The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division"

Alfred Clarke
6 years ago
Views:

1 The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division

2 Glass Half Full Six plus years of moderate growth

3 Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate

4 Glass Half Full Six years of steady growth Housing and financial sectors recovered

5 Glass Half Full Six years of steady growth Housing and financial sectors recovered Almost 14 million jobs since start of recovery

6 Labor Market Million Total Nonfarm Jobs Million Household Employment SA, Thousands, 4-week Moving Average Initial Unemployment Claims Percent Unemployment Rate December 5.0% 4 Unemployment Rate U

Household Net Worth Trillion $ 90 80 Household Wealth 70

7 Household Net Worth Trillion $ Household Wealth

8 U.S. Corporate Profits SAAR, $billions 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,

9 Glass Half Full ISM non-manufacturing 55.3 Inflation flat CPI-U at 0.4% Y/Y Budget deficit below half a trillion dollars

10 Glass Half Empty Budget deficits still nearly a half trillion dollars! And set to soar!

11 CBO s Baseline Deficit (August 2015) Billions $ 500 Budget Deficit Percent of GDP 5 Deficit to GDP

12 Glass Half Empty Budget deficits nearly a half trillion dollars Federal debt shot up and still rising fast

13 Federal Publicly Held Debt (August 2015) Billions $ 25,000 20,000 15,000 Debt 10,000 5, Percent of GDP Debt to GDP

14 Glass Half Empty Budget deficits huge and poised to soar Along with federal debt Multiple local weaknesses

15 Glass Half Empty Multiple local weaknesses Flat wages ISM manufacturing index at 48.2 Industrial production down 1.8% Y/Y At risk of deflation?

16 Economy losing steam: 2015 Q2 3.9 % 2015 Q3 2.0% 2015 Q4 1.x% Glass Half Empty

17 Glass Half Empty Budget deficits huge and poised to soar Along with federal debt Multiple local weaknesses A persistent output gap

18 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q to Q Trillion $ Forecast Actual 10 Potential Potential GDP estimated by Congressional Budget Office

19 Glass Half Empty Budget deficits huge and poised to soar Along with federal debt And nothing pending on entitlements A persistent output gap And a downgraded future

20 U.S. GDP: Estimates of Potential (Real $2013 dollars)

21 Why is the Glass Half Empty?

22 Why is the Glass Half Empty? Despite massive, historic stimulus? 4 years of trillion dollar plus deficits 7 years of near-zero Fed funds rate Over $3 trillion quantitative easing

23 Why is the Glass Half Empty? Despite massive, historic stimulus? Administration s anti-growth tax hikes Anti-growth regulatory policies

24 Regulatory Overload 1. Health care: ACA regulation of health insurance benefit and payment parameters 2. Employee benefits: Expanded information reporting 3. Energy efficiency: 14 regulations on efficiency standards for electrical equipment 4. Air quality: Reduction of CO2 emissions from electricity generation facilities 5. Ozone: National ambient air quality standards for ozone 6. Labor: Fair Labor Standards Act regulations increasing overtime pay threshold 7. Natural gas: Requirements for air emissions and controls for new natural gas wells And over 240 additional regulations across all federal agencies in just the past year

25 What Can We Do?

26 Step 1: No WMEs What Can We Do?

27 The U.S. Chamber Policy Agenda Emphasize prudent, cost-effective regulation Infrastructure investment Comprehensive tax reform Advance free trade Energy market reform Immigration reform Entitlement reform Education reform

28 U.S. monetary policy Future Concerns End-game regulatory surge Cloudy international picture

29 U.S. Monetary Policy Future Concerns

30 Fed Policy Billions $ 4,500 4,000 Bank Assets and Liabilities 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Jan Apr. July Oct. Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Excess Federal Reserve Assets Money Supply (M1)

31 Fed Policy Billions $ 5,000 4,500 Bank Assets and Liabilities 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Not a Forecast Excess Reserves Federal Reserve Assets

32 Normalizing the Funds Rate Not a Forecast

33 Future Concerns U.S. Monetary Policy Administration s end-game regulatory surge

34 Future Concerns U.S. Monetary Policy End-game regulatory surge Cloudy international picture

35 Future Concerns End-game regulatory surge Cloudy international picture = tough to export Europe Latin America Asia

36 Bottom Line 6 years and counting glass is still half full Blame for lagging economy rests squarely with the Administration

37 Bottom Line 6 years and counting glass is still half full Blame for lagging economy rests squarely with the Administration Recession? not in the near term, but recovery is getting long in the tooth

38 Bottom Line 6 years and counting glass is still half full Blame for lagging economy rests squarely with the Administration Recession? not in the near term How can we do better? Defensively, government needs to do less harm

39 Bottom Line 6 years and counting glass is still half full Blame for lagging economy rests squarely with the Administration Recession? not in the near term How can we do better? Defensively, government needs to do less harm Proactively:

40 The U.S. Chamber Policy Agenda Emphasize prudent, cost-effective regulation Infrastructure investment Comprehensive tax reform Advance free trade Energy market reform Immigration reform Entitlement reform Education reform

41 The Economic Outlook: Economic Policy Division

42 History of the Federal Funds Rate

43 Normalizing the Funds Rate Not a Forecast

44 Current Interest Rate Structure Federal Funds Rate 1 Year 10 Year 30 Year

45 Higher Funds Rates Shifts Structure UP Federal Funds Rate 1 Year 10 Year 30 Year

46 6 Conventional Wisdom Shifts on the Rate Structure Federal Funds Rate 1 Year 10 Year 30 Year

47 9.00 The Greenspan Conundrum (Funds Rate )

48 10.00 The Greenspan Conundrum Funds rate v 10-Yr Treasury Effective Funds Rate 10 Year Treasury Note

49 Normalizing the Funds Rate Not a Forecast

50 10 A Possible Future Path for the Funds Rate 9 8 Not a Forecast Target Funds Rate 10 Year Treasury Note

51 10 A Possible Future Path for the Funds Rate 9 8 Not a Forecast Target Funds Rate 10 Year Treasury Note

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six years of steady growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half Full