Zions Bank Economic Overview
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1 Zions Bank Economic Overview Logan Rotary Club June 28, 2018
2 Dow Tops 26,000 Up 48% Since 2016 Election Jan 26, ,616 Oct 30, ,888 Source: Wall Street Journal
3 Dow Around Correction Territory Down More than Ten Percent Jan 26, ,616 Source: Wall Street Journal
4 Volatility Returns to the Stock Market Dow Jones Industrial Average 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 23,000 22,000 21,000 20,000 19,000 Jan-2017 Feb-2017 Mar-2017 Apr-2017 May-2017 Jun-2017 Jul-2017 Aug-2017 Sep-2017 Oct-2017 Nov-2017 Dec-2017 Jan-2018 Feb-2018 Mar-2018 Apr-2018 May-2018 Jun-2018
5 Why?
6 Business Optimism Booming Source: Trading Economics, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
7 Consumer Confidence Remains High 140 June Above 110 indicates economic prosperity Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Source: The Conference Board
8 Source: Trading Economics, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Optimism Booming
9 Trumponomics Repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act Tax Reform Increase spending on infrastructure and military Reduce government regulations Renegotiate trade deals But can they get it done?
10 US Tax Reform Overview Individual (Sunset in 2025) Small changes to tax rates Increase standard deduction Eliminate personal exemption Double child tax credit Lower mortgage interest deduction from $1m to $750k Cap deductions for state and local taxes at $10,000 Eliminate various itemized deductions Remove the health insurance mandate (permanent) Corporate (Permanent) Reduce corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% Pass-through income deduction of 20% Repatriation of foreign income at 15.5% (territorial tax system) Economic Impact Score of around $1.5 trillion Many US companies already increasing wages and bonuses Increase GDP by up to 0.5% Fed reaction?
11 Economic Growth Slowed at the Start of % 4.0% Q % 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Personal Consumption Fixed Investment Net Exports Inventories Government Real GDP Growth Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
12 500 May Marks 92 Straight Months of Job Growth Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
13 The US is Currently in the 2 nd Longest Economic Expansion on Record Duration of Economic Expansion by Months July 2009 November 2001 March 1991 December 1982 March 1975 November 1970 February 1961 April 1958 May 1954 October 1949 October Source: NBER
14 National Employment Change Percent Change in National Employment by Industry: May 2017 to May 2018 Ntl. Res. & Mining 8.6% Construction 4.1% Manufacturing 2.1% Trade, Trans., Utilities 1.3% Information -0.7% Financial Activity 1.5% Prof. & Bus. Serv. 2.4% Ed. & Health Serv. 1.9% Leisure & Hospitality 1.6% Other Services Government 0.1% 1.1% Total: 1.6% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
15 National Employment Change Total Change in Number of Jobs by Industry in Thousands: May 2017 to May 2018 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
16 US Unemployment Rate at Lowest-Level Since April % 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% May % 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 5.0% = Full Employment 3.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
17 68% Labor Force Participation Fell Slightly in May 67% 66% 65% May % 64% 63% 62% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
18 Labor Force Participation Among Lowest Level in Almost 40 Years 68% 66% 64% 62% 60% 58% 56% Apr % Mar % May % Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
19 Baby Boomers Head for Retirement 68% 38% U.S. Participation Rate 67% 66% 65% 64% 63% 62% 61% 36% 34% 32% 30% 28% 26% 24% 22% Share of % 20% U.S. Participation Rate Age 55+ Share of Working Age Pop Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
20 Long-Term Decline of the Teenage Workforce 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate Participation Rate Ages Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
21
22 Standard of Living Best Ever
23 Fewer than One Unemployed Worker Per Job Opening April Unemployed/Openings Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
24 Annual Wage Growth Rose in May 4.0% 3.5% May % 3.0% 2.5% Average 2.4% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
25 Source: Wall Street Journal Wage Growth Lagging Job Growth
