Daron Shaw Department of Government University of Texas at Austin

Transcription

1 Issues, Ideology, Gender, and Race in the 2008 Election Daron Shaw Department of Government University of Texas at Austin Hosted by the s Opportunity 08 project In partnership with the Center for the Study of Democratic Politics at Princeton University s Woodrow Wilson School of Public Affairs The

2 1 FIGURES 1A and 1B Source: Pew and the People Survey, Spring Presidential Candidates and Issue Handling Ratings McCain Obama Terrorism and National Security 40% 50% The Iraq War 47% 46% Issues like Abortion, Guns, and Same Sex Marriage 39% 46% Taxes and Government Spending 39% 50% Financial Problems on Wall Street and in the Housing and Mortgage Crises 34% 50% Energy Policy and Gas Prices 36% 53% The Economy and Jobs 35% 54% Health Care 30% 56% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% Source: Washington Post Poll, October 2008

3 2 FIGURE 2 Presidential Candidates and Trait Ratings McCain Obama Will stand up for what's right, even if it's not politically popular 57% 60% Is honest and trustworthy 54% 62% Would fit in well with people in your local community 54% 63% Shares your values 47% 59% Has the right judgment and temperament to make a good president 51% 66% Can bring the country together 42% 62% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% FIGURE 3 Presidential Candidates and the Critical Questions Yes No 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 53% 50% 48% 47% 45% 43% 40% 35% 30% 25% Is Obama Experienced Enough to be President? Would McCain be Different from Bush? Source: Washington Post Poll, October 2008

4 3 FIGURE 4 Presidential Vote by Ideology Conservative Moderate Liberal 100% 90% 80% 84% 89% 82% 70% 69% 60% 54% 53% 50% 45% 40% 37% 30% 20% 10% 11% 10% 15% 20% 0% Bush McCain Kerry Obama Source: 2008 data are from CBS News Poll, October data are from the EMR national exit poll.

5 4 FIGURE 5 Democratic Party Identification by Gender, 1952 to 2004 % of Men and Women who Identify with the Democratic Party Women Men Source: ANES from selected years.

6 5 FIGURE 6 The Security Mom Myth 52 % who voted for Bush Women with children at home Women without children at home Source: 2000 and 2004 ANES

7 6 FIGURE 7 White Gender Gap in Presidential Voting South versus Non South % Women voting for Democrat minus % Men Non South South Source: ANES from selected years.

8 7 FIGURE 8 The Bradley/Wilder Effect: Factors Affecting the Difference between Poll and Election Results 1. Measurable error (Sample size) 2. Un measurable error (Response rates) 3. Genuine changes in preferences 4. Mis representation of preferences

9 8 FIGURE 9 Ideological Identification of Self and the Candidates 2000 and 2004 Gore Self Bush Pre-War Boomers Gen X Gen Y Kerry Self Bush Pre-War Boomers Gen X Gen Y Note: Table entries equal ideological placement of candidates and self on 7 point scale (liberal to conservative). Source: 2000 and 2004 ANES

10 9 FIGURE 10 Democratic Party Identification Advantage among Different Age Cohorts Across Time When Respondent became 2000 Eligible to Vote 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2004 Pre War War II Voter s (80 years plus) * Before 1946 Post World War II Voters (63 to 70) From 1946 and 1962 Vietnam War/W atergate Voters (43 to 62) From 1963 and 1979 Reagan/Bush Era Voters (31 to 42) From 1980 and 1991 Clinton Era Voters (23 to 30) 0 12 From 1992 to 1999 Today's Young Voters (18 to 24) 27 From 1997 to 2004 Note: Cell entries equal the average Democratic advantage (% who identify or lean Democratic minus the % who identify or lean Republican) by each age cohort, for each decade. *There were less than 100 respondents in this category. Source: ANES cumulative file,

11 10 FIGURE 11 Democratic Voting among the Generations Presidential Vote Year Olds 1980s 1990s 2000s AVG. 41% 53% 65% 50% War and War War (before 1948) 43% Baby Boomers ( ) 41% Generation X ( ) 43% Generation Y ( ) 52% 51% 48% 52% 49% 46% 49% 49% 46% 57% 66% 60% Senate Vote Year Olds 52% 53% 60% 54% War and War War (before 1948) 55% Baby Boomers ( ) 54% Generation X ( ) 52% Generation Y ( ) 55% 53% 55% 51% 52% 52% 53% 49% 52% 60% 59% 60% House Vote Year Olds 62% 55% 65% 60% War and War War (before 1948) 57% Baby Boomers ( ) 58% Generation X ( ) 55% Generation Y ( ) 55% 50% 55% 51% 50% 54% 55% 50% 54% 49% 65% 56% Note: Table entries are averages from ANES cumulative file,

12 11 FIGURE 12 Outreach Efforts by Presidential Campaigns Obama McCain 70% 60% 65% Traditional Campaign Outreach New Campaign Outreach 50% 44% 40% 30% 20% 10% 21% 6% 35% 36% 33% 24% 28% 27% 26% 13% 12% 12% 31% 17% 27% 15% 16% 9% 0% TV Ads or TV News Door to Door Phone Calls Mail Watched campaign commerical online Watched virtual videos online Received s Visited a campaign website Received "chain mails" Received campaign information from cell phone or personal digital assistant Source: Democracy Corps Poll, September 2008