Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia
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1 Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia
2 Economic Growth 42, , , , , , , GDP AND ECONOMIC GROWTH 7.2% 6.2% 6.4% 4.6% 4.8% 3.4% 2.9% 2.8% 20,743 24,344 26,167 26,847 29,151 31,756 34,029 37, * 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.5 % 4.8 % 4.9 % Average GDP growth during , when most of Georgia s neighbors were in or close to recession. Average economic growth in 2017 Average real GDP growth projection in , according to IMF Nominal GDP Real Growth GDP COMPOSITION Education 5% Energy 3% Financial intermediation 4% Helth Care 6% Real Estate 7% Construction 8% *growth - preliminary (nominal GDP estimate) Other 17% Trade 17% Manufacturing 14% Transport & Communications 10% Agriculture 9% 2018 ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECAST, IMF 4.2% 3.5% 3.2% 2.9% 1.6% 1.3% 0.7% Georgia Turkey Ukraine Armenia Russia Azerbaijan Belarus
3 Economic growth 14.0% Economic growth decomposition 1 6.0% 2.0% 3.4% 4.6% 2.9% 2.8% 4.8% -2.0% -6.0% I-III real consumption real investments real net export of goods and services real GDP growth % % 1 5.0% Public and Private investments * Public investments (% GDP) Private investments (% GDP) economic growth 2016 Contribution of private investments in real growth- 3.1 pp; 2017* Contribution of net export in real growth pp; Real sector contribution in economic growth- 1.4 pp. *-9 months
4 Business Sector 25.0% % 1 5.0% 18.6% BUSINESS SECTOR 2017*, % CHANGE 19.6% 6.3% % 578 EMPLOYMENT IN BUSSINESS SECTOR (THOUSAND PERSONS) thousand 5.0% thousand % % 6.0% thousand 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% Turnover Output Employment I II III 1.0% ზრდის Growth ტემპი rate TURNOVER OF BUSINESS SECTOR OUTPUT OF BUSINESS SECTOR % 20.20% 14.5% 12.9% 13.8% 12.5% 5.4% % 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% % 20.9% % 13.9% 10.7% 2.0% * 9 months of 2017 Turnover (billion GEL) change (%) Output (billion GEL) Change (%)
5 Employment and Unemployment 16.9% 16.3% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 15.1% 15.0% 14.6% 2016 annual unemployment rate reached its lowest point in 13 years 12.4% 12.0% 11.8% Decreasing trend of unemployment rate AVERAGE MONTHLY NOMINAL EARNINGS, GEL
6 Foreign Direct Investments FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS TOP INVESTOR COUNTRIES 2017* 10.7% 11.3% 11.0% 12.1% United Kingdom mln USD 7.3% 5.8% 5.9% 7.0% , , , , , months Foreign direct investments (mln. USD) Foreign direct investments, GDP (%) Turkey mln USD Azerbaijan mln USD Manufacturing 3% Other sectors 12% Transports and communications 33% FDI by Economic Sectors * Hotels and restaurants 6% Energy sector 7% Real Estate 9% In 9 months of 2017 FDI in Georgia amounted to 1,346.5 mln USD reaching record high. In the 3 rd quarter of 2017 FDI increased by 17.6% and amounted to mln USD. * months Financial sector 12% Construction 18%
7 Reinvestments FDI REINVESTMENTS I-III Q (MLN. USD.) % FDI reinvestments increased by 85% and amounted mln. USD. In 9 months of 2017, reinvestments share in FDI amounted to 44% 7
8 External Sector CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT CURRENT ACCOUNT ADJUSTED- PRIMARY BALANCE 12.8% 10.3% 11.7% 4.5% 6.6% 7.8% 5.8% 0.7% 5.8% 6.2% 3.9% 5.1% 10.7% 12.0% 12.8% 11.7% 2.5% 3.0% 4.6% 0.9% 8.2% 9.1% 8.2% 10.8% 7.6% 2.9% 7.1% 7.6% 12.8% 10.5% -3.4% -9.9% -5.5% -6.8% -7.2% -4.7% -6.0% -4.5% 0.1% -5.9% -5.4% -6.2% -4.0% -5.4% -5.8% -8.8% -1.6% -10.1% 2.5% 7.9% -10.1% -10.8% I 2017 II 2017 III QI 2017 QII 2017 QIII 2017 Q1-Q3 FDI financed deficit (% GDP) Debt financed deficit (% GDP) Curent account deficit (% GDP) current account primary - adjusted balance (% GDP) Investment revenue (% GDP) CURRENT ACCOUNT COMPONENTS, % GDP 9.4% 9.2% 8.9% 9.1% 8.7% 8.0% 7.8% 9.4% 8.3% 4.4% 5.2% 6.9% 8.7% 7.8% 10.4% 11.3% 10.3% 13.1% -5.8% -10.3% -12.8% -11.7% -10.7% -12.0% -12.8% -11.7% -22.3% -21.6% -24.2% -26.6% -25.9% -28.1% -26.9% -25.5% -1.9% -2.0% -2.9% -0.9% -1.3% -2.3% -5.0% -5.9% -7.6% 6.8% 20.9% -2.9% -22.6% -24.0% -6.4% -6.7% Q Q Q3 Current Account Deficit is mainly financed by FDI In recent years significantly increased the service export share in Current Account Inflows The main share of service export comes on tourism sector. Goods Services Income Current transfers Current Account Deficit
