Market Insights. June 30, 2018
|
|
- Scott Shelton
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 June 30, 2018
2 Economic Overview 2
3 Global & Regional Growth Forecasts IMF GDP Forecasts (% change YoY) Advanced Economies 1.7% 1.2% 1.3% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 2.3% 2.5% 2.2% Emerging Markets 6.4% 5.4% 5.1% 4.7% 4.3% 4.4% 4.8% 4.9% 5.1% World 4.3% 3.5% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2% 3.8% 3.9% 3.9% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% World Japan Canada Euro US Russia Brazil China India 3
4 Dominant Contributors of Global GDP IMF Share of World GDP based on Purchasing Power Parity (Year Ending 2017) 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% China European Union United States India Japan Russia Brazil Indonesia Mexico South Korea Saudi Arabia Canada Turkey Australia Taiwan Switerland Norway 4
5 Global Mergers & Acquisitions M&A Transaction Value Global Index by Quarter (15 years)
6 Closer Look at China Export results provide valuable insight China Exports (exports by quarter) (USD billion) $ $ $ $ $50.00 $- Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 6
7 Closer Look at China % of GDP NSA Cumulative (10 years in CNY) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Farming and Forestry Industrie et construction Services 10% 0%
8 Total and Core CPI Canada and US Total and Core CPI (% change YoY) Canada US 4% CAN - Total CPI CAN - Core CPI 6% US - Total CPI US - Core CPI 3% 5% 4% 2% 3% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% -1% -1% -2% -2% -3%
9 Consumer Spending & Business Investment Real Consumer Spending (q/q % a.r.) Real Business Investment (q/q % a.r.) 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% Canada USA 0.0% -2.0% Canada É.-U. -4.0% -4.0% -6.0% %
10 Corporate Profits Corporate Profits Growth Rate (% change YoY) US Corporate Profits Canada Corporate Profits 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 0% 10% -5% 0% -10% -10% -15% -20% -20% % US Corporate Profits Without IVA and CCA Profits After Tax SAAR (in billions) Bank of Canada Corporate Profits After Taxes SAAR 10
11 Job Market US Unemployment Rate Canadian Unemployment Rate 12.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 5.8% 9.3% 9.6% 8.9% 8.1% 7.4% 6.2% 5.3% 4.9% 4.4% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.2% 8.4% 8.0% 7.5% 7.3% 7.1% 6.9% 6.9% 7.0% 6.3% 5.8% 4.0% 3.9% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% %
12 Closer look at Canada GDP Breakdown GDP Breakdown across commodity related sectors (Indexed) 110 Selected export related industries Industries most affected by commodity prices Rest of the Economy Note: Selected export-related industries includes manufacturing, agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and transportation. Industries most affected by commodity prices includes mining, oil and gas, engineering and non-residential construction, and related professional services. 12
13 US Economic Indicators US Real GDP Growth US Core Inflation 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% %
14 US Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) 15 Years ending June Leading Economic Index
15 US Home Sales and Prices 5 Years ending June 2018 US Existing Home Sales US Existing Home Selling Prices 6.3 $ $270.0 $ $ $ vs. Last month (0.4%) vs. Last year (3.0%) $190.0 $170.0 vs. Last month 2.7% vs. Last year 4.9% $
16 How Does Canada s Housing Market Compare? Canada housing market vs. U.S. housing market 20% 15% Existing Homes Prices US Canada 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20%
17 Commodities 17
18 Commodity Overview Bloomberg Commodity Index 15 Year Performance to June 30,
19 Crude reality: Price of Oil West Texas Intermediate ($US per barrel) 15 Year Price to June 30, 2018 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $
20 Gold Bullion Gold (US$/troy ounce) 15 Year Price to June 30, 2018 $2,000 $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 20
