WORKFORCE LOCAL AREA EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS (LAUS)
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1 AUGUST 2016
2 WORKFORCE LOCAL AREA EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS (LAUS)
3 1,150,000 1,100,000 1,050,000 1,000, , , , , , ,000 Labor Force Employment June 2015 to June 2016: 36,504 (3.4%) added to labor force 37,746 (3.6%) added to employment 1,242 (-3.2%) subtracted from unemployed Source: Texas Workforce Commission, LAUS.
4 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Unemployed Unemployment Rate 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Source: Texas Workforce Commission, LAUS.
5 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Unemployed Unemployment Rate NSA Unemployment Rate SA 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Source: Texas Workforce Commission & Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, LAUS.
6 6% Austin MSA NSA Texas NSA United States NSA Austin MSA SA Texas SA United States SA 5% 4% 3% 2% 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2016 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun Source: Texas Workforce Commission & Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, LAUS.
7 Austin Texas United States 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Source: Texas Workforce Commission, LAUS.
8 Unemployment Rate Difference Rank June 2015 June 2016 Austin MSA 3.6% 3.3% San Francisco MDiv Silver Spring MDiv Minneapolis MSA Nassau County MDiv Denver MSA Boston NECTADiv Dallas MDiv San Antonio MSA Washington MDiv Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, LAUS.
9 Austin MSA Texas United States 4% 3% 3.3% 3.4% 2% 1% 2.1% 0.4% 0.8% 1.5% 1.6% 1.1% 1.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.8% 0% YTD Jun'15-Jun '16 May '16-Jun '16 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, LAUS.
10 Austin MSA Texas United States 4% 3.6% 3.6% 3% 3.0% 2% 1% 0% -1% 1.7% 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% -0.2% YTD Jun'15-Jun '16 May '16-Jun '16 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, LAUS.
11 WORKFORCE CURRENT EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS (CES)
12 1,025,000 1,000, , , , , , , , , , , ,000 Not Seasonally Adjusted Seasonally Adjusted Austin added 38,400 jobs (4.0%) in the last 12 months Source: Texas Workforce Commission, CES.
13 Millions 1,050,000 1,000, , , , , , , , , , , Source: Texas Workforce Commission, CES. Austin MSA United States
14 Millions 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 (10,000) (20,000) (30,000) (40,000) Austin MSA United States '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 ' (2) (4) (6) (8) Source: Texas Workforce Commission & U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES.
15 Thousands 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 (10,000) (20,000) (30,000) (40,000) (50,000) Austin MSA Texas '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 ' (100) (200) (300) (400) (500) Source: Texas Workforce Commission & U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES.
16 5.0% 4.0% 4.6% Austin MSA Texas United States 4.2% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.4% 2.1% 1.8% 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% YTD Jun'15-Jun '16 May '16-Jun '16 Source: Texas Workforce Commission & U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES.
17 Nonfarm payroll jobs June 2016 June 2015-June 2016 Difference Percent Ch. Fort Lauderdale MDiv 825,300 35, % 1 Orlando MSA 1,199,400 51, Dallas MDiv 2,508,300 99, Austin MSA 1,000,800 38, San Jose MSA 1,085,800 41, Richmond MSA 676,100 24, Phoenix MSA 1,936,200 67, Jacksonville MSA 666,100 23, Seattle MDiv 1,663,300 57, Tampa MSA 1,282,300 43, Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES. Rank
18 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - (2,000) (4,000) (6,000) Source: Texas Workforce Commission, CES.
19 11,000 9,000 7,000 5,000 3,000 1,000 (1,000) (3,000) (5,000) (7,000) (9,000) Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, CES. The Dallas Fed s SA series differs from the SA series from TWC/ BLS due to the Dallas Fed s adoption of a quarterly revision cycle. The TWC/BLS data is benchmarked only annually.
