Guy Bisson, Ampere Analysis

Transcription

1 Global Cable Trends: Poland s place in the world of cable Guy Bisson, Ampere Analysis October

2 Multi-play RGUs (m) Globally, cable leads in multi-play subscriptions with over 800m multi-play RGUs 1000 Global multi-play RGUs by technology Shows global multiplay RGUs across TV, Broadband, Fixed telephony and OTT TV by primary technology Satellite Terrestrial IPTV Cable OTT 2

3 Pay TV homes (m) And in TV at over 500m although OTT catching fast 600 Pay TV RGUs by technology Satellite Cable IPTV Terrestrial OTT 3

4 TV subscribers (m) Asia is a huge cable TV region, driven by China and India 600 Cable TV subscribers by region Asia Pacific North America Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe Central and South America Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East and North Africa 4

5 RGUs (m) Europe had 155m cable RGUs by end 2016, 50% are TV contracts Western and Central Eastern European cable RGUs 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20 10% Pay TV Fixed-line Broadband Fixed Telephony % TV 0% 5

6 Competition: Telco TV has grown rapidly on the back of leveraging the bundle 100% Western Europe: Share of pay TV subscribers by technology (%) 90% 27% 28% 29% 28% 27% 26% 25% 26% 26% 26% 27% 26% 26% 26% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 80% 70% 60% 70% 66% 63% 60% 56% 53% 50% 48% 46% 44% 42% 40% 40% 39% 38% 38% 37% 37% 37% 50% 40% 30% 2% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 18% 21% 23% 25% 28% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 35% 35% 10% 0% IPTV Cable Terrestrial Satellite 6

7 And by undercutting TV incumbents Monthly ARPUs ( ) Western Europe, 2017 IPTV Cable Terrestrial Satellite

8 Regional profiles show varying role for cable in multi-play and TV Cab/Sat led Share of multi-play RGUs by tech (2016) Cable share of paid TV RGUs (2016) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 10% 2% 6% 10% 4% 19% 13% 24% 7% 5% 3% 15% 19% 27% 7% 9% 10% 18% Telco-led 5% 18% 6% Telco/ Cable 22% 2% 7% 14% 2% 7% 7% 6% 31% 33% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 10% 7% 39% 12% 42% 24% 3% 24% 30% 11% 12% 15% 62% 50% 17% 6% 28% 0% CEE W Europe Asia-Pac North America 0% CEE W Europe Asia-Pac N. America Cable Terrestrial Satellite IPTV PSTN/ISDN DSL FTTP OTT Cable IPTV Satellite Terrestrial OTT 8

9 Cable RGUs/Home Although cable contract growth has been strong in Europe 2,5 2 Cable global average: 1.6 RGUs/home Cable operators: change in RGUs/home over time Poland Cable average: 1.7 RGUs/home 1,5 1 0,5 0 Western Europe Sub-Saharan Africa Central and South America Middle East and North Africa North America Asia Pacific Central and Eastern Europe

10 Telecoms RGUs/home But telcos are catching in all regions thanks to TV 2 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 Telecoms operators: Change in RGUs/home over time Line shows cable average 0 Western Europe Sub-Saharan Africa Central and South America Middle East and North Africa North America Asia Pacific Central and Eastern Europe

11 Meaning the cable vs. Telco revenue mix is converging Global cable 2005 revenue mix 19% Global telco 2005 revenue mix 15% 29% 13% 72% 52% Fixed Telephony Pay TV Fixed-line Broadband Fixed Telephony Pay TV Fixed-line Broadband 11

12 Although, globally, cable still relies heavily on TV 33% Global cable 2016 revenue mix 18% 27% But a distinct difference exists in the role of TV Poland cable % 38% Global telco 2016 revenue mix 34% 49% Fixed Telephony Pay TV Fixed-line Broadband 65% 28% Fixed Telephony Pay TV Fixed-line Broadband 12

13 India Russia Nigeria Thailand New Zealand China Slovak Republic Lithuania Croatia Romania South Korea France Malaysia Peru Hungary Brazil Bulgaria Sweden Latvia Kenya Czech Republic Slovenia Argentina Turkey Poland Germany Mexico Angola Estonia Hong Kong Colombia Australia Japan Austria Spain Portugal Cyprus Malta Luxembourg Finland Belgium Denmark Netherlands Switzerland Chile Ireland Norway UK Singapore Israel Canada USA Ampere Analysis 2017 Monthly ARPU ($) Global average cable multi-play ARPU stands at $ Cable multi-play ARPU ranking 2016 Poland is bang-on the global average 20,64 ARPU per unique home (all services) 13

14 Multi-play annual revenue ($m) Poland ranks 7 th in terms of gross value for cable multi-play in Europe Cable multi-play revenue ranking in Europe

15 Cable TV penetration 2005: Cable TV drove market with multiple high penetration/low ARPU markets South_Korea Cable TV penetration vs Multi-play ARPU (2005) Netherlands Belgium Switzerland Malta Luxembourg 60 Argentina Germany Sweden Hungary Romania Austria China Estonia Bulgaria Slovenia Latvia Poland India Lithuania Czech_Republic RussiaThailand Chile Turkey Mexico Croatia Peru Colombia Brazil Nigeria Cyprus Canada Denmark USA Israel Portugal Finland Singapore Slovak_Republic Hong_Kong Ireland Norway Australia UK Japan France Spain Multi-play monthly ARPU ($) 15

