CURRENT DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION IN LATVIA

Transcription

1 CURRENT DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION IN LATVIA Peteris Zvidrins University of Latvia Workshop Very old people s housing and housing and health situation in Latvia 21 May, 2013

2 Population and its change in 10 countries around Baltic Sea: (in thousands on 1 January) Changes, in % Russian Federation ,4 North - West Federal district ,2 Leningrad oblast ,4 Saint Petersburg Kaliningrad oblast ,2 Germany ,4 Lower-Saxony ,3 Bremen ,2 Hamburg ,5 Schleswing-Holstein ,1 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ,4 Poland ,2 West Pomeranian ,2 Szczecin ,2 Pomeranian ,6 Gdansk ,2 Varmian -Masurian ,1 Sweden ,4 Denmark ,8 Finland ,5 Norway ,3 Lithuania * -13,3* Latvia * -13,1* Estonia * -2,3* Source: * Census 2011 data included. Eurostat population database. 2011; Federal State Statistics Service of Russian Federation; Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (web) Statistical yearbook of the Republic of Poland 2010; Key figures on Europe, 2011 edition (Luxembourg 2011, p.37)

3 Norway Sweden Structure of population change, , (% of the number on beginning of 2000) Denmark Finland Poland Germany Estonia Russia Latvia Lithuania 15,0 10,0 Migration Natural change 5,0 0,0-5,0-10,0-15,0 Source: EUROSTAT database

4 Human Development Index and its components in 2013 Rank among 187 countries HDI value 2012 Life expectancy at birth 2012 Years of schooling 2010 Expected years of schooling Gross National income per capita (constant 2005 PPP$) 1. Norway , Germany , Sweden , Denmark , Finland , Estonia , Poland , Lithuania , Latvia , Russia ,461 Source: Human Development Report 2013; p (

5 Total fertility rate, 2000 and 2010 Sweden 1,54 1,98 Norway 1,85 1,95 Finland 1,73 1,87 Denmark 1,77 1,87 Estonia 1,38 1,63 Russia 1,19 1,59 Lithuania 1,39 1,55 Germany 1,39 1,38 Poland Latvia 1,38 1,35 1,17 1, Source: EUROSTAT database 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5

6 85 80 Life expectancy of females at birth in the Baltic Sea region countries, (in years) Sweden Finland Norway Germany Denmark Estonia Poland Lithuania Latvia Russia Source: EUROSTAT database; Demographic Yearbook of Russia,2010,p.101.

7 Life expectancy of males at birth in the Baltic Sea region countries, (in years) Sweden Norway Germany Denmark Finland Poland Estonia Latvia Lithuania Russia Source: EUROSTAT database; Demographic Yearbook of Russia,2010,p.101.

8 Sweden Malta Norway Italy Greece Ireland United Kingdom Cyprus Luxembourg Spain Belgium Bulgaria Denmark Czech Republic France Netherlands Austria Portugal Poland Finland Germany Lithuania Romania Hungary Estonia Latvia Slovenia Slovakia Russia Source: EUROSTAT database for Russia calculations of the author Healthy life years at birth, ,0 71,6 69,7 67,3 67,6 66,9 65,7 64,9 66,0 63,7 62,7 67,2 61,9 64,6 63,5 60,2 60,7 56,6 62,2 57,8 58,6 62,3 57,4 58,6 58,1 56,5 54,5 52,1 47,4 Men Women 71,7 70,2 69,6 67,3 66,4 65,9 65,1 65,1 64,5 64,3 64,1 63,0 62,3 62,2 61,9 61,1 59,3 59,2 58,5 58,5 57,9 57,7 57,4 56,4 54,0 53,5 53,2 52,3 52,4 80,0 60,0 40,0 20,0 0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0

9 Population by age class, 2012 (% of total population) Germany Germany Sweden Latvia Latvia Lithuania Lithuania Poland Finland Russia Denmark Estonia Estonia Finland Norway Sweden Poland Denmark Russia Norway Source: EUROSTAT database

10 Age distribution: Population of Latvia 2011 (Census data; in thousands) MALES ,2 1,2 FEMALES ,1 4,8 4,8 21,1 14, ,3 23,6 53,2 38, ,0 40,3 64,9 50, ,4 58,5 74,2 70, ,2 70,4 77,6 68, ,7 70,6 71,9 67, ,8 75,5 72,5 79, ,8 61,5 58,9 46, ,7 49,7 47,3 54, ,

11 Age distribution: Population of Latvia in 2000 and 2011 (Census data; in thousands) Total: 2 377,4 thousand Total: 2 070,4 thousand

12 Population and its change in Latvia: (in thousands) 2000 (Census) 2011 (Census) Difference, % All population 2377,4 2070,4-12,9% Aged population: ,1 380,5 8,1% ,6 275,3 18,9% ,0 166,0 31,8% ,7 89,3 49,6%

13 Government views and policies in 2011 Country Population size and growth View on growth Policy on growth Life Fertility Immigration Emigration expectancy Ageing View Policy View View Policy View Policy View Denmark Satisfactory No interv. Too low Raise Acceptable Too high Lower Satisfactory No interv. Major concern Finland Satisfactory No interv. Satisfactory Maintain Acceptable Satisfactory Raise Satisfactory No interv. Major concern Norway Satisfactory No interv. Satisfactory Maintain Acceptable Satisfactory Maintain Satisfactory No interv. Major concern Sweden Satisfactory No interv. Satisfactory Raise Acceptable Too low Raise Satisfactory No interv. Major concern Germany Too low Raise Too low Raise Acceptable Satisfactory Maintain Satisfactory No interv. Major concern Poland Too low Raise Too low Raise Acceptable Satisfactory Raise Too high No interv. Major concern Estonia Too low Raise Too low Raise Unacceptable Satisfactory Maintain Satisfactory No interv. Major concern Latvia Too low Raise Too low Raise Unacceptable Satisfactory Maintain Too high No interv. Major concern Lithuania Too low Raise Too low Raise Unacceptable Satisfactory Maintain Satisfactory No interv. Major concern Russia Too low Raise Too low Raise Unacceptable Too low Raise Too high No interv. Major concern Source: World Population Policies 2011, UN, NY, 2013 (

14 Country ranking by ageing in the world, 2010 (rank by 3 indicators: 60+ (%), median age, ageing index) Country 60+ (%) Median age Ageing index Sum of ranks Rank by 3 indicators Japan Germany Italy Bulgaria Greece Austria Finland Sweden Portugal Slovenia Croatia Switzerland Latvia Belgium Spain France China, Hong Kong SAR Denmark Hungary Estonia United Kingdom Czech Republic Netherlands Malta Lithuania Ukraine Canada Norway Romania Bosnia and Herzegovina Poland Luxembourg Belarus Serbia Russian Federation Georgia Australia Cuba United States of America Slovakia Source: calculations based on: World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. ( ; 3 territories are not included in top 40: Channel Islands, Martinique, United States Virgin Islands