Energy Outlook Global and Domestic Trends and Challenges. Dr. John Caldwell Director of Economics, EEI 1

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Energy Outlook Global and Domestic Trends and Challenges. Dr. John Caldwell Director of Economics, EEI 1"

Transcription

1 Energy Outlook Global and Domestic Trends and Challenges Dr. John Caldwell Director of Economics, EEI 1

2 World GDP Growth Other Economies are Outpacing the U.S. Other, , 11% Africa, , 6% Latin America, , 9% Europe, , 21% Africa, , 7% Latin America, , 9% Other, , 10% Europe, , 12% U.S., , 13% Other Asia, , 11% India, , 5% Japan, , 6% China, , 13% U.S., , 18% Other Asia, , 12% India, , 11% China, , 24% Japan, , 2% Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook (GDP reported in billions of 2005 $)

3 Tectonic Shifts Between Now and 2030 Growth of the Global Middle Class Wider Access to Lethal and Disruptive Technologies Shift of Economic Power to the East and the South Unprecedented and Widespread Aging Urbanization Food and Water Pressures U.S. Energy Independence Source: Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, National Intelligence Council, December 2012

4 Potential Extreme Disruptive Events Severe Pandemic Much More Rapid Climate Change Euro/EU Collapse A Democratic or Economically Collapsed China A Reformed Iran Nuclear War or WMD/Cyber Attack Solar Geomagnetic Storms U.S. Global Disengagement Source: Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, National Intelligence Council, December 2012

5 U.S. Dollars (Billions) U.S. Dollars (Billions) U.S. Dollars (Billions) U.S. Dollars (Billions) U.S. Dollars (Billions) U.S. Dollars (Billions) Net Exports by Industry U.S., China, and Japan: 1992, 2002, and 2012 Iron and Steel Automotive Office Equipment Clothing Food Electronic Components Source: U.S. International Trade Commission 5

6 Industrial Output (2005$) Industrial Electricity Consumption (Gwh) U.S. Industrial Electricity Usage 3000 Peaked In 2000 U.S. Industrial Output and Electricity Consumption ,200, ,000, , , , Source: U.S. Federal Reserve and Energy Information Administration 200,000 0

7 Billions of 2005 Dollars U.S. Recession and Recovery at a Glance 13,800 13,600 13,400 13,200 13,000 12,800 12,600 12,400 12,200 Gross Domestic Product Unemployment 4.6% 5.8% 9.3% 9.6% 8.9% 8.1% S&P 500 1,477 1, ,140 1,268 1,379 New Home Sales Electricity Sales (bkwh) 776, , , , , ,000 3,765 3,733 3,597 3,754 3,750 3,692

8 GDP (2005$) Unemployment Rate (%) The Economic Recovery: A Large, Lingering Gap Remains U.S. GDP and Unemployment 16, ,000 Actual Unemployment Rate Potential GDP ,000 10,000 8,000 Actual GDP Natural Unemployment Rate 6% gap in economic output , , , Source: U.S. Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Congressional Budget Office

9 Energy Sales Growth and the Economy 20% 15% 10% Change in Electricity Usage Electricity Growth and Change in GDP: Change in GDP 5% 0% -5% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Change in Natural Gas Usage Natural Gas Growth and Change in GDP: Change in GDP Source: Energy Information Administration and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

10 The Recovery Challenge: Electricity Growth Continues to Slow... Electricity sales growth has been declining long before the recent recession. 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Period Sales Growth 50's 9.3% 60's 7.4% 70's 4.4% 80's 2.8% 90's 2.4% % -5% Source: Energy Information Administration 10

11 While the Future Trend for Natural Gas is Less Clear Natural gas consumption growth actually rebounded after deregulation in the late 1970s and 1980s. 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Period Sales Growth 50's 7.0% 60's 5.8% 70's -1.4% 80's -0.7% 90's 1.9% % -5% Source: Energy Information Administration 11

12 Distribution of proved gas reserves in 1992, 2002 and 2012 Percentage BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013 BP 2013

13 The Shale Gas Revolution What Does It Mean for the U.S. Energy Industry? 13

14 Jan-2000 Jul-2000 Jan-2001 Jul-2001 Jan-2002 Jul-2002 Jan-2003 Jul-2003 Jan-2004 Jul-2004 Jan-2005 Jul-2005 Jan-2006 Jul-2006 Jan-2007 Jul-2007 Jan-2008 Jul-2008 Jan-2009 Jul-2009 Jan-2010 Jul-2010 Jan-2011 Jul-2011 Jan-2012 Jul-2012 $/mmbtu A New Era for Natural Gas Prices 12 U.S. Wellhead Natural Gas Price Source: Energy Information Administration 14

15 Price ($/mmbtu) America s New Abundant, Low Cost Natural Gas Supply Should We Be Exporting It? Comparative Annual Natural Gas Prices U.S. (Henry Hub) European Union (Germany) Japan (LNG) Source: 2013 BP Statistical Review of World Energy DOE has already granted authorization to one LNG exporter (Sabine Pass). NERA Study indicates that exports will create net economic benefits. NG prices would rise, but NG producers and the coal sector would welcome this.

