What s Ahead for The Colorado Economy?

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1 What s Ahead for The Colorado Economy? Colorado Counties Inc. Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations November 28, 2017

2 Real GDP Growth Quarterly and Annualized Real GDP Percent Annualized GDP Annualized GDP Annualized GDP Present Quarterly GDP Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and November 2017 Consensus Forecast.

3 Long-Term Real GDP Growth Trend Percent Change 20-Year Quarterly Moving Average Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real GDP.

4 Economic Growth Percent Change Percent Change Personal Consumption Expenditures Year-over-Year Year Fixed Business Investment Quarterly SAAR Year-over-Year Quarterly SAAR Year Percent Change Percent Change Government Spending Year-over-Year Quarterly SAAR Year Exports Net Exports Imports Year Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Business Research Division.

5 Thousands, Month-over- Month, 12-Mo Average National Employment Month-over-Month Change, 12-Month Average Recession 8 Months Recession 18 Months Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), Moody s Analytics, and NBER.

6 State Employment Growth Year-over-Year October 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

7 Labor Underutilization Percentage of Labor Force Average U-6 U % Average U-3 U-3 4.1% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

8 Labor Force Participation Rates National by Age Cohort Percent Peak Current Age Group Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS).

9 Labor Force and Unemployment Rate National by Educational Attainment, Population 25 and Over, September 2017 Percentage LFPR Unemployment Rate 0 Less than a high school diploma High school graduates Some college, no degree Associate degree Bachelor's degree Advanced degree Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS), Not Seasonally Adjusted.

10 Wage Growth Year-over-Year Percent Change 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% Year-over-Year 12-Month Average 1.0% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES, Average hourly earnings of all employees, total private, seasonally adjusted.

11 National Personal Income Growth 2016 Q2 to 2017 Q2 - CO Percent Change: 4.9% - 7 th fastest YoY - 13 th fastest QoQ - CO Per Capita Income Percent Change: 2.2% - 27 th fastest YoY - 40 th fastest QoQ Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

12 U.S. Income and Consumption Percent Change 5.0 Real Disposable Income Percent Change 4.0 Real Personal Consumption % % 2.5% % Sources: Consensus Forecasts.

13 Household Wealth Q Q $ Trillions Other Assets Mutual Funds Corporate Equities Real Estate Source: Federal Reserve Board, Balance Sheet of Households and Nonprofit Organizations (B.101) (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

14 Household Debt Burden Percent of Disposable Income DSR Debt Service Ratio (L) FOR Financial Obligations Ratio (R) Source: Federal Reserve, Household Debt Service and Obligations Ratios.

15 Index of Consumer Confidence 1985=100 Recession 8 months 160 Recession 18 months 140 Mountain Region United States Sources: The Conference Board and National Bureau of Economic Research.

16 Vehicle Sales and Retail Sales Thousands, SAAR 25,000 Vehicle Sales Retail and Food Services Sales Annual Percent Change , ,000 10, , Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Moody s Analytics, U.S. Census Bureau (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

17 Nominal Corporate Profits and Business Fixed Investment Percent Change Nominal Pre-Tax Corporate Profits Percent Change Business Fixed Investment % 4.4% % 3.9% Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Consensus Forecasts.

18 ISM Indices ISM Manufacturing Index ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

19 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices 1-year Home Price Change, August 2017 Source: Standard & Poor s (Not Seasonally Adjusted). Washington D.C. Chicago New York Cleveland Miami Atlanta Minneapolis Phoenix Los Angeles San Francisco Charlotte Boston Tampa Dallas San Diego Detroit Portland Denver Las Vegas Seattle 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Percent Change

National FHFA Home Price Growth Year over Year Q2 2017 Source:

20 National FHFA Home Price Growth Year over Year Q Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index, All Transactions Index.

21 National Housing Starts Millions Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Consensus Forecasts.

22 Federal Budget Balance $ Billions $666 -$685-1,000-1,200-1,400-1, Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Consensus Forecasts.

23 U.S. Nominal Broad Dollar Index and Real Net Exports U.S. Nominal Broad Dollar Index 1973= $ Billions Real Net Exports $609 -$ Sources: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Consensus Forecasts.

24 Money, Interest Rates, Credit, and Prices

25 Interest Rates (Forecast) Percent Year T-Note Month T-Bill Sources: Federal Reserve and Moody s.

26 Mortgage Rates (Forecast) Percent Year Fixed Mortgage Year Fixed Mortgage Year Treasury Rate Source: Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve, Moody s Analytics.

27 The FED $ in Millions 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, ,000,000-2,000,000 Treasury Securities Federal Agency Debt Securities Deposits Mortgage Backed Securities Other Assets -3,000,000 Reserve Notes Outstanding, Net Holdings -4,000,000 Other Liabilities -5,000, Source: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet, H.4.1 Statistical Release.