21 Canada s PetroDollar The Canadian Dollar plots a similar course as the price of Oil CDN$ vs. Price of Crude Oil (10 Years) CADUSD (lhs) WTI Oil Price (rhs) 21
22 Currencies 22
23 Canadian Dollar vs. U.S. Dollar Years ending June 2018 $1.10 $1.05 $1.00 $0.95 $0.90 $0.85 $0.80 $0.75 $0.70 $0.65 $
24 FX Rates USD Comparisons 1 Year Rates to June 30, Yen vs. USD Euro vs. USD CDN vs. USD Jun-17 Dec Jun-17 Dec Jun-17 Dec-17 24
25 Emerging Market Currencies Exchange rates against the U.S. Dollar 3 Year Rates to June 30, 2018 (Indexed to 100 on June 30, 2015) Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Brazil Real Chilean Peso South African Rand Russia Rouble Indian Rupee Turkish Lira Argentine Peso Chinese Yuan 25
26 Currency The Hidden Difference n currencies vs. Canadian Dollar 1 Year Rates to June 30, 2018 to 100 on June 30, 2017) Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 USDCAD EURCAD JPYCAD Comparing 1 Year returns in local currency to CDN$-based Canada U.S. Euro Area Japan Emerg. Markets China World S&P/TSX S&P500 MSCI Europe NR MSCI Japan NR MSCI EM NR MSCI China NR MSCI World Local Currency Returns 10.4% 14.4% 4.3% 8.9% 10.5% 21.7% 10.9% CDN$-Based Returns 10.4% 15.7% 6.5% 11.8% 9.5% 22.7% 12.4% 26
27 Equities 27
28 A View of Global Market Indices S&P/TSX Composite Index Prices - 12 months ending June 30, Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 S&P/TSX S&P 500 Euro Area Japan Emerg. Mkts China World 1-Year returns to Jun 30: 0.8% 14.4% 4.3% 8.9% 10.5% 21.7% 10.9% Year-to-Date: 0.4% 1.8% (0.2%) (3.7%) (4.1%) (4.6%) 0.8% Quarter-to-Date: 0.2% 5.8% 4.1% 1.7% (3.2%) (2.8%) 5.1% Month-to-Date: 0.1% (0.9%) (1.6%) (2.1%) (4.5%) (8.0%) (1.1%) 28
29 Global Market Results 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 S&P/TSX Composite Index 10, % S&P 500 Index % ,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, (1.01%) ,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 MSCI Europe Index MSCI Japan Index 2, ,000 (3.88%)
30 S&P/TSX by Sector S&P/TSX returns for 2017 and 2018 YTD 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% (5%) (10%) S&P/TSX Composite Index Information Technology Industrials Real Estate Energy Consumer Discretionary Materials Health Care Financials Consumer Staples % 22.2% 6.6% 5.3% 4.8% 3.5% 3.3% (1.1%) (1.5%) (2.6%) (5.0%) (6.2%) % 16.8% 19.7% 11.2% (7.0%) 22.8% 7.7% 34.2% 13.3% 7.8% 14.8% 10.8% Telecom Services Utilities 30
31 Don t Fear the Fed S&P 500 Index following the Federal Reserve boosting interest rates May Nov 1959 July Nov July Aug March Aug Feb July 1974 Jan May 1980 July June 1981 Feb Aug June Dec Oct Sept Mar Mar Dec April 1995 June July 2000 Dec July % -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 31
32 Fixed Income 32
33 U.S. Fed Overnight Rate Fed Funds: Target Rate (%) 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%
34 Bank of Canada Overnight Rate Bank of Canada Overnight Rate (%) 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%
35 Central Bank Rates Central Bank Rates and 10-Year Government Bond Yields - 3 Years to June 30, 2018 Canada U.S Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Canada - Overnight Rate 10-Year GoC Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 US - Overnight Rate 10-Year Treasury 35
36 Central Bank rates around the globe Central Bank Rates and 10-Year Government Bond Yields - 10 Years to June 30, % 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% Australia Canada England USA (Upper Range) ECB 1.00% 0.00%
37 10 Year Government Bond Yields As of June 30, 2018, 3 months ago and 1 year ago (bps) 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Today 2% 3 months ago 1% 12 months ago 0% -1% US Canada Mexico (USD) Germany Britain France Italy Spain Greece Switzerland Japan Australia New Zealand Hong Kong South Korea India Americas Europe Asia 37
Market Insights. March 29, 2019
March 29, 2019 Economic Overview 2 Global & Regional Growth Forecasts IMF GDP Forecasts (% change YoY) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Advanced Economies 1.2% 1.4% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 2.4% 2.3%
