Charting a Path to Lift Off? Understanding the Shifting Economic Winds
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1 Charting a Path to Lift Off? Understanding the Shifting Economic Winds Thomas F. Siems, Ph.D. Assistant Vice President and Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Government Finance Officers Arlington, Texas November 13, 215 The views expressed are those of the speaker and should not necessarily be attributed to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System. 1
2 Charting a Path to Lift Off? Checking the Economic Gauges Prices, Labor and Growth Is the Regional Economy Faltering? Forward Guidance: Charting a Path? Headwinds or Tailwinds? Conclusions 2
3 Charting a Path to Lift Off? Checking the Economic Gauges Prices, Labor and Growth Is the Regional Economy Faltering? Forward Guidance: Charting a Path? Headwinds or Tailwinds? Conclusions 3
4 Unemployment rate Junk-bond 1 spread U.S. Economic Dashboard Year-over-year Real GDP growth Percent of jobs recovered Nonfarm payroll employment (millions) Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Warning Warning Engine Unemp. Yield Oil stall jump curve shock Engine Unemp. Yield Oil stall jump curve shock
5 Unemployment rate U.S. Economic Dashboard Junk-bond 1 spread Year-over-year Real Real GDP growth Percent of jobs recovered Nonfarm 1 payroll employment (millions) Headline 5 Trimmed Mean PCE PCE Inflation Warning Warning Engine Unemp. Yield Oil Oil stall stall jump curve shock Engine Unemp. Yield Oil stall jump curve shock 5
6 Charting a Path to Lift Off? Checking the Economic Gauges Prices, Labor and Growth Is the Regional Economy Faltering? Forward Guidance: Charting a Path? Headwinds or Tailwinds? Conclusions 6
7 Inflation is Low and Stable 16 1 Inflation Rate (Percent) Headline Inflation Headline Inflation Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, FIRM - Financial Institution Relationship Management
8 Inflation is Low and Stable 16 1 Inflation Rate (Percent) Headline Inflation Core Inflation Avg Inflation: 2.% Avg Inflation: 5.3% Avg Inflation: 2.% Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, FIRM - Financial Institution Relationship Management
9 Inflation is Low and Stable 16 1 Inflation Rate (Percent) Headline Inflation Core Inflation Trimmed Mean Avg Inflation: 2.% Avg Inflation: 5.3% Avg Inflation: 2.% Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, FIRM - Financial Institution Relationship Management
10 Unemployment Continues to Fall 12 Unemployment Rate % Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, FIRM - Financial Institution Relationship Management
11 Unemployment Continues to Fall 12 Unemployment Rate % Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, FIRM - Financial Institution Relationship Management
12 Unemployment Continues to Fall 12 Unemployment Rate % 5.% 2 CBO Natural Rate of Unemployment Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, FIRM - Financial Institution Relationship Management
13 But Headline Unemployment Is Not the Full Story Rate U3 = Headline Unemployment Rate U = U3 + Discouraged Workers U5 = U + Marginally Attached Workers U6 = U5 + Involuntary Part-Time Workers Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, FIRM - Financial Institution Relationship Management
14 But Headline Unemployment Is Not the Full Story 8 Rate There are More Discouraged Workers, Marginally Attached Workers and Involuntary Part-Time Workers Now Than Before the Great Recession 7 6 U6 minus U Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, FIRM - Financial Institution Relationship Management
15 Job Growth is Steady 6 Monthly Change in Payroll Employment 2 26K Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, FIRM - Financial Institution Relationship Management
16 But Econ Growth Lower Than in Past GDP Year Over Year, Percent Change
17 But Growth Is Lower Than Historically GDP Year Over Year, Percent Change -Quarter Percent Change
18 Charting a Path to Lift Off? Checking the Economic Gauges Prices, Labor and Growth Is the Regional Economy Faltering? Forward Guidance: Charting a Path? Headwinds or Tailwinds? Conclusions 18
19 Our Region Generally Outperformed Until Now 5 TX and US Employment Growth, Year over Year, Percent 215 (Thru Sep) TX (1.28%) US (1.7%) YTD
20 Employment By Fed District Since Job Growth Index, 1 = January 199 Dallas Kansas City San Francisco Atlanta Minneapolis U.S. Richmond St. Louis Chicago Philadelphia Cleveland Boston New York
21 Confidence Is Rising 16 1 Consumer Confidence, 6 Month Moving Average 1985 = Oct 215=
22 U.S. Census Bureau Regions 22
23 U.S. Consumer Confidence 12 Consumer Confidence Index, 1985 = United States Shaded Area = Range of Nine Census Regions
24 Confidence Stronger in the West South Central The West South Central Region of the U.S. has been More Optimistic 12 Consumer Confidence Index, 1985 = West South Central Census Region United States Shaded Area = Range of Nine Census Regions
25 Job Growth Stronger in the West South Central Job Growth Increased Most in the West South Central Region Payroll Employment (Sum of States Data) Indexed to December 27 = 1 West South Central 15 Pacific United States West North Central New England Middle Atlantic South Atlantic Mountain East South Central East North Central Source: The Bureau of Labor Statistics; Haver Analytics
