Zions Bank Economic Overview
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1 Zions Bank Economic Overview WIB Education Summit September 19, 2017
2 National Economic Conditions
3 Dow Breaks 22,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential Election Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
4 Business Optimism Booms Post Election Source: Trading Economics, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
5 Current Level of Consumer Confidence Remains High Above 110 indicates economic prosperity Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Source: The Conference Board
6 Trumponomics Repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act Cut corporate and income taxes Increase spending on infrastructure and military Reduce government regulations Renegotiate trade deals But can they get it done?
7 August Job Indicators Indicator Expectation Actual Total Nonfarm Payrolls 180, ,000 Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.4% Private Payrolls 180, ,000 Monthly Average Hourly Wage Growth Yearly Average Hourly Wage Growth 0.2% 0.1% 2.5% 2.5% Labor Force Participation 62.9% Sources: Wall street Journal and Bureau of Labor Statistics
8 156,000 Jobs Added in August 83 rd Consecutive Month of Growth Unemployment Near 16 Year Low 150, % Thousands of Employees 145, , , , % 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% Unemployment Rate 125, % Total Nonfarm Employment Unemployment
9 156,000 Jobs Added in August Payroll Change in thousands Million Jobs Lost 16.4 Million Jobs Recovered Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
10 National Employment Change Percent Change in National Employment by Industry: August 2016 to August 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining 8.8% Construction 3.2% Manufacturing 1.1% Trade, Trans., Utilities 1.5% Information -2.4% Financial Activity 1.8% Prof. & Bus. Serv. 3.0% Ed. & Health Serv. 2.1% Leisure & Hospitality 2.1% Other Services Government 0.0% 1.5% Total: 1.4% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
11 National Employment Change Total Change in Number of Jobs by Industry in Thousands: August 2016 to August 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining 58 Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
12 CA 1.7% OR 2.9% WA 2.2% Employment Growth by State NV 2.7% Percent Change in Employment for States: July 2016 to July 2017 U.S. Rate = 1.5% AK -0.3% ID 2.3% UT 2.5% AZ 1.2% MT 1.1% WY -1.1% HI 1.2% CO 1.7% NM 0.2% ND 1.5% SD 0.4% NE 1.2% KS -0.8% TX 2.4% OK 1.1% MN 2.1% IA 1.0% MO 2.0% AR 2.7% WI 0.9% LA 0.6% IL 0.6% MS 0.5% MI 1.4% IN 0.9% TN 1.7% AL 1.6% OH 0.9% KY 1.2% GA 2.2% VT 0.3% WV 0.2% PA 1.0% NC 1.5% SC 1.4% VA 1.5% FL 2.7% NH 1.8% NY 1.5% ME 1.0% DC 2.4% CT 0.7% DE 0.3% MD 1.9% MA 1.3% RI 1.7% NJ 1.2% 2.0% + 1.6% to 1.9% 1.0% to 1.5% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
13 Wage Growth Stagnant 4.0% 3.5% August % 3.0% Average 2.4% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
14 68% Labor Force Participation Seeing Little Change 67% 66% 65% 64% August: 62.9% 63% 62% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
15 Labor Force Participation Among Lowest Level in Almost 40 Years 68% 66% Mar % 64% 62% 60% 58% Apr % August % 56% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
16 Baby Boomers Head for Retirement 68% 38% U.S. Participation Rate 67% 66% 65% 64% 63% 62% 61% 36% 34% 32% 30% 28% 26% 24% 22% Share of % 20% U.S. Participation Rate Age 55+ Share of Working Age Pop Source: Zions Bank Analysis of Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
17 Long-Term Decline of the Teenage Workforce 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate Participation Rate Ages Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
18 Unemployment Remains Low 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 5.0% = Full Employment 3.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
