U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18
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1 U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 1 U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 July 2018
2 Key Messages Sales remain resilient backed by robust economic growth Automakers continue to benefit from consumers favoring light-trucks over cars Higher interest rates and gasoline prices may impact demand through the remaining of the year International trade disputes have the potential to disrupt supply chains and affect consumers through higher prices Going forward, companies are expected to continue investing in advanced driver-assistance systems, and vehicle electrification
3 01 Sales U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 3
4 U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 4 Sales U.S. Total light weight vehicle sales (SAAR, million units) Total Domestic Imported
5 U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 5 Sales U.S. Total vehicle sales (SAAR, million units) Cars Light trucks Medium and heavy trucks (right axis)
6 U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 6 Sales U.S. Total vehicle sales (Share of total) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Trucks Cars
7 U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 7 Sales U.S. Domestic auto inventory/sales ratio (Seasonally adjusted)
8 Volvo Mitsubishi Audi VolksWagen Subaru Porsche Land Rover Toyota BMW Tesla Honda GM Ford Mercedes- Benz Mazda Jaguar Nissan Fiat Chrysler Kia Hyundai U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 8 Sales U.S. Sales growth by brand (1Q18, yoy % 4Q-moving average) Source: BBVA Research and Bloomberg
9 U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 9 Prices U.S. Consumer price index: cars and trucks (yoy % change) 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% New Used
10 U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 10 Prices U.S. Auto Prices ,000 35,000 30, , Manheim used vehicles value index Edmunds Vehicle True Market Value (right axis) Source: BBVA Research, Haver Analytics and Bloomberg
11 U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 11 Financial conditions U.S. Interest rates (yoy % change) month new car loan 36-month used car loan 60-month new car
12 U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 12 Financial conditions U.S. Newly originated installment auto loans ($ billion, eop, 4-qtr moving avg.)
13 U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 13 Financial conditions U.S. Auto loan 90+ days delinquent (% of balance)
14 U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 14 Leasing U.S. Leasing penetration rate (%) Source: BBVA Research and Bloomberg
15 U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 15 Gasoline U.S. Spot price (cents per gallon)
16 02 Consumers U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 16
17 U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 17 Consumers U.S. Consumer sentiment index Current economic conditions Consumer expectations
18 U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 18 Consumers U.S. Plans to buy a car within 6 months (% of respondents)
19 U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 19 Consumers U.S. Nonfarm payroll growth and unemployment rate (yoy % change and %) 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% Nonfarm payroll Unemployment rate (%, right axis)
20 U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 20 Consumers U.S. Household equity and home prices % 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Owners equity in real estate (NSA billion $, left axis) FHFA house price index (yoy change, right axis)
21 03 Production U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 21
22 U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 22 Production U.S. Auto production Industrial production index: autos (2007=100, left axis) BEA Auto Production Estimate (SAAR, million units, right axis)
23 04 Structural U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 23
24 Miles per capita Million miles U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 24 Fundamentals Mean age of passenger cars in operation (years) Vehicle miles of travel (total and adjusted by labor force) : Population adjusted (left axis) Total (right axis)
25 U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 25 Demographics U.S. Population projections by age (millions) years 65 years and over
26 mar-15 may-15 jul-15 sep-15 nov-15 ene-16 mar-16 may-16 jul-16 sep-16 nov-16 ene-17 mar-17 may-17 jul-17 sep-17 nov-17 ene-18 mar-18 U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 26 Electric vehicles U.S. Electric vehicle sales (units) Hybrids Plug-in Hybrid (right axis) Battery Electric Vehicle (right axis)
27 05 Forecasts U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 27
28 U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 28 Forecast Auto sales (millions units) Real GDP growth (% change) Unemployment rate (% avg.) Fed funds (%, eop) 5-year Treasuries (%, avg) Source: BBVA Research
29 U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 / 29 U.S. Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18 July 2018
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