Commodity Market Outlook: Corn, Forage, Wheat & Cattle

Transcription

1 Commodity Market Outlook: Corn, Forage, Wheat & Cattle Stephen R. Koontz Professor & extension economist Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics Colorado State University Colorado March, 2016 Outline Long term Price Outlook Corn Forage Wheat Cattle Sheep & Lambs Others Short term Price Comments. General Economy I would love to stand here and tell you, $5.00 corn, $8.00 wheat and $3.00 calves for the rest of your life. But this is a competitive economy and agriculture is a competitive industry. 1

2 2

3 3

4 Summary High prices in were the result of Strong demand. Supply disruptions. World wide volatility but by underlying growth. Moving forward ?: Plentiful supplies of everything. Weak to little demand growth. Strong dollar. It s not the 1980 s but there are similarities. Weaker prices & margins. 4

5 5

6 6

7 7

8 Weekly Corn Contract $8.00 $5.00 The trading range for corn is $3.35-$4.50/bu. Except 8

9 9

10 DEC 2015 Corn Contract Blue was the correct trading range & green can happen again but not for long 10

11 Bottom line on corn basis: strong for as big as the crop was. Good demand and movement. Big weak basis in regions with excellent sorghum crop. 11

12 Forecast $ /bu DEC 2016 Corn Contract We will trade $3.75-$4.05 until there is a reason not to. We could move up to $4.10, $4.20, & $4.45 but Sell rallies 12

13 Corn Outlook Market price is where fundamentals say it should be. Acreage next year? Rotation with soybeans? Cash flow & debt? Demand? Trade? Storage? Basis? Price outlook $3.65 $4.00/bu. And we ve had the two big crops. Aggressive sales on any weather driven rally. $4.20 & $4.50. Weekly KC Wheat Contract 13

14 Monthly KC Wheat Contract 14

15 15

16 16

17 Bottom line on wheat basis: weak for the reduced acres. Poor demand and movement. JUL 2016 KC Wheat Contract Forecast $ /bu 17

18 Wheat Outlook World: Building stocks. U.S.: huge stocks but reduced acres. World weather? But soft exports due to strong dollar. Basis? Forecasts: JUL $5.00 with range $ /bu. And aligned with fundamentals. Aggressive $5.20 & $5.75. Likely storage opportunity into late

19 19

20 Mil. Tons 120 US ALL HAY STOCKS December Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center G-NP-22 08/12/15 Mil. Tons 30 US ALL HAY STOCKS May 1 (Beginning of Crop Year) Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center G-NP-21 08/12/15 20

21 PERCENT CHANGE ALL HAY ACRES ( ) U.S. Total: 1% Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS 2/2/2015 GL_GR310 Greeley, CO Thu Feb USDA-CO Dept of Ag Market News Colorado Hay Report Compared to the last week, hay movement light with prices steady on grass hay and lower quality alfalfa. Very little movement on Dairy quality alfalfa. Demand light. All prices reported are FOB at the stack or barn unless otherwise noted. Prices reflect load lots of hay. Northeast Colorado Areas Alfalfa Large Squares: Utility DEL. No reported quotes for all other classes of hay. Southeast Colorado Areas Alfalfa Small Squares: Premium ( per bale). Sorghum Sudan Round: Good No reported quotes for all other classes of hay. San Luis Valley Area No reported quotes for all other classes of hay. Southwest Colorado Areas Grass Small Squares: Premium (8.00 per bale, Certified Weed Free). Orchard Grass Small Squares: Premium (8.00 per bale). No reported quotes from all other classes of hay. Mountains and Northwest Colorado Areas No reported quotes for all other classes of hay. 21

22 Forage Outlook Plentiful except for high quality. Excellent hay: Alfalfa $150 $175/T. Grass $85 $100/T. Low quality hay: <$65 $85/T. Back to more small bales Other Crops Oilseeds: The one market with long term growth potential. Record large crop last year in S. Am. Sorghum: Superb crop last year. Growth will depend on feed use & exports. Millet: Domestic demand growth potential. Decreased acres but increased production. Malting barley: Excellent premiums past several years. Weather related but weather other places. Potatoes: Excellent production this year. Soft trade. Sugar: World versus domestic prices. Substantial long term world pressure on prices. Hops: This is the only commodity that I hear persistent discussion of limited availability 22

23 Weekly Live Cattle Contract This market is looking for a bottom trading range $ /cwt. $170 Monthly Live Cattle Contract 23

24 Weekly Feeder Cattle Contract This market will drift lower trading range $ /cwt. $240 Monthly Feeder Cattle Contract 24

25 Cattle Outlook Fed cattle market will trend down: Domestic demand was strong. International demand & trade are weak. Abundant supplies of competing meats. Feeder cattle and calf prices will weaken for the next several years: Herd building. 25

