Restore Native Dune Vegetation Community Development Agency Marin Coast Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Nov. 9, Slide 46

47 Offshore Structures Pros: Uses landscape to attenuate waves, provides habitat Cons: Cost for earthwork, larger ROW Breakwaters Oyster Reefs Community Development Agency Marin Coast Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Nov. 9, Slide 47

48 Amphibious Architecture 48

49 SO WHAT S NEW? Sausalito SF Guardian Community Development Agency Black Point/Green Point Communities Plan March 8, 2016 marincounty.org/blackpoint Floating Homes Slide 49

50 Thank You QUESTIONS & ANSWERS Community Development Agency 3501 Civic Center Drive, Rm. 308 San Rafael, CA T Caden at the Beach September Credit: Rendel

Collaboration: Sea-level Marin Adaptation Response Team (C-SMART)

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