INTERSECTIONS. Metro Denver 2016 Economic Forecast January 2016
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1 INTERSECTIONS Metro Denver 2016 Economic Forecast January 2016
2 Employment Intersections Employment growth and Great Recession recovery Industry clusters Average annual salary Photo Credit: istockphoto
3 Nonfarm Job Growth Rates Metro Denver 2015 Employment = 1.6 million 68K jobs lost ; 64K jobs added ; all jobs recovered early % 4% 3.6% 3.6% 3.2% 2.9% 2% 0% 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 1.9% e 2016f -2% -4% -6% United States Metro Denver Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2015e = DRP estimate; 2016f = DRP forecast
4 Texas cities recovered earliest, followed by Salt Lake City and Metro Denver 125 Employment Index, June 2007 = Austin Dallas Metro Denver Salt Lake City Portland Atlanta U.S. Phoenix Jun 2007 Jun 2008 Jun 2009 Jun 2010 Jun 2011 Jun 2012 Jun 2013 Jun 2014 Jun 2015 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
5 Key Metro Denver Industry Clusters Aerospace Aviation Bioscience Medical Devices & Diagnostics Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Broadcasting & Telecommunications Energy Fossil Energy Cleantech Financial Services Banking & Finance Investments Insurance Healthcare & Wellness IT/Software
6 Metro Denver Industry Clusters Source: Development Research Partners.
7 Metro Denver has highest average annual salary; Salt Lake City lowest Salary increased fastest in Portland and Salt Lake City $60,000 $55,000 $50,000 $45,000 Metro Denver Dallas Austin Atlanta Portland U.S. Phoenix Salt Lake City $40,000 $35, Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; QCEW average annual salary for all industries.
8 Population Intersections Unemployment rate Population growth Housing Transportation Photo Credit: John J. Kim, Chicago Tribune
9 Unemployment Rates (not seasonally adjusted) 12% 10% Metro Denver Total Labor Force = 1.6 Million United States Metro Denver 8% 6% 4.6% 6.2% 5.1% 4.8% 4% 4.8% 2% 3.8% 3.8% 3.5% 0% e 2016f Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2015e = DRP estimate; 2016f = DRP forecast
10 Metro Denver Annual Change in Population 75,000 65,000 55,000 45,000 35,000 25,000 15,000 5, Population = 3.12 Million Net Migration Natural Increase -5, Source: Colorado Division of Local Government, State Demography Office.
11 Consistent home sales activity expected 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 53,106 Metro Denver Existing Home Sales Closed 55,509 56,619 53,631 54,068 50,244 49,789 47,837 45,203 42,070 38,818 38,105 35,000 30,000 25, f Sources: Metrolist ( ); Denver Metro Association of REALTORS ( ). 2016f = DRP forecast
12 Metro Denver ranks in Top 20 For median home price $400 $350 $300 Median Home Prices (in thousands) $281 $310 $350 $368 $250 $231 $200 $150 $100 $50 $166 $197 United States $209 $222 $235 Metro Denver $ e 2016f Source: National Association of REALTORS. 2015e = DRP estimate; 2016f = DRP forecast
13 Metro Denver has highest median home price and fastest price increase Median Home Price Index, 2007 = Midyear 2015 Median home price in $000s Metro Denver $350.5 Austin $260.8 Dallas $203.9 Salt Lake City $252.7 Portland $302.1 U.S. $217.1 Atlanta $169.8 Phoenix $212.0 Source: National Association of REALTORS.
14 Metro Denver Apartment Vacancy Rates 10% 8% 6% 8.2% 7.0% 6.2% 6.6% 8.1% 5.9% 5.2% 4.7% 4.6% 4.6% 4.9% 4% 2% 0% e Source: Denver Metro Apartment Vacancy & Rent Survey. 2015e = DRP estimate
15 Metro Denver Apartment Rental Rates $1,400 All Apartment Types, Fourth Quarter Average $1,292 $1,200 $1,169 $1,000 $850 $860 $889 $875 $909 $932 $979 $1,042 $800 $600 $400 $200 $ Q 2015 Source: Denver Metro Apartment Vacancy & Rent Survey.
16 Multi family represents 43% of new construction in 2015, down from 58% in ,000 20,000 Metro Denver Building Permits* Multi-Family (5+ units) Single-Family Attached (2-4 units) Single-Family Detached (1 unit) 15,000 10,000 5, e 2016f * The Census Bureau tracks building permits by the number of housing units in the structure. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits. 2015e = DRP estimate; 2016f = DRP forecast
17 60 Dallas most congested, followed by Atlanta, Austin, and Portland Annual Hours of Delay per Auto Commuter Dallas Atlanta Austin Portland Phoenix Metro Denver U.S. Salt Lake City Source: Texas A&M Transportation Institute, 2015 Urban Mobility Scorecard.
18 Metro Denver working diligently to alleviate congestion issues FasTracks: 2014: W Line, Union Station 2016: Flatiron Flyer (Jan), A Line (Spring), B Line segment (Summer), G Line (Fall), R Line (Winter) 2018: North Metro 2019: Southeast extension DIA: Westin Hotel Public Transit Center C Concourse expansion
19 Questions? Development Research Partners West Belleview Avenue, Suite 100 Littleton, Colorado (303) Patricia Silverstein, President
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