Multidimensional Analysis

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1 Multidimensional Analysis of Macro Sustainability of Russia: New Methods for Measuring Progress Dr Stanislav Shmelev, Senior Research Fellow, Oxford University, UK Tel: OECD Forum Moscow, 2008

2 Russia is the largest country in the world with the total area square kilometres (over 6.5 million square miles). The territory of Russia spans through 11 times zones. Russia borders with Norway, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Poland, Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, China and North Korea by land, and with Sweden, Turkey, Japan and the USA by sea. Total population is about mln people, with about 72.9% urban population.

3 UN Framework Indicators of Sustainable Development Theme Sub-theme Indicator SOCIAL Equity Poverty Gini Index of Income Inequality Unemployment Unemployment Mortality Life Expectancy at Birth Population Population Change Population Growth Rate ENVIRONMENTAL Atmosphere Climate Change Emissions of Greenhouse Gases Fresh Water Water Quality BOD in Water Bodies ECONOMIC Economic Structure Economic Performance GDP per Capita Consumption and Production Patterns Energy Use Annual Energy Consumption per Capita INSTITUTIONAL Energy Use Waste Generation and Management Share of Consumption of Renewable Energy Resources Generation of Industrial and Municipal Solid Waste Institutional Capacity Science and Technology Expenditure on Research and Development as a Percent of GDP

4 Analysis of Sustainability Economic dimension Social dimension 4 1. Gini Index of income inequality 2. Unemployment rate 3. Life expectancy at birth 4. Population change 5. CO2 emissions 6. Water quality 7. Income 8. Energy consumption 9. Renewable sources of energy supply 10. Expenditure in R&D Environmental dimension

5 Economy ( ) Indicator GDP, annual changes, % Inflation, CPI, % Unemployment, % Starting in 1989, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (RSFSR), and successor Russian Federation, declined continuously until 1997, when a rise of 0.9 percent was recorded. The drop in output by century-end was about 42 percent a far steeper fall than was recorded during the Great Depression in the United States in the early 1930s. The GDP in amounted to 7,063 billion rubles ($250.5 billion at the average exchange rate of 28.2 rubles/dollar), and an estimated $1,143 billion at purchasing power parity GDP annual change, Russia, , % UN Economic Commission of Europe, Economic Survey of Europe, 2005, N2, Statistical Appendix

6 GDP per Capita Unemployment Rate Economy ( ) Annual Energy Consumption per Capita ,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 Share of Cons umption of Renew able Energy Res ourc es

7 Economy: GDP across sectors and regions Gross Regional Product, Russia, 2002, mln. Rub.

8 Economy and Society Earnings, Income Gini Index of Income Inequality, , Russia 0,45 0,4 0,35 0,409 0,381 0,375 0,381 0,399 0,394 0,396 0,398 0,4 Human Development Indicators 2003 Population living on less than 1$ per day ( ): 6.1% Population living on less than 2$ per day( ): 23.8% Population living on less than 4$ per day( ): 53% Population living below the median income: 20.1% Gini index: 45.6 UN Human Development Report 0,3 0,26 0, Poverty was halved from 1999 to 2003, UN Human Development Report, 2005

9 Economy and Society Economy and Society Life Expectancy at Birth , , , Adult mortality (per 1000), adult mortality risk, which is defined as the probability of dying between 15 and 59 years: Males: 464 Females: 168 It is the highest value of all countries in WHO European Region Life Expectancy at Birth (years) Female Male Year Births, Deaths, and Natural Increase in Population: 1960, ,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , ,000-1,000,000 Russia fell 48 places in world life expectancy ranking from 1990 to (UN Human Development Report, 2003). Population Births Deaths Natural Increase Year

10 Economy and Society Expenditure on Research and Development as a Percent of GDP 2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 0,

11 Sustainability Analysis Human Development Index, Russia, ,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 Human Development Index Life expectancy index Education index GDP index 0,

12 Sustainability Analysis Adjusted Net Saving, excluding PM10 damage, Russia, , % of GNI 10,00 5,00 0,00-5,00-10, Adjusted Net Saving, excluding PM10 damage -15,00-20,00

13 Sustainability Analysis: ASPID MCE: , GDP per capita, CO2 emissions, Life expectancy Current policy priorities

14 Sustainability Analysis MCE: , GDP per capita, CO2 emissions, Life expectancy More humanistic policy priorities

15 Sustainability Analysis MCE: , 8 criteria: Economic: GDP per capita, TPES per capita, Share of Renewables, Investment in R&D Environmental: CO2 emissions Social: Life expectancy; GINI, Unemployment Current policy priorities

16 Sustainability Analysis MCE: , 8 criteria: Economic: GDP per capita, TPES per capita, Share of Renewables, Investment in R&D Environmental: CO2 emissions Social: Life expectancy; GINI, Unemployment More humanistic policy priorities

17 Thank you University of Oxford

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