26 Charting a Path to Lift Off? Checking the Economic Gauges Prices, Labor and Growth Is the Regional Economy Faltering? Forward Guidance: Charting a Path? Headwinds or Tailwinds? Conclusions 26
27 The Fed s Forward Guidance 1 Rate FOMC Economic Projections Inflation Rate Longer Run -2 27
28 The Fed s Forward Guidance 1 Rate FOMC Economic Projections Inflation Rate Longer Run -2 28
29 The Fed s Forward Guidance 1 Rate FOMC Economic Projections 8 Unemployment Rate 6 2 Inflation Rate Longer Run -2 29
30 The Fed s Forward Guidance 1 Rate FOMC Economic Projections 8 Unemployment Rate 6 2 Inflation Rate Longer Run -2 3
31 The Fed s Forward Guidance 5 Annualized GDP FOMC Economic Growth Projections Long Run
32 The Fed s Forward Guidance 5 Annualized GDP FOMC Economic Growth Projections Long Run
33 The Fed s Forward Guidance 1 Number of FOMC Participants FOMC Assessment of Appropriate Timing of Policy Firming Sep
34 The Fed s Forward Guidance 5 FOMC Assessment of Appropriate Pace of Policy Firming Average.% Longer Run
35 The Fed s Forward Guidance 5 FOMC Assessment of Appropriate Pace of Policy Firming Average.% Average 1.8% Longer Run
36 The Fed s Forward Guidance 5 FOMC Assessment of Appropriate Pace of Policy Firming Average.% Average 1.8% Average 2.6% Longer Run
37 The Fed s Forward Guidance 5 FOMC Assessment of Appropriate Pace of Policy Firming Average.% Average 1.8% Average 2.6% Average 3.3% Longer Run
38 The Fed s Forward Guidance 5 FOMC Assessment of Appropriate Pace of Policy Firming Average.% Average 1.8% Average 2.6% Average 3.3% Longer Run Average 3.6%
39 The Fed s Forward Guidance Blue = Sep 21 Red = Sep 215 Average 1.27% Average.% FOMC Assessment of Appropriate Pace of Policy Firming Average 1.8% Average 2.6% Average 3.3% Longer Run Average 3.6%
40 The Fed s Forward Guidance Blue = Sep 21 Red = Sep 215 Average 1.27% Average.% FOMC Assessment of Appropriate Pace of Policy Firming Average 2.68% Average 1.8% Average 2.6% Average 3.3% Longer Run Average 3.6%
41 The Fed s Forward Guidance Blue = Sep 21 Red = Sep 215 Average 1.27% Average.% FOMC Assessment of Appropriate Pace of Policy Firming Average 2.68% Average 1.8% Average 2.6% Average 3.3% Longer Run Average 3.79% Average 3.6%
42 Charting a Path to Lift Off? Checking the Economic Gauges Prices, Labor and Growth Is the Regional Economy Faltering? Forward Guidance: Charting a Path? Headwinds or Tailwinds? Conclusions 2
43 Headwinds or Tailwinds? Household Debt! Household Debt-to-Income Ratio Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, FIRM (Financial Institution Relationship Management)
44 Headwinds or Tailwinds? Long Run View of Household Debt Household Debt-to-Income Ratio Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, FIRM (Financial Institution Relationship Management)
45 Is Confidence Rising? NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, 3-month moving Small Business Owners Getting More Optimistic?
46 Is Confidence Rising? Percent Responding What Keeps Small Business Owners Up at Night?
47 Is Confidence Rising? Percent Responding What Keeps Small Business Owners Up at Night?
48 Is Confidence Rising? Percent Responding What Keeps Small Business Owners Up at Night?
49 Is Confidence Rising? Percent Responding What Keeps Small Business Owners Up at Night?
50 Is Confidence Rising? Percent Responding What Keeps Small Business Owners Up at Night?
51 Is Confidence Rising? % 35% Percent of Net Jobs Created Job Creation Has Slowed for Small Businesses 3% Pre-Recession ( ) 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % 51 Under 5 Emp 5 to 29 Emp 25 to 999 Emp Over 1 Emp
52 Is Confidence Rising? % 35% Percent of Net Jobs Created Job Creation Has Slowed for Small Businesses 3% 25% Pre-Recession ( ) Post-Recession (21-21) 2% 15% 1% 5% % 52 Under 5 Emp 5 to 29 Emp 25 to 999 Emp Over 1 Emp
53 The National Debt Continues to Grow 26% Percentage of GDP Can Government Close the Gap? 2% Federal Government Expenditures 22% 2% 18% 16% Federal Government Receipts 1% 53 '52 '56 '6 '6 '68 '72 '76 '8 '8 '88 '92 '96 ' ' '8 '12
54 Headwinds or Tailwinds? Headwinds Regulatory Burdens Declining Oil Exploration Declining Exports Rest of World (ROW) Slower GDP Growth Permanently Unemployed High Federal Debt Large Federal Reserve Balance Sheet 5
55 Headwinds or Tailwinds? Headwinds Regulatory Burdens Declining Oil Exploration Declining Exports Rest of World (ROW) Slower GDP Growth Permanently Unemployed High Federal Debt Large Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Tailwinds Low/Stable Inflation Rising Household Wealth Strong Biz Balance Sheets Healthy Banking System Solid Employment Growth Low Interest Rates Low Gasoline/Energy Prices Confidence Rising 55
56 Charting a Path to Lift Off? Checking the Economic Gauges Prices, Labor and Growth Is the Regional Economy Faltering? Forward Guidance: Charting a Path? Headwinds or Tailwinds? Conclusions 56
57 Conclusions Growth: Weak Q1, Better Q2/Q3 prospects good for 215 Inflation: low and stable; expectations anchored; move closer to 2% target Employment: Lower US unemployment rate likely; job growth in the 11 th FR District lower than nation in 215 Some Necessary Conditions for Lift Off (Chair Yellen, 3/15): Continued improvement in labor markets No weakening in wage inflation No further weakening in core inflation, survey measures of inflation expectations, market measures of inflation compensation 57
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