More informationGlobal growth forecasts Key countries/regions,
Global growth forecasts Key countries/regions, 2014-2018 Percent 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Developing Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East and North Africa Latin America and the Caribbean United States Euro area
More informationOutline. Overview of globalization. Global outlook for real economic activity & inflation. Risks to the outlook
2017 International Economic Outlook Everett Grant Research Economist Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas October 2017 The views expressed are those of the author and
More informationEconomic & Financial Market Outlook
Economic & Financial Market Outlook BC Pension Forum March 1, 2013 Chris Lawless, Chief Economist Overview Global forces Recent economic performance ~ US, Europe, Japan, China ~ Other emerging markets
More informationEconomic Outlook March Economic Policy Division
Economic Outlook March 212 Economic Policy Division Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 197 to Q4 211 Real
More informationPredicting the Markets: Chapter 12 Charts: Predicting Currencies
Predicting the Markets: Chapter 12 Charts: October 5, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni Chief Investment Strategist Mali Quintana Senior Economist info@yardenibook.com Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Mark A. Wynne Vice President & Associate Director of Research Director, Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Presentation to Vistas Conference
More informationOpportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip?
Opportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip? Ross DeVol Chief Research Officer (310) 570 4615 rdevol@milkeninstitute.org www.milkeninstitute.org Presentation
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMICS, REAL ESTATE PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 RICHARD BARKHAM GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST
GLOBAL ECONOMICS, REAL ESTATE PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 RICHARD BARKHAM GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST BREXIT TRUMPISM EURO-TRUMPISM 4 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 LET S GET GEOPOLITICS IN PERSPECTIVE
More informationSA economic review Kevin Lings. August 2018
SA economic review Kevin Lings August 2018 South Africa real GDP growth year-on-year %y/y 8 7 6 5 Ave 4.3% 4 Ave 2.5% 3 2 Ave 0.9% 1 0-1 -2-3 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 2
More informationFurther Opening Up and Reform of China s Capital Market
Further Opening Up and Reform of China s Capital Market Haizhou Huang January 7, 2016 China economy and capital market: Finding new normal 1 Macro: We expect China GDP to grow 6.9% in 2015 and 6.8% in
More informationPredicting the Markets: Chapter 15 Charts: Predicting Currencies
Predicting the Markets: Chapter 15 Charts: March 3, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box Table
More informationU.S. Overview. Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013
U.S. Overview Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013 Uneven global economic recovery Annual real GDP growth projections (%) Projections 2013 2014 World 3.1 3.1 3.8 United States 2.2 1.7 2.7 Euro Area
More informationGlobal Construction Outlook: Laura Hanlon Product Manager, Global Construction Outlook May 21, 2009
Global Construction Outlook: Short-term term Pain, Long-term Gain Laura Hanlon Product Manager, Global Construction Outlook May 21, 2009 What This Means for You The world is set to be hit this year with
More informationBC Pension Forum. Economic Outlook. Presented by: Ben Homsy, CFA Portfolio Manager
BC Pension Forum Economic Outlook Presented by: Ben Homsy, CFA Portfolio Manager 1694 1704 1713 1723 1732 1741 1751 1760 1770 1779 1788 1798 1807 1817 1826 1836 1845 1854 1864 1873 1883 1892 1901 1911
More informationGlobal trade: how does it look?
