Zions Bank Economic Overview. March 14, 2017
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1 Zions Bank Economic Overview March 14, 2017
2 National Economic Conditions
3 Dow 20,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential Election Source: Wall Street Journal
4 Current Level of Consumer Confidence Indicates Economic Prosperity Above 110 indicates economic prosperity Feb 2012 May 2012 Aug 2012 Nov 2012 Feb 2013 May 2013 Aug 2013 Nov 2013 Feb 2014 May 2014 Aug 2014 Nov 2014 Feb 2015 May 2015 Aug 2015 Nov 2015 Feb 2016 May 2016 Aug 2016 Nov 2016 Feb 2017 Source: The Conference Board
5 Expectations of Future Inflation on the Rise
6 Small Business Optimism on the Rise
7 Irrational Exuberance?
8 Why?
9 Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession Thousands Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
10 Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession Thousands Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
11 Index Slower Recovery than Past Recessions Periods from Value Scaled to Recession 2001 Recession 1990 Recession 1981 Recession 1980 Recession 1973 Recession Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
12 February Jobs Report Shows Strength Across all Indicators Indicator February 2017 January 2017 Monthly Change Total Nonfarm Payrolls 145, , ,000 Unemployment Rate 4.7% 4.8% -0.1% Private Payrolls 123, , ,000 Yearly Average Hourly Wage Growth Labor Force Participation 2.8% 2.5% +0.3% 63.0% 62.9% +0.1% Source: Wall Street Journal and Bureau of Labor Statistics
13 235,000 Jobs Added in February Million Jobs Lost Payroll Change 000 s Million Jobs Recovered Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
14 227,000 Jobs Added in January Payroll Change 000 s Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
15 National Employment Change Percent Change in National Employment by Industry: Feb 2016 to Feb 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government -4.2% -0.5% Total: 1.6% 0.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 3.3% 2.3% 3.0% 2.4% 2.0% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted
16 National Employment Change Total Change in Number of Jobs by Industry in Thousands: Feb 2016 to Feb 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted
17 Unemployment Rate Indicates Full Employment % = Full Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
18 Unemployed and Discouraged Workers Down from Last Month U-6 (Underemployed) U-3 (Unemployment) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
19 Long Term Unemployment Too High
20 Unemployment Duration Remains High
21 % Labor Force Participation Among Lowest Level in Almost 40 Years Mar % Apr % Feb % Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Seasonally adjusted
22 % 68.0 Labor Force Participation Rising Slightly Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Seasonally adjusted
23 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Male vs Female Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate 40% 30% Men Women Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
24 Participation Among Women Aged Has Surged
25 4.0% 3.5% Yearly Wage Growth Up Slightly in December Feb % 3.0% 2.5% Average = 2.4% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Growth rate calculated using real chained dollars
26 5.0 Producer Price Index on the Rise Percent Year-to-Year Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted
27 4.5% U.S. Consumer Price Index Yearly Change Rate 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% Inflation Surpasses Fed Target Jul 2011 Oct 2011 Jan 2012 Apr 2012 Jul 2012 Oct 2012 Jan 2013 Apr 2013 Jul 2013 Oct 2013 Jan 2014 Apr 2014 Jul 2014 Oct 2014 Jan 2015 Apr 2015 Jul 2015 Oct 2015 Jan 2016 Apr 2016 July 2016 Oct 2016 Jan 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
