Cattle Market Situation and Outlook: 2015 and Beyond

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1 Cattle Market Situation and Outlook: 2015 and Beyond Derrell S. Peel Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness and Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist Oklahoma State University

2 2015 Market Setting Global U.S. Economy Agriculture Cattle Industry

3 Major Beef Market Factors Cattle Inventory and Beef Production Beef Demand International Trade Feed and Input Markets Forage Conditions

4 $ Per Cwt. 370 MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-49A 04/06/15

5 $ Per Cwt. 260 MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC C-P-49 04/06/15

6 $ Per Cwt SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES Southern Plains, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS C-P-52 04/06/15

7 $ Per Cwt. FED, FEEDER AND CALF PRICES Weekly Fed 775 lb. Steers 475 lb. Steers OK Combined and 5-MKT Fed

8 $ Per Cwt. 280 BOXED BEEF CUTOUT VALUE Choice Lbs., Carcass, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS C-P-62 04/06/15

9 $ Per Cwt SLAUGHTER COW PRICES Southern Plains, 85-90% Lean, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS C-P-35 04/06/15

10 $ Per Cwt. 135 BONING COW PRICES, Weekly OKC

11 $ Per Cwt RETAIL BEEF PRICE Monthly All Fresh Choice Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

12 CATTLE INVENTORIES

13 Mil. Head 140 JANUARY 1 TOTAL CATTLE INVENTORY U.S., Annual : 89.8 million head +1.4 % Data Source: USDA-NASS C-N-01 09/05/14

14 U.S. Cattle Inventory January % Change 1000 Head 1000 Head All Cattle and Calves Beef Cows Dairy Cows Beef Replacements Dairy Replacements Feeder Supply Cattle on Feed Calf Crop

15 Regional Change in Beef Cow Herd January 1, % -1.0% +3.9% +0.8% +3.0% +1.1% -2.4% +6.2% +1.4% U.S. +2.1% +3.1% +0.4% -0.5% +0.8%

16 Regional Share of Beef Cow Herd January 1, % 14.6% 2.5% 4.1% 12.3% 1.2% 4.4% 25.5% 7.0% 3.9% 6.1% 7.0% 3.9% U.S million head

17 Change in Beef Cow Inventory, January 1, % U.S. Ave., -9.0 % -25.3% -8.8% +1.7% -5.8% -12.5% +9.0% -5.3% +2.8% -11.5% +8.3, % -2.2% -7.9% -1.5% -7.3% -1.2, % -5.7%, % -8.9% +3.8% -10.7% -6.3% -4.9% -4.1% +3.7% -21.4% -16.6% -1.4% -2.2% -16.4% -7.4% -16.3% +12.7% +0.0% -10.3% -3.6%

18 Percent Change in Pasture Acreage, % -3.0% -1.6% -1.1% +0.2% -5.6% -2.4% +2.6% +0.30% +0.2% U.S. Ave., -3.6 % -5.7% -4.9% -3.8% -7.2% -4.4% -1.4% -31.0% -15.9% -21.2% -2.6% -11.5% -18.9% -9.6% -9.9% -1.4% -20.8% -8.7% -19.0% -23.6% -15.1% -14.8% -16.6% -9.7% -23.5% +5.8%

19 Beef Cow Inventory by Cycle U.S., January 1 Mil. Head Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

20 Mil. Head 7.0 HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS January 1, U.S % Data Source: USDA-NASS C-N-38 01/30/15

21 Thou. Head HEIFER SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS C-S-13 04/03/15

22 Thou. Head 90 BEEF COW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS C-S-34 04/03/15

23 Heifer % 20% 19% 18% HEIFER RETENTION AND COW CULLING as % of January 1 Cow Herd Average: Heifer % = 17.2 Culling % = 9.7 Culling % 13% 12% 11% 17% 10% 16% 9% 15% 8% 14% % Heifers Proj Cow Culling Proj Analysis by Derrell Peel Data Source: USDA-NASS

24 JANUARY 1 BEEF COW INVENTORY U.S., Annual Mil. Head Analysis by Derrell Peel Data Source: USDA-NASS 24 Dec 2014

25 Mil. Head JANUARY 1 FEEDER CATTLE SUPPLIES Residual, Outside Feedlots, U.S Data Source: USDA-NASS C-N-30 01/30/15

26 FEED AND FORAGE SITUATION

27

28

29 1000 Tons OKLAHOMA ALL HAY STOCKS December

30 Other Hay Production Tons Per Beef Cow Oklahoma

31 Oklahoma Hay Use per Beef Cow tons/cow 1,740 lbs tons/cow 4,220 lbs Why 2,480 lbs of extra hay needed per cow? Bigger cows Does not account for increased hay use (maybe 20%) Should they be bigger? What size cow is most efficient? Wasted Hay (maybe 40 %) 50% storage and feeding losses Longer Feeding Time (maybe 40 %) days extra feeding