Edmonton, December 2018 Global trade: how does it look? Marie-France Paquet The Office of the Chief Economist Global Affairs Canada Overview 1. Canadian economy at a glance 2. Provincial economy at a glance
More informationRBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins
RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins CICA/RBC Q4 2011 Business Monitor Economic Results Overview Business and Economic Optimism Begin to Stablize 100 % 80 % 60 % 40 % 20 % 0 % National Optimism
More informationProwess Investment Managers
gathering clouds: South Africa's economic situation and how it affects you Kelebogile Moloko Prowess Investment Managers what to expect ~ how to identify a recession ~ what are the implications for South
More informationEconomic Outlook: fear over fundamentals
ECONOMICS I RESEARCH Economic Outlook: fear over fundamentals April 2016 Craig Wright (SVP & Chief Economist) (416) 974-7457 craig.wright@rbc.com Volatility index Market volatility index, (VIX) 90 80 70
More informationGlobal economy maintaining solid growth momentum. Canada leading the pack
Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum Canada leading the pack Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919 dawn.desjardins@rbc.com September 2017 Brighter global outlook gains traction
More informationU.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook
U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook BBVA Research USA Houston, TX September 2015 DISCLAIMER This document was prepared by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria s (BBVA) BBVA Research U.S. on behalf of itself and
More informationU.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook
U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook BBVA Research USA Houston, TX August 2015 DISCLAIMER This document was prepared by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya (BBVA) BBVA Research U.S. on behalf of itself and its affiliated
More informationTHE ICELANDIC ECONOMY AN IMPRESSIVE RECOVERY BUT WHAT CHALLENGES LIE AHEAD?
THE ICELANDIC ECONOMY AN IMPRESSIVE RECOVERY BUT WHAT CHALLENGES LIE AHEAD? FROM BUST TO BOOM. AN EPIC BUST After 16 years of growth with a short pause for breath in 2002, the Icelandic economy entered
More informationImpacts of the Global Economy on Asia Pacific Travel. 29 June 2007 John Walker
Impacts of the Global Economy on Asia Pacific Travel 29 June 2007 John Walker jwalker@oxfordeconomics.com Oxford Economics Founded in 1981 Over 300 clients including blue chip companies and government
More informationThe outlook: what we know, the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns
The outlook: what we know, the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns 24 April 2017 Seoul Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 1
More informationOpening address for dinner-debate
Opening address for dinner-debate Mohammed Barkindo Acting for the OPEC Secretary General European Parliament Strasbourg, France 4 July 2006 1 Outline Importance of EU-OPEC Energy Dialogue Current oil
More informationSeven Lean Years Explaining Persistent Global Economic Weakness
Seven Lean Years Explaining Persistent Global Economic Weakness 9 June 2015 Bank of Canada and European Central Bank Conference Tim Lane Deputy Governor Bank of Canada The global economy remains weak and
More informationCanadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States?
Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States? Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist Dale Orr Canadian Macroeconomic Services Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc.
