Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities. Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013
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1 1 Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013 June 2012 Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Economist
2 Summary Higher economic growth in 2013, possible recession in 2015 Pent-up demand could drive GDP growth much higher in Fed could reverse its extraordinary actions perhaps later this year. Outlook is still policy-driven. eg., fiscal cliff overhang. Peak season 2013 likely to be 5% higher than in 2012 Range of outcomes is very wide, reflecting macroeconomic uncertainty Other sustainable trends such as accommodating the growing global middle class are impacting freight movement Major shifts in equipment repositioning patterns Imports to shift from North Asia to South Asia and also Mexico Transportation shifts from oil fuels to natural gas
3 Consumer Spending Is Past The Worst Point 300 US Retail, Autos and Home Sales Sales Indexed to 100 in January Cash for Clunkers Value Volume First Time Buyer Tax Credit Value of Retail Sales New Car Units New Homes Units Sales are recovering but levels remain below trend demand is pent up
4 Private Sector Has Led Employment Recovery Accumulated Payrolls (in thousands) Changes In Employment Levels Since 2010 By Sector 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,000 Dec-09 Jan months after the recession officially ended 2010 Census Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar mn +5.7 mn -637 K Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Private Total Federal State Local Private sector efforts were offset by public sector cutting 637K jobs since Jan 2010
5 16% Short Term Interest Rates At Historical Low Federal Reserve s Federal Funds Policy Interest Rate Target 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Discount Rate Fed Funds Target Interest rates are at the lowest levels in at least 63 years
6 Scorecard: Higher GDP Growth in 2013, If Indicator Score Outlook Monetary Policy Positive Low interest rates, ample liquidity (QE3) Inflation Positive Maybe too low, but commodity prices are volatile due to non-us demand Fiscal Policy Negative Budget/debt resolution overshadows near term fiscal policy outlook Financial Sector Positive FDIC s watch list declining, consumer credit more available, slight rise in bond defaults but mostly in stagnant industries Causes of Last Recession Positive Residential real estate sector has already begun the long process of recovery Leading Industries Positive Industries likely to lead growth in this cycle are identifiable and have been investing Production Costs Positive Low interest rates, wages, commodity prices Labor Markets Positive Employment rising in expected industries Global Economy Neutral European debt crisis stabilizing, Emerging Markets deploying expansionary policies if US can get past fiscal budget/debt ceiling Modest recession risk in 2015 as Fed begins to raise interest rates
7 Container Volume Imports Still Below 2007 Peak 6,000,000 Import Volumes (TEUs) For 15 Largest US Container Ports 5,500,000 12% 5,000,000 4,500,000 3% 5% Upside Base 4,000,000 Downside 3,500,000-6% Model Imports 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep GDP growth forecasts underlying the import forecasts range between 0.4% and 4.4% due to policy uncertainty
8 US Container Volumes Still Below 2007 Peak 3,500,000 US International Container Volumes By Type 36.0 million 36.3 million 34.5 million 29.6 million 34.2 million 34.7 million 35.4 million* 3,000,000 2,500,000 Total +14.2% +1.5% +1.8% 2,000,000 Total Loaded +10.7% +3.4% +1.6% 1,500,000 Imports +15.2% +0.7% +3.2% 1,000,000 Exports +5.2% +7.3% -0.4% Empties 500, % -4.8% +2.4% 0 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Slowing global economic growth and the 2012 national drought negatively impacted US exports
9 Unprecedented Grey Tsunami Number of People Turning 65 and Share of US Population: % Last Boomers Turn 65 (2026) 2,000 1,800 20% 1,600 Share 15% 10% 5% First Boomers Turn 65 (2011) 1,400 1,200 1, Thousands of People 0% and Over Share of Population (left) Increase in Over 65 Population (right) US has no policy to deal with the economic and financial implications of the Grey Tsunami
10 China Is Losing Share of US Imports 250 Index of Value of US Imports From China, India and Mexico Imports Indexed to 100 in December China India Mexico Rising wages in China make other locations more attractive for outsourcing Automation could offset outsourcing trends
11 Energy Consumption Patterns Will Change 18 Natural Gas Spot and Relative Prices Per 1 Million BTU Relative Price LT Average = 3x 2 0 LT Average = 1.5x Diesel/Natural Gas Ratio (right) Oil/Natural Gas Ratio (right) Horizontal drilling has significantly changed energy price dynamics Several companies are installing natural gas fuel stations across the US
12 In Summary Higher economic growth and peak season volumes in 2013 Imports shifting from North Asia to Mexico and South Asia Major shifts in equipment repositioning patterns and fuel Ports Container Terminals Bulk Terminals Marinas Ferry & Roll-On/Roll-Off Terminals Thank you for your attention Waterfronts & Leisure Facilities Moffatt & Nichol was founded in 1945 to provide engineering and consultancy services to the world s maritime industry. Today, Moffatt & Nichol supports port and maritime projects, transportation infrastructure, coastal and environmental restorations, and waterfront developments worldwide. Our capabilities allow us to take a project from conception, through the critical study and analysis process and on to design, engineering and program management. Clients can expect thoroughly integrated projects, completed under exacting quality control standards, with the innovation and creativity for which our firm is known worldwide. Dr. Walter Kemmsies, Chief Economist Moffatt & Nichol, New York 104 West 40th Street 14th Floor New York NY T F Quays & Jetties Cruise Ship Facilities Oil & Gas Terminals Harbors Rivers, Canals & Inland Waterways Naval & Coast Guard Bases Wind Power Development Projects Economic & Market Studies Inspection & Rehabilitation Projects
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