32 Bil. Bushels 16 US ANNUAL CORN PRODUCTION Crop Year Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC G-NP-07 03/31/15

33 Bil. Bushels US CORN DISAPPEARANCE AND STOCKS Crop Year Feed & Residual Food, Seed & Industrial Exports Stocks Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC G-NP-12 03/31/15

34 $ Per Bushel 7.00 NATIONAL AVERAGE CORN PRICE Crop Year, Received by Farmers Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC G-NP-03 03/31/15

35 CATTLE SLAUGHTER AND BEEF PRODUCTION

36 Mil. Head CATTLE ON FEED US Total, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2009/ Data Source: USDA-NASS C-N-10 03/20/15

37 Mil. Head 2.1 FED CATTLE MARKETINGS US Total, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2009/ Data Source: USDA-NASS C-M-11 03/20/15

38 Mil. Head 2.5 FEEDLOT PLACEMENTS US Total, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2009/ Data Source: USDA-NASS C-N-08 03/20/15

39 $ Per Cwt CHOICE STEER PRICE vs BREAKEVEN Cattle Feeding, S. Plains, Monthly Latest Data: March Steer Price Breakeven Projected Breakeven Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-21 04/03/15

40 $ Per 1000 lbs 250 AVERAGE RETURNS TO CATTLE FEEDERS Feeding 725 Lb. Steers. S. Plains, Monthly Latest Data: March Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-22 04/03/15

41 Thou. Head 725 CATTLE SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS C-S-08 04/03/15

42 Pounds 840 CATTLE DRESSED WEIGHT Federally Inspected, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS C-S-18A 04/03/15

43 Pounds STEER DRESSED WEIGHT Federally Inspected, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS C-S-18 04/03/15

44 Mil. Pounds BEEF PRODUCTION Federally Inspected, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS M-S-18 04/06/15

45 Mil. Head BEEF PRODUCTION vs. BEEF COW INVENTORY Inventory on January 1, U.S. Bil. Pounds 28 Commercial Beef Production 27 Beef Cow Inventory Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC and Derrell Peel Forecast

46 Beef Demand

47 2014/2015 Meat Production and Consumption Production Million lbs. Million lbs. Million lbs. Consumption Per Capita Consumption Change % Retail Lbs. % Beef Pork Broilers

48 RETAIL PRICE RATIOS Monthly Beef/Pork Beef/Broiler Pork/Broiler Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

49 Bil. Pounds 6.8 COMMERCIAL BEEF PRODUCTION US, Quarterly JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC Avg. 2009/ Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC M-S-01 03/30/15

50 Cents Per Pound 650 RETAIL BEEF PRICE All Fresh, Monthly JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Avg Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & USDA-ERS M-P-11 03/24/15

51 Cents Per Pound WHOLESALE BEEF RIBEYE PRICES Boneless, Light, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS M-P-21 04/06/15

52 Cents Per Pound 750 WHOLESALE BEEF LOIN STRIP PRICES Boneless 0x1, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS 04/06/15

53 Cents Per Pound 1400 WHOLESALE BEEF FULL TENDER PRICES Musl-On, 5 Pounds and Up, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS M-P-23 04/06/15

54 Cents Per Pound 350 WHOLESALE BEEF CHUCK PRICES Boneless 2 Piece, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS 04/06/15

55 Cents Per Pound WHOLESALE BEEF BOTTOM ROUND PRICES Pounds, Weekly 150 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS M-P-22 04/06/15

56 Cents Per Pound WHOLESALE BONELESS BEEF PRICES Fresh, 90% Lean, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS M-P-24 04/06/15

57 Cents Per Pound 170 WHOLESALE BONELESS BEEF PRICES Fresh, 50% Lean, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS M-P-25 04/06/15

58 Mil. Pounds 525 PORK PRODUCTION Federally Inspected, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS M-S-19 04/06/15

59 Bil. Pounds COMMERCIAL PORK PRODUCTION US, Quarterly JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC Avg. 2009/ Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC M-S-06 03/30/15

60 Cents Per Pound 440 RETAIL PORK PRICE Monthly JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Avg Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & USDA-ERS M-P-05 03/24/15

61 Cents Per Pound 160 WHOLESALE HAM PRICES Trimmed Selected, Pounds, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS M-P-27 04/06/15

62 Cents Per Pound 200 WHOLESALE PORK LOIN PRICES ¼ Inch Trim, Vacuum Sealed, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS M-P-28 04/06/15

63 Cents Per Pound 225 WHOLESALE PORK BELLY PRICES Skin-on, Pounds, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS M-P-29 04/06/15

64 Cents Per Pound 175 WHOLESALE PORK TRIMMING PRICES Fresh, 72% Lean, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS M-P-30 04/06/15

65 Cents Per Pound 230 WHOLESALE PORK SPARERIB PRICES Trimmed, Light Poly, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS M-P-31 04/06/15