19 Unemployment Rates by State OR 3.8% CA 4.8% WA 4.5% NV 4.8% ID 3.0% UT 3.5% AZ 5.1% MT 3.9% WY 4.0% CO 2.4% NM 6.3% July 2017 U.S. Rate = 4.3% ND 2.2% SD 3.1% NE 2.8% KS 3.7% OK 4.4% MN 3.7% IA 3.2% MO 3.8% AR 3.4% WI 3.2% IL 4.8% MS 5.2% MI 3.7% IN 3.1% TN 3.4% AL 4.5% OH 5.2% KY 5.3% GA 4.8% WV 4.8% VT 3.1% PA 5.0% NC 4.1% SC 3.9% VA 3.8% NH 2.8% NY 4.8% ME 3.7% DC 6.4% CT 5.0% DE 4.8% MD 4.1% MA 4.3% RI 4.3% NJ 4.2% 6.0% + 5.5% to 5.9% AK 7.0% TX 4.3% LA 5.3% FL 4.1% 4.8% to 5.4% 4.0% to 4.7% 3.9% or less HI 2.7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
20 Gap Between Unemployment and Underemployment Narrows 18% 16% 14% 12% 7.1% 10% 8% 6% 4.2% 4% 2% U-6 (Underemployed) U-3 (Unemployment) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
21 10,000 The Number of Part-time Workers for Economic Reasons Spiked during the Great Recession Thousands of Employees 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,
22 8 Long-Term Unemployment Drops Unemployed for more than 27 weeks Millions of Persons July 2017: 1.8 m Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Numbers are rounded
23 Job Openings Hit All-Time High in July Level in Thousands 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2, Hires Openings Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
24 Fewer Unemployed Workers Per Job Opening July Unemployed/Openings Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
25 Labor productivity has declined since strong growth during late 1990 s and early 2000 s Percent Change from Quarter One Year Ago 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% Real output per hour Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
26 Total Compensation $35.00 $30.00 $25.00 $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $0.00 Employment Cost Index Components of Total Compensation $23.29 $4.32 $0.80 $1.53 $16.64 Q % 3.4% 6.6% $26.42 $4.93 $0.95 $1.87 $5.11 $0.96 $2.08 $18.67 $19.58 Q4 2007: Start of Great Recession $ % 18.4% 3.6% 7.1% 3.5% 7.5% Q1 2010: ACA Signed into Law Salary and Wages Health Insurance Retirement Other Benefits $33.12 $6.22 $1.34 $2.50 $ % 70.7% 70.6% 69.6% Q % 4.0% 7.6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
27 Producer Price Index increased in August 5% 4% 3% August 2.4% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% Year-to-Year Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
28 Inflation Continues to Underperform 4.5% 4.0% U.S. Consumer Price Index Yearly Change Rate 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% July 1.7% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
29 Growth in Consumer Spending Under Par 5% 4% 3% Personal Consumption Expenditure Yearly Percent Change July 1.4% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
30 Median Household Income Hits New High $60,000 $58,000 $56,000 $54,000 $52,000 $50,000 $48,000 In 2015 Dollars $59,039 $46, Source: U.S. Census Bureau
31 Personal Income Growth by State Percent Change in Personal Income : 2016 Q Q1 U.S. = 3.7%; UT = 4.9% ID = 4.9% CA 4.8% WA 4.9% OR 3.8% NV 4.8% ID 4.9% UT 4.9% AZ 3.8% MT 3.7% WY -0.5% CO 4.4% NM 2.2% ND 1.0% SD 2.5% NE 1.2% KS 2.5% OK 1.2% MN 3.6% IA 1.9% MO 3.5% AR 3.1% WI 3.1% IL 2.2% MS 2.4% MI 4.4% IN 4.0% TN 4.4% AL 3.2% OH 3.6% % WV 1.9% GA 3.8% VT 1.6% PA 3.9 % NC 4.4% SC 4.6% VA 4.4% NH 3.1% NY 3.0% ME 2.9% DC 4.4% CT 2.5% DE 3.6% MD 4.9% MA 3.8% RI 3.0% NJ 3.5% AK 1.6% TX 3.2% LA 3.0% 4.0% or more 3.6% to 3.9% FL 4.6% HI 3.0% 2.0% to 3.5% 0.0% to 1.9% Decrease Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
32 Income Increases Not Felt Evenly
33 Consumer Spending Drives Growth 6.0% 4.0% Q % 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Personal Consumption Fixed Investment Net Exports Inventories Government Real GDP Growth Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
34 Gross Domestic Product by State: Q U.S. Rate = 1.2% CA 0.1% OR 1.1% WA 2.7% NV 1.0% AK 1.8% ID 2.1% UT 1.9% AZ 0.9% MT -0.5% WY 0.9% CO 0.4% NM 2.8% ND 1.6% SD -3.8% NE -4.0% KS -0.7% TX 3.9% OK 1.9% MN -0.3% IA -3.2% MO 0.9% AR 1.3% WI 2.1% LA 1.0% IL 0.9% MS 1.3% MI 1.5% IN 1.8% TN 1.5% AL 1.9% OH 1.4% KY 1.8% GA 1.7% VT 1.1% WV 3.0% PA 1.2% NC 0.7% SC 1.7% VA 2.0% FL 1.4% NH 0.8% NY 0.3% ME 0.0% DC 0.6% CT 0.6% DE 0.3% MD 2.1% MA 1.1% RI 0.7% NJ 0.6% 2.0% + 1.6% to 1.9% 1.0% to 1.5% 0.0% to 0.9% HI -0.9% Loss Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
