Zions Bank Economic Overview

Transcription

1 Zions Bank Economic Overview Veteran Owned Business Conference May 11, 2018

2 Dow Tops 26,000 Up 48% Since 2016 Election Jan 26, ,616 Oct 30, ,888 Source: Wall Street Journal

3 Dow Around Correction Territory Down More than Ten Percent Jan 26, ,616 Source: Wall Street Journal

4 Volatility Returns to the Stock Market Dow Jones Industrial Average 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 23,000 22,000 21,000 20,000 19,000 Jan-2017 Feb-2017 Mar-2017 Apr-2017 May-2017 Jun-2017 Jul-2017 Aug-2017 Sep-2017 Oct-2017 Nov-2017 Dec-2017 Jan-2018 Feb-2018 Mar-2018 Apr-2018 May-2018

5 Why?

6 Business Optimism Booming Source: Trading Economics, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

7 Consumer Confidence Remains High 140 April Above 110 indicates economic prosperity Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Source: The Conference Board

8 Source: Trading Economics, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Optimism Booming

9 Trumponomics Repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act Tax Reform Increase spending on infrastructure and military Reduce government regulations Renegotiate trade deals But can they get it done?

10 US Tax Reform Overview Individual (Sunset in 2025) Small changes to tax rates Increase standard deduction Eliminate personal exemption Double child tax credit Lower mortgage interest deduction from $1m to $750k Cap deductions for state and local taxes at $10,000 Eliminate various itemized deductions Remove the health insurance mandate (permanent) Corporate (Permanent) Reduce corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% Pass-through income deduction of 20% Repatriation of foreign income at 15.5% (territorial tax system) Economic Impact Score of around $1.5 trillion Many US companies already increasing wages and bonuses Increase GDP by up to 0.5% Fed reaction?

11 Economic Growth Slowed at the Start of 2018 but Remains Strong 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% Q % 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Personal Consumption Fixed Investment Net Exports Inventories Government Real GDP Growth Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

12 April Job Indicators Indicator Expectation Actual Total Nonfarm Payrolls 191, ,000 Unemployment Rate 4.0% 3.9% Private Payrolls 190, ,000 Monthly Average Hourly Wage Growth Yearly Average Hourly Wage Growth 0.2% 0.1% 2.7% 2.6% Labor Force Participation 62.9% 62.8% Sources: Wall street Journal and Bureau of Labor Statistics

13 500 April Marks 91 Straight Months of Job Growth Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

14 But Employment Growth Rates Trending Down Source: Wall Street Journal

15 National Employment Change Percent Change in National Employment by Industry: April 2017 to April 2018 Ntl. Res. & Mining 8.8% Construction 3.7% Manufacturing 2.0% Trade, Trans., Utilities 1.1% Information -0.9% Financial Activity 1.5% Prof. & Bus. Serv. 2.5% Ed. & Health Serv. 1.9% Leisure & Hospitality 1.7% Other Services Government 0.0% 1.7% Total: 1.6% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

16 National Employment Change Total Change in Number of Jobs by Industry in Thousands: April 2017 to April 2018 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

17 Unemployment Rate at Lowest-Level Since December % 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% April % 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 5.0% = Full Employment 3.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

18 68% Labor Force Participation Fell Slightly in April 67% 66% 65% April % 64% 63% 62% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

19 Labor Force Participation Among Lowest Level in Almost 40 Years 68% 66% 64% 62% 60% 58% 56% Apr % Mar April Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

20 90% 80% Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate Men April % 70% 60% 50% 40% Women April % 30% Men Women Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

21 Baby Boomers Head for Retirement 68% 38% U.S. Participation Rate 67% 66% 65% 64% 63% 62% 61% 36% 34% 32% 30% 28% 26% 24% 22% Share of % 20% U.S. Participation Rate Age 55+ Share of Working Age Pop Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

22 Long-Term Decline of the Teenage Workforce 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate Participation Rate Ages Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

23

24 Standard of Living Best Ever

25 One Unemployed Worker Per Job Opening March Unemployed/Openings Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

26 Annual Wage Growth Declined in April 4.0% 3.5% April % 3.0% 2.5% Average 2.4% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

27 Source: Wall Street Journal Wage Growth Lagging Job Growth

28 5% Producer Price Index 4% 3% Mar % 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% Year-to-Year Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

