Riverside Rising Economic Outlook for the Region April 2015

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1 Analysis. Answers Riverside Rising Economic Outlook for the Region April 2015 Beacon Economics, LLC

California fact versus fiction Looking back a few years (2009 / 2010) everyone was saying that CA would fail like Greece or Detroit, but things look different now.

2 California fact versus fiction Looking back a few years (2009 / 2010) everyone was saying that CA would fail like Greece or Detroit, but things look different now. What has happened to turn things around? California Hype: High taxes, Over regulated People / businesses fleeing Reality Cyclical issues being confused with structural ones Business Climate is not that important Certain industries more vulnerable than others, but others doing great State on top of growth again Biggest issue is resistance to growth, particularly in coastal regions 2

3 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Job Estimates Year on Year Change California Payrolls Change Growth United States 3,212, % New York State 156, % California 498, % Texas 392, % Index Payroll Employment 3 Jan 11 May 11 Sep 11 Jan 12 May 12 Sep 12 Jan 13 May 13 Sep 13 Jan 14 May 14 Sep 14 Jan 15 Jan 95 Aug 96 Mar 98 Oct 99 May 01 Dec 02 Jul 04 Feb 06 Sep 07 Apr 09 Nov 10 Jun 12 Jan 14 Old Revised California Balance US

4 IE Employment Trends SA Data Mar-15 Y-o-Y Gr San Jose 1,044, % Fresno 323, % Inland Empire 1,325, % Orange Cnt 1,536, % Santa Barbara 182, % Stockton 213, % Sacramento 909, % San Diego 1,376, % Modesto 164, % Los Angeles 4,298, % Bakersfield 260, % East Bay 1,080, % Sonoma 194, % Ventura 296, % Year over Year (%, SA) Nonfarm Employment Growth Jan 13 Mar 13 May 13 Jul 13 Sep 13 Nov 13 Jan 14 Mar 14 May 14 Jul 14 Sep 14 Nov 14 Jan 15 Mar 15 Inland Empire California 4

5 Local Jobs Mar-15 YoY Gr Total, All Industries 1,340, % Logistics 86, % Administrative 94, % Professional 43, % Wholesale Trade 62, % Construction 78, % Financial Activities 44, % Hospitality 153, % Health Care 178, % Other Services 44, % Educational 20, % Government 235, % Manufacturing 90, % Retail Trade 165, % Information 11, % County Jobs Riverside San Bernardino 5

6 Taxable Sales Riverside County ($ Bill., SA) Riverside Taxable Sales Q1 06 Q4 06 Q3 07 Q2 08 Q1 09 Q4 09 Q3 10 Q2 11 Q1 12 Q4 12 Q3 13 Q2 14 Category 2013 YTD 2014 YTD Change (%) Autos and Transportation Building and Construction Business and Industry Food and Drugs Fuel and Service Stations General Consumer Goods Restaurants and Hotels Total

7 Other Measure Business Activity Non Residential Permits Hotels Room Rate Palm Springs $164.0 $174.7 Riverside $91.7 $97.5 Temecula $111.8 $116.5 Occupancy Palm Springs 60.4% 62.0% Riverside 67.2% 69.7% Temecula 73.5% 77.7% 450, ,000 Ontario Passenger Traffic (SA) 0 Jan 04 Apr 05 Jul 06 Oct 07 Jan 09 Apr 10 Jul 11 Oct 12 Jan 14 New Alterations 350, , ,000 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 7

8 Business and Wages 150 Establishments (Indexed) $780 Weekly Earnings: Riverside 140 $760 $ $ $700 $ $660 $ $ CA Riverside $600 $580 $

9 The IE Economy Rank City GMP Gr 17 San Diego % 18 Denver % 19 Portland % 20 Baltimore % 21 St. Louis % 22 Charlotte % 23 Pittsburgh % 24 Inland Empire % 25 Indianapolis % 26 Tampa % 27 Cleveland % 28 Cincinnati % 29 Kansas City % Share LQ Government 19.3% 7.1% Retail trade 8.9% 3.2% Logistics 5.2% 2.4% Construction 5.3% 1.6% Real estate 15.5% 1.5% Other services 2.8% 0.7% Administrative 3.8% 0.7% Wholesale trade 6.6% 0.7% Health care 8.0% 0.7% Accommodation 3.2% 0.4% Arts, entertainment 0.8% -0.2% Educational services 0.6% -0.5% Information 2.0% -3.5% Manufacturing 8.1% -3.8% Finance 2.7% -4.2% Professional 3.3% -4.3% 9

10 Commuting Outbound Commuting 350,000 Riverside Household Payroll Gap 300, , , , ,000 50, Commute out of Home County (%)

