Larry Kessler, Ph.D. Boyd Center for Business & Economic Research University of Tennessee

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1 Larry Kessler, Ph.D. Boyd Center for Business & Economic Research University of Tennessee

2 The U.S. economy has now enjoyed 7 years of economic growth since the Great Recession Real GDP grew by 1.2% in 2017Q1 2.6% growth in 2017Q2 Nonfarm employment increased by 2.2 million jobs in Unemployment rate fell to 4.4% in June

3 Revenue growth has been outstanding Revenue estimates have been very conservative Reserves and balances are in very good shape, though TN could not sustain a significant recession without significant cuts

4 Percentage Change, Previous Quarter SAAR :1 2001:1 2002:1 2003:1 2004:1 2005:1 2006:1 2007:1 2008:1 2009:1 2010:1 2011:1 2012:1 2013:1 2014:1 2015:1 2016:1 2017:1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

5 Percentage change % % Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Global Insights

6 18, , Level, billions of chained 2009 $ 16,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 Real GDP Percentage change 9, , Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Global Insights

7 Percentage change % % Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

8 Millions of units Source: IHS Global Insights

9 B B Imports (millions of barrels) B B U.S. Imports of Crude Oil U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil Source: US Energy Information Administration

10 $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 Dollars per gallon $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 July-07 July-08 July-09 July-10 July-11 July-12 July-13 July-14 July-15 July-16 July-17 Source: US Energy Information Administration

11 14.0 Student Other Mortgage 2008Q3 $9.3T 2017Q1 $8.6T Trillions of dollars Q4 $5.7T Source: New York Fed

12 Student Other Mortgage 2017Q1 2.8T Trillions of dollars Q4 2.2T Source: New York Fed

13 Trillions of dollars Student Other Mortgage 2003Q4 $253B 2017Q1 $1.3T Source: New York Fed

14 Units of Existing Homes (millions) Housing Starts (millions) Exist. House Sales Housing Starts Source: IHS Global Insights

15 Percentage change, same month last year TN Jun % U.S. Jun % -8 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 TN U.S. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

16 k new jobs per month Employment (thousands) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

17 Employment (thousands) 3,100 3,000 2,900 2,800 2,700 2,600 2,500 2,400 Feb-08 2,809.5 Sept-09 2,593.5 Jun-17 3, ,300 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

18 Mining, Logging, Construction 6.4% Leisure and Hospitality Professional and Business Services Financial Activities Government Trade, Transportation, Utilities Education and Health Services Manufacturing 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.2% 1.6% 1.2% 0.8% Information -0.4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

19 Trade, Transportation, Utilities Government Education and Health Services Professional and Business Services Manufacturing Leisure and Hospitality Financial Activities Mining, Logging, Construction Information ,000 Employment (in thousands) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

20 12.0 TN Jun % 10.0 Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Oct % U.S. Jun % TN Jun % 0.0 June-05 June-06 June-07 June-08 June-09 June-10 June-11 June-12 June-13 June-14 June-15 June-16 June-17 TN U.S. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

21 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

22 U.S 62.8% Participation Rate TN 60.2% TN U.S. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

23 Per Capita Personal Income ($) $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 SE Avg. $44,203 TN $44,351 U.S. Avg. $50,337 $0 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

24 25.0 Percentage ever told had health issue by a doctor (%) TN U.S. 0.0 Heart attack Coronary heart disease Stroke Diabetes Skin cancer Other types of cancer Kidney disease Depression Source: Center for Disease Control & Prevention, BRFSS

25 Percentage of population aged 25 years and older High school graduates or higher TN 86.7 U.S Percentage of population aged 25 years and older Bachelor s degree or higher Source: U.S. Census Bureau

26 Unemployment Rate (%) Median Weekly Earnings ($) Less than a high school diploma 7.4 Less than a high school diploma $504 High school diploma 5.2 High school diploma $692 Some college, no degree 4.4 Some college, no degree $756 Associate's degree 3.6 Associate's degree $819 Bachelor's degree 2.7 Bachelor's degree $1,156 Master's degree 2.4 Master's degree $1,380 Professional degree 1.6 Professional degree $1,745 Doctoral degree 1.6 Doctoral degree $1, $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

27 Effort initiated in 2013 to have 55 percent of working-age Tennesseans hold a higher education credential by How much in additional earnings would Tennessee see if this goal were met? How much would Tennessee tax revenues grow by?

28 As of 2015, there s an estimated 1.34 million degree/certificate holders aged Representing 38.7% of the working-age population. An estimated 1.98 million degree holders are needed to reach the 55% mark in ,000 new degree/certificate holders in the next 10 years.

29 900, , ,471 Degree/Certificate Holders in TN 700, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,471 - Certificates Associate's degree Bachelor's degree Graduate or professional degree Source: U.S. Census Bureau

30 Level of Educational Attainment Median Earnings (in 2015 $) Less than high school graduate $19,035 High school graduate (includes equivalency) $26,365 Some college or associate's degree $32,306 Bachelor's degree $45,225 Graduate or professional degree $57,314 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

31 Type of Postsecondary Attainment Additional Workers in TN in 2025 Additional Earnings Per Worker Total Additional Earnings Total Additional Fringe Benefits Total Additional Income Associate s/ Certificate 266,446 $5,941 $1.6B $0.356B $1.9B Bachelor's 172,021 $18,860 $3.2B $0.729B $4.0B Graduate or Professional 90,163 $30,949 $2,8B $0.627B $3.4B Total 528,630 $7.6B $1.7B $9.3B

32 An estimated 528,630 additional certificate or degree holders will work in Tennessee upon achievement of Drive to 55. These workers are projected to earn $9.3 billion annually more in income than that would have been generated without a postsecondary credential. State and local tax revenue in TN would increase by estimated $746.4 million.

33 Thank You!

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