29 Inflation is Starting to Converge on the Fed s 2% Goal 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% Mar PCE 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% Mar Core PCE 1.8% -2.0% PCE Core PCE (Excludes Food and Energy) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

30 Federal Funds Target Rate Sees 6th Increase in Over a Decade 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% Federal Funds Target Rate = % 1.0% 0.0% Source: U.S. Federal Reserve

31 March 2018 Fed Rate Increase Projections 4% 3% 2.7% 2.9% 3.1% 3.4% 2.8% 2.9% 2% 2.1% 2.1% 1% 0% Longer Run Dec-17 Mar-18 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

32 Fed Rate Increase Projections

33 Source: Wall Street Journal Is a Recession on the Way?

34 Source: Wall Street Journal Oil Prices Rising

35 Source: Wall Street Journal Which is Causing Gas Prices to Rise

36 Economic Protectionism Increases Costs Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

37 Economic Impact of Trade Wars - Cattle Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

38 Economic Impact of Trade Wars - Hogs Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

39 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Impact of Trade Wars - Cars

40 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Trade Wars Hurt Growth

41 Utah Economic Conditions

42 CA 0.6% OR 1.4% WA 1.7% NV 2.0% Utah Population 3 rd Fastest Growing in U.S. ID 2.2% UT 1.9% AZ 1.6% AK -0.2% MT 1.1% WY -1.0% CO 1.4% NM 0.1% Percent Change: 2016 to 2017 U.S. Rate = 0.7% ND 0.0% SD 0.9% NE 0.7% TX 1.4% KS 0.3% 0.2% OK 0.2% MN 0.9% IA 0.5% MO 0.4% AR 0.5% WI 0.4% LA 0.0% IL -0.3% MS 0.0% MI 0.3% IN 0.5% TN 1.0% AL 0.3% OH 0.3% KY 0.4% WV -0.7% VT 0.0% PA 0.1% NC 1.1% SC 1.3% GA 1.1% VA 0.7% FL 1.6% NH 0.6% NY 0.1% ME 0.4% DC 1.4% CT 0.0% DE 1.0% MD 0.5% MA 0.5% RI 0.2% NJ 0.4% 1.5% + 0.7% to 1.4% 0.2% to 0.6% 0.0% to 0.1% Loss HI -0.1% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

43 Utah Counties Growth Outpacing Nation Percent Change: 2016 to 2017 U.S. Rate = 0.7% 1.5% + 0.7% to 1.4% 0.2% to 0.6% 0.0% to 0.1% Loss Source: U.S. Census Bureau

44 Utah Population and Components of Change Total Population 3,600,000 3,300,000 3,000,000 2,700,000 2,400,000 2,100,000 1,800,000 1,500,000 1,200, , , , ,101,833 22,587 34,886 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000-20,000 Components of Population Change Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population Sources: U.S. Census Bureau e = estimate, f = forecast

45 Utah Population Growth Rates By County 2016 to 2017 State Average = 1.9% 3.0%+ 1.8% to 2.9% 1.0% to 1.7% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Source: U.S. Census Bureau

46 Utah is Tied for the Fastest Employment Growth Percent Change in Employment for States: Mar to Mar U.S. Rate = 1.5% UT Rate = 3.3% 2.0% + 1.6% to 1.9% 1.0% to 1.5% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

47 Utah Total Employment at New Highs Thousands of Employees 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, Loss of 92,000 jobs from Gain of 333,100 jobs from low in Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand Total Nonfarm Employment

48 Utah Industries Seeing Growth Percent Change in Utah Employment by Industry: March 2017 to March 2018 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Total: 3.3% -1.2% -0.5% 5.0% 3.2% 4.2% 2.6% 2.5% 3.5% 3.5% 5.0% 1.6% -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

49 Utah Industries Seeing Growth Total Change in Utah Employment by Industry: March 2017 to March 2018 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government ,000 2,100 4,600 4,100 3,900 7,000 7,000 7,200 11,400 Total: 48,000-3,000-1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 13,000 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

50 Utah Employment Change Rates By County March 2017 to March 2018 State Rate = 3.3% 5.0% + 3.3% to 4.9% 1.0% to 3.2% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

51 Utah Has the 11 th Lowest Unemployment Rate March 2018 U.S. Rate = 4.1%; UT = 3.1% VT 3.4% NH 4.4% MA 3.8% CT NJ 3.9% 2.7% RI 3.5% MD 2.6% DC 5.7% 6.0% + 5.5% to 5.9% 4.8% to 5.4% 4.0% to 4.7% 3.9% or less Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