26 Inflation is slowly rising 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% Fed s Preferred Level May % -3.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
27 Federal Funds Target Rate Sees 6th Increase in Over a Decade 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% Federal Funds Target Rate = 1.50% to 1.75% 1.0% 0.0% Source: U.S. Federal Reserve
28 Federal Funds Target Rate Sees 7th Increase in 3 Years 6.0% 5.0% Recession 4.0% 3.0% Federal Funds Target Rate = 1.75% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Federal Funds Target Rate Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors and BEA
29 June 2018 Fed Rate Increase Projections 4% 3% 2% 2.1% 2.4% 2.9% 3.1% 3.4% 3.4% 2.9% 2.9% 1% 0% Longer run Mar Jun Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
30 3.0% Yield Curve Declines to Lowest-Level Since year minus 2-year spread 2.50% 2.0% 1.50% 1.0% 0.50% 0.0% -0.50% -1.0% Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
31 Oil Prices and Production on the Rise Oil Rig Count 1,700 1,500 1,300 1, $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 Oil Prices US Oil Rigs Oil (WTI Crude) 500 $ $0 Sources: Baker Hughes and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
32 HolyFrontier Fire Affecting Gas Prices Across Intermountain West Salt Lake City Date of Fire Source: Gas Buddy
33 Economic Protectionism Increases Costs Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
34 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Trade Wars Hurt Growth
35 Utah Economic Conditions
36 CA 0.6% OR 1.4% WA 1.7% NV 2.0% Utah Population 3 rd Fastest Growing in U.S. ID 2.2% UT 1.9% AZ 1.6% AK -0.2% MT 1.1% WY -1.0% CO 1.4% NM 0.1% Percent Change: 2016 to 2017 U.S. Rate = 0.7% ND 0.0% SD 0.9% NE 0.7% TX 1.4% KS 0.3% 0.2% OK 0.2% MN 0.9% IA 0.5% MO 0.4% AR 0.5% WI 0.4% LA 0.0% IL -0.3% MS 0.0% MI 0.3% IN 0.5% TN 1.0% AL 0.3% OH 0.3% KY 0.4% WV -0.7% VT 0.0% PA 0.1% NC 1.1% SC 1.3% GA 1.1% VA 0.7% FL 1.6% NH 0.6% NY 0.1% ME 0.4% DC 1.4% CT 0.0% DE 1.0% MD 0.5% MA 0.5% RI 0.2% NJ 0.4% 1.5% + 0.7% to 1.4% 0.2% to 0.6% 0.0% to 0.1% Loss HI -0.1% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
37 Utah Counties Growth Outpacing Nation Percent Change: 2016 to 2017 U.S. Rate = 0.7% 1.5% + 0.7% to 1.4% 0.2% to 0.6% 0.0% to 0.1% Loss Source: U.S. Census Bureau
38 Utah Population and Components of Change Total Population 3,600,000 3,300,000 3,000,000 2,700,000 2,400,000 2,100,000 1,800,000 1,500,000 1,200, , , , ,101,833 22,587 34,886 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000-20,000 Components of Population Change Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population Sources: U.S. Census Bureau e = estimate, f = forecast
39 Utah Population Growth Rates By County 2016 to 2017 State Average = 1.9% 3.0%+ 1.8% to 2.9% 1.0% to 1.7% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Source: U.S. Census Bureau
40 Cache County Average Growth Rates 2010 to 2017 State Average = 1.7% 3.0%+ 1.8% to 2.9% 1.0% to 1.7% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Source: U.S. Census Bureau
41 Utah has the Fastest Employment Growth Percent Change in Employment for States: May 2017 to May 2018 U.S. Rate = 1.7% UT Rate = 3.4% NH 1.9% MA 1.6% 2.0% + 1.6% to 1.9% 1.0% to 1.5% HI 1.7% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
42 Utah Total Employment at New Highs 1,600 1,500 Gain of 339,700 jobs from low in 2010 Thousands of Employees 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, Loss of 92,000 jobs from Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand Total Nonfarm Employment
43 Utah Industries Seeing Growth Percent Change in Utah Employment by Industry: May 2017 to May 2018 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government -3.5% Total: 3.5% 0.3% 0.5% 1.6% 2.9% 3.1% 4.5% 4.4% 3.6% 4.0% 7.6% -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
44 Utah Industries Seeing Growth Total Change in Utah Employment by Industry: May 2017 to May 2018 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction ,400 Manufacturing 3,700 Trade, Trans., Utilities 12,400 Information Financial Activity 100 2,600 Total: 51,900 Prof. & Bus. Serv. 9,100 Ed. & Health Serv. 7,000 Leisure & Hospitality Other Services 200 5,700 Government 4,000-3,000-1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,00013,00015,000 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
45 Changes and Differences Between US and Utah Economies Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of BEA National and Product Account Data