20 15,000 Private Goods Producing Private Service Providing Government 10,000 5,000 - (5,000) (10,000) Net job creation for the 12 months ending June 2016: +3,600 private goods producing jobs +32,100 private service providing jobs +2,700 government jobs (15,000) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Source: Texas Workforce Commission, CES.
21 Construction & nat res Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transp, warehousing, & utilties Information Financial activities Prof & business services Education & health services Leisure & hospitality Other services Government Source: Texas Workforce Commission, CES. 61,300 55,700 52,700 16,400 27,800 55,800 42, , , , , ,800
22 June 2015 June 2016 Construction & nat res Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transp, warehousing, & utilties Information Financial activities Prof & business services Education & health services Leisure & hospitality Other services Government 55,300 61,300 58,100 55,700 47,800 52,700 16,100 16,400 27,400 27,800 53,900 55,800 41,000 42,800 99, , , , , , , , , ,800 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, CES.
23 Construction & nat res Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transp, warehousing, & utilties Information Financial activities Prof & business services Education & health services Leisure & hospitality Other services Government 9,000 7,000 5,000 3,000 1,000-1,000-3,000 Difference Percent Change 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% Source: Texas Workforce Commission, CES.
24 Construction & nat res Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transp, warehousing, & utilties Information Financial activities Prof & business services Education & health services Leisure & hospitality Other services Government 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,000-4,000 Difference Austin % Ch. Austin % Ch. Texas % Ch. U.S. 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% Source: Texas Workforce Commission, CES.
25 Const & natural resources Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transp & utilties Information Financial activities Prof & business services Education & health services Leisure & hospitality Other services Government 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% Austin MSA Texas United States Source: Texas Workforce Commission, CES.
26 WORKFORCE Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) & Current Employment Statistics (CES)
27 1,100,000 1,050,000 1,000, , , , , , , , ,000 Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls (CES) Employment (LAUS) Source: Texas Workforce Commission.
28 Index, Jan. 2000= Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls (CES) Employment (LAUS) Source: Texas Workforce Commission.
29 Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls (CES) Employment (LAUS) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - (10,000) (20,000) (30,000) Source: Texas Workforce Commission.
30 WORKFORCE Current Employment Statistics (CES) & Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (QCEW)
31 1,050,000 1,000, ,000 CES QCEW QCEW data lag CES estimate by several months, however QCEW data is based universe counts rather than sample based survey estimates. Preliminary CES data is revised annually based on QCEW data and other adjustments. 900, , , , , , Source: Texas Workforce Commission.
32 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - (10,000) (20,000) CES QCEW (30,000) Source: Texas Workforce Commission.
33 1,020,000 1,000, , , , , , , , , , , ,000 Not Seasonally Adj. Seasonally Adj. (TWC) Seasonally Adj (Dallas Fed) The Dallas Fed revises their series quarterly based on QCEW releases, while BLS/TWC benchmark CES data to QCEW only annually Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (CES).
34 WORKFORCE AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS
35 Austin MSA Texas United States Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES.
36 $28 Austin MSA Texas United States $27 $26 $25 $24 $23 $22 $21 $ Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES.
