How Much Wind Is in the Sails?

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1 How Much Wind Is in the Sails? Erie Chamber of Commerce Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations September 20, 2017

2 Real GDP Growth Quarterly and Annualized Real GDP Percent Annualized GDP Annualized GDP Annualized GDP Present Quarterly GDP Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and August 2017 Consensus Forecast.

3 Long-Term Real GDP Growth Trend Percent Change 20-Year Quarterly Moving Average Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real GDP.

4 Economic Growth Percent Change Percent Change Personal Consumption Expenditures Fixed Business Investment Percent Change 10 8 Year-over-Year 6 Year-over-Year SAAR -2-4 SAAR Percent Change Government Spending Imports and Exports 20.0 Year-over-Year Exports Imports SAAR Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Business Research Division.

5 Recession 8 Months Thousands, Month-over- Month, 12-Mo Average National Employment Month-over-Month Change, 12-Month Average Recession 18 Months Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), Moody s Analytics, and NBER.

6 Labor Underutilization Percentage of Labor Force Average U-6 U % Average U-3 U-3 4.4% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

7 Labor Force and Unemployment Rate National by Educational Attainment, Population 25 and Over, August 2017 Percentage LFPR Unemployment Rate 0 Less than a high school diploma High school graduates Some college, no degree Associate degree Bachelor's degree Advanced degree Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS), Not Seasonally Adjusted.

8 State Employment Growth Year-over-Year August 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

9 Wage Growth Year-over-Year Percent Change 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% Year-over-Year 12-Month Average 1.0% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES, Average hourly earnings of all employees, total private, not seasonally adjusted.

10 U.S. Income and Consumption Percent Change 5.0 Real Disposable Income Percent Change 4.0 Real Personal Consumption % % 2.5% % Sources: Consensus Forecasts.

11 Household Wealth Q Q $ Trillions Other Assets Mutual Funds Corporate Equities Real Estate Total Liabilities Source: Federal Reserve Board, Balance Sheet of Households and Nonprofit Organizations (B.101) (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

12 Household Debt Burden Percent of Disposable Income DSR Debt Service Ratio (L) FOR Financial Obligations Ratio (R) Source: Federal Reserve, Household Debt Service and Obligations Ratios.

13 Index of Consumer Confidence 1985=100 Recession 8 months 160 Recession 18 months 140 Mountain Region United States Sources: The Conference Board and National Bureau of Economic Research.

14 Vehicle Sales and Retail Sales Thousands, SAAR 25,000 Vehicle Sales Retail and Food Services Sales Annual Percent Change , ,000 10, , Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Moody s Analytics, U.S. Census Bureau (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

15 Nominal Corporate Profits and Business Fixed Investment Percent Change Nominal Pre-Tax Corporate Profits Percent Change Business Fixed Investment % 4.1% % 3.8% Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Consensus Forecasts.

16 ISM Indices ISM Manufacturing Index ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

17 National FHFA Home Price Growth Year over Year Q Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index, All Transactions Index.

18 National Housing Starts Millions Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Consensus Forecasts.

19 Federal Budget Balance $ Billions $660 -$653-1,000-1,200-1,400-1, Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Consensus Forecasts.

20 U.S. Nominal Broad Dollar Index and Real Net Exports U.S. Nominal Broad Dollar Index 1973= $ Billions Real Net Exports $620 -$ Sources: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Consensus Forecasts.

21 Money, Interest Rates, Credit, and Prices

22 Interest Rates (Forecast) Percent Year T-Note Month T-Bill Sources: Federal Reserve and Moody s.

23 Mortgage Rates (Forecast) Percent Year Fixed Mortgage Year Fixed Mortgage Year Treasury Rate Source: Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve, Moody s Analytics.

24 The FED $ in Millions 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 Treasury Securities Federal Agency Debt Securities Mortgage Backed Securities Other Assets 0-1,000,000-2,000,000 Deposits -3,000,000 Reserve Notes Outstanding, Net Holdings -4,000,000 Other Liabilities -5,000, Source: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet, H.4.1 Statistical Release.

25 National Inflation Year-over-Year Percent Change Shelter All items less food and energy All items Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (SA).

26 Colorado Economy

27 Change in Population Change in Colorado Population Thousands 140, , ,000 80,000 Net Migration 7th-fastest state for percentage growth 8th-fastest state for absolute growth 84% of growth along Front Range Denver now the most populous county 60,000 40,000 20, Natural Increase Continued net migration into the state Source: Colorado Demography Office.

28 Population Broomfield Douglas Weld Denver Adams Larimer Arapahoe Gilpin Elbert Boulder Jefferson Park Clear Creek Annualized Growth Rate Colorado: 1.6% Percentage of 2016 Population Elbert, Park, Clear Broomfield Creek, and Gilpin< 1% 1.2% Other 31.1% Denver 12.6% Arapahoe 11.6% Weld 5.3% Boulder 5.8% Jefferson 10.3% Douglas 5.9% Larimer 6.1% Adams 9.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% Source: Colorado Demography Office.

29 Colorado Employment Growth Jobs Added Thousands , Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and the Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

30 Colorado Employment Change August 2016 August 2017 Employment in Thousands 2,660 2,650 Other Finance Govt Info Const Mining MFG 2017 PBS 2,640 EHS 2,630 L&H Total jobs lost: 1,200 2,620 TTU Total jobs gained: 47,000 2,610 2, Net change: 45,800 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (SA).

31 The Top 5 vs. The Bottom 5 States Jobs Added in 2017 and 2018 Forecast 2017 (1T) Nevada (1T) Utah (3) Florida (4T) Georgia (4T) Texas (11T) Colorado (46) Oklahoma (47) Kansas (48) West Virginia (49) Wyoming (50) Alaska -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2018 (1) Nevada (2) Texas (3) Oregon (4T) Florida (4T) Arizona (9T) Colorado (42T) Pennsylvania (42T) Louisiana (42T) Oklahoma (49) West Virginia (50) Alaska -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% Source: Moody s Analytics, Economy.com.

32 Regional Employment Growth and Unemployment Employment Growth Rate, August 2017 YoY Fort Collins- Loveland Greeley Boulder Colorado Springs Denver-Aurora- Lakewood Pueblo Colorado 1.8% Pueblo Grand Junction Colorado Springs Denver-Aurora- Lakewood Unemployment Rate August 2017 Greeley Boulder Colorado 2.5% Grand Junction Percentage Fort Collins- Loveland Percentage Sources: CES (Seasonally Adjusted) and LAUS (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

33 Employment In Current Decade National, State, and Local Percent 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Greeley Ft. Collins-Loveland Denver Colorado Boulder Colorado Springs National Pueblo Grand Junction 0% -5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

34 Employment Clear Creek Gilpin Elbert Park Boulder Jefferson Denver Arapahoe Larimer Broomfield Weld Adams Douglas Annualized Growth Rate Colorado 1.1% Douglas: 4.6% Larimer: 6% Percentage of 2016 State Employment Boulder: 6.9% Adams: 7.8% Weld: 3.9% Jefferson: 9.1% Arapahoe: 12.6% Broomfield: 1.4% Other: 27.7% Denver: 19.4% Clear Creek, Elbert, Gilpin, Park: 0.5% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW).

35 National Personal Income Growth 2016 Q1 to 2017 Q1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

36 Real Estate and Construction Photo Courtesy

37 Housing Units vs. Households Annual Change 70,000 60, ,000 more housing units than households 50,000 40,000 Households ,000 more households than housing units 30,000 20,000 10,000 Housing Units Source: Colorado State Demography Office. Data as of June 2017.