11 The Commuter Base 700, , , , , , ,000 Median Homes Prices Jan 11 May 11 Sep 11 Jan 12 May 12 Sep 12 Jan 13 May 13 Sep 13 Jan 14 May 14 Sep 14 Jan 15 Los Angeles Orange Riverside San Bernardino Who are the Commuters? By Income Local Commuters Under $20k 41.4% 24.0% $20k to $50k 34.6% 34.3% $50k to $100k 18.3% 31.9% $100k plus 5.7% 9.8% By Education Local Commuters No High School 17.1% 13.2% High School 26.8% 22.8% Some College 35.6% 36.4% Bachelors Degree 13.1% 18.8% Grad./Prof. Degree 7.3% 8.8% 11

12 550, , , , , , , , ,000 Residential Real Estate Median Home Prices 14,000 Existing Home Sales 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Q1 05 Q1 06 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Riverside County California 0 Q1 05 Q4 05 Q3 06 Q2 07 Q1 08 Q4 08 Q3 09 Q2 10 Q1 11 Q4 11 Q3 12 Q2 13 Q1 14 Q4 14 Riverside (SA) 12

13 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Residential Real Estate Distressed Mortgages Housing Inventory Q1 94 Q3 95 Q1 97 Q3 98 Q1 00 Q3 01 Q1 03 Q3 04 Q1 06 Q3 07 Q1 09 Q3 10 Q1 12 Q3 13 Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Months of Supply Defaults Foreclosures Riverside Orange County 13

14 Residential Real Estate Monthly Rent 1,150 1,100 1,050 1, Inland Empire Apartment Market Q4 04 Q4 05 Q4 06 Q4 07 Q4 08 Q4 09 Q4 10 Q4 11 Q4 12 Q4 13 Q Vacancy Rate (%) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Riverside County Permits Rent Vacancy Residential Units 14

15 Supply Demand Imbalances 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% State Housing / Population Imbalance Share Population Share Residential Permits Vacancy State Owner Renter Both Florida 2.5% 9.2% 4.9% Texas 1.6% 7.9% 4.0% Illinois 1.8% 6.2% 3.3% New York 1.6% 4.2% 2.8% California 1.3% 4.2% 2.6% MSA Miami 2.1% 7.4% 4.2% Dallas 1.4% 7.2% 3.7% Inland Empire 1.9% 6.5% 3.7% Chicago 1.9% 5.6% 3.2% New York 1.6% 4.3% 2.9% San Diego 1.4% 4.1% 2.7% Washington, DC 1.0% 5.1% 2.5% Los Angeles 1.0% 3.7% 2.4% San Francisco 0.9% 3.0% 1.9% 15

16 Population Population (Millions) Riverside County Population Annual Growth (%) 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% Population Growth % % Riverside County California 16

17 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 Forecast Nonfarm Employment (000s, SA) Q4 04 Q1 06 Q2 07 Q3 08 Q4 09 Q1 11 Q2 12 Q3 13 Q4 14 Q1 16 Q2 17 Q3 18 Q4 19 Unemployment Rate (%) Median Price ($000s, SA) Labor Market Forecast Nonfarm Employment Forecast Unemployment Rate Forecast Q4 04 Q4 05 Q4 06 Q4 07 Q4 08 Q4 09 Q4 10 Q4 11 Q4 12 Q4 13 Q4 14 Q4 15 Q4 16 Q4 17 Q4 18 Q4 19 Q4 20 Sales (000s, SA) Residential Real Estate Forecast Sales Forecast Median Home Price Forecast

18 Forecast Residential Permits (000 Units, SA) Q4 04 Q1 06 Q2 07 Q3 08 Q4 09 Q1 11 Q2 12 Q3 13 Q4 14 Q1 16 Q2 17 Q3 18 Q4 19 Nonres Permit Values ($ Millions, SA) Construction Permit Forecast Residential Permits Forecast Nonresidential Permits Forecast 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Taxable Sales Forecast Q4 16 Q4 17 Q4 18 Q4 19 Q4 20 Q4 04 Taxable Sales ($ Millions, SA) Q4 05 Q4 06 Q4 07 Q4 08 Q4 09 Q4 10 Q4 11 Q4 12 Q4 13 Q4 14 Q4 15 Taxable Sales Forecast

Our Services Economic Forecasting Regional Intelligence Reports Business & Market Analysis Real Estate Market Analysis Ports & Infrastructure Analysis Economic Impact Analysis

19 Our Services Economic Forecasting Regional Intelligence Reports Business & Market Analysis Real Estate Market Analysis Ports & Infrastructure Analysis Economic Impact Analysis Public Policy Analysis To view or download this presentation please visit: For additional information visit 19

2015 Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook. Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC October 8, 2014

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