More informationChart Collection for Morning Briefing
Chart Collection for Morning Briefing September 11, 2017 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 4-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at blog. thinking outside the box 4.6 4.4 4.2
More informationReading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond
Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond Wednesday, April 28, 2010; 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM Moderator: Maria Bartiromo, Anchor, CNBC's Closing Bell With Maria Bartiromo Speakers: Nick Calamos, President
More informationMarket Correlations: Copper
Market Correlations: Copper January 19, 2018 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking
More informationU.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook
U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook BBVA Research USA Houston, TX July 2015 DISCLAIMER This document was prepared by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria s (BBVA) BBVA Research U.S. on behalf of itself and its
More informationCurrent Hawaii Economic Conditions. Eugene Tian
Current Hawaii Economic Conditions Eugene Tian Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism At the PATA/TTRA 2016 Annual Outlook & Economic Forecast Forum February 3, 2016 Positive Signs in the
More informationAfter the British referendum
Future of Europe After the British referendum Broader issues for the UK and the EU David Marsh, Managing Director, OMFIF 27 October 2016 Nicosia 1 European politics moves against integration A new phase
More informationAnalyzing the Energy Economy Michael Plante Senior Research Economist
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Analyzing the Energy Economy Michael Plante Senior Research Economist Disclaimer Disclaimer: The statements in this presentation do not represent the official views of the
More informationCapitalizing on the Opportunity in Emerging Markets
Capitalizing on the Opportunity in Emerging Markets Philippe Langham, Head, Emerging Markets Equities & Senior Portfolio Manager January 2017 RBC Global Asset Management (UK) Ltd. Rising Importance of
More information2012 Annual Conference THE HEAT IS ON! A New World Competition
2012 Annual Conference THE HEAT IS ON! A New World Competition Going for Gold! Review of Global Hotel Performance with a focus on Olympic performance Elizabeth Winkle, STR Global InterContinental Buckhead
More informationReal gross domestic growth
Real gross domestic growth United States, 2000 prices Compound annual growth rate 10 5 0-5 -10 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 Sources: BEA, Global Insight. Consumer sentiment University of Michigan,
More informationEconomic Overview. Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017
Economic Overview Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017 TTX Overview TTX functions as the industry s railcar cooperative, operating under pooling authority granted by the Surface Transportation
More informationThe Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies
The Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Economist, PAGI Group, JLL (Port, Airport & Global Infrastructure) Agenda Where are we in the cycle? What are the barriers
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook: From Fiscal Cliff to Rushcliffe in 15 minutes. Tom Rogers. Lead Economist, Oxford Economics.
Global Economic Outlook: From Fiscal Cliff to Rushcliffe in 15 minutes Tom Rogers Lead Economist, Oxford Economics trogers@oxfordeconomics.com 16 th January 2013 Overview External environment showing signs
More informationMUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors
MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors INTRODUCTION The U.S. economy continues to grow at a gradual but also erratic pace The current recovery is one of the slowest in the post-wwii U.S. history.
More informationSulphur Market Outlook
Sulphur Market Outlook Meena Chauhan Head of Sulphur and Sulphuric Acid Integer Research The Fertilizer Institute Outlook and Technology conference Fort Lauderdale, Florida Founded in 2002, Integer Research
More informationUnited Nations Conference on Trade and Development
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development 11 th MULTI-YEAR EXPERT MEETING ON COMMODITIES AND DEVELOPMENT 15-16 April 2019, Geneva Saudi economic growth strategy on the face of oil price uncertainty
More informationGlobal economic cycle has slowed
Year-on-year % change Confidence index, 50= no change Global economic cycle has slowed 25% 70 20% International trade growth 65 15% 10% Industrial production growth 60 5% 55 0% 50-5% Business confidence
More informationThe Mystery of Growing Foreign Exchange Reserve
The Mystery of Growing Foreign Exchange Reserve January - March 2007 Total increase = $136 Billion Trade surplus 34% To be explained 54% Net FDI inflow 12% Source: PBoC Renminbi Pressure Indicator Initial
