The U.S. Market Post Bankruptcy Where Do We Go From Here? Rebecca A Lindland Director, The Americas

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1 The U.S. Market Post Bankruptcy Where Do We Go From Here? Rebecca A Lindland Director, The Americas

2 U.S. Economic Overview

3 Economic and Auto Market Overview The Economy Good News: We are at the bottom of the recession; the Bad News: The hole is deep and it will take a long time to dig out Cash for Clunkers helped, but the market really needs the economy to return to health before we see sustained growth Auto credit conditions have become better, but subprime auto lending is still dead Leasing is showing some signs of life, GM has returned to the arena Inventories are now in balance if not even too low in some cases GM and Chrysler must now survive post-bankruptcy, post C4C and pre-recovery The auto recovery will be still be anemic, intensifying competitive pressures

4 U.S. Economy Some Positive Signs (Percent unless otherwise noted / September 2009) Real GDP Growth Employment Growth CPI Inflation Oil Prices (WTI, U.S.$/bbl) Housing Starts mm Federal Funds Rate Dollar (Major Trading 2005=1)

5 Economic Growth Only Returns to Normal in (Percent change) 2009 is horrendous. The economy recovers in 2010, but the recovery is very weak Real GDP Pessimistic (20%) Optimistic (20%)

6 The Housing and Consumer Situation

7 Home Prices Will Decline Through (Year-over-year percent change) FHFA Index Median Existing Home Price, NAR

8 Home Sales Probably Near Bottom (Millions of units) (Millions of units) New Home Sales (Left scale) Existing Home Sales (Right scale)

9 Housing Starts Will Hit Bottom in (Millions of units) Single-Family Multi-Family

10 Mostly Bad News For Consumer Finances Negative Forces Job Losses Declining Housing Wealth Stock Market Losses Tight Credit High Debt Burdens Low Saving Rate Positive Forces Low Energy Prices Fiscal Stimulus Stock Price Rally

11 Consumer Sentiment and Spending 9 (Annual percent change) (Michigan Index, 1966=100) Real Consumption Growth Consumer Sentiment

12 Auto Market Overview

13 Cash for Clunkers (CARS) Economic Impact C4C was far more successful than many expected 690,000 new vehicles were sold under the program in a one month period About two thirds of these sales were pulled ahead from future months But about a third were incremental sales to people who normally buy used cars Show room traffic was at levels not seen in years But it wasn t all good news: The Government s inability to keep up with the program caused many dealers to face cash flow problems Some consumers were forced to wait weeks for their new vehicles after turning in their clunkers Other consumers were disappointed to find that their clunker was disqualified on a technicality Dealers are still waiting for payments from the government Unfortunately, C4C is not likely to prove to be the catalyst necessary to jump start vehicle sales the underlying economics and consumer confidence are still too weak

14 New Vehicle Buyers Average Credit Score Avg. Score Auto lending is beginning to loosen up Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 FICO SCORE % UNDER 670 Percent 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% Source: CNW Marketing

15 United States Car and Truck Sales, SAAR 13 (Units in millions) Cars got a big boost from C4C sales but typically have been running about 50/50 each month Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 CARS LT. TRUCKS

16 Lease Share Plummeting truck residuals and tight credit crippled leasing, but GM and Chrysler are coming back into the market with help from GMAC 30 (Percent) Source: CNW Marketing Months

17 U.S. Sales Major Manufacturers Market Share 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% GM FORD CHRYSLER TOYOTA HONDA NISSAN

18 U.S. Sales Asian Manufacturers Market Share 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% HYUNDAI KIA SUBARU MAZDA MITSUBISHI SUZUKI

19 U.S. Sales European Manufacturers Market Share 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% BMW MINI MB/SMART AUDI VW ALFA PORSCHE

20 3.0 (Millions) Growth In Driving Age Population Ages 16 to 85 Baby boomers started coming into the market in 1962, adding well over 2.5 million drivers per year Gen Y started coming into the market in 1994, adding nearly the same 2.5 million drivers per year Year - to- Year Change Veh Per Driver

21 U.S. Light Vehicle Sales: Relative to Driving-Age Population 11% (Percent) 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Ages 16 to 85

22 U.S. Light Vehicles Scrappage (Units/ Thousands) Total Vehicles Scrapped - L % of PARC - R 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% Source: R. L. Polk and IHS Global Insight

23 U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Market is not back on track until 2012, a year after the economy recovers (Units in millions) Current Base Pessimistic (20%) Optimistic (20%) Current Outlook 2009: 10.26M units 2010: 11.12M units 2011: 13.75M units 2012: 15.57M units 2013: 16.55M units 2014: 17.02M units 2015: 17.38M units

24 Generational Trends in the Marketplace

25 Evolution Of Consumers Since 1960, eight generations of American consumers have been present in the marketplace: Centennial Generation born Doughboy Generation born Flapper Generation born Depression Generation born Quiet Generation born Baby Boom Generation born Generation X born Generation Y born Generation Z born since 1995

26 300 (In millions) The Mix of Generations in the Market is Constantly Changing Since 2000, the industry has seen the rapid retreat of the Depression Generation from the market by 2014, they will be all out The same time period has seen the arrival of Generation Y into the automotive market as well as Generation X moving into their peak earning years Generation Y Generation Z 150 Generation X Baby Boom Generation 100 Quiet Generation 50 Depression Generation

27 Consumer Profile Gen Y % Depress Gen Y 19% 20% Gen X 20% Baby Boomers 36% Quiets 14% 2005 Gen X 20% Depress 12% Quiets 14% Baby Boomers 34% Gen Y 29% Depress 5% Quiets 13% 57% of market will be 50 or younger Gen Z 12% Quiets 12% Gen X 19% Baby Boomers 34% Gen Y 27% Gen X 18% Baby Boomers 31%

28 Path For Import-Branded Products To prevent a decline in market share, OEMs must capture BOTH Gen X and Gen Y and be working towards Gen Z! Gen X is moving into its peak earning years The leading edge of Gen Y is moving into the life stage where many buy new vehicles But the non-domestics (import brands) already have an advantage: Gen X and Y currently purchase import branded products at a higher rate than any other generation And Gen Y continues to be under influence from their Baby Boomer parents who have very high purchasing rates 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 47% 55% 60% 64% 66% Depression Quiets Boomers Gen X Gen Y Take Rates of Import-Branded Products by Generation Source: Strategic Vision

29 So What Will Be The Likely Impact Of Generations X and Y? OEMs will likely lose share as Gen X and Gen Y begin to dominate the market unless they can find a way to connect strongly with both Gen X and Gen Y Brands like Volkswagen, Honda and Nissan could enjoy significant share increases since they appeal to both Generations X and Y Premium brands like BMW and Audi could be propelled upward by Gen X and by more affluent Gen Y s who can t wait for premium Longer term, as more Gen Y s enter the premium market, some unexpected brands like Cadillac could see a significant sales increase Cadillac is new for this generation and their parents don t drive them Gen Y reveres their grandparents and their grandparents style as they find their adult look

30 Thank You! Rebecca A. Lindland Director, The Americas

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