52 Utah Unemployment Rates By County February 2018 State Rate = 3.1% 7.0% + 6.0% to 6.9% 4.0% to 5.9% 3.2% to 3.9% 3.1% or lower Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

53 Utah Personal Income Growth 3 rd Highest in the Nation Percent Change in Personal Income : U.S. = 3.1%, UT = 4.4% ID = 4.7% VT 3.4% NH 4.4% MA 3.8% CT NJ 3.9% 2.7% RI 3.5% MD 2.6% DE 2.5% DC 5.7% 4.0% or more 3.6% to 3.9% 2.0% to 3.5% 0.0% to 1.9% Decrease Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

54 Utah Poverty Rate 7 th Lowest in the Nation CA 14.3% WA 11.3% OR 13.3% NV 13.8% AK 9.9% ID 14.4% UT 10.1% AZ 16.3% 2016 U.S. Rate = 14.0%, Utah Rate = 10.1% MT 13.3% WY 11.3% HI 9.3% CO 11.0% NM 19.8% ND 10.6% SD 13.3% NE 11.4% KS 12.1% TX 15.6% OK 16.3% MN 9.9% IA 11.8% MO 14.0% AR 17.1% WI 11.8% LA 20.1% IL 13.0% MS 20.8% 18.1% + MI 15.0% IN 14.1% TN 15.8% AL 17.1% 15.1% to 18.0% 12.1% to 15.0% 10.1% to 12.0% 10.0% or less OH 14.6% KY 18.5% WV 17.8% VT 11.9% PA 12.9% VA 11.0% NC 15.4% SC 15.3% GA 16.0% FL 14.6% NH 7.2% NY 14.6% ME 12.5% DC 18.6% CT 9.8% DE 11.6% MD 9.6% MA 10.4% RI 12.8% NJ 10.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Community Survey 1-year estimate

55 Utah Consumer Confidence Hits New High Jul-12 Above 110 indicates economic prosperity Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: Zions Bank Utah Consumer Attitude Index: Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Sources: Conference Board and Cicero Group

56 Utah Inflation Higher Than US 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% Sep-2011 Dec-2011 Mar-2012 Jun-2012 Sep-2012 Dec-2012 Mar-2013 Jun-2013 Sep-2013 Dec-2013 Mar-2014 Jun-2014 Sep-2014 Dec-2014 Mar-2015 Jun-2015 Sep-2015 Dec-2015 Mar-2016 Jun-2016 Sep-2016 Dec-2016 Mar-2017 Jun-2017 Sep-2017 Dec-2017 Mar-2018 United States CPI: +2.4% Zions Bank Wasatch Front CPI: +2.6% Source: U.S. CPI from National Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wasatch Front CPI from Cicero Group

57 $275,000 $255,000 $235,000 $215,000 $195,000 $175,000 $155,000 $135,000 $115,000 $95, Utah home values continue to rise Utah Dec $262, U.S. Dec $206, United States Utah Source: Zillow Research

58 30,000 Utah Residential Construction Activity Continues to Rise 25,000 20,000 15,000 Forecast 10,000 5, Single-Family Units Multifamily Total Source: Ivory-Boyer Construction Database, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

59 Household Creation Surpasses Housing Units Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Population Projections and Ivory Boyer Construction Database

60 Millions of Dollars $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $ Utah Value of New Residential Construction Increasing Residential Nonresidential Renovations Total Source: Ivory-Boyer Construction Database, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Forecast 2018

61 Utah Economic Indicators f Population Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate Personal Income Home Prices Retail Sales e 2018f 2019f Sources: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group, Moody s Economy.com, IHS Global Insights e = estimate f = forecast

62 Zions Bank, A Division of ZB, N.A. Member FDIC. Content is offered for informational purposes only and should not be construed as tax, legal, financial or business advice. Please contact a professional about your specific needs and advice. Content may contain trademarks or trade names owned by parties who are not affiliated with ZB, N.A. Use of such marks does not imply any sponsorship by or affiliation with third parties, and ZB, N.A. does not claim any ownership of or make representations about products and services offered under or associated with such marks. Robert Spendlove Economic and Public Policy Officer Robert.Spendlove@zionsbank.com Phone: