OUTLOOK FOR US AGRICULTURE. Rob Johansson Acting Chief Economist 19 February 2015

Transcription

1 OUTLOOK FOR US AGRICULTURE Rob Johansson Acting Chief Economist 19 February 2015

2 Fig 1 Next boost to productivity: Big Data? Index: 1948 = 1.0 $million (2006 dollars) 3.0 $12, $R&D Output Input TFP $10,000 $8,000 $6, Weed and pest resistant biotech $4, # tractors > # horses + mules No-till becomes starts to become popular Satellites used for precision ag Big data applications? $2,000 $0 Source: USDA-ERS.

3 Fig 2 Record farm equity (net worth) in 2015 $billion 3,000 $billion 3,000 2,500 2,500 2,000 1,500 Real 2,000 1,500 1, Nominal 1, F Data: USDA-ERS.

4 Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2024 and OCE, February 2015 Fig 3 Real commodity prices have been trending down for the past 60+ years 2005= Corn Soybeans Rice 2005= Wheat

5 Disposable personal income per capita ($2014) Fig 4 Percent of income spent on food $14,000 30% $12,000 $10,000 Food Share (right axis) 25% 20% $8,000 $6,000 15% Food Share (%) $4,000 per capita DPI (left axis) 10% $2,000 5% $0 0% Source: Schnepf (2013), BEA, USDA-ERS.

6 Recent declines in energy prices help bottom line Fig 5 Dollars per barrel ($2015) Dollars per Mcf ($2015) $ $10.00 $9.00 $ $80.00 Imported crude oil price (left axis) Natural gas wellhead price (right axis) $8.00 $7.00 $6.00 $60.00 $5.00 $4.00 $40.00 $3.00 $20.00 $2.00 $1.00 $0.00 $ Source: EIA.

7 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Fig 6 Ethanol margin tightens but production high Ethanol Margin Ethanol Production 2 $ per gallon annualized rate in billion gallons RFS Source: 1 OCE calculations, AMS data for IA, NE, IL/eastern corn belt, 2 Energy Information Agency.

8 Fig 7 Rail transport costs return to normal levels in 2015 Average secondary railcar shuttle market bids per car $6,000 $6,000 $5,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 UP BNSF $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $1,000 $- $- $(1,000) $(1,000) Source: USDA Grain Transportation Report

9 Fig 8 The dollar strengthens, but trade still trends up 2000 = 100 Billion dollars (nominal) 120 $ Strength of US dollar (left axis) Monthly Agriculture Exports (right axis) $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 Source: InterContinental Exchange, USDA-ERS.

10 Fig 9 Drought outlook improves, but intensifies in Southwest Area of California in Extreme to Exceptional drought (D3-D4) rose since last year (approximately 67% vs. 61% on Feb 11, 2014); California statewide average snow water equivalent as of February 10, 2015 is 6 (27% of normal for this time of year and 19% of the April 1 end-of-season total. SOURCE: California Cooperative Snow Surveys).

11 Fig 10 Farm Bill implementation progressing Signups for Oct 2011-Dec 2014 livestock disaster assistance Base acre reallocation; Program yield updates PLC, ARC-CO, or ARC-Farm election 2014 and 2015 program year enrollment First possible 2014 ARC/PLC payments Apr 2014-Jan 2015 Nov 2014-Feb 2015 Nov 2014-Mar 2015 Apr-summer 2015 Oct 2015 Apr 2014 Sept 2014-Dec 2015 Jan-Mar 2015 Apr 2015 Spring 2016 First payments for livestock disaster assistance MPP-dairy registration for Sept-Dec 2014 and calendar 2015 Purchase of 2015 crop insurance, SCO, and STAX policies First possible MPP payments First payments of 2015 crop insurance, SCO, and STAX indemnities

12 Ag Trade Outlook

13 Fig 11 Second highest year for exports expected; China remains top destination $billion FY 2015 Ag Exports $141.5 billion Imports $119.0 billion Balance $22.5 billion China ROW Source: USDA (ERS-FAS) Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade

14 Million Metric Tons 01/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2014 Source: Global Trade Information Services (GTIS) Fig 12 Monthly Chinese soybean imports United States Argentina +Brazil ROW

15 Million Metric Tons 10/ /2010 Source: Global Trade Information Services (GTIS) 02/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2014 Fig 13 12/2014 Monthly Chinese corn/barley/sorghum imports US-CORN US-SORGHUM US-DDG Ukraine-CORN Thailand/Burma/Laos-CORN Other-CORN BARLEY Other-SORGHUM Other-DDG

