The Great Debates of 2016

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1 Bruce Mehlman Sept. 20, Days Until Election Day The Great Debates of 2016 CONTENTS Do Debates Matter? (2-4) Trump vs. Clinton (6-7) On Viewership (10-15)

2 Do Debates Really Matter? 2

3 The Greatest Political Theater 1960: Nixon Wins Radio, Loses TV 1988: Passionless Dukakis Disappoints 1980: Presidential Reagan Reassures 1992: Fresh Perot Surges 3

4 Debates Can Surely Shift Momentum Bush Lost 75% of His Lead in 04; Obama Fell Behind in Bush '04 Lead 5.4 Obama '12 Lead 5 Lead in Average of Polls D-2 D-1 DEBATE D+1 D+2 D+3 D+4 D+5 D+6 D Days before / after 1 st debate

5 But Experts Detect Smaller Impact Wonkblog (Dylan Matthews, 2012) The effects of debates on eventual votes are likely mild, and, in most cases, effectively nil. Moreover, what effects do exist are often caused by factors wholly beyond the candidates' control, like media coverage, attractiveness, and whether voters are watching a Nats game in the other panel of their TV. Source: 5

6 Trump vs. Clinton Sizing Up the State of the Race & the Combatants 6

7 While Recent Momentum Has Favored Trump Average of the Polls: Clinton +1.3% AVG. POLLING MARGIN WEEKS UNTIL THE ELECTION Source: RealClearPolitics averages as of 5pm 7

8 Clinton Still Holds Electoral College Lead Based on the most current polling Clinton 293 EVs; Trump 234 EVs Obama 2012 state Romney 2012 State Trump Leading >10 Trump Leading 6-10 Trump Leading 1-5 Tied Clinton Leading 1-5 Clinton Leading 6-10 Clinton Leading >10 98 Electoral Votes 23 Electoral Votes 113 Electoral Votes 11 Electoral Votes 69 Electoral Votes 55 Electoral Votes 169 Electoral Votes Alabama Arkansas Idaho Indiana Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Montana Nebraska North Dakota Oklahoma South Dakota Tennessee Utah West Virginia Wyoming Alaska Maine-2 nd dist. Missouri South Carolina Florida Georgia Iowa Mississippi Ohio Texas Arizona Colorado Michigan Nevada North Carolina Virginia Wisconsin Maine Minnesota New Hampshire New Jersey Pennsylvania Rhode Island California Connecticut D.C. Delaware Hawaii Illinois Maryland Massachusetts New Mexico New York Oregon Vermont Washington 8

9 Incredibly Different Candidate Strengths & Weaknesses Tale of the Tape Low Expectations Aggressive style (helped Romney 12, Kerry 04) Very comfortable on TV (this is ultimate Reality TV) Debate experience: 0 prior 1-on-1 debates Lack of policy depth Bait-able into over-reactions (bank account, hand size, e.g.) Appear Presidential (confident, informed, relaxed) Bait Clinton into style errors (e.g. Al Gore sigh ) Make the case for change (does not sound like a politician) STRENGTHS CHALLENGES HOW TO WIN Well-prepared Potential to contrast well (on policy & temperament) Debate experience: 13 prior 1-on-1 debates High expectations Extensive history to defend (votes, Foundation, , etc. questions) Lawyerly style (Struggles with relatability) Provoke Trump into bullying (e.g. Khans, Megan Kelly, McCain, immigrants) Show Trump uninformed, risky (e.g. nuclear triad, geopolitics) Ace hard questions calmly (e.g. Benghazi hearing) 9

10 On Debate Viewership 73% of registered voters are Very / Somewhat Likely to Watch first debate Source: Morning Consult, 9/19/16 10

11 May Be Most-Watched TV of 2016 Most Viewed TV Events in Superbowl Trump vs. Clinton I 100 Estimate Trump's RNC Speech 88th Academy Awards Clinton's DNC Speech NBA Game Rio Olympics 27 Big Bang Theory NCIS NCAA March Madness Final Kentucky Derby 2016 American Idol Finale Game of Thrones Though 9/26 debate up vs. Monday Night Football: Source: Nielsen 11

12 Could be Most-Watched Presidential Debate in History 120 Millions of Americans Who Watched Most-Viewed Debate (and percent of US population) 100% Millions of TV Viewers % % % % 27.5% 27.3% % % % 20.8% 21.4% Estimated 100M 30.8% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% % of U.S. Population Watching Debate 10% % Source: Nielsen (thru 2004); 2000; 2008; 2012; 12

13 Most-Watched Global Event Ever? Unlikely Beijing Olympics 2010 Chilean Miner Rescue 2006 FIFA Finals 1969 Moon Landing 2 billion 1 billion 715 million 530 million 1973 Elvis from Hawaii 2011 Royal Wedding 1963 JFK Funeral 2015 Superbowl 450 million 350 million 180 million 115 million Source: 13

14 Does Debate-Viewing Foreshadow Voter Turnout? Higher Viewership May Mean Greater Turnout Viewership Turnout Percent of Eligible Voters (Voting) & Percent of the US Population (TV) 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 62.8% 36.9% 53.6% 52.8% 53.3% 55.2% 50.3% 35.5% 32.0% 28.5% 27.5% 27.3% 49.0% 13.5% 50.3% 16.5% 55.7% 57.1% 54.9% 21.3% 20.8% 21.4% 0.0% Source: Nielsen (viewership) 14

15 BINGO GAME (in honor of Presidential candidates who are a combined 139 years-old) Fill in Box When Candidate Uses Term Complete Vertical, Horizontal or Diagonal Lines Crooked China Tax Returns Putin Liar Trump University Fraud Mexican Deplorables Iraq War Goldman Sachs Lousy Wedding Gift Stamina Benghazi Radical Islamic Terrorism Family Foundation (either one) FBI Bankrupt State Dinners Winning s Transcripts Atlantic City David Duke Bill Clinton 15

16 To be added to distribution: is one of the nation s most innovative government relations firms, offering strategic solutions to companies, trade associations, non-profits, and entrepreneurs that help them succeed in Washington.

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