38 Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Prices by MSA Q Q Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Prices by MSA CAGR Q Q Colorado 10.4% Colorado 3.7% Fort Collins Denver-Aurora-Lakewood Boulder Greeley Pueblo Colorado Springs Grand Junction 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% Percent Boulder Denver-Aurora-Lakewood Fort Collins Greeley Colorado Springs Pueblo Grand Junction -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Percent Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, All Transactions Indexes.

39 Colorado Foreclosures ,000 YTD Foreclosures and Sales 70,000 60,000 50,000 Sales 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Filings Q Q1 Source: Colorado Division of Housing.

40 Residential Building Permits ,000 July YTD ,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 Multifamily 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Single Family 0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau YTD July 2016 YTD July 2017

41 Value of Construction ,000 July YTD ,000 16,000 Non-Building 14,000 12,000 10,000 Non- Residential 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Residential Source: McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge Research and Analytics. YTD July 2016 YTD July 2017

42 Retail Trade Sales Colorado Taxable Retail Sales 12-Month Rolling Sum 12-Month Rolling Sum, $ Millions Percent Change Colorado Retail Trade Sales Nominal Growth Months Real Growth Sources: Colorado Department of Revenue and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

43 Retail Sales Denver Boulder Arapahoe Clear Creek Park Jefferson Gilpin Larimer Elbert Douglas Broomfield Adams Weld Annualized Growth Rate % 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% Percentage of 2015 State Retail Sales Douglas: 5.4% Broomfield: 1.3% Creek, Park, Gilpin: 0.4% Elbert, Clear Larimer: 5.4% Boulder: 5.7% Weld: 5.8% Jefferson: 9.4% Adams: 11.9% Arapahoe: 11.8% Other 31.0% Denver: 15.4% Source: DOLA Retail Sales Report.

44 County Marijuana Tax and Fee Revenue Annual 2016, Grey Counties Forbid Medical and Retail Marijuana Sales Largest: Denver County $14,129,757 Source: The Gazette, (Colorado Springs Newspaper).

45 Colorado General Fund $ Millions $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 Excise $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 Individual and Corporate Income Sales, Use, and Other Excise Fiscal Years Source: Colorado Office of the State Controller and the Colorado Office of State Planning and Budgeting (June 2017). Note: Excludes revenue transferred to the State Education Fund.

46 U.S. and Colorado Economies Q Q Index (50=Neutral) 75 National and State Expectations Colorado United States Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q2 2017

47 Employment and New Entity Filings Employment, thousands 2, month total new entity filings 120,000 2,600 2,500 Employment 110, ,000 2,400 90,000 2,300 2,200 New Entity Filings 80,000 70,000 2, ,000 Note: Solid line displays actual seasonally adjusted employment numbers; dotted line reflects calculated forecasts. Source: Seasonally adjusted. Colorado total nonfarm employees from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES), calculations by BRD research team.

48 Colorado Ranking Among Other States Metric 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Real GDP Growth Employment Growth Population Growth Personal Income Growth PCPI Growth PCPI Average Annual Pay % Growth Average Annual Pay Unemployment Rate Labor Force % Growth FHFA Home Price Index Growth Data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (2017), Bureau of Labor Statistics (10/16), U.S. Census Bureau (2015), Bureau of Labor Statistics (2015), Bureau Federal Housing Finance Agency All Transactions Index (Q3 2016), BRD calculations. Note: 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year are based on the compound annual growth rate.

49 Thank You!

50 National Labor Force Thousands 160, , , ,000 Labor Force Participation Rate Labor Force Percent 68% 66% 64% 62% 80,000 60% 60,000 58% 40,000 56% 20,000 54% 0 52% Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

51 Labor Force Participation Rates National by Age Cohort Percent Peak 2016 Current Age Group Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS).