More informationDECLINE IN COMMODITY PRICES GCC OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 22 ND, 2015
DECLINE IN COMMODITY PRICES GCC OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 22 ND, 2015 1 EVERYONE HAS A PLAN UNTIL THEY GET PUNCHED IN THE FACE 2 HE WHO IS NOT COURAGEOUS ENOUGH TO TAKE RISKS WILL ACCOMPLISH NOTHING IN LIFE 3 IT
More informationTurkey: Recent Developments and Future Prospects. ISBANK Economic Research Division November 2018
Turkey: Recent Developments and Future Prospects ISBANK Economic Research Division November 2018 Macroeconomic Outlook Strong Economic Growth Cycle GDP of 851 bn USD (2017), 10.6k USD (2017) per capita
More informationSelected Interest & Exchange Rates
(5/517) Selected Interest & Exchange Rates Weekly Series of Charts i January 29, 1990 Prepared by the FINANCIAL MARKETS SECTION DIVISION OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM
More informationMuhlenkamp & Company. Webcast August 30, Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President
Muhlenkamp & Company Webcast August 30, 2018 Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management
More information2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE
2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE January 14, 2019 Scott Colbert, CFA Executive Vice President Director of Fixed Income & Chief Economist scott.colbert@commercebank.com GLOBAL GROWTH EXPECTATIONS
More informationDG AGRI DASHBOARD: CITRUS FRUIT Last update:
8.000 7.000 6.000 5.000 4.000 3.000 2.000 1.000 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Small citrus (group mandarines): clementines,
More informationAirline industry outlook 2019
Airline industry outlook 2019 Brian Pearce Chief Economist 12 December 2018 Million barrels a day US$ per barrel Are the markets signalling recession ahead? 60 55 Business confidence (left scale) FTSE
More informationThe U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services
The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services Growth Is Cooling; But a Soft Landing Is Likely (Real GDP, annualized rate of growth)
More informationJapanese Market Potential
Growth Strategy (announced on 14 June 2013) : Japan is BACK. Overall Target: 2% Real GDP Growth in the next 10 years JPY1.5 million Increase of GNI/capita after 10 years Unleash the Potential of Private
More informationCanada s economy on track for a solid 2018 although policy uncertainty lingers
Canada s economy on track for a solid 2018 although policy uncertainty lingers Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919 dawn.desjardins@rbc.com March 2018 Canada is facing a challenging
More informationSouthern California Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook
2016-17 Southern California Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Sr. VP/Chief Economist, LAEDC February 17, 2016 Outline U.S. Economy California Economy Southern California Economy
More informationChina in the World Economy
China in the World Economy Lawrence J. Lau, Ph. D. Ralph and Claire Landau Professor of Economics, The Chinese Univ. of Hong Kong and Kwoh-Ting Li Professor in Economic Development, Emeritus, Stanford
More informationUS Economic Activity
US Economic Activity GDP has been in positive territory for seven consecutive quarters, and the advance estimate shows the US economy grew at a 1.0% rate in the fourth quarter 2015. US Economic Activity
More informationAREA TOTALS OECD Composite Leading Indicators. OECD Total. OECD + Major 6 Non Member Countries. Major Five Asia. Major Seven.
Reference series Composite leading indicators OECD Composite Leading Indicators AREA TOTALS 7-03- 19 OECD Total 19 OECD + Major 6 Non Member Countries 19 Major Seven 19 Major Five Asia 19 Euro area 19
More informationMontreal Real Estate Forum. Economic Outlooks for March 31, Cooperating in building the future
Montreal Real Estate Forum March 31, 2015 Economic Outlooks for 2015 François Dupuis Vice-President and Chief Economist Desjardins Group Cooperating in building the future Outline The global economy and
More informationThe Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum
The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum David J. Stockton Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics Chief Economist Monetary Policy Analytics October 5, 2017 What s Driving the Global
More informationThe Israeli Economy 2009 The Caesarea Center Conference
The Israeli Economy 2009 The Caesarea Center Conference Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya The Big Issues The broken crystal ball A crisis that happens once in 100 years From a country oriented
More informationVermont Economic Conference:
Vermont Economic Conference: Mapping Our Economic Future Michael Dolega Director & Senior Economist TD Economics January 5 2018 Summary Global economy gathering speed, leading to another upgrade in outlook.
