Steel Market Outlook. AM/NS Calvert

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1 Steel Market Outlook AM/NS Calvert

2 Agenda Economic indicators Key steel consuming markets and forecasted demand Steel consumptions trends Global steel markets and raw materials Comments on trade 1

3 U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) From 2016 Real GDP Growth vs. Prior Years , Forecast Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; IHS November 2016 % Annual GDP Growth 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% 4.1% % % % % % % % % % % % % % 2.4% % % % -2.8% -4.0% 2

4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; Oxford Economics Oct 2017 % Annual GDP Growth 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% 4.1% % % % % % % % % % 2.5% % % % % 2.6% % % 2.6% % - The economy is improving in 2017 and 2018 after a weak Primary drivers of growth will be improvement in consumer spending and business spending as business confidence has improved significantly in Improving markets in the EU and Asia will also help USA growth. 3

5 Industrial Production Index (IP) from 2016 Percent Change in Index vs. Prior Years , Forecast Source: U.S. Federal Reserve Board; base year for index 2012: November IHS forecasts. 6.0% 5.7% % Annual Growth 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% 4.0% % 0.2% % % % % 2.7% % % 2.8% 1.9% % % % 1.1% % -10.0% -12.0% -11.4% 4

6 Industrial Production Index (IP) Sources: U.S. Federal Reserve Board; Oxford Economics Oct 2017 forecast % Annual Growth 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% 4.0% % 0.2% % % % % 2.7% % % % 2.9% % % % % 1.7% % % -12.0% -11.5% Business spending is increasing, supported by: - Improvements in business confidence - Improvements in US exports - Increased spending for labor productivity as the labor market tightens 5

7 Steel Consuming Markets The ArcelorMittal Orbit

8 Auto US Auto Sales (millions of units) North American Auto Production (millions of units) Auto sales are soft because all pent up demand from the recession has been used up, both on the retail side and the fleet side of the market, interest rates are increasing, a large number of good used vehicles are coming off lease, the OEMs are less aggressive with incentives than expected, and there is a lack of new launches compared to previous years. The major drivers for sales now are replacement and an expanding economy. Fortunately the fleet in very old with the average vehicle on the street just over 11.5 years old. Therefore a lot of replacement is needed. Low gasoline prices continue to increase demand for trucks to an extent that is surprising analysts. Truck market share finished 2016 at 62% and through June 2017 it has increased even more to 63%. Recovery in the housing market is also contributing to the strong market for trucks. 7

9 Construction Put-in-Place Source: FMI Construction Outlook Residential buildings Nonresidential buildings billion dollars (left) % change (right) Nonbuilding structures Residential construction spending increased 5% in 2016, slower than in each of the previous four years. FMI expects growth to proceed at a similar pace in 2017 and Nonresidential building construction spending increased 6% in 2016, also slower than in recent years, and is projected by FMI to post similar-sized gains during the forecast horizon. 8 Nonbuilding construction is seen averaging 5% growth in 2017 and

10 USA Energy Market Steel Demand (millions of tons) line pipe [VALUE] OCTG [VALUE] Preston optimistic case for 2017 was 8.2m tons Source: Preston Pipe and Tube Report, November 2017 Totals:

11 U.S. Service Center Data: Carbon Flat Roll Shipments, Inventory, and Months-on-Hand Shipments Service Center Monthly Shipments and Inventory 2,600 Shipments Inventory 2,500 2,400 2,300 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1, Inventory 6,400 6,200 6,000 5,800 5,600 5,400 5,200 5,000 4,800 4,600 4,400 4, Months on Hand MOH LT Average

12 Steel markets direction in 2017 & 2018 Auto Residential Construction Non-residential Construction Machinery Appliance Infrastructure Auto growth is in Mexico in USA market is flat. Non-res construction will add about 500k in After being negative in 2015 and 2016 energy activity will see positive demand in 2017 & Steel inventories started 2017 at low levels, are rebuilding this year, and will continue to rebuild in Energy Steel Inventories Source: AMUSA analysis

13 USA apparent steel consumption Short tons (in millions) % change % %* % % % % *About 3 million tons of the 2014 increase was an inventory overbuild due to a late year surge in imports.

