Current Hawaii Economic Conditions. Eugene Tian

Transcription

1 Current Hawaii Economic Conditions Eugene Tian Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism At the PATA/TTRA 2016 Annual Outlook & Economic Forecast Forum February 3, 2016

2 Positive Signs in the Economy Overall, Hawaii s economy is on a normal growth path Labor market will continue to improve in 2016 Construction industry will continue to expand in 2016 Hawaii s economy will grow at the similar rate as the nation in 2016 between 2.0% and 2.5% Hawaii s unemployment rate will still be better than the nation in 2016

3 Challenges in the Economy Economic slowing down in most of the countries worldwide Many Hawaii industries are still recovering Hawaii and Kauai Counties are still recovering Unemployment due to economic reasons is still high Air seat growth significantly slowing down and will lead visitor industry growth slowing down Construction industry momentum is weakening Reduction in military presence

4 Presentation Layout A Review on Economic Growth Labor Market Construction and Real Estate Tourism Military

5 A Historical Review of Hawaii s Economic Growth Annual average growth, % Indicator 30 years, years, Real GDP Real personal income Honolulu inflation rate Non-Ag wage and salary jobs Unemployment rate 1/ Visitor arrivals by air Real visitor expenditures 2/ / Average of 30 years, / Deflated by Honolulu CPI.

6 Many of the Economies of Hawaii Visitor Origin Countries Will Experience Slowing Down USA Canada Japan S. Korea Hong Kong Taiwan China United Kingdom Germany France Eurozone Australia Brazil Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators, January 10, 2016

7 Hawaii s economy has been following the U.S. in the most recent two business cycles Real GDP growth, % change from previous year 8.0% 6.0% 8.3 years 10.7 years 7.6 years United States 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% Hawaii -4.0% -6.0% Source: US BEA, DBEDT, NBER, and Blue Chip Economic Indicators

8 Personal Income Growth: U.S. and Hawaii 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% Hawaii 10.0% 8.0% United States 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

9 Total Job Growth: U.S. and Hawaii Total jobs including payroll jobs and proprietors, both full-time and part-time 6.0% 5.0% Hawaii 4.0% 3.0% United States 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

10 U.S. and Japanese Visitor Arrivals to Hawaii: ,000,000 US Japanese 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, Source: HVB, DBEDT, and HTA

11 Labor Market

12 Statewide Labor Force, Employment, and payroll Job Count Reached Record High Levels in , ,000 Labor Force Employment Jobs 600, , , , , ,

13 For Job Count, Honolulu and Maui Counties Have Fully Recovered From Great Recession But Hawaii and Kauai Counties Are Still Recovering (% recovery from December 2007) Honolulu Maui Hawaii Kauai Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Source: DILR and calculations by DBEDT

14 Unemployment Rate % Honolulu State of Hawai'i United States December / United States 4.8% Hawai i 2.9% Honolulu 2.7% Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics * Not seasonally adjusted. 8

15 In 2015, unemployment claims dropped 18.4% Comparison of Initial Unemployment Claims 3,000 2,500 Number of Claims 2,000 1,500 1, Source: Hawaii DLIR

16 Statewide Job Count Changes: 2014 Hawaii Gained 6,750 Payroll Jobs in 2014 Professional & Business Services 2,400 State & local gov. 1,833 Food Services & Drinking Places 1,150 Health Care & Social Assistance Accommodation Nat. Resources, Mining, Constr. Transp., Warehousing, Util Financial Activities Manufacturing Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Retail Trade Wholesale Trade 0 33 Other Services Information Educational Services Federal gov (1,000) (500) ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Source: Hawaii State Department of Labor and Industrial Relations

17 Hawaii Gained 9,500 Payroll Jobs in 2015 Health Care & Social Assistance Nat. Resources, Mining, Constr. 1,800 1,900 Food Services & Drinking Places Retail Trade 1,700 Statewide Job Count Changes: First 4 months of 2015 Professional & Business Services 1,300 1,600 Transp., Warehousing, Util. Other Services Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Financial Activities Wholesale Trade Information Educational Services Manufacturing Accommodation State & local Government Federal Government , ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Source: Hawaii State Department of Labor and Industrial Relations

18 Hawaii Industrial Winners Percent of Jobs Compared with December Health Care Professional Services Food Services Art & Entertainment Other Services 120 % of the December 2007 level Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Source: DLIR

19 Hawaii Industrial Losers Percent of Jobs Compared with December % change in job count Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Transporation & Warehousing Information Finance Education Services Source: DLIR

20 % Unemployment Rate Due to Economic Reasons Difference between U6 and U Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

21 Construction and Real Estate

22 Private Construction Continues Recovering 12-Month Moving Average of Building Authorization Components* 500, ,000 Additions & Alterations Commercial & Industrial Residential 400, ,000 $ Thousands 300, , , , ,000 50,000 0 *Additions and Alterations and Commercial & Industrial data do not include Kauai. All data through December 2015 Source: County building departments and U.S. Census Bureau

23 Real Estate Sales (% change 2014 to 2015) Single Family Homes Condo Homes Island Closed sales Median price Closed sales Median price Honolulu 5.2% 3.7% 4.5% 2.9% Maui 15.0% 2.0% 0.0% -1.0% Hawaii 6.5% 4.3% 0.8% -1.8% Kauai 4.5% 15.1% 10.1% 7.1% Source: Hawaii Information Service, the Honolulu Board of Realtors, and Realtors Association of Maui.

24 2015 Home Median Prices Island Single Family Homes Condo Homes Honolulu $700,000 $360,000 Maui $580,000 $410,000 Hawaii $328,500 $275,000 Kauai $613,500 $370,000 Source: Hawaii Information Service, the Honolulu Board of Realtors, and Realtors Association of Maui.

25 Tourism Industry

26 Diversification of Visitor Market Region 2006 Arrivals % of Total 2015 Arrivals % of Total US Mainland 5,173, ,307, Japan 1,362, ,499, Canada 280, , Australia 117, , China 54, , Korea 37, , Europe 106, , Latin America 19, , Others 375, , Total 7,528, ,533, Source: DBEDT and HTA

27 Visitor Arrivals and Expenditures Millions Visitor Arrivals (1) Calendar Year Millions Visitor Expenditures (1) $20,000 $15,000 $11,066 $12,158 $14,365 $14,521 $14,943 $15,417 $15,964 $10,000 $5,000 $ Calendar Year Source: HTA and DBEDT (1) 2015 and 2016 figures are projections 18

28 Given the outlook of air seats at the beginning of 2016, visitor arrivals by air might be a 0.3% increase in Total air seats 9,299,913 9,392,291 10,328,316 10,896,815 11,264,105 11,912,851 11,956,990 Total passengers 8,333,417 8,504,757 9,198,738 9,332,485 9,693,318 10,076,950 10,115,614 Load factor 89.6% 90.6% 89.1% 85.6% 86.1% 84.6% 84.6% Visitors by air 6,916,894 7,174,397 7,867,143 8,003,474 8,183,671 8,533,978 8,557,809 Returning residents 1,416,523 1,330,360 1,331,595 1,329,011 1,233,208 1,542,972 1,557,804 % of visitors 83.0% 84.4% 85.5% 85.8% 84.4% 84.7% 84.7 Source: HTA

29 Military in Hawaii

30 Military Presence in Hawaii is the Highest Since WWII Active Duty Personnel in Hawai i 55,000 50,000 49,110 49,023 51,045 46,764 45,000 43,141 41,887 42,371 40,000 38,397 38,755 35,000 35,412 33,930 30,000 25,000 20, Source: U.S. Department of Defense.