16 Tcf Real NG Price ($/Mcf) A Natural Gas Manufacturing Renaissance? U.S. Industrial Natural Gas Sales $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $0.00 Low, stable U.S. natural gas prices, competitive on a global scale, are bringing back gasfired manufacturing Positive Economic Impacts: First Wave: Fracking $87.5 billion in annual capital investment, doubling by end of decade 1.7 million jobs supported (direct and indirect) growing to 3 million by end of decade Second Wave: Return of gas-fired manufacturing lost in early 2000s (Dow Chemical predicts 55% gas sales growth by 2035) Third Wave: Lower chemicals and metals prices spur growth in manufacturing and consumer demand

17 Primary energy world consumption Million tonnes oil equivalent Coal Other Nuclear Natural Gas Liquids 0.9%/year BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012 BP EIA 2013 International Energy Outlook

18 Global Nuclear Power Growth Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2013

19 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2013

20 The U.S. Flight from Coal Generation from coal has declined 25% in the past 5 years Coal-fired generation in 2012 was less than in 1988 (but total electricity output has grown 50% during that timeframe) 9,300 MW of coal-fired generation was retired in 2012 This is the highest ever recorded in a single year Equivalent to previous five years of coal retirements combined Over 27,000 MW of coal-fired units scheduled for retirement during next three years

21 Renewable energy consumption/share of power by region Other renewables consumption by region Million tonnes oil equivalent Other renewables share of power generation by region Percentage BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013 BP 2013

22 Europe Has Led the Way in the Solar Expansion Boom... 70,000 Installed Photovoltaic Power (MW) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 Rest of World China U.S. Japan Other Europe France Spain Italy Germany Europe (74%) 10, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012 BP 2012

23 ... But China and the U.S. Have Led the Way on Wind Power 300,000 Installed Wind Turbine Capacity (MW) 250, , , ,000 50,000 Rest of World U.K. Italy France India Spain Germany U.S. China BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012 BP 2012

24 Gigawatts U.S. Renewable Generation Will Make Up 17% of Total Electric Power Sector Capacity by Municipal Waste Wood/Biomass Geothermal Solar Thermal Solar PV 100 Wind Hydropower 50 0 EIA 2013 Annual Energy Outlook

25 The Changing Resource Mix for U.S. Electricity Generation 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2,473 bill kwh 4,110 bill kwh 4,979 bill kwh ,519 1,402 1,847 1, Other Petroleum Renewables Nuclear Natural Gas Coal Numbers indicate electricity generated from each source in billions of kwh Source: Energy Information Administration (Projections for 2035 are from the EIA 2013 Annual Energy Outlook) 25

26 $/kwh $/mmbtu 2009 $/ton Long-Term U.S. Energy Price Projections Wellhead Natural Gas Coal Avg. Forecast Growth: 1.1%/year Electricity Avg. Forecast Growth: 0.4%/year Source: Energy Information Administration

27 What s Driving Grid Modernization? Aging Infrastructure Duration and frequency of power outages increasing 2% per year (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory) ASCE estimates investment gap of $57 billion in electric infrastructure through 2020 Environment National (FERC/DOE) vision of power from cleaner/decentralized sources 29 states have RPS programs; 17 with mandates/programs for solar and other DG Energy Autonomy DOD actively implementing islanding State net metering policies encourage customer self-generation Entrepreneurs are capitalizing on DG 27

28 Will Energy Efficiency Bring an End to Electricity Sales Growth in the U.S.? Impact of Energy Efficiency on Total U.S. Electricity Consumption Source: The Institute for Energy Efficiency, Factors Affecting Electricity Consumption in the U..S. ( ), December 2012.

29 Customer Preferences Five Forces of Change in the U.S. Energy Industry

30 An Industry in Transition Strategic Challenges May Reshape Industry Grid Modernization Who Will Provide Electricity, and How? The Future of Energy Demand More, Less, and From Where? Regulation How Will Federal/State Regulatory Policies Evolve? Environmental Policy How Will It Affect the Way that Energy is Produced, and the Cost of Energy? 30

31 Future Utility Business Models Will Be Driven by the Network Control Access Bypass Hardened Grid Cost-Based Open Access Subsidized Open Access Post- Modern Grid Central provider paradigm maintained Investments in reliability Minor inroads by 3 rd party providers Full cost recovery limits risk Proliferation of 3 rd party services Must find new earnings platforms Utility relegated to provider of last resort Reinvention required Passive Consumer Active Prosumer Centralized Decentralized Multiple Networks

32 Thank You! Questions? Contact: John Caldwell

The transition to sustainable energy

The transition to sustainable energy ATSE Symposium The transition to sustainable energy Peter Littlewood 8 Nov 2016 The changing world economy Index 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 Economies less energy intensive Electricity less

