The American Electorate of the 21st Century. Morley Winograd and Michael D. Hais NDN Fellows and Co-authors of Millennial Makeover

Transcription

1 The American Electorate of the 21st Century Morley Winograd and Michael D. Hais NDN Fellows and Co-authors of Millennial Makeover

2 New American Demographics

3 The New America: America Is a Dynamic and Changing Nation Is about to be shaped by the Millennial Generation, the largest and most diverse generation in U.S. history Is more ethnically diverse Is more Southern and Western Is better educated Has a smaller manual labor force, especially among white population

4 There are now about 17 million more Millennials alive than Baby Boomers and 27 million more Millennials as there are members of Generation X. Total U.S. Births, in Millions, 1950 to Millions of Births BOOMER GEN-XERS MILLENNIALS Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census (2000)

5 Millennials Will Increasingly Dominate the Electorate Over the Next Decade 10 99% % 17% 51% 61% 24% 36% Percentage of Millennials Eligible to Vote Millennial Contribution to Voting Age Population

6 The Rise of a Multi-racial America Percentage of the U.S. Population that is White drops by 25% White - Non-Hispanic Minority Source: US Census Bureau

7 On Track to Becoming Majority Minority 10 The U.S. Will be 47% White by White, Non-Hispanic Minority Source: U.S. Census, March, 2004; Pew Research Center, 2/11/08

8 Hispanic Population Boom By 2050, Hispanics will be more than ¼ of the US population Total Population Hispanic Population Source: US Census Bureau and Pew Hispanic Center, 2/11/08

9 Americans Moving South and West 100 Largest Cities Shift from Northeast to South and West Northeast Midwest South West Source: Census.gov

10 The Dream of Mass Education is a Reality in 21 st Century America Adults Less Than Complete High School High School Graduates Some College College Graduates Source: US Census Bureau

11 The Labor Force Transformed Farmers/Other Manual Clerical/Sales Managerial Professional 5% 1 15% 25% 35% Source: US Census Bureau

12 Southern Whites White workers FDR s Dominant Voter Coalition Central, Eastern, and Southern European immigrants and their children African-Americans in America s big cities

13 The Democratic New Deal Coalition Dominated American Politics in the Mid-20th Century Won the presidency in 7 of 9 elections, Controlled Congress in 16 of 18 Congresses, Transformed economic policy from laissez-faire to governmental activism Transformed foreign policy from isolationism to interventionism Moved America from segregation toward racial equality

14 Nixon s Republican Southern Strategy Cracks the New Deal Coalition Won the presidency in 7 of 10 elections, Controlled Congress consistently from Halted or rolled back New Deal and Great Society economic programs Campaigned on divisive social and racial issues

15 The White South Leaves the Democratic Coalition Partisanship of Southern White Presidential Popular Vote Democratic Republican Independent Data sources: 1932 & 1952: Tabulated popular vote totals : New York Times exit polls

16 The Disappearing White Working Class Occupation of White Voters by Decade 45% 35% 25% 15% 1 5% Manual Clerical/Sales Professional/Managerial Data source: NES Cumulative File

17 White Workers Leave the Democratic Coalition Occupation of White Democratic Voters by Decade Manual Clerical/Sales Professional/Managerial Data source: NES Cumulative File

18 Millennial Strategy Program Frank N. Magid Associates is widely recognized as the preeminent generational insights organization Formed in 2005, The Millennial Strategy Program is grounded in Magid s 50 years of primary research expertise and illuminated with deep knowledge of social, cultural, and political events. Through extensive focus on the role of Baby Boomers, Gen Xers, and Millennials, the firm has unparalleled insight into the ways generational movements define worldwide culture, business success, and influence political and social events. We look at generations as much more than age-groups, which is why we study historical events and use multiple methodologies and research techniques Over the past six years, the Millennial Strategy Program has conducted over 60,000 online interviews, hundreds of inhome and other ethnographic sessions, and led numerous qualitative group discussions

19 Millennial Clients ABC-Disney Television Group ABC Family Anheuser-Busch AOL Bonneville International Clear Channel Communications Comcast Cable Conde Nast Cox Enterprises Current TV DirecTV Dispatch Group Dow Jones Company Evening Post Publishing General Growth Properties Hearst Corporation Lee Enterprises MediaFlo Media General Meredith Corporation NBC New York Times News Corp Paramount Television Saban Capital Sony Pictures Television Sony PlayStation/SCEA Tribune Interactive Warner Bros Television Washington Mutual

20 Michael Hais Extensive media, entertainment, and political experience. Retired VP-Entertainment Research, 22 years with Frank N. Magid Associates, world s most influential media research firm. Designed and analyzed quantitative surveys and qualitative projects at Magid. Democratic pollster in Michigan, 1970s and 1980s. Ph.D. political science, dissertation on party coalitions and realignment. Co-authored, with Morley Winograd, Millennial Makeover, New York Times 2008 top-ten book.

