Briefing on the State of the State. presented to the. SCAA Schuyler Center for Analysis and Advocacy

Transcription

1 Briefing on the State of the State presented to the SCAA Schuyler Center for Analysis and Advocacy Rae D. Rosen Assistant Vice President Federal Reserve Bank of New York November 16, 2006

2 Key Points: Economic activity is expanding at a robust pace in New York City. Growth is slower in the New York suburbs, and slower still in upstate and western region. The budget surpluses have been used in a fiscally responsive manner in New York City. For fiscal 2006 which ended this June, The estimated $1.4 billion 2006 surplus in New York City had a record $6.1 billion dollar surplus. NYC closed the 2007 fiscal budget gap, paid-down future liabilities, establish significant reserves for disallowances related to federal programs and allocated money for a pay-as-you-go capital fund. With the third quarter results nearly complete for the securities industry, analysts estimate that the industry has already booked 75 percent of the profits earned in Profits in 2006 are expected to easily exceed the record $21.5 billion earned in The economic outlook for NYC remains positive reflecting the strength of its dominant industry and the payout period which is concentrated in the first few months of The prospects for upstate and western New York are more subdued. Trends in legal immigration could dim this outlook, particularly in NYC, which relies on immigration to replace domestic out-migration. However, the housing market has provided evidence that successfully challenged the US Census estimates for NYC. Populations flows are largely negative for upstate and western New York. 2

3 Indexes of Coincident Economic Indicators Index July 1992= New York 155 July % / Index July 1992= New York City 155 July % / Index July 1992= New Jersey 155 July % / Note: Shading denotes state or local recession. Source: FRBNY

4 Expansion Patterns Increase from CEI Trough to Peak for the First 36 months Index 120 New York State Index 120 New York City Dec Apr Nov Oct Oct Apr Oct Apr Jun Feb.1980 Nov Oct Aug Aug Oct Dec Sep Jan June 2003 July 2006 Aug July 2006 Nov Dec Feb Mar Number of Months Number of Months 4 Source: FRBNY.

5 Percent 6 Private-Sector Job Growth: U.S. and Region Percent change from 12 months earlier Percent 6 4 US Hudson Valley New York City Aug '06 = 2.0% New York Aug '06 = 1.1% Hudson Valley Aug '06 = 1.1% NYS NYC Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations. 5

6 Second District Unemployment Rates Sep-06 United States 6.0% 5.1% 4.6% New York 6.4% 5.0% 4.2% New York City 8.3% 5.8% 4.5% 6 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

7 Growth in Service Jobs % change August 2006 / August 2005 U.S. NJ NYC Professional & Business Security/Commodity Broker Leisure and Hospitality Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Accomodation And Food Eating and Drinking Accommodations Health and Social Educational All Services Services as % of Total Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY Calculations. 7

8 Source: NYS and NJ Dept. of Labor; Calculations Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Private Sector Job Growth 2003Q1 to 2005Q1 Job Gains Job Losses New Jersey Net Job Growth New York City Net Job Growth Avg. Salary (0.8%) Avg. Salary (1.2%) Mgt. of Companies $128, Financial Services - - $196, Prof., Tech. amd Scientific $70, $93,000 10,500 Construction $48, Average Wage XFinancial $46,000 $54,700 Education $37, $41, Retail Trade - - $30, Admin. Support $33, $41, Health, Soc. Srvcs. $39, $39,500 15,900 Unclassfied $34, $31, Arts, Entertainment $27, $51, Accomodations $18, $24,500 10,100 Finance $112, Utilities $93, $88, Information $76, $107, Whsl. Trade $66, $65, Mfg. $63, $49, Trans., Warehousing $41, $41, Retail Trade $27, Mgt. of Companies - - $208,

9 Wages and Salaries Percent change from 4 quarters earlier Percent United States 2006 Q1 4.2% New York 2006 Q1 3.5% Percent NYS 8 6 US Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations. 9

10 Personal Income Tax Revenue Collections Year to Date 6000 Mil $ New York City Mil $ New York State July 2006 YTD 13.6% 5000 July 2006 YTD 11.5% 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D 10 Source: New York City Department of Finance, Office of the New York State Comptroller.

11 Percent Home Prices Percent change from 4 quarters earlier United States 2006 Q2 10.1% New York 2006 Q2 9.9% NYS US Percent Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. 11

12 Percent of Residential Mortgage Loans with Installments 90 Days Past Due Percent United States 2006 Q2 0.91% New York 2006 Q2 0.66% US NYS Percent Q2 94Q2 96Q2 98Q2 00Q2 02Q2 04Q2 06Q2 12 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association.

13 Percent of Residential Mortgage Loans in Foreclosure Started During the Quarter Percent United States 2006 Q2 0.43% New York 2006 Q2 0.34% 0.6 Percent US NYS Q1 93Q4 95Q3 97Q2 99Q1 00Q4 02Q3 04Q2 06Q Source: Mortgage Bankers Association.

14 Returns 400,000 New York City Migration Returns 400, , , ,000 New York City Out 350, , ,000 New York City Out 325, , , , ,000 New York City In New York City In 275, , , , , Source: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income. 14

15 Returns 380, , , , , , , , , , ,000 New York Migration New York In New York Out Returns 380, , , , , , , , , , , , , Source: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income. 15

16 Net Domestic and International Migration April 2000 to July 2005 Net Domestic Net International Migration Migration Connecticut -34,273 75,991 New York -1,001, ,007 New York City -808, ,018 New Jersey -194, ,194 Westchester -47,704 37, Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census.

17 Appendix 17

18 160 Net International Immigration 000 s 000 s NY (Scale Left) NYC (Scale Left) NJ (Scale Left) US (Scale Right) Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. 18

19 Consumer Price Index Percent change from 12 months earlier Percent 6 United States Aug '06 3.8% New York-Northern NJ Aug '06 4.7% Percent 6 5 New York-Northern NJ United States Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations.

20 New Privately Owned Housing Units Authorized Top 20 CSA s/cbsa s: 2005 Atlanta CBSA New York CBSA Phoenix CBSA Houston CBSA Dallas CBSA Chicago CBSA Riverside CBSA Miami CBSA Las Vegas CBSA Orlando CBSA Washington DC CBSA Tampa CBSA Los Angeles CBSA Cape Coral CBSA Seattle CBSA Jacksonville CBSA Austin CBSA San Antonio CBSA Minneapolis CBSA Charlotte CBSA Source: U.S. Bureau of Census.

21 Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits 1990 = = NYC Hudson Valley US NYS Note: Data for 2006 is seven months YTD annualized. Source: Bureau of Census, FRBNY calculations. 21