28 Total Debt Balance and its Composition Percent Mortgage HE Revolving Auto Loan Credit Card Student Loan Other (3%) (10%) (6%) (9%) (4%) (67%) 0 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax.

29 National Inflation Year-over-Year Percent Change Shelter All items less food and energy All items Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI), (SA).

30 Key Points Slightly higher GDP growth Consumer carried economy for past 5 years Business investment promising Net exports not much help Interest rates rising slowly Low inflation environment

31 Colorado Economy

32 Colorado Change in Population Change in Colorado Population Thousands 140, , ,000 80,000 Net Migration 7th-fastest state for percentage growth 8th-fastest state for absolute growth 84% of growth along Front Range 60,000 40,000 20, Natural Increase Continued net migration into the state Source: Colorado Demography Office.

33 Colorado Employment Growth Jobs Added Thousands , Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and the Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

34 Colorado Employment Change October 2016 October 2017 Employment in Thousands 2,670 2,660 2,650 EHS Const L&H Info Other Finance Govt MFG Mining ,640 PBS TTU Total jobs lost: 1,000 2,630 Total jobs gained: 38,800 2,620 2,610 2, Net change: 37,800 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (SA).

35 The Top 5 vs. The Bottom 5 States Jobs Added in 2017 and 2018 Forecast 2017 (1) Nevada (2) Utah (3T) Florida (3T) Georgia (3T) Idaho (10) Colorado (46) Mississippi (47T) Kansas (47T) West Virginia (49) Alaska (50) Wyoming -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2018 (1) Nevada (2) Texas (3) Oregon (4) Arizona (5) Utah (10T) Colorado (46T) Louisiana (46T) Michigan (48) Wyoming (49) West Virginia (50) Alaska 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% Source: Moody s Analytics, Economy.com.

36 Regional Employment Growth and Unemployment Employment Growth Rate, October 2017 YoY Greeley Fort Collins-Loveland Boulder Pueblo Colorado Springs Denver-Aurora- Lakewood Grand Junction Colorado 1.4% Percentage Greeley Fort Collins- Loveland Boulder Pueblo Colorado Springs Denver-Aurora- Lakewood Grand Junction Unemployment Rate October 2017 Colorado 2.6% Percentage Sources: CES (Seasonally Adjusted) and LAUS (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

37 Employment In Current Decade National, State, and Local Percent 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Greeley Ft. Collins-Loveland Denver Colorado Boulder Colorado Springs National Pueblo Grand Junction 0% -5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

38 Natural Resources and Mining

39 WTI Oil Price Dollars per Barrel $ $ July 3, 2008: $ $ $ $80.00 Average September 11, 2014: $92.89 September 11, 2017: $48.06 $60.00 $40.00 September 11, 2015: $44.75 $20.00 September 12, 2016: $0.00 $ Source: Energy Information Association (EIA), Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB.

40 Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price Dollars per Million BTU $16.00 $14.00 July 4, 2008: $13.20 $12.00 $10.00 $8.00 $6.00 September 9, 2016: $2.97 Sept. 8, 2017: $2.91 $4.00 Average $2.00 Average $ Source: Energy Information Association (EIA), Weekly Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price (Dollars per Million Btu).

41 Colorado Energy Rankings (2016) Metric Total Energy Consumed Per Capita Total Energy Production Crude Oil Production Natural Gas Production Coal Production Electricity Production Solar Energy Production Wind Energy Production Rank 34 th 7 th 7 th 5 th 11 th 28 th 8 th 10 th Hydroelectric Facilities account for one-sixth of renewable power production in the state. There are 60 small hydroelectric generators in Colorado s mountainous western region. Colorado does not have any Nuclear power plants Sources: EIA

42 Real Estate and Construction Photo Courtesy

43 Housing Units vs. Households Annual Change 70,000 60, ,000 more housing units than households 50,000 40,000 Households ,000 more households than housing units 30,000 20,000 10,000 Housing Units Source: Colorado State Demography Office. Data as of June 2017.

44 Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Prices by MSA Q Q Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Prices by MSA CAGR Q Q Colorado 10.4% Colorado 3.7% Fort Collins Denver-Aurora-Lakewood Boulder Greeley Pueblo Colorado Springs Grand Junction 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% Percent Boulder Denver-Aurora-Lakewood Fort Collins Greeley Colorado Springs Pueblo Grand Junction -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Percent Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, All Transactions Indexes.

45 Residential Building Permits Permits 60,000 50,000 40,000 Multifamily 30,000 20,000 10,000 Single Family Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Sep YTD Sep YTD

46 Value of Construction Value in Billions Non-Building Non-Residential Residential Source: McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge Research and Analytics. Oct YTD Oct YTD

47 Colorado Foreclosures ,000 YTD Foreclosures and Sales 70,000 60,000 50,000 Sales 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Filings Q Q1 Source: Colorado Division of Housing.

