Wenlin Liu, Senior Economist. Stateof Wyoming. Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 1

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1 WYOMING DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC TREND LCCC LIFE Program April 7, 2012 Cheyenne, Wyoming Wenlin Liu, Senior Economist Economic Analysis Division Stateof Wyoming Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 1

2 Increasingly Solid National Economy The economic recovery is gaining traction: Job growth largest 3 month increases since Unemployment insurance claim lowest in 4 years. Consumer confidence is rising highest in 4 years. Companies are in excellent financial shape. Manufacturing is growing stronger. Automobile sales are gaining highest in 4 years. Construction has turned the corner. Europe threat is subsiding. Banks are lending. Stock market is rising. Negative factors: Surging gasoline price. Still depressed housing market. Slower growth in emerging markets. Long term deficit. Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 2

3 March 2012 price recorded the highest March Price ever Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 3

4 Regular Retail Gasoline Prices by State: March 2012 HI: $4.60 AK, CA, IL: $4.30 WY: $3.50 CT, D.C., IN, MI, NY, OR, WA: >$4.00 Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 4

5 Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 5

6 Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 6

7 Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 7

8 Populatio on 575, ,000 Wyoming Population and Net Migration: 1970 to 2011 Population Net Migration 20,000 15, ,000 10, ,000 5, ,000 0 Net 450, ,000-5,000-10,000 Migration 400,000-15, ,000-20, , , ,000 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10-30,000 Net Migration = Inmigration - Outmigration Source: U.S. Census Bureau Prepared by Wyoming Economic Analysis Division Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 8

9 12 th Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 9

10 Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 10

11 Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 11

12 Wyoming Population and Change by Race and Ethnicity: 2000 to 2010 Race/Ethnicity # Change % Change White 438, , , % Black 3,504 4, % American Indian 10,238 11,784 1, % Asian 2,670 4,279 1, % Hispanic 31,669 50,231 18, % Other 6,902 9,107 2, % (mixed race) TOTAL 493, ,626 69, % Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 12

13 Population Distribution by Race and Hispanic: 2010 Asian 47% 4.7% Amer. Indian 0.7% Other 2.3% Black 12.2% U.S. Hispanic 16.3% White 63.7% Wyoming Asian 08% 0.8% Other Hispanic 1.6% 8.9% Amer. Indian 2.1% Black 0.8% White 85.9% Percent of White: HI 22.7% D.C. 34.8% CA 40.1% NM 40.5% TX 45.3% ME 94.4% VT 94.3% WV 93.2% NH 92.3% ND 88.9% Wyoming ranked 9 th highesth Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 13

14 Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 14

15 Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 15

16 Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 16

17 Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 17

18 Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 18

19 Population Aging Speed and pattern aredetermined by 3 principal factors: Most timportant tis the Secular decline in fertility rates sustained increase in the ratio of old to young (<5 vs. 65 & +). Mortality rates declined substantially in many countries over the past century (rising life expectancy: Japan=83, US=79) public health, medical tech, standards of living. Bb Baby boom in developed dcountries ti pronounced rise in post WWII fertility rates. Percent of Population 65 and over: Japan = 22%; Germany = 20%; Western Europe = 19%. WORLD = 8%. U.S. = 13.0% in 2010, 19.3% in Wyoming = 12.4% in 2010, 20.5% in Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 19

20 Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 20

21 Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 21

22 Employment by Industry for Wyoming and U.S.: 2010 (Includes: full and part-time wage and salary jobs, and proprietors employment) U.S. Wyoming All Other 20.9% Agriculture 2.0% Mining 0.7% Construction 5.1% Manufactur. 7.0% All Other 19.1% Agriculture 4.0% Mining 7.8% Construction 8.1% Government 14.2% Leisure & Hospitality 9.1% Educational and Health Services 13.3% Wholesale & Retail Trade 13.7% Professional & Business Services 14.0% Government 19.4% Leisure & Hospitality 10.1% Educational and Health Services 8.5% Manufactur. 2.8% Wholesale & Retail Trade 12.4% Professional & Business Services 7.8% Wyoming = 385,704 U.S. = 173,752,400 Mining - 1st Construction 2nd Leisure & Hospitality - 4th Government - 4th Manufacturing 49 th Prof. & Bus. Svcs. 48 th Educ. & Health Svcs. 49 th Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 22