28 Growth in Consumer Spending Under Par Personal Consumption Expenditure Yearly Percent Change Percent Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
29 Consumption Drives Growth 5% Total GDP Growth 3% Growth Rate 1% -1% -3% -5% Fixed Investment Inventories Net Exports Government Personal Consumption 4Q GDP 1.9% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
30 = 100 The U.S. Dollar is Strong Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Broad Source: Federal Reserve
31 Euro compared to U.S. Dollar $1.60 $1.50 $1.40 $1.39 $1.30 USD $1.20 $1.10 PARITY $1.00 $0.90 $ $1.05 Source: Investing.com
32 U.S. Dollar Compared to Chinese Yuan $6.00 $6.50 $7.00 $7.50 $8.00 $ China stops the yuan s rise 2001 China joins WTO 2005 China allows the yuan to rise 2010 China allows the yuan to rise Aug 2015 China devalues the yuan by largest amount in 20 years Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
33
34 $1.80 British Pound Dropped to New Low Following Brexit Vote $1.70 $1.60 USD $1.50 $1.40 $1.30 $1.20 $ Source: Investing.com
35 U.S. Total Rig Count Recovering from Low as Oil Prices Rise $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $ Oil Prices 2015 Source: Baker Hughes and U.S. Energy Information Administration Note: Total count includes oil and gas rigs Active Oil Rigs ,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,
36 Car vs Truck Sales Diverging
37 Federal Funds Target Rate Sees 2 nd Increase in Over a Decade Federal Funds Target Rate = Source: U.S. Federal ReserveNote: PCE is total personal consumption expenditures
38 December 2016 Federal Funds Forecast Shows Expectation of More Increases than Previously Projected 4% 3% 2.9% 2.6% 2.9% 3.0% 2% 1% 0.6% 0.6% 1.4% 1.1% 2.1% 1.9% 0% Long Run Sep-16 Dec-16 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
39 Utah Economic Conditions
40 Utah Accolades CNBC: Utah Named 2016 Top State for Business WalletHub: Utah Named 2016 State with Best Economy CNBC: Salt Lake City (18), Ogden (7), and Provo (2) Named Among Top 20 Metro Areas to Start a Business in U.S. Forbes: Utah Named #1 Best State for Business (top stop 5 out of past 6 years) Standard & Poor s, Moody s Investors Service, and Fitch Ratings: Utah One of only 10 States with AAA Bond Rating
41 CA 0.7% OR 1.7% WA 1.8% NV 2.0% ID 1.8% AK 0.6% UT 2.0% AZ 1.7% Utah Population Fastest Growing in U.S. MT 1.0% WY -0.2% CO 1.7% NM 0.0% HI 0.2% Percent Change: 2015 to 2016 U.S. Rate = 0.7% ND 0.1% SD 0.9% NE 0.7% TX 1.6% KS 0.3% 0.0% OK 0.4% MN 0.7% IA 0.4% MO 0.3% AR 0.3% WI 0.2% LA 0.3% IL -0.3% MS 0.0% MI 0.1% IN 0.3% TN 0.9% AL 0.2% 1.5% or more OH 0.1% KY 0.3% 0.7% to 1.4% (at or above U.S. rate) 0.2% to 0.6% 0.0% to 0.1% Population Loss WV -0.5% VT -0.2% PA -0.1% NC 1.1% SC 1.4% GA 1.1% VA 0.5% FL 1.8% NH 0.4% NY 0.0% ME 0.2% DC 1.6% CT -0.2% DE 0.8% MD 0.4% MA 0.4% RI 0.1% NJ 0.1% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
42 Utah Population and Components of Change Total Population 3,600,000 3,300,000 3,000,000 2,700,000 2,400,000 2,100,000 1,800,000 1,500,000 1,200, , , , ,051, , , Components of Population Change Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population f 2018f Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Data from 2014 on from State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group e = estimate, f = forecast
43 Utah Population Growth Rates By County 2014 to 2015 Box Elder 1.2% Tooele 2.2% Davis 1.9% Cache 2.1% Rich 0.8% Weber 1.3% Morgan 4.2% Summit Salt Lake 1.3% 1.3% Utah 2.4% Wasatch 5.0% Duchesne 2.7% Daggett -1.0% Uintah 2.6% State Average = 1.7% Juab 1.3% Carbon -0.7% Increase of 2.5% or Greater Increase of 1.7% to 2.4% Millard 0.7% Sanpete 1.5% Sevier 0.7% Emery -2.5% Grand 0.7% Increase of 1.0% to 1.6% Beaver -1.5% Piute 2.1% Wayne -0.8% Increase of 0.0% to 0.9% Population Loss Iron 2.3% Washington 2.5% Kane -1.4% Garfield -0.1% San Juan 3.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