9 External Trade EXTERNAL TRADE ( ) 5, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Export Import Balance Turnover SHARES IN EXPORT BY COUNTRY GROUPS, In 2017 export growth amounted to 29.1%. In 2017 import increased by 9.4% Foreign trade turnover increased by 13.8%. EU % CIS % Other countries %
10 Tourism 3, , , , INTERNATIONAL TOURISM REVENUES, MLN. USD. 2,166 1,936 1,710 1, % 21.2% 11.9% 8.4% 4.5% 2, International tourism revenues growth rate INTERNATIONAL ARRIVALS (THOUSAND) 7,555 5,392 5,516 5,901 6, % 18.8% 7.0% 7.8% 2.3% International arrivals growth rate International tourism revenues 2016, 2.2 bln. USD; growth rate- 11.9% 2017, 2.8 bln. USD; growth rate- 27.0% International arrivals 2016, 6.4 mln.; Growth rate - 7.8% 2017, 7.6 mln,; growth rate %
11 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 12/02/ /03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/ /09/ /10/ /11/ /12/ /01/ /02/ /03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/ /09/ /10/ /11/ /12/ /01/ /02/ /03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/ /09/ /10/ /11/ /12/ /01/ /02/ /03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/ /09/ /10/ /11/ /12/ /01/2018 Inflation and monetary policy rate MONETARY POLICY RATE AND INFLATION Monetary policy rate Inflation Target inflation- 3%. Monetary policy rate- 7.25%. Annual core inflation end of %. 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% INFLATION
12 Fiscal Sector % % % % 1 5.0% BUDGET DEFICIT AND PUBLIC DEBT 42.4% 44.5% 45.2% 41.4% 4.5% 36.5% 34.8% 34.7% 35.5% 0.9% 2.0% 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 1.4% 0.9% * Public debt (% GDP) Budget deficit (% GDP - GFSM 2001) 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% PUBLIC DEBT STRUCTURE % External debt Domestic debt 79.1% * Preliminary
13 Increasing Sovereign Ratings Moody's Investors Service has upgraded Georgia s sovereign credit rating to Ba2 from Ba3. Ba2 Stable Reasons of increasing sovereign rating Resilience to a significant economic, financial and exchange rate shock in the region in ; Stable macroeconomic environment; Institutional strength; Ongoing economic reforms. უცხოური ვალუტა სავალო ფასიანი ქაღალდების ჭერი გაიზარდა Ba1-დან Baa3-მდე; უცხოური ვალუტის დეპოზიტების ჭერი Ba1- დან Ba3-მდე. According to Standard & Poor s and Fitch, Georgia maintains stable credit rating performance at BB-. BB- Stable სავალო ეროვნული ფასიანი ვალუტა ქაღალდებისა და დეპოზიტების ჭერი გაიზარდა Baa3-დან Baa1-მდე BB- Stable
14 China Italy France India Tunisia Belgium Sri Lanka Ukraine Belarus Austria Mexico Japan Slovak Republic Czech Republic Spain Greece Estonia Morocco Sweden Germany Hungary Latin America & Australia Russian Federation Egypt, Arab Rep. Honduras Iran, Islamic Rep. United States Philippines Lithuania Romania Malta OECD high income Uzbekistan Netherlands Portugal Turkey Poland Moldova Azerbaijan Serbia Norway Vietnam South Asia Finland Albania Afghanistan Latvia Europe & Central Asia Taiwan New Zealand East Asia & Pacific Nigeria Korea, Rep. Yemen, Rep. Middle East & North Pakistan United Kingdom Belize Slovenia Israel Maldives Indonesia Iceland Jordan Nepal Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Chile South Africa Switzerland Suriname Iraq Thailand Bulgaria Ireland Denmark Cyprus Mongolia Bosnia and Herzegovina Oman Hong Kong SAR, China Montenegro Canada Luxembourg Croatia Armenia Singapore Georgia United Arab Emirates Kosovo Saudi Arabia Bahrain Kuwait Macedonia, FYR Qatar International Rankings New Zeland Hong-Kong USA UK Norway Georgia Estonia Lithuania Latvia Germany Poland Czhech Republic Russia Kazakhstan Slovakia Armenia Azerbaijan Turkey Ukraine 1 Doing business Index of Economic Freedom 2018 (Heritage Foundation) Hong Kong 1 Singapore 2 Estonia 7 Georgia 16 Lithuania 19 Latvia 28 Armenia 44 Turkey 58 Azerbaijan 67 Moldova 105 Russia 107 Belarus 108 Ukraine Free (100-80) Mostly free ( ) Moderately free ( ) Mostly unfree ( ) 70% 60% 50% 40% Tax burden One of the lowest in the world 30% 20% 10% 0%
15 THANK YOU!
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