35 The U.S. Dollar has Weakened Since the Start of Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Broad Index 1997 = 100 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
36 The Dollar s Percentage Drop Accelerates
37 Euro compared to U.S. Dollar $1.70 $1.60 $ $1.40 $1.30 $1.20 $1.10 $1.00 $0.90 PARITY 1.06 $ Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
38 $1.80 $1.70 $1.60 $1.50 $1.40 $1.30 $1.20 $1.10 British Pound Dropped to New Low Following BrexitVote July 2014 $1.72 Brexit Vote $ Sept $1.32 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
39 China s Yuan Dropping
40 U.S. Total Oil Rigs and Oil Prices 1,700 1,500 $120 $100 Oil Rig Count 1,300 1, $80 $60 $40 Oil Prices 500 $ $0 US Oil Rigs Oil (WTI Crude) Sources: Baker Hughes and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
41 Federal Funds Target Rate Sees 4th Increase in Over a Decade Federal Funds Target Rate = Source: U.S. Federal Reserve
42 6% Fed Funds Rate, Unemployment and Inflation 12% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% 1 st increase since % % 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Unemployment Rate FEDFUNDS PCE %Δ YoY UNRATE
43 4% June 2017 Fed Rate Increase Projections 3% 2.9% 3.0% 2% 2.1% 1.4% 1% 0% Long Run Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
44 Markets Increasing Likelihood of Rate Increases
45 Explosion in the Federal Reserve s Balance Sheet $5.00T $4.50T $4.00T $3.50T $3.00T $2.50T $2.00T $1.50T $1.00T $0.50T Recession QE1 QE2 QE3 $0.00T Mortgage-Backed Securities U.S. Treasury Securities Federal Agency Debt Other Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
46 3.0% Yield Curve Showing Signs of Distress 10-year minus 2-year spread 2.50% 2.0% 1.50% 1.0% 0.50% 0.0% -0.50% -1.0% Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ource: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
47 U.S. Annual Building Permits Thousands 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Single-Family Units Multifamily Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and U.S. Census Bureau
48 Value of Private Nonresidential Construction Surpassed Pre-Recession Levels Millions of Dollars 1,000, , , , , , , , , Total Private Residential Nonresidential Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and U.S. Census Bureau; seasonally adjusted
49 Commercial Property Values Up Dramatically
50 US home prices surpass pre-recession peak $210,000 $190,000 April 2007 $196,600 July 2017 $200,700 $170,000 $150,000 $130,000 $110,000 $90, Source: Zillow Research
51 Number of Foreclosures Dropping Percentage of total homes in foreclosure process U.S. Source: Graphiq.com
52 What Does This Mean for Banks?
53 Economic Positives Strong consumer and business confidence Trumponomics pro growth agenda The Western US has: Strong population growth Strong employment growth Low unemployment Strong income growth Economic Negatives National and international uncertainty Trumponomics success? Depressed business investment Unstable inflation outlook Skills mismatch Low productivity growth Overregulation from Washington
54 American Civics Knowledge Lacking
55 Zions Bank, A Division of ZB, N.A. Member FDIC. Content is offered for informational purposes only and should not be construed as tax, legal, financial or business advice. Please contact a professional about your specific needs and advice. Content may contain trademarks or trade names owned by parties who are not affiliated with ZB, N.A. Use of such marks does not imply any sponsorship by or affiliation with third parties, and ZB, N.A. does not claim any ownership of or make representations about products and services offered under or associated with such marks. Robert Spendlove Economic and Public Policy Officer Robert.Spendlove@zionsbank.com Phone:
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