48 Retail Trade Sales Colorado Taxable Retail Sales 12-Month Rolling Sum 12-Month Rolling Sum, $ Millions Percent Change Colorado Retail Trade Sales Nominal Growth Months Real Growth Sources: Colorado Department of Revenue and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

Colorado Sales Taxes $ Millions, 12-Month Rolling Sum $ Millions, 12-Month Rolling Sum $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 General Fund Sales Taxes Net Sales Taxes $1,500 $1,000 $500 Note: Colorado Dept.

49 Colorado Sales Taxes $ Millions, 12-Month Rolling Sum $ Millions, 12-Month Rolling Sum $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 General Fund Sales Taxes Net Sales Taxes $1,500 $1,000 $500 Note: Colorado Dept. of Revenue retail sales reports are current through February 2016 (Left Axis). General Fund sales taxes are available through August 2017 (Left Axis). $ Sources: Colorado Office of the State Controller and the Colorado Department of Revenue.

50 Colorado General Fund $ Millions $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 Excise $6,000 $4,000 Individual and Corporate Income $2,000 $ Sales, Use, and Other Excise Fiscal Years Source: Colorado Office of the State Controller and the Colorado Office of State Planning and Budgeting (September 2017). Note: Excludes revenue transferred to the State Education Fund.

51 State Business Tax Climate Index State Rankings (2016 and 2017) Category 2016 Ranking 2017 Ranking Change Colorado Iowa Kansas Missouri Nebraska Oklahoma South Dakota Wyoming Note: A rank of 1 is more favorable for business than a rank of 50. Source: Tax Foundation.

52 Marijuana and Hemp

53 YTD Marijuana Tax and Fee Revenue YTD totals, September, Millions of Dollars $200 $150 October YTD totals 2014: $67.6 Million 2015: $130.4 Million 2016: $193.6 Million 2017: $205.1 Million $100 $50 $ Source: Colorado Department of Revenue, Taxation Division.

54 County Marijuana Tax and Fee Revenue Annual 2016, Grey Counties Forbid Medical and Retail Marijuana Sales Largest: Denver County $14,129,757 Source: The Gazette, (Colorado Springs Newspaper).

55 Colorado Industrial Hemp Production Annual, Totals Increase Over Prior Year Increase Since 2014 Registered Acres 8, % 396% Registered Sq. Ft 1.36 Million 138% 438% Active Registrations % 64% Active Registrants % 138% 2.2 million square feet of indoor production Colorado accounts for about of half of U.S. industrial hemp production Source: Colorado Department of Agriculture.

U.S. and Colorado Economies Q1 2004 Q1 2018 Index (50=Neutral) 75 70 National and State Expectations 65 60 Colorado 55 50 45 40 35 30

56 U.S. and Colorado Economies Q Q Index (50=Neutral) National and State Expectations Colorado United States 25 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 2018

57 Employment and New Entity Filings Employment, thousands 2, month total new entity filings 120,000 2, ,000 2,500 2,400 Employment (L Axis) 100,000 90,000 2,300 80,000 2,200 New Entity Filings (R Axis) 70,000 2, Note: Solid line displays actual seasonally adjusted employment numbers; dotted line reflects calculated forecasts. Source: Seasonally adjusted. Colorado total nonfarm employees from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES), calculations by BRD research team. 60,000

58 Colorado Ranking Among Other States Metric 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Real GDP Growth Employment Growth Population Growth Personal Income Growth PCPI Growth PCPI Average Annual Pay % Growth Average Annual Pay Unemployment Rate Labor Force % Growth FHFA Home Price Index Growth Data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (2017), Bureau of Labor Statistics (10/17), U.S. Census Bureau (2017), Bureau of Labor Statistics (2017), Bureau Federal Housing Finance Agency All Transactions Index (Q2 2017), BRD calculations. Note: 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year are based on the compound annual growth rate.

59 Thank You!

60 Marijuana and Hemp

61 Marijuana Tax and Fee Revenue Monthly Totals, February, September, 2017 Millions of Dollars $25 $20 Peak: August, 2017 $23.8 Million $15 $10 $5 $ Source: Colorado Department of Revenue, Taxation Division.

62 Marijuana Conjectures Disclaimer Everybody wants to know Data is very difficult 100,000 people moved to Colorado for MJ last year (taxi driver) All the housing price appreciation is due to Marijuana Effect on business attraction Effect on labor supply Impact on tourism Impact on industrial space Impact on social services Source: Nothing Reliable

How Much Wind Is in the Sails?

How Much Wind Is in the Sails? Erie Chamber of Commerce Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations September 20, 2017 Real GDP Growth