14 Steel consumption trends AM/NS Calvert

15 Weekly US raw steel production Capacity utilization 100% 95% 90% As of 11/11/ % 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% Weekly Utilization Source: American Iron & Steel Institute

16 Average Daily Shipment Rate: Y/Y % Change Flat Roll Plate Pipe & Tube 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% Jan 2012 Apr Jul Oct Jan 2013 Apr Jul Oct Jan 2014 Apr Jul Oct Jan 2015 Apr Jul Oct Jan 2016 Apr Jul Oct Jan 2017 Apr Jul Shipments Flat Roll Plate Pipe & Tube Jan-Sep ,530 2,494 1,781 Jan-Sep ,896 2,632 1,687 Diff: Tons Diff: % 2% 6% -5%

17 U.S. Flat Roll Imports and Import % of ASC (Carbon Only) Imports (short tons) Import Share of ASC Import % of ASC 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Annual Average (Import % of ASC) 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Oct Sep 2014 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 Jan Feb Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Apr May Sep Total Monthly Imports (1000s of s.tons) Nov Dec Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Jan Feb Mar Jun Jul Aug Year YTD (Sept) Average Import % of ASC 14% 21% 21% 18% 18%

18 Steel Production and Apparent Demand Source: AISI, U.S. Department of Commerce Million Net Tons Domestic Shipments nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% Q/Q % increase Million Net Tons Finished Imports nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q/Q % increase -10% -20% Million Net Tons Exports nd3rd4th 1st2nd3rd4th 1st2nd3rd4th 1st2nd3rd % 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% Q/Q % increase Million Net Tons Apparent Consumption (ASU) nd3rd4th1st2nd3rd4th1st2nd3rd4th1st2nd3rd % 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% Q/Q % increase

19 USA Apparent Steel Consumption million of short tons Drop in ASC in select recessions % % % % % Source: AISI, AM Marketing

20 Manufacturing and Indirect Steel Trade Deficits Sources: U.S. Census (manufacturing trade deficit in $ billions); AISI (indirect steel trade deficit in net tons) $ Billion Net Annual Trade $0 -$100 -$200 -$300 -$400 -$500 -$600 -$700 -$800 -$900 -$1,000 U.S. Manufacturing Trade Deficit Source: U.S. Census *2017 annualized based on data through July 50% 48% 51% 50% 49% 46% 45% 43% ROW (300) (348) (337) (339) (389) (446) (476) (511) China (298) (325) (349) (341) (374) (387) (392) (377) The U.S. manufacturing trade deficit is projected at $868 billion in 2017 (based on 7 months of data annualized), a increase of $2 billion from The U.S. indirect steel trade deficit posted another sizable increase in 2016, climbing to 23.9 million net tons from 21.4 million net tons in In 2016, China accounted for well over one-third (35.6%) of the total U.S. indirect steel trade deficit. Indirect Steel Deficit Million Net Tons U.S. Indirect Steel Trade Deficit Source: AISI 53% 47% 47% 47% 42% 38% 36% ROW (8.0) China

21 Global Market Outlook & Raw Materials AM/NS Calvert

22 Global Steel Demand WSA - Global Apparent Steel Consumption million metric tons ASC ASC % Change Y/Y % Change Y/Y WSA - Global ASC Growth Forecast by Region % Change Y/Y 2017f 2018f 2,300 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, , % , , % -6.1% ,151 1, % , % , % , % , % -2.6% , f 1, % 7.0% 2017f 1, f 1, % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% NAFTA EU28 CIS C&S America* China Global 4.9% 2.5% 3.6% 2.5% 12.4% 7.0% 1.2% 1.4% 3.8% 4.7% 0.0% 1.6% * Central and South America Source: World Steel Association Short Range Outlook (Oct 2017)

23 Steelmaking Raw Material Input Costs Averages and 2017 YTD All charts in $ per metric ton except for Scrap #1 Busheling Midwest Scrap ($/GT) Iron Ore 62% Delivered to China Premium Hard Coking Coal FOB DBCT* $395 $350 $333 $239 $236 $182 $184 $141 $97 $56 $58 $71 $62 $117 $ YTD Oct YTD Oct YTD Oct 17 Source: MBR 22

24 Coking Coal MBR Jan YTD Coking Coal Price Premium Hard Coking Coal $/tonne FOB DBCT $350 HCC 2017 Average $ $ $200 $ $ $50 Source: MBR Jan- 16 Feb- 16 Mar- 16 Apr- 16 May- 16 Jun- 16 Jul- 16 Aug- 16 Sep- 16 Oct- 16 Nov- 16 Dec- 16 Aug- Sep Jan- 17 Feb- 17 Mar- 17 Apr- 17 May- 17 Jun- 17 Jul- 17

25 Summary In 2017 and 2018 steel markets will expand after 2 years of contracting Energy is a major contributor of the improvement Consumer confidence and business confidence are surging since the election Markets are anticipating the administration s policies will continue support a strong revival of industrial markets 2016 decisions on trade will continue to limit the impact of imports...but Raw materials will remain volatile for the next several years Unlike the last few years the risk is more to the upside than the down side 24

26 Trade 232 TPP NAFTA 25

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