16 Million metric tons 90/91 95/ /06 15/16 Fig Projections down slightly for China imports, but still increasing Last year's projection Imports of grains, oilseeds, cotton combined This year's baseline projection 0 Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2024

17 Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to Fig Global trade growth is expected to continue million metric tons Soybeans and products Wheat Coarse Grains 50 0

18 Fig 16 TPP* and TTIP*: Room to grow *TPP partners include Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam. TPP Ag Trade Exports $150.5 billion Imports $111.9 billion U.S. Ag Trade U.S exports $62.6 billion U.S. imports $57.2 billion Total $262.4 billion U.S. imports $19.1 billion U.S. exports $12.6 billion TTIP Ag Trade *TTIP partner is EU-28. Total $498.5 billion Total $222 billion Sources: Economic Research Service, Foreign Agriculture Service, USDA; World Trade Organization; European Commission

19 Outlook for Crops

20 Fig 17 Global grain ending stocks build strength Crop Average / / / / / / /15 Days of use Wheat Corn Rice Soybeans Cotton Numbers in red denote record levels. Source: USDA, PSD database

21 Source: USDA-NASS, Feb 2015 WASDE, and USDA-World Ag Outlook Board Fig 18 Corn, wheat, and soybean prices still historically strong, given record output average 2008/ / / / / / / /16F Wheat Corn Soybeans Upland Cotton All Rice Wheat, corn and soybeans in dollars per bushel; rice in dollars per hundredweight; upland cotton in cents per pound. Numbers in red denote record levels.

22 Fig 19 Cropland area expected to remain high in 2015, but down from last year Crop (mil. acres) F Percent change Corn % Soybeans % Wheat % All cotton % Minor feed grains % Rice % Total 8 crops % CRP % 8 crops + CRP % Source: USDA-World Ag Outlook Board 1 all cotton, includes both upland and ELS cotton

23 Fig 20 Bil $ 60 Specialty crop revenues expected to drop in 2015 Fruits and nuts 50 Vegetables F 2015F Source: USDA-ERS

24 Livestock outlook

25 Fig 21 Pork, dairy and poultry production higher in 2015 Animal products F % Change 2015/14 Million Pounds Beef % Pork % Broilers % Total Meat % Billion Pounds Milk % Prices in red denote record levels. Source: Office of the Chief Economist, February 2015

26 2000 Source: USDA-NASS Fig 22 Feed price ratios improved since Extended period of low price ratios Hogs Steers Broilers (right axis)

27 Fig 23 Cattle inventory up January 2015 US: Jan 2014: 88,526 Jan 2015: 89,800 NC=No Change Change: 1,274 % Change: 1.4% Source: USDA-NASS Cattle report

28 Fig 24 Year-over-year declines in PEDv

29 Source: USDA PSD database F Fig 25 Meat exports expected to remain high 1000 MT 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Beef and veal Pork Broilers 0

30 Dairy exports remain high, but down from MT 600 Fig Nonfat Dry Milk Butter Cheese Dry Whole Milk Powder Source: USDA PSD database

31 Fig 27 Hog, dairy, and broiler prices expected to come down from 2014; cattle prices rise Animal products F % Change 2015/14 Prices in red denote record levels. Dollars per cwt Steers % Hogs % Broilers % Milk % Source: Office of the Chief Economist, February 2014

32 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Fig 28 Jan-16 Dairy margins nearing $8 per cwt $ per cwt $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 Source: NASS and AMS data for history, forecast from FSA Margin Protection Program Decision Tool, Feb 13, 2015

33 Farm income and land values

34 Net farm income is down, but debt-to-assets remain historically low Billion dollars Percent Fig Debt-to-Asset ratio (right axis) Net farm income (left axis) F Data: USDA-ERS.

35 High farm incomes in were used to purchase land, inventory, and machinery Fig 30 Billion dollars ($2009) Billion dollars ($2009) 300 3, , , , , Inventories Value of machinery and motor vehicles 500 Real estate F Data: USDA-ERS

36 Farmland values coming down in some areas Percent Year-over-Year change in Q4 Percent 50 Fig Illinois Indiana Wisconsin Iowa Data: Federal Reserve Bank Chicago.

37 Outlook for Food Prices

38 Fig 32 Food CPI remains low Year-over-Year Change (%) Year-over-Year Change (%) ALL FOOD ERS forecast: % for Source: BLS.

39 Fig 33 Retail meat price inflation is above 10% y-o-y Year-over-Year Change (%) Year-over-Year Change (%) Cereals and Baked Goods Meats Source: BLS.

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