37 BUSINESS CYCLE INDEX
38 Index, Oct. 1980= The index summarizes movements in: Nonagricultural employment The unemployment rate Inflation-adjusted wages Inflation-adjusted retail sales June 2016: The index is 6.4% above the same month last year and monthly percent change has been positive since Oct Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
39 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% -0.4% -0.6% Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
40 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% -0.4% -0.6% -0.8% Austin MSA Texas Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
41 Austin Dallas Ft.Worth Houston San Antonio 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% -0.4% -0.6% -0.8% Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
42 10% Austin Dallas Ft.Worth Houston San Antonio 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% YTD Jun '15-Jun '16 May '16-Jun '16 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
43 Index, 1987= Index % Ch. 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. -8%
44 HOUSING MARKET PERMITS
45 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Monthly average , , , , ,843 YTD 16 1,859 Single Family Multifamily 1, Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
46 Austin MSA United States 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 10.9% 12.4% 4.2% 0.2% 16.5% 6.2% -5% -1.5% -10% -15% -20% Source: U.S. Census Bureau % YTD Jun 15-Jun 16 May 16-Jun 16
47 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Austin MSA United States -10% Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
48 Millions $550 $500 $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $ Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Monthly average 2007 $237M M M M M M M M M YTD M Single Family Multifamily
49 20% Austin MSA United States 19.7% 18.5% 15% 12.3% 15.1% 10% 5% 5.2% 5.2% 7.3% 0% -5% -10% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. -6.4% YTD Jun 15-Jun 16 May 16-Jun 16
50 HOUSING MARKET HOME SALES & PRICES
51 3,500 3,000 2, : +18.9% : +0.6% : +4.6% YTD 15-16: +6.6% 2,000 1,500 1, Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University.
52 60% Austin MSA Texas United States 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University.
53 14 Austin Texas United States Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University & National Association of Realtors.
54 $310,000 $290,000 $270,000 $250,000 $230,000 $210,000 $190,000 Austin MSA United States $170, May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2016 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University & National Association of Realtors.
55 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Austin MSA United States 8.3% 8.1% 6.8% 4.8% 3.7% 2.6% Jun 15-Jun 16 May 16-Jun 16 Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University & National Association of Realtors.
56 90% 80% 70% Austin MSA United States 60% 50% 40% 30% The HOI is a measure of the % of homes sold in a given area during the quarter that are affordable to households earning that area s median family income Source: National Association of Home Builders.
57 COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
58 16% Vacancy Rate Lease Rate $33 14% $31 12% $29 10% $27 8% $25 6% Source: CoStar. $23
59 Vacancy Rate Lease Rate 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% Source: CoStar. $10.00 $9.50 $9.00 $8.50 $8.00 $7.50 $7.00 $6.50 $6.00 $5.50
60 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% Vacancy Rate Lease Rate $20.50 $20.00 $19.50 $19.00 $18.50 $18.00 $17.50 $ % Source: CoStar. $16.50
61 SALES TAX & RETAIL SALES
62 Millions 25 City of Austin Austin MTA City of Round Rock City of San Marcos Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.
63 Billions $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts.
64 Millions of 2016 Q1 Dollars $11,000 $10,000 $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $ Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
65 VENTURE CAPITAL
66 Austin MSA United States $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $ Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers/Thompson Reuters/NVCA MoneyTree Survey. $18,000 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0
67 Millions Austin MSA United States $20 $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers/Thompson Reuters/NVCA MoneyTree Survey.
68 Millions $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 VC Investment in Austin YTD YTD Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers/Thompson Reuters/NVCA MoneyTree Survey. Austin as a % of Total U.S. VC Investment 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0%
69 PATENT ACTIVITY
70 ,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Source: U.S. Patent & Trademark Office.
71 % 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Source: U.S. Patent & Trademark Office.
72 Source: U.S. Patent & Trademark Office.
73 AIR SERVICE
74 1,200,000 1,100,000 1,000, , , , , ,000 Passengers : +3.8% : +6.2% : +7.0% : +11.0% YTD 15-16: +7.7% Passengers, 12-Mo. Moving Avg. 400, Source: Austin-Bergstrom International Airport.
75 1,200, ,100,000 1,000, , , , , ,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Austin-Bergstrom International Airport.
76 Thousands Millions ABIA United States Source: Austin-Bergstrom International Airport & U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics. 30
77 Weight (lbs.) 25,000,000 20,000, : +1.5% : +1.9% : -2.0% : +1.3% YTD 15-16: +1.3% 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000, Source: Austin-Bergstrom International Airport.
78 Beverly Kerr, Vice President, Research Chris Ramser, Director, Research This file & latest monthly report/spreadsheets: Bi-monthly Central Texas Economy in Perspective articles:
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