23 Gross Domestic Product for Wyoming and U.S.: 2010 by Industry U.S. Wyoming All Other 32.9% Agriculture 1.1% Mining 1.9% Construction 3.5% Manufactur. 11.8% All Other 21.4% Agriculture 1.1% Mining 31.4% Wholesale & Retail Trade 11.5% Government 13.4% Government 12.7% Professional & Business Services 12.2% Leisure & Hospitality 3.6% Educational and Health Leisure & Educational Services Professional Hospitality and Health 4.2% & Business Wholesale & 3.6% Services Services Retail Trade 8.8% 4.0% 9.0% Construction 44% 4.4% Manufactur. 7.5% Note: GDP is often referred to as its "value added", is equal to its gross output (sales or receipts and other operating income, plus inventory change) minus its intermediate inputs (consumption of goods and services purchased from other industries or imported). Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 23

24 W ) Non-Agr Wage and Salary Employment for Wyoming and U.S. (Number of jobs) 300 Wyoming US 160,000 mployment (in thousands) Job growth rate: 2006=5.1%, 2007=4.1%, 2008=3.3% 150, , , , , ,000 U.S. Emplo oyment (in th Wyoming Em ,000 80,000 ousands) , '73 '75 '77 '79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 60,000 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Prepared by Wyoming Economic Analysis Division Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 24

25 Percent Wyoming and US Unemployment Rates: Annual Average U.S Wyoming Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Prepared by Wyoming Economic Analysis Division Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 25

26 350, Oct ,000 +8,400 20, , , ,000 Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 26

27 Non farm Employment by State Percentage Change (Seasonally Adjusted) Fb February 2011 Fb February % U.S. = 1.5% Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 27

28 Unemployment Rate by State February 2012 (Seasonally Adjusted) 5.4% U.S. = 8.3% Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 28

29 Wyoming Revenue and Tax Facts Tax structure reliant on extractive industries. Mineral income currently makes up about two thirds of State and half of Local Government revenue. FY 2011 Mineral income is obtained from: Mineral severance taxes ($945.3 million). Federal mineral royalties ($942.4 million). Mineral property taxes ($ million) million). Sales and use taxes ($167.3 million). Income from PWMTF ($215.8 million). No income tax, low property and sales tax rates (food exemption). Near top rank in per capita state and local government revenue and expenditures. Household tax burden ranks among the lowest in the nation. Mineral portion is exported out of state. Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 29

30 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 Mineral Severance Taxes: FY FY2012 (in millions of current dollars) Other Coal Natural Gas Crude Oil $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $ Source: Wyoming CREG Prepared by Wyoming Economic Analysis Division Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 30

31 $30, $28,000 $26,000 Total Locally and State Assessed Valuation (in millions of current dollars) Coal Natural Gas Oil Other $24,000 $22,000 $20,000 $18,000 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $ * Other includes other minerals, real and personal property Wyoming Economic Analysis Division Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 31

32 Per Capita Personal Income for US and Wyoming $60,000 $55,000 $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10, $5,000 U.S. Wyoming Rank in U.S. since 2008: 6 th up 54% from 2002 to : 33 rd $ Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Wyoming Economic Analysis Division Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 32

33 Annual Percent Change of Single Family House Price U.S. Wyoming Estimates use all-transactions index which includes purchase and refinance mortgages Source: Federal Housing Finanace Agency ( /) Prepared by Wyoming Economic Analysis Division ( Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 33

34 5,000 Residential Building Permits Authorized in Wyoming 4,500 4,000 Multi-Family Units Single-Family Units 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Wyoming Economic Analysis DIvision Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 34

35 WY economy will continue to improve, though gradually population grow <1%, and employment will grow about 1.5%; unemployment rate remains around 5%. global commodity demand and recent US U.S. uptrend momentum. Expansion of oil development from Niobara Shale, uranium mining from global interest in nuclear power, and development of wind resources. The lagging construction ction industry should have bottomedout. Housing market will recover from the mild correction. Stellar wage growth supports consumers spending and residential construction. Because of its large proportion and pivotal role in WY s economy, the improvement or deterioration in mining industry will trigger into other economic sections. Tourism industry will benefit from national recovery will bolster tourists spending ability. Weak dollar supports international visitors. Negative Factors: persistence of extremely low NG price could impact revenue, coal industry, overall economic recovery to a great extent. Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 35

36 Robust Supply tech(hf, HD) Record Storage mild weather Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 36

37 THANK YOU! Economic Analysis Division EAD Wyoming s Source for Business and Economic Information ai ead info@wyo.gov (307) Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 37

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