More informationSelected Interest & Exchange Rates
(51/517) OMA f* Lt UCSMit» s s s " Selected Interest & Exchange Rates Weekly Series of Charts January 25, 1982 Prepared by the FINANCIAL MARKETS SECTION DIVISION OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS
More informationMexico Stands to Benefit From. With Relative Ease. Jesus Cañas Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Laredo, Texas May 2014
Mexico Stands to Benefit From With Relative Ease Jesus Cañas Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Laredo, Texas May 2014 Outline 2013 worst than expected Economy back on growth track in 2014 Why we care about
More informationDG AGRI DASHBOARD: CITRUS FRUIT Last update:
14 000 12 000 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Small citrus (group mandarines): clementines, satsumas
More informationTelling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards Analytical Studies Branch April 20, 2017
Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy: How have the decline in oil prices and a weaker Canadian dollar affected Canada s economy? www.statcan.gc.ca Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards
More informationAirlines, the economy and air transport demand
Airlines, the economy and air transport demand Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 1 Returns for airlines investors lower this year;
More informationeconomic and financial outlook
Centre de référence en agriculture et agroalimentaire du Québec April 21, 2015 2015 2016 economic and financial outlook François Dupuis Vice-President and Chief Economist Desjardins Group Cooperating in
More informationOutlook 2008/09 Life In the Aftermath of the Great Global Credit Crisis. May 8 th, Presented by:
Outlook 2008/09 Life In the Aftermath of the Great Global Credit Crisis May 8 th, 2008 Presented by: Patricia Croft, Vice President & Chief Economist Phillips, Hager & North Investment Management Limited
More informationThe U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook Presented to: Maquiladora Industry Outlook Conference September 29 2006 Presented by: Patrick Newport Principal, U.S. Macroeconomic Service 781-301-9125 patrick.newport@globalinsight.com
More informationBob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends. September 10, 2013
Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends September 10, 2013 The Freight Economy Washington continues to be a headwind on economic
More informationMuhlenkamp & Company. Webinar December 1, Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President
Muhlenkamp & Company Webinar December 1, 2016 Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management
More informationSelected Interest & Exchange Rates
(516/517) h. Selected Interest & Exchange Rates Weekly Series of Charts November 22, 1982 DIVISION OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCE Prepared by the BOARD OF GOVERNORS FINANCIAL MARKETS FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM SECTION
More informationNew Growth Segments for the Air Cargo Industry
Page 1 New Growth Segments for the Air Cargo Industry 4 th Air Cargo Economics Conference Prague, April 22-23, 2004 Page 2 Assumptions Primary commodity sectors and their growth Perishables: are they really
More informationEconomic Update and Outlook
Economic Update and Outlook NAIOP Vancouver Chapter November 15, 2012 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union Outline: Global, U.S., and Canadian economic conditions Canada economic and
More informationIndex, nominal terms, 2010 = Energy. Agriculture Metals
Outline Broad commodity price trends Index, nominal terms, 2010 = 100 180 150 Energy 120 90 60 Agriculture Metals 30 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Source:
More informationLocal systems, Europe and globalisation: How to get it right?
Local systems, Europe and globalisation: How to get it right? Jean-Paul Fitoussi Professor, IEP Paris President, OFCE «Culture and Knowledge: Local Systems in a Global Context» European Colloquia Prague,
More informationFinancial Stability Implications of Changing Global Finance: Policy Panel Global Finance in Transition
Financial Stability Implications of Changing Global Finance: Policy Panel Global Finance in Transition May 7 and 8, 2013 İstanbul, Turkey Outline 1 The Financial System 2 Weak Growth 3 4 5 Unprecedented
More informationGrasshoppers, Ants and Locusts: the future of the world economy
Ralph Miliband Series on the Restructuring of World Power Grasshoppers, Ants and Locusts: the future of the world economy Martin Wolf Associate editor and chief economics commentator, Financial Times Professor
More informationSelected Interest & Exchange Rates
5 Yyc l51/517) \ \. > ' v.j : V ' Selected Interest & Exchange Rates Weekly Series of Charts i November 8, 1982 Prepared by the FINANCIAL MARKETS SECTION DIVISION OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS
More informationPercent
Outline Outline Growth is picking up Percent 6 Advanced economies Emerging and developing economies 5 4 4.9 5.0 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.7 3.7 3.7 3 2 2.0 2.3 1.6 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.7 1 1.1 1.3 0 2012 2013 2014 2015
More informationFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas, FIRM (Financial Institution Relationship Management)
The Economic Roller Coaster: Where Have We Been? And Where Are We Going? Thomas F. Siems, Ph.D. Senior Economist and Director of Economic Outreach Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Summit Dallas
More informationCOMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS*
COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) Fixed Rates Variable Rates FIXED RATES OF THE PAST 25 YEARS AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE LENDING RATE - 5 YEAR* (Per cent) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
More informationGlobal Containerboard Outlook
Global Containerboard Outlook European Conference March 2018 Gleb Sinavskis Economist, European Paper Packaging Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information Gleb Sinavskis Economist, European Paper
More informationThe end of the macroeconomic adjustment? Economic Department
The end of the macroeconomic adjustment? Economic Department Political stress and Government Yield Curve Yield Curve - Brazil 0#DIJ: Yield 15,8 15,655 15,655 15,6 15,4 YC; 0#DIJ:; Trade Price; Realtime;
More information18 th May Global Steel Industry Trends: Is the perception the reality?
