11 th Annual Oregon Economic Forum!

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1 11 th Annual Oregon Economic Forum! (almost) Beyond! Macroeconomics Portland, OR! October 16, 2014!

2 Expansion Continues! Five Years and More!! Recession Indicators Nonfarm Payrolls Real Personal Income Excluding Current Transfer Receipts Thousands SAAR, Billions of 2005 $ Industrial Production Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales Index 2007= SAAR, Billions of 2005 $

3 Cyclical Indicators Pointing Up! Industrial Indicators Industrial Production Manufacturers' New Orders Federal Reserve Board of Governors Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft Index 2007= Millions of Dollars ISM Manufacturing Light Weight Vehicle Sales 60 PMI Composite Index, Above 50 Indicates Expansion 22 Autos & Light Trucks Millions of Units

4 Consumers Still Spending! Household Spending Indicators Real Personal Consumption Spending Retail and Food Service Sales Excluding Autos and Gas Billions of 2005 Dollars Millions of $ Consumer Confidence and Spending Real Personal Disposable Income Sentiment, 1996= UMich Sentiment Real Personal Consumption, Y-o-Y % Change Real Personal Consumption, Y-o-Y % Change Billions of 2005 Dollars

5 Housing Remains a Weak Point! 2500 Privately Owned Housing Starts and Permits Thousands of Units, SAAR Starts Permits

6 Steady Improvement in Labor Markets! 11 Unemployment and Short-Run Natural Rate of Unemployment Percentage, September 2014 Fed Forecasts (Bars) and Trend NAIRU

7 Underemployment Still an Issue! Underemployment Indicators 7000 Employed Part-Time for Economic Reasons Thousands Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons 17.5 Percentage Unemployed 27 Weeks or Longer Not in Labor Force, Searched For Work and Available 50 % of Total Unemployed 3000 Thousands

8 Oregon Similar to Nation! Oregon Indicators Oregon Initial Jobless Claims Average Claims per Week 3500 Oregon Residential Permits 5-month moving average in black Claims Permits Employment Services Payrolls Number of Employees 42 Weekly Hours Worked, Manufacturing Production Workers Employees Hours

9 Oregon Similar to Nation! Oregon Indicators II Oregon Nonfarm Payrolls Oregon Labor Force 1800 Thousands 2000 Thousands Oregon Unemployment Rate Oregon House Price Index 12 Percent 500 1Q80=

10 Data Still in an Uptrend! 102 UO Index of Economic Indicators Probability of Oregon recession in gray 100 UO Index, 1997= Probability of Oregon Recession, %

11 Better, But Still Not Like the Past! Oregon Measure of Activity Oregon Measure of Economic Activity Real Oregon personal income less transfer payments in gray, % change Y-o-Y Real Personal Income Growth

12 Portland, However, Looking Good! Portland/Beaverton/Vancouver Economic Indicators Unemployment Rate Residential Housing Permits 12 Percentage of Labor Force 2500 Permits Civilian Labor Force Nonfarm Payrolls Employeed plus Unemployed 1075 Thousands of Employees

13 Portland, However, Looking Good! 2 Portland Metro Measure of Economic Activity Three-Month Moving Average in Black, US Recessions in Gray

14 Solid Recovery! 120 Job Recovery by MSAs With Population Between 1.8 and 3.5 Million Index 2007:12=100, Portland in Blue 115 Aus$n Las(Vegas

15 Recovery in Widespread! Portland/Beaverton/Vancouver MSA Employment by Sector Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services 170 Thousands of Employees 160 Thousands of Employees Leisure and Hospitality Services Computer Design and Related Services 110 Thousands of Employees 13 Thousands of Employees

16 Recovery Widespread! Portland/Beaverton/Vancouver MSA Employment by Sector Manufacturing Construction 150 Thousands of Employees 70 Thousands of Employees Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Financial Services 205 Thousands of Employees 72 Thousands of Employees

17 Real Incomes Rebounding! Portland Real Personal Income Millions of 2008 Dollars, PPP Adjusted

18 In Oregon, Income Not Just About Size! Per Capita Real Personal Income: Oregon Metro Areas 2008 Dollars, PPP Adjusted Portland Corvallis Medford Eugene Salem Bend

19 An Entrenched Equilibrium?! Per Capita Real Personal Income: Selected Metro Areas 2008 Dollars, PPP Adjusted Seattle Minneapolis Denver Austin Portland

20 An Entrenched Equilibrium?! 40 Computer Design and Related Services Thousands of Employees Seattle 15 Portland

21 An Entrenched Equilibrium?! 80 Computer Design and Related Services Thousands of Employees San Francisco 40 Seattle Portland

22 An Entrenched Equilibrium?! 40 Computer Design and Related Services Thousands of Employees 35 Average Pay = $105, Seattle 15 Portland 10 Average Pay = $93,

23 Oregon Business Conditions Index! Objec've: Develop a new data source to measure economic condi'ons in Oregon. Timeline: 4Q14 Begin collec'ng a list of ini'al par'cipants 1Q15/2Q15 Ini'ate the survey 3Q15 Begin repor'ng anecdotal evidence Begin repor'ng data

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26 Oregon Business Conditions Index! How can you help? Be willing to par'cipate in the survey! Only one respondent per firm (obviously) who with sufficient overview to report on general business condi'ons. Survey is confiden'al. We will need your informa'on to you the survey, but we will not collect informa'on to connect a survey to a par'cipant. Visit econforum.uoregon.edu to take a sample survey!

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