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1 ABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee Commercial Real Estate Outlook The Good, the Bad and the Ugly January 16, 2019 Rob Strand Senior Economist American Bankers Association aba.com BANKERS
2 The Good
3 Inflation-Adjusted GDP Growth 3% Bank Economists Forecast 2% 1% 0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
4 Business and Consumer Optimism Recession Small Business Optimism Index Index of Consumer Sentiment Source: Nat l Federation of Independent Business, University of Michigan
5 Unemployment Rate 15% 10% Unemployed Underemployed 7.6% 5% 3.9% 0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Bank economists predict 3.6% this year.
6 Unemployed Workers per Job Opening Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
7 Personal Income Seasonally-Adjusted Quarterly Growth Rate on Quarter Average 12% 6% 0% -6% -12% Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
8 Wage Growth 3-Month Moving Year/Year Average Growth 3.5% Bank Economists Forecast 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
9 Household Spending in Line With Income Y/Y percent change 6% 4% After-tax Income Spending 2% 0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
10 Contraction Expansion Business Indexes Industrial Production ISM Manufacturing ISM Non-Manufacturing Sources: Federal Reserve, Institute for Supply Management 89 83
11 Small Business Optimism 35% 30% Recession % 20% 15% 10% Small Business Optimism Index % Small businesses that expect to expand 0% Source: National Federation of Independent Business
12 Business Investment 16% Inflation-Adjusted Growth 12% Pre-2007 Average 8% Fixed Investment Inventories 4% 0% -4% -8% 1960s 1980s 2000s Q3 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
13 The Bad
14 Small Businesses Struggle to Find Skilled Labor Businesses Reporting Few or No Qualified Applicants 54% 25% 31% 38% Source: National Federation of Independent Business
15 FOMC 2019 Projections Number of Rate Hikes in December 2018 September Source: FOMC FOMC Participants
16 Federal Reserve Balance Sheet ($Billions) $4 $3 $2 $1 Liquidity Programs Agency MBS and Debt U.S. Treasury Securities $ Source: Federal Reserve
17 Interest Rates on U.S. Treasuries 15% 12% 9% 10 Year 2 Year 3 Month 6% 3% 0% Source: Federal Reserve
18 National Financial Conditions Index 2 1 Tighter 0-1 Looser Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
19 Home Price Changes 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% -4% -8% -12% Source: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index
20 Housing Prices Outpacing Wage Growth 240 Index, Q2 1996= Home Price Index Wages Index Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
21 The Ugly
22 Compounding Risks Source: Wall Street Journal
23 Uneven Income Growth Real Mean Household Income* Index, 1990= Lowest Quintile Second Quintile Third Quintile Fourth Quintile Highest Quintile Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2017-Adjusted Dollars
24 Non-financial Corporate Debt 75% Percent of GDP 50% 25% Source: Bank for International Settlements
25 U.S. Federal Budget Balance $ Billions $300 $0 Projected -$300 -$600 -$900 -$1,200 -$1, Source: Congressional Budget Office, Wells Fargo
26 Federal Debt Held by the Public 150 % of GDP Projected Civil War Great Depression World War I World War II Source: Congressional Budget Office
27 Net Interest Outlays 7% 6% 5% Net Interest as a Share of GDP 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Source: Congressional Budget Office (June 2018)
28 Outlook Current economic fundamentals remain positive. Risks to the economy are compounding. Policy uncertainty trade, government shutdown, fiscal, global is creating drags. Geopolitical turmoil is always a big risk.
29 Commercial Real Estate
30 Dodge Momentum Index Source: McGraw Hill Dodge Data & Analytics
31 Nonresidential Construction Spending $1,200 $Billions $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 Private Public October Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
32 Net Operating Income Year/Year Growth 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Apartment Retail Industrial Office Source: National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries
33 CRE Capitalization Rates 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% Source: Real Capital Analytics
34 Commercial Property Price Index Source: Real Capital Analytics
35 Property Prices Year/Year Change 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -25% Apartment Retail Industrial Office, CBD Office, Suburban Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
36 Contributions to Commercial Property Price Changes 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% Source: National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries
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