18 th May 2004 Global Steel Industry Trends: Is the perception the reality? Investors have perceived the steel industry negatively Poor returns over the long term, high volatility, relatively small size
More informationNational and Regional Economic Outlook. Central Southern CAA Conference
National and Regional Economic Outlook Central Southern CAA Conference Dr. Mira Farka & Dr. Adrian R. Fleissig California State University, Fullerton April 13, 2011 The Painfully Slow Recovery The Painfully
More informationThe U.S. & World Economy: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
The U.S. & World Economy: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Michael Strauss Chief Economist and Chief Investment Strategist Commonfund October 16, 2012 The U.S. & World Economy: The Good, the Bad, and the
More informationMaximizing Tourism Marketing Investments A Canadian Perspective
Maximizing Tourism Marketing Investments A Canadian Perspective Understanding the potential of markets Economics: GDP; Inflation; Unemployment; Employment; Disposable Income; Private Consumption; Consumer
More informationMajor Issues and Trends Facing the Port and Marine Transportation Industry
Major Issues and Trends Facing the Port and Marine Transportation Industry Presented to: AAPA Marine Terminal Management Training Program April 24, 2006 Charleston Riverview Hotel Charleston, SC - USA
More informationIndia: Can the Tiger Economy Continue to Run?
India: Can the Tiger Economy Continue to Run? India s GDP is on the rise US$ trillions Nominal GDP (left axis) GDP growth (right axis) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
More informationBabson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast. May 13, 2014
Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast May 13, 2014 Outline for Today Myths and Realities of this Recovery Positive Economic Signs Negative Economic Signs Outlook for 2014 The Employment Picture
More information10 County Conference. Richard Wobbekind. Executive Director Business Research Division & Senior Associate Dean Leeds School of Business
10 County Conference Richard Wobbekind Executive Director Business Research Division & Senior Associate Dean Leeds School of Business Hmm... (http://myfallsemester.blogspot.com) Real GDP Growth Percent
More informationNYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference
NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference Industry Update: The Statistical Reality Presented by Randy Smith, Chairman and Founder, STR Global Lodging Performance Global Regions Occupancy
More informationComposition of Federal Spending
*For Institutional Use Only* Demographic and Economic Trends: Growth, Debt and Promises Douglas C. Robinson RCM Robinson Capital Management LLC SEC Registered Investment Advisory Firm Advisory services
More informationFrom Recession to Recovery
From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM Moderator Michael Klowden, President and CEO, Milken Institute Speakers Mohamed El-Erian, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer, Pacific
More informationPresident and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of New York Washington and Lee University H. Parker Willis Lecture in Political Economics
The U.S. Economic Outlook Chartspresented by WilliamC Dudley Charts presented by William C. Dudley President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of New York Washington and Lee University H.
More informationEconomy On The Rebound
Economy On The Rebound Robert Johnson Associate Director of Economic Analysis November 17, 2009 robert.johnson@morningstar.com (312) 696-6103 2009, Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Executive
More information