More information

Energy, Economy and Policy: A Glimpse at the 21 st Century

Energy, Economy and Policy: A Glimpse at the 21 st Century Gas Well Deliquification Workshop Denver, Colorado February, 2009 Energy, Economy and Policy: A Glimpse at the 21 st Century Scott W. Tinker Bureau of Economic Geology Jackson School of Geosciences The

More information

Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies

Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies Marine Terminal Management Training Program October 15, 2007 Long Beach, CA Paul Bingham Global Insight, Inc. 1 Agenda Economic

More information

Paul Bingham Managing Director, Global Trade and Transportation February 18, 2009

Paul Bingham Managing Director, Global Trade and Transportation February 18, 2009 Economic Outlook and Ports Paul Bingham Managing Director, Global Trade and Transportation February 18, 2009 The Outlook for Trade Depends on Goods Demand Integrated international supply-chains offer efficiencies

More information

Global growth prospects

Global growth prospects Global growth prospects Percent 6 Advanced Economies Emerging Markets and Developing Economies 5 4.9 5.0 4.7 4.7 4.5 4 4.3 4.3 3.7 3.7 3 2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.7 1 1.1 1.3 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

More information

Percent

Percent Outline Outline Growth is picking up Percent 6 Advanced economies Emerging and developing economies 5 4 4.9 5.0 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.7 3.7 3.7 3 2 2.0 2.3 1.6 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.7 1 1.1 1.3 0 2012 2013 2014 2015

More information

The U.S. Economic Outlook

The U.S. Economic Outlook The U.S. Economic Outlook Presented to: Maquiladora Industry Outlook Conference September 29 2006 Presented by: Patrick Newport Principal, U.S. Macroeconomic Service 781-301-9125 patrick.newport@globalinsight.com

More information

Opening address for dinner-debate

Opening address for dinner-debate Opening address for dinner-debate Mohammed Barkindo Acting for the OPEC Secretary General European Parliament Strasbourg, France 4 July 2006 1 Outline Importance of EU-OPEC Energy Dialogue Current oil

More information

Major Issues and Trends Facing the Port and Marine Transportation Industry

Major Issues and Trends Facing the Port and Marine Transportation Industry Major Issues and Trends Facing the Port and Marine Transportation Industry Presented to: AAPA Marine Terminal Management Training Program April 24, 2006 Charleston Riverview Hotel Charleston, SC - USA

More information

Steel: A Buyer s Market for the Worst of Reasons. John Anton Director, IHS Global Insight Steel Service August 2009

Steel: A Buyer s Market for the Worst of Reasons. John Anton Director, IHS Global Insight Steel Service August 2009 Steel: A Buyer s Market for the Worst of Reasons John Anton Director, IHS Global Insight Steel Service August 2009 The U.S. Recession Is Bottoming Out This recession has been the most severe of the postwar

More information

Airlines, the economy and air transport demand

Airlines, the economy and air transport demand Airlines, the economy and air transport demand Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 1 Returns for airlines investors lower this year;

More information

Shifts in Global Trade Patterns

Shifts in Global Trade Patterns Shifts in Global Trade Patterns Presented to: AAPA Shifting International Trade Routes and Planning for the Panama Canal Expansion January 23, 2008 Port of Tampa Presented by: Robert West Managing Director

More information

Outlook for Global Recovered Paper Markets

Outlook for Global Recovered Paper Markets Outlook for Global Recovered Paper Markets Latin American Conference August 2016 Kurt Schaefer VP, Fiber Hannah Zhao Senior Economist, Recovered Paper Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information

More information

Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division

Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division Economic Outlook March 212 Economic Policy Division Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 197 to Q4 211 Real

More information

North American Forging Shipment Forecast (Using FIA bookings information through December 2013)

North American Forging Shipment Forecast (Using FIA bookings information through December 2013) North American Forging Shipment Forecast 2014-2018 (Using FIA bookings information through December 2013) Percent Change Year Ago Best leading indicator combination for impression die bookings used to

More information

Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends. September 10, 2013

Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends. September 10, 2013 Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends September 10, 2013 The Freight Economy Washington continues to be a headwind on economic

More information

Oil Prices: Past, Present, & Future

Oil Prices: Past, Present, & Future Oil Prices: Past, Present, & Future Gulf Research Center November 23, 2005 A. F. Alhajji*, PhD Gulf Energy Program - Moderator Gulf Research Center Dubai, UAE *A. F. Alhajji, PhD is also George Patten

More information

Economic & Financial Market Outlook

Economic & Financial Market Outlook Economic & Financial Market Outlook BC Pension Forum March 1, 2013 Chris Lawless, Chief Economist Overview Global forces Recent economic performance ~ US, Europe, Japan, China ~ Other emerging markets

More information

US imports from emerging economies have grown rapidly

US imports from emerging economies have grown rapidly US imports from emerging economies have grown rapidly Ratio to GDP (current dollars) 0.07 US merchandise imports, 1978 2008 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 Industrial Non-OPEC other 0.01 0 OPEC = Organization

More information

U.S. Overview. Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013

U.S. Overview. Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013 U.S. Overview Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013 Uneven global economic recovery Annual real GDP growth projections (%) Projections 2013 2014 World 3.1 3.1 3.8 United States 2.2 1.7 2.7 Euro Area

More information

Energy Security: Markets and Policy

Energy Security: Markets and Policy Energy Security: Markets and Policy Pierre Noël EPRG, University of Cambridge Critical Infrastructure Conference, London, 20 April 2011 Contents Global Oil and the Middle East European Gas and Russia Japan

More information

MIDDLE EAST ENERGY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK IRAQ ENERGY FORUM 2017

MIDDLE EAST ENERGY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK IRAQ ENERGY FORUM 2017 MIDDLE EAST ENERGY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK IRAQ ENERGY FORUM 2017 2017 1 OVERVIEW OF GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS 2 Energy exports/imports (million tonnes) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

More information

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six plus years of moderate growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half

More information

Outline. Overview of globalization. Global outlook for real economic activity & inflation. Risks to the outlook

Outline. Overview of globalization. Global outlook for real economic activity & inflation. Risks to the outlook 2017 International Economic Outlook Everett Grant Research Economist Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas October 2017 The views expressed are those of the author and

More information

Global Containerboard Outlook

Global Containerboard Outlook Global Containerboard Outlook European Conference March 2018 Gleb Sinavskis Economist, European Paper Packaging Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information Gleb Sinavskis Economist, European Paper

More information

From Recession to Recovery

From Recession to Recovery From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM Moderator Michael Klowden, President and CEO, Milken Institute Speakers Mohamed El-Erian, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer, Pacific

More information

Global economic cycle has slowed

Global economic cycle has slowed Year-on-year % change Confidence index, 50= no change Global economic cycle has slowed 25% 70 20% International trade growth 65 15% 10% Industrial production growth 60 5% 55 0% 50-5% Business confidence

More information

The End of Hyper growth: Political and Economic Responses to a Slowing China

The End of Hyper growth: Political and Economic Responses to a Slowing China The End of Hyper growth: Political and Economic Responses to a Slowing China Barry Naughton IR/PS, UC San Diego 5 th Annual G2 at GW Conference October 12, 2012 Conclusions (Seriously) Forces that are

More information

The Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies

The Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies The Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Economist, PAGI Group, JLL (Port, Airport & Global Infrastructure) Agenda Where are we in the cycle? What are the barriers

More information

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six years of steady growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half Full

More information

COMMENTS ON THE INDUSTRIAL POLICY: THE CASE OF TURKEY

COMMENTS ON THE INDUSTRIAL POLICY: THE CASE OF TURKEY MINISTRY OF DEVELOPMENT, REPUBLIC OF TURKEY COMMENTS ON THE INDUSTRIAL POLICY: THE CASE OF TURKEY Umut GÜR Head of Department of Industry 10 May 2013 Panel on Industrial Policies, TEPAV, Ankara 1 1923

More information

Sulphur Market Outlook

Sulphur Market Outlook Sulphur Market Outlook Meena Chauhan Head of Sulphur and Sulphuric Acid Integer Research The Fertilizer Institute Outlook and Technology conference Fort Lauderdale, Florida Founded in 2002, Integer Research

More information

Puget Sound Regional Forecast Chris Mefford Community Attributes

Puget Sound Regional Forecast Chris Mefford Community Attributes 2015 Puget Sound Regional Forecast Chris Mefford Community Attributes 3 1,000s The Regional Economy has added jobs consistently for nearly 5 full years. In a few months, this will be the longest streak

More information

Living with limits: growth, resources and climate change Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times

Living with limits: growth, resources and climate change Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times Living with limits: growth, resources and climate change Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times Grantham Institute for Climate Change Annual Lecture 2011 3 rd November

More information

Opportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip?

Opportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip? Opportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip? Ross DeVol Chief Research Officer (310) 570 4615 rdevol@milkeninstitute.org www.milkeninstitute.org Presentation

More information

International Trade Economic Forecasts An Overview of Orange County and Southern California Exports

International Trade Economic Forecasts An Overview of Orange County and Southern California Exports International Trade Economic Forecasts An Overview of Orange County and Southern California Exports Mira Farka Adrian R. Fleissig Institute for Economic and Environmental Studies Orange County / Inland

More information

Impacts of the Global Economy on Asia Pacific Travel. 29 June 2007 John Walker

Impacts of the Global Economy on Asia Pacific Travel. 29 June 2007 John Walker Impacts of the Global Economy on Asia Pacific Travel 29 June 2007 John Walker jwalker@oxfordeconomics.com Oxford Economics Founded in 1981 Over 300 clients including blue chip companies and government

More information

Energy Trends and Emissions in the Former Soviet Union

Energy Trends and Emissions in the Former Soviet Union Energy Trends and Emissions in the Former Soviet Union GTSP Annual Meeting May 29, 2008 Presented by M. Evans Looking back Overview Economic and demographic trends Energy trends and energy intensity Toward

More information

Index, nominal terms, 2010 = Energy. Agriculture Metals

Index, nominal terms, 2010 = Energy. Agriculture Metals Outline Broad commodity price trends Index, nominal terms, 2010 = 100 180 150 Energy 120 90 60 Agriculture Metals 30 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Source:

More information

De-Globalization: Does That Word Mean What You Think it Means?

De-Globalization: Does That Word Mean What You Think it Means? De-Globalization: Does That Word Mean What You Think it Means? Presentation to 35 Annual Monetary & Trade Conference Mykyta Vesselovsky, Ph.D. Office of the Chief Economist Global Affairs Canada April

More information

Natural Gas Market Perspectives

Natural Gas Market Perspectives Natural Gas Market Perspectives KIUC 2015 Annual Energy Conference James Beck Petroleum Economist March 19, 2015 1 Fully Integrated Downstream System As of Dec. 31, 2014 Marketing Area MPC Refineries Light

More information

The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum

The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum David J. Stockton Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics Chief Economist Monetary Policy Analytics October 5, 2017 What s Driving the Global

More information

SUMMARY. Natural Gas In The World 2017 Edition

SUMMARY. Natural Gas In The World 2017 Edition CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas SUMMARY Natural Gas In The World 217 Edition CEDIGAZ, October 217 NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD 217 SUMMARY Worldwide proven natural gas reserves grew

More information

Market Report Series Oil 2017

Market Report Series Oil 2017 Market Report Series Oil 2017 Neil Atkinson, Head Oil Industry & Markets Division, IEA International Institute for Strategic Studies, Bahrain, 17 September 2017 Oil demand continues to grow but at a slower

More information

Dr Neil J. Bristow. 8 th WSD Steel Success Strategies European Steel Conference London, 30 th November H & W Worldwide Consulting

Dr Neil J. Bristow. 8 th WSD Steel Success Strategies European Steel Conference London, 30 th November H & W Worldwide Consulting Dr Neil J. Bristow 8 th WSD Steel Success Strategies European Steel Conference London, 30 th November 2010 neil.j.bristow@hwworldwideconsult.com +61240286268 H & W Worldwide Consulting 1. Brief comparison

More information

The World and U.S. Economy and San Pedro Bay Container Trade Outlook Forecast Review

The World and U.S. Economy and San Pedro Bay Container Trade Outlook Forecast Review The World and U.S. Economy and San Pedro Bay Container Trade Outlook Forecast Review Michael Keenan Harbor Planning and Economic Analyst Port of Los Angeles October 5, 2009 Review of 2007 Container Trade

More information

Global Economic Outlook

Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook Mark A. Wynne Vice President & Associate Director of Research Director, Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Presentation to Vistas Conference

More information

Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond

Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond Wednesday, April 28, 2010; 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM Moderator: Maria Bartiromo, Anchor, CNBC's Closing Bell With Maria Bartiromo Speakers: Nick Calamos, President

More information

Inland Empire International Trade Economic Forecast

Inland Empire International Trade Economic Forecast Inland Empire International Trade Economic Forecast Mira Farka Adrian Fleissig Institute for Economic and Environmental Studies Orange County / Inland Empire Regional SBDC Network California State University,

More information

Steel Market Outlook. AM/NS Calvert

Steel Market Outlook. AM/NS Calvert Steel Market Outlook AM/NS Calvert Agenda Economic indicators Key steel consuming markets and forecasted demand Steel consumptions trends Global steel markets and raw materials Comments on trade 1 U.S.

More information

Airline industry outlook 2019

Airline industry outlook 2019 Airline industry outlook 2019 Brian Pearce Chief Economist 12 December 2018 Million barrels a day US$ per barrel Are the markets signalling recession ahead? 60 55 Business confidence (left scale) FTSE

More information

18 th May Global Steel Industry Trends: Is the perception the reality?

18 th May Global Steel Industry Trends: Is the perception the reality? 18 th May 2004 Global Steel Industry Trends: Is the perception the reality? Investors have perceived the steel industry negatively Poor returns over the long term, high volatility, relatively small size

More information

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development United Nations Conference on Trade and Development 11 th MULTI-YEAR EXPERT MEETING ON COMMODITIES AND DEVELOPMENT 15-16 April 2019, Geneva Saudi economic growth strategy on the face of oil price uncertainty

More information

Composition of Federal Spending

Composition of Federal Spending *For Institutional Use Only* Demographic and Economic Trends: Growth, Debt and Promises Douglas C. Robinson RCM Robinson Capital Management LLC SEC Registered Investment Advisory Firm Advisory services

More information

Current situation and prospects for copper, nickel, lead and zinc

Current situation and prospects for copper, nickel, lead and zinc Global Commodities Forum Palais des Nations, Geneva 22-23 March 2010 Current situation and prospects for copper, nickel, lead and zinc by Mr. Don Smale, Secretary General, International Lead and Zinc Study

More information

China s Industrial Capabilities and Trade

China s Industrial Capabilities and Trade China s Industrial Capabilities and Trade Loren Brandt Thomas Rawski June 16, 2005 Key Facts: China, 2003 Population: 1.3 billion (1 st ) GNP: $US 1.4 trillion (3 rd ) Foreign Trade: $US 850.1 (3rd) GNP

More information

Agricultural Outlook: Rebalancing U.S. Agriculture

Agricultural Outlook: Rebalancing U.S. Agriculture Agricultural Outlook: Rebalancing U.S. Agriculture Michael J. Swanson Ph.D. Agricultural Economist January 2018 2018 Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. All rights reserved. For public use. The U.S. Ag Sector renormalizes!

More information

National and Virginia Economic Outlook Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business

National and Virginia Economic Outlook Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business National and Virginia Economic Outlook Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business October 24, 2018 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute

More information

BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE SUMMIT

BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE SUMMIT BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE SUMMIT NEW YORK 23 APRIL 2013 Michael Liebreich, Chief Executive Bloomberg New Energy Finance Twitter: @miebreich // / / / 1 AGENDA 1. Clean energy investment update 2. Four

More information

BC Pension Forum. Economic Outlook. Presented by: Ben Homsy, CFA Portfolio Manager

BC Pension Forum. Economic Outlook. Presented by: Ben Homsy, CFA Portfolio Manager BC Pension Forum Economic Outlook Presented by: Ben Homsy, CFA Portfolio Manager 1694 1704 1713 1723 1732 1741 1751 1760 1770 1779 1788 1798 1807 1817 1826 1836 1845 1854 1864 1873 1883 1892 1901 1911

More information

MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors

MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors INTRODUCTION The U.S. economy continues to grow at a gradual but also erratic pace The current recovery is one of the slowest in the post-wwii U.S. history.

More information

What can we expect from the energy markets in 2017?

What can we expect from the energy markets in 2017? What can we expect from the energy markets in 2017? Luc De Leersnyder & Jens Lievens E&C Consultants 23/11/2016 What do we do? ENERGY PROCUREMENT CONSULTANCY Gas & electricity Focused on price, not on

More information

Can Manufacturing Still be a Driver of

Can Manufacturing Still be a Driver of Can Manufacturing Still be a Driver of Inclusive Growth? Robert Z Lawrence Albert L Williams Professor of Trade and Investment Harvard Kennedy School Senior Fellow, MasterCard Center for Inclusive Growth

More information

School of international and Public Affairs. Columbia University Manuel Pinho

School of international and Public Affairs. Columbia University Manuel Pinho School of international and Public Affairs Columbia University Manuel Pinho SPHERE WITH CORE What matters to China matters to the world Do not give lessons to China: Europe and the US The challenges: Growth

More information

The US Economic Outlook

The US Economic Outlook IHS ECONOMICS US Outlook The US Economic Outlook November 2014 ihs.com Rafael Amiel, Director latin America Economics +1 215 789 7405, rafael.amiel.ihs.com 2014 IHS The US economy is gaining momentum Growth

More information

WINDS OF CHANGE GLOBAL FLEET & MRO MARKET FORECAST

WINDS OF CHANGE GLOBAL FLEET & MRO MARKET FORECAST WINDS OF CHANGE 2016-2026 GLOBAL FLEET & MRO MARKET FORECAST OCTOBER 19, 2016 Tom Cooper Vice President AVIATION Oliver Wyman s Aviation, Aerospace & Defense practice is the largest and most capable consulting

More information

Dry Bulk Shipping in Indonesia Opportunities & Outlook

Dry Bulk Shipping in Indonesia Opportunities & Outlook Dry Bulk Shipping in Indonesia Opportunities & Outlook Mare Forum, Jakarta 27 Peter Malpas 29 th November 27 Introduction Indonesia Key Facts Land Area 1,919,44 km2 = World s s 16 th Largest Population

More information

Seven Lean Years Explaining Persistent Global Economic Weakness

Seven Lean Years Explaining Persistent Global Economic Weakness Seven Lean Years Explaining Persistent Global Economic Weakness 9 June 2015 Bank of Canada and European Central Bank Conference Tim Lane Deputy Governor Bank of Canada The global economy remains weak and

More information

IN THE MIDST OF A PHASE CHANGE

IN THE MIDST OF A PHASE CHANGE IN THE MIDST OF A PHASE CHANGE NEW ZEALAND WIND ENERGY ASSOCIATION CONFERENCE, WELLINGTON 2014 KOBAD BHAVNAGRI TWITTER: @KOBADB / / // / Kobad Bhavnagri NZ Wind Energy Association Conference, April 2014

More information

Trade and Economic Trends

Trade and Economic Trends Trade and Economic Trends Marine Terminal Management Training Program Paul Bingham Managing Director, Global Commerce & Transportation IHS Global Insight Long Beach, CA September 21, 2009 The Global Recession

More information

Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum. Canada leading the pack

Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum. Canada leading the pack Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum Canada leading the pack Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919 dawn.desjardins@rbc.com September 2017 Brighter global outlook gains traction

More information

Market Report Series Oil SIEW 2017 launch - 28 March 2017

Market Report Series Oil SIEW 2017 launch - 28 March 2017 Market Report Series Oil 2017 SIEW 2017 launch - 28 March 2017 Oil demand continues to grow but at a slower pace 2.0 Global oil demand growth 2014-2022 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

More information

Growth Strategies and Dynamics in Developing Countries. Michael Spence Hamilton Project/CGD Forum Washington D.C. April 14, 2008

Growth Strategies and Dynamics in Developing Countries. Michael Spence Hamilton Project/CGD Forum Washington D.C. April 14, 2008 Growth Strategies and Dynamics in Developing Countries Michael Spence Hamilton Project/CGD Forum Washington D.C. April 14, 2008 1 The Focus The subject is sustained high inclusive growth and the policies,

More information

Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards Analytical Studies Branch April 20, 2017

Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards Analytical Studies Branch April 20, 2017 Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy: How have the decline in oil prices and a weaker Canadian dollar affected Canada s economy? www.statcan.gc.ca Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards

More information

Global Economic & Truck-Market Overview: The Next Five Years

Global Economic & Truck-Market Overview: The Next Five Years AUTOMOTIVE Global Economic & Truck-Market Overview: The Next Five Years 22 September 2016 Hannover, Germany Andrej Divis, Director, IHS Automotive +1 703 346 2331, Andrej.Divis@ihsmarkit.com 2 Index, over

More information

The Source for Maritime Information and Insight. Copyright Copyright 2009 IHS Global 2008 IHS Insight. Inc. All Rights Reserved. 1

The Source for Maritime Information and Insight. Copyright Copyright 2009 IHS Global 2008 IHS Insight. Inc. All Rights Reserved. 1 The Source for Maritime Information and Insight Copyright Copyright 2009 IHS Global 2008 IHS Insight. Inc. All Rights Reserved. 1 A Greener Shade of Blue Christopher Pålsson Director IHS Fairplay 20 minutes

More information

Global Boxboard Market Review

Global Boxboard Market Review Global Boxboard Market Review Sailing In A World Of Volatility And Uncertainty European Conference March 2018 Alejandro Mata Senior Economist, European Forest Products Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary

More information

Market Update. Randy Tinseth Vice President, Marketing Boeing Commercial Airplanes. Copyright 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved.

Market Update. Randy Tinseth Vice President, Marketing Boeing Commercial Airplanes. Copyright 2016 Boeing. All rights reserved. Market Update The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions are to be used for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or

More information

Construction Market Opportunities and Risks

Construction Market Opportunities and Risks Construction Market Opportunities and Risks Construction Teleconference 11:00 a.m. to 12:00 noon June 3, 2004 Copyright 2003 Global Insight, Inc. Speakers Global Construction Outlook Chris Holling, Executive

More information

Global Construction Outlook: Laura Hanlon Product Manager, Global Construction Outlook May 21, 2009

Global Construction Outlook: Laura Hanlon Product Manager, Global Construction Outlook May 21, 2009 Global Construction Outlook: Short-term term Pain, Long-term Gain Laura Hanlon Product Manager, Global Construction Outlook May 21, 2009 What This Means for You The world is set to be hit this year with

More information

Pacific Rim Coal Marketing

Pacific Rim Coal Marketing Wyoming Infrastructure Authority Spring Energy Conference June 11-12, 2015 Cheyanne Pacific Rim Coal Marketing Michael Mewing MC2 Company Pty Limited Pacific Rim Coal Marketing * Asia s reliance on coal

More information

ABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee

ABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee ABA Commercial Real Estate Lending Committee Commercial Real Estate Outlook The Good, the Bad and the Ugly January 16, 2019 Rob Strand Senior Economist American Bankers Association aba.com 1-800-BANKERS

More information

2018 Long Term Forecast

2018 Long Term Forecast 2018 Long Term Forecast Arthur Maniaci SUPERVISOR, LOAD FORECASTING & ENERGY EFFICIENCY Electric System Planning Working Group March 13, 2018, Rensselaer, NY Principal Factors Affecting the 2018 Baseline

More information

Grasshoppers, Ants and Locusts: the future of the world economy

Grasshoppers, Ants and Locusts: the future of the world economy Ralph Miliband Series on the Restructuring of World Power Grasshoppers, Ants and Locusts: the future of the world economy Martin Wolf Associate editor and chief economics commentator, Financial Times Professor

More information

Overview of market trends through 2005 Forecasts for 2006 and 2007

Overview of market trends through 2005 Forecasts for 2006 and 2007 Overview of market trends through 2005 Forecasts for 2006 and 2007 Ed Pepke, Ph.D. Forest Products Marketing Specialist Food and Agricultural Organization & UN Economic Commission for Europe Geneva, Switzerland

More information

Financial annexes

Financial annexes 2019-2021 Financial annexes Agenda Macro scenario Thermal generation Renewables Infrastructure & Networks Retail Enel Group 62 2019-2021 Macro scenario Macro scenario GDP, CPI, FX GDP (%) CPI (%) FX against

More information

THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY: Recent Performance and Long-Term Outlook. Undersecretary Rolando G. Tungpalan 17 February 2016

THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY: Recent Performance and Long-Term Outlook. Undersecretary Rolando G. Tungpalan 17 February 2016 THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY: Recent Performance and Long-Term Outlook Undersecretary Rolando G. Tungpalan 17 February 2016 Favorable Macroeconomic Trends The Philippines has been on a higher growth trajectory

More information

ADDITIONAL MARKET OUTLOOK for the year ended 31 December 2015

ADDITIONAL MARKET OUTLOOK for the year ended 31 December 2015 ADDITIONAL MARKET OUTLOOK for the year ended 31 December 2015 SOUTH AFRICAN PORT VOLUMES 2015 TEUs 2015 2014 Volume Variance % Deep sea landed full 1 471 927 1 386 381 85 546 6.17 Deep sea landed empty

More information

Alaska s Natural Resource Commodities: A 10-Year Outlook

Alaska s Natural Resource Commodities: A 10-Year Outlook Alaska Resources Development Council November 14-15, 2018 Alaska s Natural Resource Commodities: A 10-Year Outlook David R. Hammond, Ph.D. Principal Mineral Economist Hammond International Group Commodities

More information

Economic Overview. Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017

Economic Overview. Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017 Economic Overview Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017 TTX Overview TTX functions as the industry s railcar cooperative, operating under pooling authority granted by the Surface Transportation

More information

Alloy Production Is Brazil Back Online?

Alloy Production Is Brazil Back Online? Alloy Production Is Brazil Back Online? Singapore, March 23 rd, 2016 No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic,

More information

US Economic Activity

US Economic Activity US Economic Activity GDP has been in positive territory for seven consecutive quarters, and the advance estimate shows the US economy grew at a 1.0% rate in the fourth quarter 2015. US Economic Activity

More information

Economy On The Rebound

Economy On The Rebound Economy On The Rebound Robert Johnson Associate Director of Economic Analysis November 17, 2009 robert.johnson@morningstar.com (312) 696-6103 2009, Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Executive

More information

Global Economic Outlook: From Fiscal Cliff to Rushcliffe in 15 minutes. Tom Rogers. Lead Economist, Oxford Economics.

Global Economic Outlook: From Fiscal Cliff to Rushcliffe in 15 minutes. Tom Rogers. Lead Economist, Oxford Economics. Global Economic Outlook: From Fiscal Cliff to Rushcliffe in 15 minutes Tom Rogers Lead Economist, Oxford Economics trogers@oxfordeconomics.com 16 th January 2013 Overview External environment showing signs

More information

Car Production. Brazil Mexico. Production in thousands. Source: AMIA Asociacion Mexicana de la industria automotriz.

Car Production. Brazil Mexico. Production in thousands. Source: AMIA Asociacion Mexicana de la industria automotriz. Car Production Production in thousands 4000 3000 2000 1000 Brazil Mexico 0 2013 2014 2015 Source: AMIA Asociacion Mexicana de la industria automotriz. Mexico s Expanding Middle Class Percent of population

More information

GLOBAL ECONOMICS, REAL ESTATE PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 RICHARD BARKHAM GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST

GLOBAL ECONOMICS, REAL ESTATE PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 RICHARD BARKHAM GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST GLOBAL ECONOMICS, REAL ESTATE PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 RICHARD BARKHAM GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST BREXIT TRUMPISM EURO-TRUMPISM 4 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 LET S GET GEOPOLITICS IN PERSPECTIVE

More information

Oil for Heating and Transportation Maine Per Capita Use is High A 2017 Perspective Presented by Jamie Py

Oil for Heating and Transportation Maine Per Capita Use is High A 2017 Perspective Presented by Jamie Py Oil for Heating and Transportation Maine Per Capita Use is High A 2017 Perspective Presented by Jamie Py October 2017 Perspectives Maine Fuel Marketer Background 2017 Reducing Oil Use. The Why and How

More information

16. Key Facts about Long Run Economic Growth

16. Key Facts about Long Run Economic Growth Fletcher School, Tufts University 16. Key Facts about Long Run Economic Growth E212 Macroeconomics Prof. George Alogoskoufis How we Measure and Compare Living Standards Living standards are usually measured

More information

Global Outlook for Agriculture Trend versus Cycle

Global Outlook for Agriculture Trend versus Cycle Global Outlook for Agriculture Trend versus Cycle Michael Swanson Ph.D. Wells Fargo October 2017 Everything is connected we just don t see how. Connection corollary: Nothing natural moves in a straight

More information

Global Containerboard Outlook

Global Containerboard Outlook Global Containerboard Outlook With a focus on the European market RISI European Conference March 2017 Gleb Sinavskis Associate Economist, European Paper Packaging Gleb Sinavskis Associate Economist, European

More information