The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services
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1 The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services
2 Growth Is Cooling; But a Soft Landing Is Likely (Real GDP, annualized rate of growth) Real GDP ex. Residential Fixed Investment contribution
3 U.S. Economic Growth by Sector (Percent change unless otherwise noted) Real GDP Consumption Light Vehicle Sales (Millions) Residential Investment Housing Starts (Millions) Business Fixed Investment Government Exports Imports
4 Other Key Indicators (Percent unless otherwise noted) Employment (Percent growth) Unemployment Rate CPI Inflation Oil Prices (WTI, US$/bbl) Core CPI Inflation Federal Funds Rate year Government Bond Yield Dollar Index (Major Currencies, 2000=1)
5 The Housing Slowdown
6 Residential Construction Has Overshot 6.5 (Residential fixed investment, percent of GDP)
7 Housing Starts Tell a Similar Story 3.0 (Million units)
8 Housing Affordability Has Deteriorated 1.6 A higher index means homes are more affordable Affordability Index for Existing Single-Family Homes Source: National Association of Realtors
9 Notably in the West and North East A higher index means homes are more affordable Mid West West South North East Source: National Association of Realtors
10 House Price Over/Under Valuation (Percent) Santa Barbara, CA Miami, FL Los Angeles, CA Portland, OR Washington, DC San Diego, CA Seattle, WA New York, NY Boston/Quincy, MA Dallas, TX 2006-Q Q2 Source: Global Insight/ National City Bank
11 Dimensions of the Housing Downturn (Percent change from a year ago) New Home Sales (Aug) Down 17% Existing Home Sales (Aug) Down 13% Housing Starts (Aug) Down 20% Builder Confidence (Sep) Median Existing Home Prices (Aug) Down 35 points Down 2%
12 Home Inventory Is Rising Sharply (Months supply at current selling rate, single-family homes) New Homes Existing Homes
13 The Outlook: Home Sales To Fall Further (Million units) (Million Units) New Home Sales (left scale) Existing Home Sales (right scale)
14 The Outlook: Starts Down Further, Prices Falling in 2007 (Million units) (Year/year percent change) Housing Starts (Left) Avg. Existing Single-Family Home Price (Right)
15 A Stretched Consumer
16 The Personal Saving Rate Has Fallen Below Zero (Personal savings rate, percent of disposable income) 6 5 9/11 Microsoft Dividend Post 9/11 vehicle incentives -2 Katrina
17 Spending On Home Furnishings Will Be Hurt By The Housing Downturn (Percent change, year-over-year, real dollars) Consumer Durables - Furniture etc, ex. Computers and Software Residential Fixed Investment
18 Housing Wealth Has Supported Consumer Spending 250% (Percent of household disposable income) 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% Housing Wealth Housing Equity Mortgage Debt
19 Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Has Begun To Ease (Percent of disposable income) H1 Net Equity Extraction Source: Federal Reserve - Kennedy/Greenspan data updated as of September 2006
20 Some Evidence on Use of Funds in Refinancings Federal Reserve Survey of Use of Funds in 2001/2002 Refinancings Share of Dollars Home Improvements Repayment of other debts Consumer Expenditures Stock market or other financial investment Real estate or business investment Taxes 35% 26% 16% 11% 10% 2%
21 Job Creation Is Still Supporting the Consumer But By How Much? (Millions of jobs created) Preliminary estimate of payroll revision 0-1 Mar02 Mar03 Mar03 Mar04 Mar04 Mar05 Mar05 Mar06 6 months at annual rate Mar06 Sep06 Payroll Employment Household Employment
22 Lower Gasoline Prices Are Giving Relief To Consumers (Billions of dollars, annual rate) Every 10 cents off the pump price saves consumers $12 billion per year (0.12% of disposable income). (Dollars per gallon) Q1 06Q2 06Q3 06Q4 07Q1 07Q2 07Q3 07Q4 08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 Consumer Spending on Gasoline and Motor Oil (Left) Pump Price of Gasoline, all grades (Right) 2.0
23 Some Rebuilding of Savings Likely But No Consumer Crash 5 (Percent growth, real) Real Consumption Real Disposable Income
24 Business Investment Is Supportive
25 Equipment Spending Should Bounce Back (Percent change annual rate, real spending) Equipment and Software
26 Architecture Billings Have Signaled Higher Nonres. Construction Architecture Billings Index* (Left scale) Real Nonresidential Construction, ex. utilities (Right scale, % change y/y) * Source: American Institute of Architects
27 Business Capital Spending: Construction Taking The Lead 20 (Percent change from a year earlier, real spending) Equipment and Software Buildings
28 Foreign Trade: Stabilizing?
29 Current Account Deficit: Peaking At Last? 200 (Billions of dollars) (Percent of GDP) , Current Account Deficit Deficit as % of GDP
30 U.S. Export Growth Is Catching World Trade Growth 16 (Percent change, real) U.S. Export Growth World Import Growth (Excluding U.S.)
31 Inflation and Interest Rates
32 Headline Inflation Is Being Driven by Oil Prices 4.0 (Percent change from a year earlier) CPI
33 Core Consumer Inflation Should Peak Soon 3.0 (Ex-food and energy, percent change from a year earlier) Core CPI Core Consumption (PCE) Price Index
34 Housing Has Driven The Rise in Core PCE Inflation 6 (3-month moving average; annualized rate of inflation) Core PCE Housing Services Other
35 Don t Exaggerate Labor Cost Pressures (Percent change, year-on-year) Official Unit Labor Costs Alternative Using the Employment Cost Index
36 We Expect the Fed To Cut Rates in (Percent) Federal Funds 10-Year Treasury Yield
37 Federal Fiscal Outlook
38 The Federal Deficit Has Beaten Expectations (Percent of GDP) Global Insight President's FY2007 Budget
39 Federal Spending Paths (Percent of GDP) Global Insight President's FY2007 Budget
40 Federal Revenue Paths (Percent of GDP) Global Insight President's FY2007 Budget
41 Where Did The Revenues Come From? Fiscal Year 2006 Federal Revenue Gains Individual Income Tax Withheld Non-Withheld Corporate Income Tax Social Insurance Other Total Revenues $ Billions $117 $62 $54 $76 $31 $30 $253 % Increase
42 Warning: The Profits Boom Is Nearing Its End 40 (Percent change in pre-tax profits)
43 Bottom Line Below-trend growth in prospect Housing plunging; consumption growth to ease modestly Business investment and exports remain supportive Headline inflation will fall sharply now that oil prices are lower Core inflation is too high for the Fed s liking but is peaking The Fed will be cutting rates in 2007 U.S. dollar to fall further Risks (1): Housing downturn may turn into a rout Risks (2): Vulnerability to another energy shock remains high
44 Thank You! Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services
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