Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast. May 13, 2014

Transcription

1 Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast May 13, 2014

2 Outline for Today Myths and Realities of this Recovery Positive Economic Signs Negative Economic Signs Outlook for 2014 The Employment Picture Housing Trends

3 Headlines for 1914 Ford Raises Daily Wage from $2.40 to $5.00 Panama Canal Opens Austria Declares War Burnett-anti-immigration Law Passes

4 The Economy in1914 U.S. GDP Real Per Capita GDP Federal Spending CPI Unemployment Rate $36.5 billion $4,799 (Honduras) $730 million ($17 bil.) %

5 Myths and Realities of this Recovery

6 Current Expansion Began July months 7 th longest of 33 total expansions since December 1854

7 U.S. GDP

8 U.S. Quarterly GDP I II III IV 2010 I II III IV 2011 I II III IV 2012 I II III IV 2013 I II III IV 2014 I

9 United States Payroll Employment Employment Decline: -8,710,000 Employment Gain: 8,044,000 Percent Recovered: 92.4%

10 What s the Target? 3,000,000 Jobs per Year 250,000 Jobs per Month

11 US Job Growth ,193,000 jobs 182,750 per month (Second Largest Job Growth Since 1999)

12 US Job Growth ,186,000 jobs 182,150 per month (Third Largest Job Growth Since 1999)

13 -6,000-5,000-4,000-3,000-2,000-1, ,000 2,000 3,000 4, ,168 2,810 3,844 2,157 2,810 3,391 3,014 3,170 1,944-1, ,019 2,484 2,071 1,115-3,617-5,052 1,022 2,103 2,193 2,186 U.S. Job Growth

14 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul Labor Force Participation Rates U.S. August US LFPR 63.2%

15 Labor Force Participation Rates US LFPR 67.1% 2013 US LFPR 63.7%

16 Labor Force Participation Rate # of People Employed + # of People Unemployed Noninstitutional Population 16 +

17 2010 Population By Age Group Age Group Count Under 5 years 20,201,362 5 to 9 years 20,348, to 14 years 20,677, to 19 years 22,040, to 24 years 21,585, to 29 years 21,101, to 34 years 19,962, to 39 years 20,179, to 44 years 20,890, to 49 years 22,708, to 54 years 22,298, to 59 years 19,664, to 64 years 16,817, to 69 years 12,435, to 74 years 9,278, to 79 years 7,317, to 84 years 5,743, years and over 5,493,433

18 NC Number of Unemployed per Job Opening (Not Seasonally Adjusted) January Persons per Job Opening November Persons per Job Opening 2 1 January Persons per Job Opening 0

19 MSA Number of Unemployed per Job Opening (Not Seasonally Adjusted) 5 4 December Persons per Job Opening 3 2 November Persons per Job Opening 1 0 January Persons per Job Opening

20 SC Number of Unemployed per Job Opening (Not Seasonally Adjusted) 5 4 November Persons per Job Opening January Persons per Job Opening November Persons per Job Opening 0

21 Housing Stock/Prices Interest Rates Inflation Consumer Credit Consumer Confidence Dollar Gas Prices Budget Deficit Positive Indicators

22 Jan-05 Apr Jul Oct Jan-06 Apr Jul Oct Jan-07 Apr Jul Oct Jan-08 Apr Jul Oct Jan-09 Apr Jul Oct Jan-10 Apr Jul Oct Jan-11 Apr Jul Oct Jan-12 Apr Jul Oct Jan-13 Apr Jul Oct Jan U.S. Monthly New Home Inventory (Seasonally Adjusted) January Months Supply December Months Supply 0

23 Monthly Federal Funds Rate Current Rate %

24 Percentage Changes in CPI Annual Increases % % % % %

25 1/1/ /1/1980 7/1/1981 4/1/1982 1/1/ /1/1983 7/1/1984 4/1/1985 1/1/ /1/1986 7/1/1987 4/1/1988 1/1/ /1/1989 7/1/1990 4/1/1991 1/1/ /1/1992 7/1/1993 4/1/1994 1/1/ /1/1995 7/1/1996 4/1/1997 1/1/ /1/1998 7/1/1999 4/1/2000 1/1/ /1/2001 7/1/2002 4/1/2003 1/1/ /1/2004 7/1/2005 4/1/2006 1/1/ /1/2007 7/1/2008 4/1/2009 1/1/ /1/2010 7/1/2011 4/1/2012 1/1/ U.S. Household Debt Payments as a Percent of Income 20 Peak 2007 III 13.18% Current 9.93% 0

26 Consumer Confidence October March April Jul 07 Apr 08 Sep 08 Dec 08 May 09 Jan 10 Apr 10 Aug 10 Mar 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Aug 12 Feb Dec

27 Dollar Price of Euro $0.87 $1.36

28 Monthly Gas Prices January February March 2012 April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012 August 2012 September 2012 October 2012 November 2012 December 2012 January 2013 February 2013 March 2013 April 2013 May 2013 June 2013 July 2013 August 2013 September 2013 October 2013 November 2013 December 2013 January February