66 Mil. Pounds 500 US PORK EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS I-N-30 04/03/15

67 Bil. Pounds 6.0 US PORK EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Annual Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-05 03/11/15

68 Mil. Lbs 1040 BROILER PRODUCTION Federally Inspected, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS P-S-20 04/01/15

69 Bil. Pounds 11.0 RTC BROILER PRODUCTION US, Quarterly JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC Avg. 2009/ Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC M-S-30 03/30/15

70 Mil. Pounds 700 US BROILER EXPORTS RTC Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS I-N-50 04/03/15

71 Bil. Pounds US BROILER EXPORTS RTC, Annual Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-52 03/11/15

72 Cents Per Pound 125 BROILER PRICES National Composite, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS P-P-01 04/06/15

73 Cents Per Pound WHOLESALE CHICKEN BREAST PRICES Skinless/Boneless, Northeast, Truckload, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS P-P-02 04/06/15

74 Cents Per Pound 75 WHOLESALE CHICKEN LEG PRICES Northeast, Truckload, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS P-P-03 04/06/15

75 Cents Per Pound 225 WHOLESALE CHICKEN WING PRICES Northeast, Truckload, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS P-P-07 04/06/15

76 Cents Per Pound 205 RETAIL CHICKEN PRICE Broiler Composite, Monthly JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Avg Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & USDA-ERS M-P-12 03/24/15

77 INTERNATIONAL TRADE

78 Mil. Pounds 270 US BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS I-N-16 04/03/15

79 Mil. Pounds 80 US BEEF EXPORTS TO JAPAN Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS I-N-37 04/03/15

80 Mil. Pounds US BEEF EXPORTS TO CANADA Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS

81 Mil. Pounds US BEEF EXPORTS TO MEXICO Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS

82 Mil. Pounds 35 US BEEF EXPORTS TO SOUTH KOREA Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS

83 Mil. Pounds 45 US BEEF EXPORTS TO HONG KONG Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS

84 Bil. Pounds 3.0 US BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Annual Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-06 03/11/15

85 Mil. Pounds 325 US BEEF AND VEAL IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS I-N-15 04/03/15

86 Mil. Pounds 70 US BEEF IMPORTS FROM CANADA Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS I-N-26 04/03/15

87 Bil. Pounds 4.0 US BEEF AND VEAL IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Annual Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-12 03/11/15

88 Thou. Head 2000 CATTLE IMPORTS FROM CANADA AND MEXICO Annual Mexico Canada Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-13 02/06/15

89 $ Per Cwt STEER HIDE AND OFFAL VALUE Live Animal Basis, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS C-P-39 04/06/15

90 $ Per Cow ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF RETURNS Returns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC C-P-66 02/08/15

91 $ Per Cwt AVERAGE ANNUAL CATTLE PRICES Southern Plains lb Steer Calves lb Feeder Steers Fed Steers Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC C-P-06 02/08/15

92 The Weekly Newsletter From OSU Animal Science and Agricultural Economics Send to

93

94 Heifer Discounts Percent Less Than Steer Price Oklahoma, Combined Auctions JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC lb lb lb

95 Heifer Discounts Percent Less Than Steer Price JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC lb lb lb lb.

96 Heifer Discounts Percent Less Than Steer Price JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC lb lb lb lb.

97 Heifer Discounts Percent Less Than Steer Price JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC lb lb lb lb.

98 Heifer Discounts Percent Less Than Steer Price, First Quarter lb lb lb lb lb lb lb. January February March

99 Heifer Discounts Percent Less Than Steer Price, Second Quarter lb lb lb lb lb lb lb. April May June

100 Heifer Discounts Percent Less Than Steer Price, Third Quarter lb lb lb lb lb lb lb. July August September

101 Heifer Discounts Percent Less Than Steer Price, Fourth Quarter lb lb lb lb lb lb lb. October November December

102 $ Per Pound BEEF PRICE-QUANTITY RELATIONSHIP Annual, Retail Weight, Deflated Choice Retail Price Pounds Per Capita Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & USDA-ERS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC C-P-65 11/06/14

103 $ Per Pound BEEF PRICE-QUANTITY RELATIONSHIP Annual, Retail Weight, Deflated All Fresh Retail Price Pounds Per Capita 89 Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & USDA-ERS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC C-P-65A 11/06/14

104 Retail and Wholesale Price by Quality Relationships Price Ratio Ch/Sel Ch/All Fresh Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

105 Retail to Wholesale Choice Price Ratio Price Ratio Ch Ret/Ch Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

106 Retail to Wholesale Price Ratio Price Ratio Ch Ret/Ch All Fresh/Sel Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

107 Choice Boxed Beef to Fed Price Ratio Price Ratio Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

108 Fed Price to Feeder Price Ratio Price Ratio Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

109 Feeder to Calf Price Ratio Price Ratio Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

110 Index 1.06 CATTLE SEASONAL PRICE INDEX Oklahoma, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec lb Steers lb Steers Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

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