21 An Emerging New and Potentially Dominant 21st Century Democratic Coalition Young voters African-Americans Hispanics Women The Northeast and West Highly educated Americans

22 Young Voters Increasingly Democratic Since 1980s Partisanship of Presidential Vote Democrat Republican Independent Young voters were Baby Boomers (born ) in 1976 and The first members of Generation X (born ) voted in The first Millennials (born ) voted in Data source: New York Times exit polls

23 African-Americans and Hispanics: Democrats for Decades Democratic Percentage of African-American and Hispanic Presidential Vote African-American Hispanic Data source: New York Times exit polls

24 Women Increasingly Democratic Since 1980s Partisanship of Female Presidential Vote Democrat Republican Independent Since 1980 a "gender gap," women averaged 8% more Democratic than men. Data source: New York Times exit polls

25 Northeast and West Increasingly Democratic Since 1980s Democratic Percentage of Northeast and West Presidential Vote Northeast West Data source: New York Times exit polls

26 College Graduates and Postgraduates Increasingly Democratic Since 1980s Democratic Percentage of College Graduate And Postgraduate Presidential Vote College graduates Postgraduates Data source: New York Times exit polls

27 A New Democratic Party Majority National Party ID* 55% 45% % Democrats Republicans * Partisans and leaners combined Data source: Pew Survey Research Center

28 The 21 st Century Democratic Coalition Is Majority Female % 55% Democratic Identifiers/Leaners 56% 44% Republican Identifiers/Leaners Female Male Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010

29 The 21 st Century Democratic Coalition Is Younger % 32% 32% 21% Democratic Identifiers/Leaners 25% 35% 26% 14% Republican Identifiers/Leaners Millennial Generation Generation X Baby Boomer Generation Silent Generation A majority of Democrats are from the two youngest generations Six in ten Republicans are from the two oldest generations Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010

30 The 21 st Century Democratic Coalition Is More Ethnically Diverse % 5% 11% 3% 6% 1% 2% 8 14% % 68% 1 Democratic Identifiers/Leaners Republican Identifiers/Leaners White African-American Hispanic Asian Other Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010

31 The 21st Century Democratic Coalition Skews to the Northeast and West % 23% 15% 23% 22% Democratic Identifiers/Leaners Republican Identifiers/Leaners South Midwest West Northeast Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010

32 Both Male and Female Millennials Identify as Democrats % 22% 21% 22% 55% 1 Male Millennials Female Millennials Democratic Identifiers/Leaners Republican Identifiers/Leaners Independents Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010

33 Millennial Democratic Loyalties Cross Ethnic Lines % 22% 47% White Millennials 9% 16% 75% African-American Millennials 15% 19% 66% Hispanic Millennials Democratic Identifiers/Leaners Independents Republican Identifiers/Leaners Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010

34 New Attitudes

35 America is no Longer a Center-Right Nation Americans favor activist government Americans want government to promote economic equality Americans favor multilateralism in foreign policy

36 Conventional Wisdom to the Contrary, Most Americans Continue to Support Activist Government Favor government staying out of society & economy 26% Favor government actively trying to solve problems 54% 58% 2009* 2010* Not sure 17% 15% 1 6 * 2009 sample Millennial, Gen-X, and Boomer Generations only percentage based on those generations only. Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010

37 The New 21 st Century Democratic Coalition Favors Activist Government Total Mention Female Millennial Gen-X African-American Hispanic Favor government actively trying to solve problems Favor government staying out of society & economy Not sure Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010

38 Conventional Wisdom to the Contrary, Most Americans Continue to Support Policies Promoting Economic Equality Ensure that all Americans have basic standard of living and income even if it increases spending 53% Let each person get along on their own even if some have more 32% 2009* 2010* Not sure 17% 18% 1 6 * 2009 sample Millennial, Gen-X, and Boomer Generations only percentage based on those generations only. Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010

39 The New 21 st Century Democratic Coalition Favors Economic Equality Total Mention Female Millennial Gen-X African- American Hispanic Ensure that all have basic standard of living and income even if increases spending Let each person get along on their own even if some have more Not sure Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010

40 Most Americans Continue to Support Multilateralism in Foreign Policy Best way to protect national security is through building strong alliances with other nations 53% 55% Best way to protect national security is by relying on military strength 29% 31% 2009* 2010* Not sure 16% 16% 1 6 * 2009 sample Millennial, Gen-X, and Boomer Generations only percentage based on those generations only. Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010

41 The New 21 st Century Democratic Coalition Favors Multilateralism in Foreign Policy 6 1 Total Mention Female Millennial Gen-X African- American Hispanic Best way to protect national security is through building strong alliances with other nations Best way to protect national security is by relying on military strength Not sure Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010

42 New Mobilization Strategies

43 Contrary to Conventional Wisdom the Democrats Can Win in 2010 If They Mobilize the New 21 st Century Coalition 2010 Congressional Vote Intention Total Mention Female Millennial Gen-X African- American Hispanic Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate Other candidate Undecided Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010

44 Mobilization Issues: Getting the Coalition Registered Total Mention Female Millennial Gen-X African- American Registered to Vote Moved since 2008 Hispanic Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010

45 Mobilization Issues: Getting the Coalition Inspired and to the Polls Total Mention Female Millennial Gen-X African- American Hispanic Absolutely certain will vote in 2010 Very important which party wins in 2010 Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010

46 Massachusetts: A Case Study in Losing by Not Using the New Coalition 45% 35% 25% 15% 1 5% 2008 General Election Contribution to Electorate 2010 U.S. Senate Special Election Contribution to Electorate year olds year olds Minorities Democratic Identifiers Self-perceived liberals Majorities of all groups, except 30-44s, voted Democratic in both 2008 and 2010 Data sources: 2008 CNN Election Day exit poll 2010 PPP Final pre-election poll, January 16-17, 2010