29 Effect of Energy Price Increase on U.S. Economy Annual Transportation Usage 187 billion gallons per year Annual Total Usage 288 billion gallons per year Effect of a $.50 increase in price Transportation $93.5 billion per year Total $144.0 billion per year

30 Year f 2015 f 2017 f 2019 f 2021 f 2023 f U.S. Budget Deficit Budget Deficit $672 billion 2015 Budget Deficit $388 billion

31 Negative Indicators Excess Reserves Trade Deficit Tax Increases

32 1/1/2008 3/1/2008 5/1/2008 7/1/2008 9/1/ /1/2008 1/1/2009 3/1/2009 5/1/2009 7/1/2009 9/1/ /1/2009 1/1/2010 3/1/2020 5/1/2010 7/1/2010 9/1/ /1/2010 1/1/2011 3/1/2011 5/1/2011 7/1/2011 9/1/ /1/2011 1/1/2012 3/1/2012 5/1/2012 7/1/2012 9/1/ /1/2012 1/1/2013 3/1/2013 5/1/2013 7/1/2013 9/1/ /1/2013 1/1/2014 3/1/ Banking System Excess Reserves March Excess Reserves $2,545 billion

33 U.S. Trade Deficits Trade Deficit $799 Billion 2008 Trade Deficit $681 Billion 2009 Trade Deficit $382 Billion 2013TradeDeficit $475 Billion

34 Spending Cuts Fiscal Year 2014 Original Sequestration $100 billion New Sequestration $50 billion Fiscal Year 2015 Original Sequestration $100 billion New Sequestration $75 billion

35 Outlook for 2014

36 Employment Picture

37 Mining Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade TWU Information FIRE B&P Services H&E Services Leisure Services Other Services Government U.S. Jobs Lost Jobs Gained

38 The North Carolina Experiment

39 NC Unemployment Benefit Changes Old Benefit New Benefit 26 Weeks $535/week max benefit Weeks $350/week max benefit

40 July 2013 Unemployment Rates State Rate NEVADA 9.5 ILLINOIS 9.2 NORTH CAROLINA 8.9 RHODE ISLAND 8.9 GEORGIA 8.8 MICHIGAN 8.8 CALIFORNIA 8.7 NEW JERSEY 8.6 MISSISSIPPI 8.5 TENNESSEE 8.5

41 State December 2013 Unemployment Rates Rate RHODE ISLAND 9.3 NEVADA 9.0 ILLINOIS 8.9 CALIFORNIA 8.3 MICHIGAN 8.3 KENTUCKY 7.9 MISSISSIPPI 7.8 TENNESSEE 7.7 ARIZONA 7.6 ARKANSAS 7.4 CONNECTICUT 7.4 GEORGIA 7.4 NEW JERSEY 7.2 MASSACHUSETTS 7.1 OHIO 7.1 OREGON 7.1 NEW YORK 7.0 NORTH CAROLINA 6.9 INDIANA 6.8 PENNSYLVANIA 6.8 WASHINGTON 6.7 SOUTH CAROLINA 6.6

42 2013 North Carolina Labor Force 4,800,000 4,780,000 4,760,000 4,740,000 4,720,000 4,700,000 4,680,000 4,660,000 4,640,000 4,620,000 4,600,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

43 2013 North Carolina Unemployment 440, , , , , , , ,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

44 2013 North Carolina Employment 4,400,000 4,390,000 4,380,000 4,370,000 4,360,000 4,350,000 4,340,000 4,330,000 4,320,000 4,310,000 4,300,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

45 North Carolina Unemployment Rate December Rate 6.9% JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR NC Seasonally Adjusted NC Seasonally Adjusted Forecast US Seasonally Adjusted

46 Housing in 2013

47 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV US Residential Construction (NIPA)

48 US Residential Building Permits Year Total Permits Single Family Permits , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

49 NC Residential Building Permits Year Total Permits Single Family Permits ,824 66, ,226 66, ,077 77, ,910 84, ,979 82, ,777 70, ,652 39, ,800 25, ,889 26, ,804 24, ,692 29, * 50,510 35,399 * Based on 11 months of data

50 Jan-05 Apr Jul Oct Jan-06 Apr Jul Oct Jan-07 Apr Jul Oct Jan-08 Apr Jul Oct Jan-09 Apr Jul Oct Jan-10 Apr Jul Oct Jan-11 Apr Jul Oct Jan-12 Apr Jul Oct Jan-13 Apr Jul Oct U.S. Monthly New Home Inventory (Seasonally Adjusted) January Months Supply November Months Supply 0

51 US Case Schiller Housing Price Index (Composite 20) Month Index Condition Percent Change January Base July Peak 106.5% March Trough -35.1% February % February Current 12.9%

52 Keys to Watch Consumer Confidence Consumer Debt Housing Prices Excess Reserves US Monthly Job Growth (1 st Friday) Gasoline Prices

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56 Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast May 13, 2014

57 Updated Sept 2013