44 CA 2.0% Percent Change in Employment for States: December 2015 to December 2016 U.S. Rate = 1.5% OR 3.1% WA 3.0% NV 3.0% AK -1.4% ID 1.9% UT 2.8% AZ 1.3% Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Utah Employment Growth 5 th Highest in the Nation MT 0.9% WY -2.8% HI 2.1% CO 1.9% NM -0.3% ND -1.8% SD 1.4% NE 0.7% KS -0.7% TX 1.8% OK -0.3% MN 1.5% IA 0.5% MO 2.3% AR 0.4% WI 1.0% LA -0.2% IL 0.5% MS -1.0% MI 1.7% IN 0.8% TN 1.6% AL 1.0% OH 0.8% KY 0.6% GA 2.4% WV 1.4% VT 0.7% PA 0.5% NC 2.0% SC 1.7% VA 1.3% FL 3.1% NH 1.7% NY 1.2% 2.0% or more 1.5% to 1.9% (at or above the U.S. rate) 1.0% to 1.4% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss ME 0.0% DC 2.3% CT -0.1% DE 0.5% MD 1.1% MA 2.1% RI 0.7% NJ 0.3%
45 Utah Total Employment at New Highs Thousands of Employees Loss of 92,000 jobs from Gain of 264,000 jobs from low in Total Nonfarm Employment Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Total nonfarm seasonally adjusted Note: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand
46 Utah Industries Seeing Growth Percent Change in Utah Employment by Industry: January 2016 to January 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining -11.0% Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Total: 3.2% 4.5% 2.3% 3.7% 0.3% 2.6% 0.6% 3.5% 4.6% 2.3% 2.3% -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
47 Utah Industries Seeing Growth Total Change in Utah Employment by Industry: January 2016 to January 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining -1,000 Construction 3,800 Manufacturing 2,900 Trade, Trans., Utilities 9,700 Information 100 Financial Activity 2,100 Prof. & Bus. Serv. 100 Ed. & Health Serv. 6,600 Leisure & Hospitality 6,100 Other Services Government 900 5,300 Total: 36,600-3,000-1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
48 Utah Employment Change Rates By County Jan 2016 to Jan 2017 State Rate = 3.2% Box Elder 4.5% Tooele 5.2% Juab 1.7% Cache 1.7% Rich 11.9% Weber 3.8% Davis 3.3% Morgan 4.3% Salt Lake 3.7% Utah 4.5% Summit 3.2% Wasatch 6.0% Duchesne -3.3% Carbon -3.9% Daggett 3.8% Uintah -4.9% 5.0% or more 3.2% to 4.9% Millard 5.0% Sanpete 4.1% Sevier 2.1% Emery -4.1% Grand 4.6% 1.0% to 3.1% Beaver -4.4% Piute 4.9% Wayne -2.3% 0.0% to 0.9% Iron 6.4% Garfield 2.4% San Juan 1.2% Loss Washington 5.8% Kane -1.4% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; Not seasonally adjusted
49 OR 4.6% CA 5.2% WA 5.2% NV 5.1% AK 6.7% ID 3.7% UT 3.1% AZ 4.8% Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics UT Unemployment Rates 7 th Lowest in the Nation MT 4.0% HI 2.9% WY 4.8% CO 3.0% NM 6.6% December 2016 U.S. Rate = 4.7% ND 3.0% SD 2.8% NE 3.4% KS 4.2% TX 4.6% OK 5.0% MN 3.9% IA 3.6% MO 4.4% AR 3.9% LA 6.1% WI 4.0% IL 5.7% MS 5.6% MI 5.0% IN 4.0% TN 4.9% AL 6.2% 3.9% or less OH 4.9% KY 4.8% GA 5.4% WV 5.9% VT 3.1% PA 5.6% NC 5.1% SC 4.3% VA 4.1% FL 4.9% NH 2.6% NY 4.9% 4.0% to 4.7% (at or below U.S. rate) 4.8% to 5.5% 5.6% to 5.9% 6.0% or more ME 3.8% DC 5.8% CT 4.4% DE 4.3% MD 4.2% MA 2.8% RI 5.0% NJ 4.7%
50 Utah Unemployment Rates By County December 2016 State Rate = 3.1% Box Elder 3.2% Tooele 3.3% Juab 3.3% Cache 2.7% Weber 3.4% Morgan Davis 2.7% 2.5% Salt Lake 2.8% Utah 2.7% Rich 3.0% Summit 2.9% Wasatch 3.1% Duchesne 7.4% Carbon 5.3% Daggett 3.9% Uintah 7.6% 3.1% or lower 3.2% to 3.9% Millard 3.2% Sanpete 3.7% Sevier 3.8% Emery 5.6% Grand 6.0% 4.0% to 5.9% Beaver 5.0% Piute 5.4% Wayne 7.8% 6.0% to 6.9% Iron 4.0% Garfield 8.2% San Juan 7.5% 7.0% or greater Washington 3.2% Kane 3.3% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
51 CA 4.2% WA 4.6% OR 4.6% NV 4.5% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis UT Personal Income Growth Highest in the Nation AK -0.8% Percent Change in Personal Income : Q Q U.S. = 3.5%; UT = 5.0% ID 3.2% UT 5.0% AZ 3.8% MT 1.5% WY -2.3% HI 4.3% CO 3.5% NM 1.9% ND -0.5% SD 0.9% NE 1.8% KS 2.6% TX 3.0% OK 0.0% MN 3.2% IA 1.9% MO 3.7% AR 3.3% WI 3.0% LA 1.6% IL 3.5% MS 2.9% MI 3.9% IN 4.2% TN 3.2% AL 3.4% 4.0% or more OH 3.3% KY 2.5% GA 4.2% WV 0.4% VT 2.5% PA 2.9% NC 4.0% SC 4.3% VA 3.5% FL 4.8% NH 3.9% NY 2.8% 3.5% to 3.9% (at or above the U.S. rate) 2.0% to 3.4% 0.0% to 1.9% Decrease ME 3.9% DC 4.5% CT 3.4% DE 2.6% MD 4.0% MA 4.1% RI 2.6% NJ 3.4%