52 Natural Resources and Mining

53 Colorado Energy Rankings (2016) 7 th for Crude Oil 6 th for Natural Gas 11 th for Coal 8 th for Solar 10 th for Wind 7 th for Electricity Production 34 th for Electricity Consumption Hydroelectric Facilities account for one-sixth of renewable power production in the state. There are 60 small hydroelectric generators in Colorado s mountainous western region. Colorado does not have any Nuclear power plants Sources: EIA

54 Marijuana and Hemp

55 Marijuana Tax and Fee Revenue Monthly Totals, February 2014-July 2017 Millions of Dollars $25 $20 April 2017 $22,867,587 $15 $10 $5 $ Source: Colorado Department of Revenue, Taxation Division.

56 YTD Marijuana Tax and Fee Revenue YTD totals, July, Millions of Dollars $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $ Source: Colorado Department of Revenue, Taxation Division.

57 County Marijuana Tax and Fee Revenue Annual 2016, Grey Counties Forbid Medical and Retail Marijuana Sales Largest: Denver County $14,129,757 Source: The Gazette, (Colorado Springs Newspaper).

58 Colorado Industrial Hemp Production Annual 2016, Statistics 2016 Totals Increase Over Prior Year Increase Since 2014 Registered Acres 8, % 396% Registered Sq. Ft 1.36 Million 138% 438% Active Registrations % 64% Active Registrants % 138% 2.2 million square feet of indoor production Colorado accounts for about of half of U.S. industrial hemp production Source: Colorado Department of Agriculture.

59 Employment By Industry Counties of Concern N&R 0.8% Info 3.2% Other 3% Colorado N&R 1.6% Info 2.8% Other 3.1% TTU 17.9% Financial 6.5% MFG 6.2% TTU 17.6% MFG 5.6% Const 6.1% Govt 14.6% Const 6.1% Govt 15.9% Financial 6.2% PBS 17.5% EHS 12.6% L&H 11.5% PBS 15.9% L&H 12.7% EHS 12.6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW).

60 Wages Broomfield Denver Arapahoe Boulder Douglas Jefferson Adams Larimer Weld Clear Creek Gilpin Elbert Park Average Annual Wages Colorado $54,669 $0 $40,000 $80,000 Percentage of 2016 State Wages Other 35.5% Pueblo 1.7% Mesa 1.7% Arapahoe 14.3% Jefferson 9.0% Weld 3.3% Douglas 5.0% Larimer 5.3% El Paso 8.9% Adams 7.3% Boulder 7.8% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW).

61 Assessed Valuation Clear Creek Douglas Adams Arapahoe Larimer Broomfield Boulder Denver Jefferson Weld Annualized Growth Rate % 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Percentage of 2016 Assessed Values Adams: 5.5% Douglas: 5.6% Boulder: 6.8% Jefferson: 8.2% Larimer: 5% Arapahoe: 9% Weld: 9% Broomfield, Clear Creek, Park, Gilpin, Elbert: 2.9% Other: 33.6% Denver: 14.4% Source: State Of Colorado Forty-Sixth Annual Report To The Governor And The General Assembly.

62 Total Revenue Elbert Jefferson Park Douglas Adams Arapahoe Larimer Broomfield Boulder Denver Annualized Growth Rate % 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% Percentage of 2016 Total Revenue Broomfield: 1.8% Larimer: 5.5% Douglas: 6.8% Adams: 7.4% Boulder: 7.8% Weld: 7.9% Jefferson: 9.6% Other: 25.3% Arapahoe: 11.1% Denver: 15.4% Clear Creek, Elbert, Park, Gilpin: 1.2% Source: State Of Colorado Forty-Sixth Annual Report To The Governor And The General Assembly.

63 Colorado Foreclosures Number of Occupied Units per Foreclosure Colorado Occupied Units per Completed Foreclosure Broomfield Boulder Denver Jefferson Larimer Arapahoe Douglas Weld Adams State Average El Paso Q Q ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 Sources: DOLA Foreclosure Reports and Statistics.

64 Colorado Foreclosure Filings Foreclosure Filings El Paso Denver Arapahoe Adams Jefferson Weld Douglas Larimer Boulder Broomfield Q Q Sources: DOLA Foreclosure Reports and Statistics.

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