16 Cable TV penetration Today, penetration has dropped, but ARPU has grown substantially Cable TV penetration vs Multi-play ARPU (2016) Belgium Netherlands Finland Romania Germany Malta China Canada Denmark Switzerland Argentina Singapore Hungary Sweden USA Austria Russia Luxembourg South_Korea Slovenia Israel Lithuania Estonia Portugal Hong_Kong India Poland Australia Bulgaria Mexico Norway Thailand Slovak_Republic Chile Czech_Republic Colombia Latvia Brazil Japan Cyprus Turkey Ireland UK Croatia Spain Nigeria France Peru Multi-play monthly ARPU ($) 16

17 Monthly ARPU ($) ARPU contribution (%) In CEE, broadband has become the key contributor to ARPU ARPU contribution by service (2016) ARPU contribution by service (2016) % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 10% 19,78% 29,12% 35,63% 29,07% 41,82% 44,59% 15,14% 52,50% 50,40% 14,26% 34,46% 33,24% 23,60% 30,75% 45,65% 11,24% 26,43% 62,33% 0 Global Western Europe CEE Asia Pacific MENA Poland 0% Global Western Europe CEE Asia Pacific MENA Poland Pay TV Fixed-line Broadband Fixed Telephony Pay TV Fixed-line Broadband Fixed Telephony 17

18 Cable share of pay TV (%) Norway Hong_Kong Poland Brazil Chile Mexico Estonia Slovenia Russia South_Korea Malta Israel Czech_Republic Lithuania Hungary Singapore USA Netherlands Canada Ampere Analysis 2017 No cable Mid-level cable Cable share of pay TV (%) Very low cable Cable share of pay TV (%) Very high cable Cable share of pay TV (%) Big Western markets have low cable TV penetration relative to other platforms 100% 80% 60% 40% 0% 100% 80% 60% 40% 0% 100% 80% 60% 40% 0% 100% 80% 60% 40% 0% 18

19 Cable share of pay TV Consolidation monitor: Largest cable co share of cable TV RGUs by country 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 10% Great place for consolidation Nigeria Angola Low consolidation & strong cable pay TV position China India Lithuania Low consolidation & weak cable pay TV position Cable consolidation and cable pay TV positioning Finland Canada Poland Austria South_Korea Hungary Russia Thailand Germany USA Mexico Poland post MM Polska combination Bulgaria Japan Switzerland Norway Latvia Argentina Colombia Belgium Denmark Romania Sweden Czech_Republic Estonia Slovak_Republic Slovenia Spain Australia Luxembourg Chile Peru Netherlands Brazil Portugal Malta Singapore Israel Hong_Kong Cyprus Ireland UK Turkey Croatia Kenya France 0% 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Largest cable operator share of cable High consolidation & weak cable pay TV position High Consolidation & strong cable pay TV position Great place to be 19

20 Cord-cutting* is not just a US (or a cable) phenomenon Terrestrial # Countries seeing a decline in pay TV on platform (2016) 13 Satellite 26 IPTV 6 Cable Cord-cutting being a net decline in customer numbers during the period. 20

21 Nonetheless, 28 cable markets declined in 2016, while growth was focused in Asia Top 10 cable cord-cutting markets Top 10 cable growth markets Globally, 28 cable markets saw cordcutting in Poland largely flat in Cable TV change 2016 Cable TV change

22 While price is important, bundles and good broadband still give competitive edge Polish cable customer motivations for taking TV service Bundled TV Shows liked Additional features (DVR/multiroom) Best HD Provides all sports 0% 5% 10% 15% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Polish cable customer motivations for taking Broadband Speeds good for watching video Bundled No data cap Fastest speeds Best wifi/router 0% 5% 10% 15% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Based on all reasons. Excludes Price was reasonable which is always top reason. Polish cable company customers 22

23 Paid TV combinations: increasing role of SVoD as a premium channel substitute? Europe SVoD in combination with pay TV and/or premium channels is much bigger segment than pay + premium channel USA Pay TV Pay TV/Premium Channel/SVoD Pay TV/SVoD SVoD Pay TV/Premium Channel Premium Channel/SVoD Premium Channel Pay TV/Premium Channel/SVoD Pay TV/SVoD SVoD Pay TV Pay TV/Premium Channel Premium Channel/SVoD Premium Channel 0% 5% 10% 15% 25% 0% 5% 10% 15% 25% 30% 35% Premium Channel Premium Channel/SVoD Premium Channel Premium Channel/SVoD Pay TV/Premium Channel SVoD Pay TV/Premium Channel Pay TV Pay TV/SVoD Pay TV/Premium Channel/SVoD SVoD Pay TV/SVoD Pay TV Pay TV/Premium Channel/SVoD 23

24 Polish cable customers are stacking SVoD with cable and traditional premium TV Selected service stacking in Polish cable homes HBO 36% Netflix 1.5x Player.Pl 20.6% 25.8% 17% Polish Cable Customer 2.0x 1.2x 28% 14% Canal+ Film Polish cable customer Amazon 8% Prime Video 1.2x 24

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