26 OCT 2015 Live Cattle Contract OCT 2015 Feeder Cattle Contract 26

27 Index Value 120 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX Annual, Using CPI 1990= Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center Index Value 120 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX First Quarter, Using CPI 1990= Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center 27

28 Index Value 120 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX Fourth Quarter, Using CPI 1990= Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center 1000 MT 6 US EXPORTS OF BEEF MUSCLE CUTS Weekly /4/14 7/5/14 1/10/15 7/11/15 1/9/16 Canada Japan Mexico Korean Rep. Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA APHIS Livestock Marketing Information Center 02/12/16 28

29 1000 MT 19 TOTAL U.S. EXPORTS OF BEEF MUSCLE CUTS Weekly /5/13 7/6/13 1/4/14 7/5/14 1/10/15 7/11/15 1/9/16 Data Source: USDA FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center 02/12/16 Mil. Pounds US BEEF AND VEAL IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center I-N-15 02/09/16 29

30 Mil. Pounds US BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center I-N-16 02/09/16 Mil. Pounds 200 US NET BEEF IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center I-N-31 02/09/16 30

31 Bil. Pounds 3.5 US BEEF AND VEAL NET IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Annual Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center I-N-28 02/09/16 Mil. Head JANUARY 1 TOTAL COW INVENTORY U.S., Annual Data Source: USDA NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center C-N-02A 02/01/16 31

32 Mil. Head 42 CALF CROP July Estimates, U.S., Annual = 34.3 Million Head +2.3 Percent Data Source: USDA NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center C-N-18B 02/01/16 Mil. Head 7.0 HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS January 1, U.S % Data Source: USDA NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center C-N-38 02/01/16 32

33 Mil. Head 6.0 HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS July 1, U.S % Data Source: USDA NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center C-N-37 02/01/16 PERCENT CHANGE IN CATTLE INVENTORY U.S., January Data Source: USDA NASS, Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center C-N-48 02/01/16 33

34 $ Per Cwt AVERAGE ANNUAL CATTLE PRICES Southern Plains lb Steer Calves lb Feeder Steers Fed Steers Data Source: USDA AMS, Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center C-P-06 02/12/16 $ Per Cow ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF RETURNS Returns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center C-P-66 02/12/16 34

35 $ Per Cow ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF COSTS Total Cash Cost Plus Pasture Rent, Annual Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center 02/12/16 Date LMIC Cattle Price & Quantity Forecasts % Change Production % Change Consumption Fed Cattle 7 800# Feeder 5 600# Calf 2015: VI $ $ $ $ $ $ : I $ $ $ : II $ $ $ : III $ $ $ : VI $ $ $ $ $ $ : I $ $ $ : II $ $ $ : III $ $ $ : VI $ $ $ $ $ $

36 OCT 2016 Live Cattle Contract OCT 2016 Feeder Cattle Contract 36

37 Input Market Outlook Summary Soft everything. Even land valuations Risks moderating. Softening fuel costs with no volatility Fertilizer Chemicals Supply industries remain operating undercapacity & unwilling to take risk. We haven t had this much cheap energy in a while. Let s see what happens. $150 Weekly Crude Oil Contract $35 $40-$60 37

38 38

39 39

40 40

41 Percent Change QTRLY GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) Real Dollar (2005) Change from Previous Quarter Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center 11/13/15 Percent 11.0 U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center 11/13/15 41

42 Index 120 Domestic U.S. Consumer Confidence Monthly, Index year 1966 = Jan 78 Jan 81 Jan 84 Jan 87 Jan 90 Jan 93 Jan 96 Jan 99 Jan 02 Jan 05 Jan 08 Jan 11 Jan 14 Data Source: Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Livestock Marketing Information Center 08/11/ /76 = So foreign buyers of our commodities face a 22% increase in prices before even they get a chance to buy the commodities. It s not as bad as in the early-2000 s or the entire 1980s. But it s worse than the Great Recession. 42

43 43

44 44

45 Weekly S&P 500 Index Contract 45

46 Trends Summary were due to demand growth & weatherrelated supply shocks. Caught up & recovered from both. Return to more normal prices & margins. Plentiful supplies & stocks of everything. Strong dollar & weak trade. Soft international economies. Cheaper energy & fertilizer & rent(?) & seed (??). Back to cost control knitting. Outlook Summary Corn: $ /bu. for 2016/17. Acres & weather? Hay: if you have a bidder then sell it Wheat: $ /bu. for next harvest. Cattle: A different kind of wow Fed: $ /cwt. Feeders: $ /cwt. Calves: $ /cwt. Sheep & Lamb follow beef & other meats. 46

47 Contact and Link Information 47