52 Utah Poverty Rate 5 th Lowest in the Nation CA 13.9% WA 11.4% OR 11.9% NV 13.0% AK 9.2% ID 12.3% UT 9.3% AZ 17.2% 2015 U.S. Rate = 13.5%, 2015 Utah Rate = 9.3% MT 11.9% WY 9.8% HI 10.9% CO 9.9% NM 19.7% ND 10.7% SD 13.9% NE 10.3% KS 14.2% TX 14.7% OK 14.2% MN 7.8% IA 10.4% MO 9.8% AR 16.1% WI 11.4% LA 18.6% IL 10.9% MS 19.1% MI 12.8% IN 13.5% TN 14.7% AL 16.3% 10.0% or less 10.1% to 11.0% OH 13.6% KY 19.5% WV 14.5% VT 10.7% PA 12.3% VA 10.9% NC 15.3% SC 14.3% GA 18.1% FL 16.2% NH 7.3% NY 14.2% 11.1% to 13.5% (at or below the U.S. rate) 13.6% to 16.0% 16.1% or more ME 12.3% DC 16.6% CT 9.1% DE 11.1% MD 9.6% MA 11.5% RI 11.8% NJ 11.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
53 Consumer Attitude Index Yearly Growth United States vs. Wasatch Front Above 110 indicates economic prosperity Zions Bank Utah Consumer Attitude Index United States Consumer 50.0 Apr 2012 Jul 2012 Oct 2012 Jan 2013 Apr 2013 Jul 2013 Oct 2013 Jan 2014 Apr 2014 Jul 2014 Oct 2014 Jan 2015 Apr 2015 Jul 2015 Oct 2015 Jan 2016 Apr 2016 Jul 2016 Oct 2016 Jan 2017 Source: U.S. CCI from The Conference Board and Utah CAI from Cicero Group
54 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% Jul 2011 Consumer Price Index Yearly Growth United States vs. Wasatch Front Oct 2011 Jan 2012 Apr 2012 Jul 2012 Oct 2012 Jan 2013 Apr 2013 Jul 2013 Oct 2013 Jan 2014 Apr 2014 Jul 2014 United States CPI Zions Bank Wasatch Front CPI Oct 2014 Jan 2015 Apr 2015 Jul 2015 Oct 2015 Jan 2016 Apr 2016 July 2016 Oct 2016 Jan 2017 Source: U.S. CPI from National Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wasatch Front CPI from Cicero Group
55 $300,000 $280,000 $260,000 $240,000 $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100, Utah Median Home Sale Prices Approaching Pre-Recession Highs Utah 2009 U.S Source: Graphiq.com reporting data from CoreLogic
56 Utah Maintains Lower Percentage of Foreclosures than Nation Percentage of total homes in foreclosure process U.S. Utah Source: Graphiq.com
57 30,000 Utah Residential Construction Activity Continues to Rise 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, e 2017f 2018f Single-Family Units Multifamily Total Source: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Group, Moody s Economy.com, and HIS Global Insight
58 Millions $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 Utah Value of New Residential Construction Increasing $ Residential Nonresidential Renovations Total e 2017f 2018f Source: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Group, Moody s Economy.com, and HIS Global Insight e= estimate f = forecast
59 Utah Economic Indicators f Population Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate Personal Income Home Prices Retail Sales e 2017f 2018f Sources: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group, Moody s Economy.com, IHS Global Insights e = estimate f = forecast
60 Zions Bank, A Division of ZB, N.A. Member FDIC. Content is offered for informational purposes only and should not be construed as tax, legal, financial or business advice. Please contact a professional about your specific needs and advice. Content may contain trademarks or trade names owned by parties who are not affiliated with ZB, N.A. Use of such marks does not imply any sponsorship by or affiliation with third parties, and ZB, N.A. does not claim any ownership of or make representations about products and services offered under or associated with such marks. Robert Spendlove Economic and Public Policy Officer Robert.Spendlove@zionsbank.com Phone:
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