46 Changes in Utah s Tax base Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Utah office of Legislative Research and General counsel data
47 Utah Employment Change Rates By County May 2017 to May 2018 State Rate = 3.4% 5.0% + 3.3% to 4.9% 1.0% to 3.2% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
48 Utah Has the 11 th Lowest Unemployment Rate May 2018 U.S. Rate = 3.8%; UT = 3.0% VT 3.4% NH 4.4% MA 3.8% CT NJ 3.9% 2.7% RI 3.5% MD 2.6% DC 5.7% 6.0% + 5.5% to 5.9% 4.8% to 5.4% 4.0% to 4.7% 3.9% or less Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
49 Utah Unemployment Rates By County April 2018 State Rate = 3.1% 7.0% + 6.0% to 6.9% 4.0% to 5.9% 3.2% to 3.9% 3.1% or lower Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
50 Utah Personal Income Growth 3 rd Highest in the Nation Percent Change in Personal Income : U.S. = 3.1%, UT = 4.4% ID = 4.7% VT 3.4% NH 4.4% MA 3.8% CT NJ 3.9% 2.7% RI 3.5% MD 2.6% DE 2.5% DC 5.7% 4.0% or more 3.6% to 3.9% 2.0% to 3.5% 0.0% to 1.9% Decrease Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
51 Utah Poverty Rate 7 th Lowest in the Nation CA 14.3% WA 11.3% OR 13.3% NV 13.8% AK 9.9% ID 14.4% UT 10.1% AZ 16.3% 2016 U.S. Rate = 14.0%, Utah Rate = 10.1% MT 13.3% WY 11.3% HI 9.3% CO 11.0% NM 19.8% ND 10.6% SD 13.3% NE 11.4% KS 12.1% TX 15.6% OK 16.3% MN 9.9% IA 11.8% MO 14.0% AR 17.1% WI 11.8% LA 20.1% IL 13.0% MS 20.8% 18.1% + MI 15.0% IN 14.1% TN 15.8% AL 17.1% 15.1% to 18.0% 12.1% to 15.0% 10.1% to 12.0% 10.0% or less OH 14.6% KY 18.5% WV 17.8% VT 11.9% PA 12.9% VA 11.0% NC 15.4% SC 15.3% GA 16.0% FL 14.6% NH 7.2% NY 14.6% ME 12.5% DC 18.6% CT 9.8% DE 11.6% MD 9.6% MA 10.4% RI 12.8% NJ 10.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Community Survey 1-year estimate
52 Strong Consumer Sentiment Jul-12 Above 110 indicates economic prosperity Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: Zions Bank Utah Consumer Attitude Index: Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Sources: Conference Board and Cicero Group
53 Year-over-year percent change 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% Utah Inflation Hits Highest-Level Recorded Jul-2011 Oct-2011 Jan-2012 Apr-2012 Jul-2012 Oct-2012 Jan-2013 Apr-2013 Jul-2013 Oct-2013 Jan-2014 Apr-2014 Jul-2014 Oct-2014 Jan-2015 Apr-2015 Jul-2015 Oct-2015 Jan-2016 Apr-2016 Jul-2016 Oct-2016 Jan-2017 Apr-2017 Jul-2017 Utah 5.0% US 2.8% Oct-2017 Jan-2018 Apr-2018 United States CPI: +2.8% Zions Bank Wasatch Front CPI: +5.0% Source: U.S. CPI from National Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wasatch Front CPI from Cicero Group
54 $275,000 $255,000 $235,000 $215,000 $195,000 $175,000 $155,000 $135,000 $115,000 $95, Utah home values continue to rise Utah Dec $262, U.S. Dec $206, United States Utah Source: Zillow Research
55 Household Creation Surpasses Housing Units Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Population Projections and Ivory Boyer Construction Database
56 Home Prices Increasing Faster Than Wages Source: Wall Street Journal
57 Source: Wall Street Journal Multigenerational Households on the Rise
58 Utah Economic Indicators f Population Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate Personal Income Home Prices Retail Sales e 2018f 2019f Sources: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group, Moody s Economy.com, IHS Global Insights e = estimate f = forecast
59 Economic Overview Negatives Potential trade wars Potential of overheating economy National and international uncertainty Trumponomics success? Unsure inflation outlook Skills mismatch Low productivity growth Positives Strong consumer and business confidence Trumponomics pro growth agenda The Western US has: Strong population growth Strong employment growth Low unemployment Strong income growth
60 Zions Bank, A Division of ZB, N.A. Member FDIC. Content is offered for informational purposes only and should not be construed as tax, legal, financial or business advice. Please contact a professional about your specific needs and advice. Content may contain trademarks or trade names owned by parties who are not affiliated with ZB, N.A. Use of such marks does not imply any sponsorship by or affiliation with third parties, and ZB, N.A. does not claim any ownership of or make representations about products and services offered under or associated with such marks. Robert Spendlove Economic and Public Policy Officer Robert.Spendlove@zionsbank.com Phone:
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