Zions Bank Economic Overview Cache Valley Home Builders Association. April 12, 2017
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1 Zions Bank Economic Overview Cache Valley Home Builders Association April 12, 2017
2 National Economic Conditions
3 Dow 20,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential Election Source: Wall Street Journal
4 130.0 Current Level of Consumer Confidence Indicates Economic Prosperity Above 110 indicates economic prosperity Mar 2012 Jun 2012 Sep 2012 Dec 2012 Mar 2013 Jun 2013 Sep 2013 Dec 2013 Mar 2014 Jun 2014 Sep 2014 Dec 2014 Mar 2015 Jun 2015 Sept 2015 Dec 2015 Mar 2016 Jun 2016 Sep 2016 Dec 2016 Mar 2017 Source: The Conference Board
5 Expectations of Future Inflation on the Rise
6 Small Business Optimism on the Rise
7 Irrational Exuberance?
8 Divergence of Soft vs Hard Data
9 Why?
10 Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession Thousands Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
11 Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession Thousands Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
12 Index Slower Recovery than Past Recessions Periods from Value Scaled to Recession 2001 Recession 1990 Recession 1981 Recession 1980 Recession 1973 Recession Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
13 Slower Recovery than Past Recessions
14 Mixed March Job Indicators Indicator Expectation Actual Total Nonfarm Payrolls 175,000 98,000 Unemployment Rate 4.7% 4.5% Private Payrolls 200,000 89,000 Monthly Average Hourly Wage Growth Yearly Average Hourly Wage Growth 0.3% 0.2% 2.8% 2.7% Labor Force Participation 62.9% 63.0% Sources: Wall street Journal and Bureau of Labor Statistics
15 98,000 Jobs Added in March Million Jobs Lost Payroll Change 000 s Million Jobs Recovered Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
16 National Employment Change Percent Change in National Employment by Industry: Mar 2016 to Mar 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government -1.2% Total: 1.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.9% 0.7% 2.6% 2.2% 3.2% 2.3% 1.7% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted
17 National Employment Change Total Change in Number of Jobs by Industry in Thousands: Mar 2016 to Mar 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted
18 Unemployment Rate Indicates Full Employment % = Full Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
19 Unemployed and Discouraged Workers Down from Last Month U-6 (Underemployed) U-3 (Unemployment) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
20 Long Term Unemployment Too High
21 Unemployment Duration Remains High
22 % Labor Force Participation Among Lowest Level in Almost 40 Years Mar % Apr % Mar % Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Seasonally adjusted
23 % 68.0 Labor Force Participation Seeing Little Change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Seasonally adjusted
24 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Male vs Female Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate 40% 30% Men Women Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
25 Participation Among Women Aged Has Surged
26 4.0% 3.5% Yearly Wage Growth Down Slightly in March Mar % 3.0% 2.5% Average = 2.4% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Growth rate calculated using real chained dollars
27 5.0 Producer Price Index on the Rise Percent Year-to-Year Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; not seasonally adjusted
28 4.5% U.S. Consumer Price Index Yearly Change Rate 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% Inflation Surpasses Fed Target Aug 2011 Nov 2011 Feb 2012 May 2012 Aug 2012 Nov 2012 Feb 2013 May 2013 Aug 2013 Nov 2013 Feb 2014 May 2014 Aug 2014 Nov 2014 Feb 2015 May 2015 Aug 2015 Nov 2015 Feb 2016 May 2016 Aug 2016 Nov 2016 Feb 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
29 Growth in Consumer Spending At Par Personal Consumption Expenditure Yearly Percent Change Percent Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
30 Growth in Consumer Spending At Par Personal Consumption Expenditure Yearly Percent Change Percent Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
31 Consumption Drives Growth 5% Total GDP Growth 3% Growth Rate 1% -1% -3% -5% Fixed Investment Inventories Net Exports Government Personal Consumption 4Q GDP 2.1% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
32 = 100 The U.S. Dollar is Strong Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Broad Source: Federal Reserve
33 Euro compared to U.S. Dollar $1.60 $1.50 $1.40 $1.39 $1.30 USD $1.20 $1.10 PARITY $1.00 $0.90 $ $1.05 Source: Investing.com
34 U.S. Dollar Compared to Chinese Yuan $6.00 $6.50 $7.00 $7.50 $8.00 $ China stops the yuan s rise 2001 China joins WTO 2005 China allows the yuan to rise 2010 China allows the yuan to rise Aug 2015 China devalues the yuan by largest amount in 20 years Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
35
36 $1.80 British Pound Dropped to New Low Following Brexit Vote $1.70 $1.60 USD $1.50 $1.40 $1.30 $1.20 $ Source: Investing.com
37 U.S. Total Rig Count Recovering from Low as Oil Prices Rise $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $ Oil Prices 2015 Source: Baker Hughes and U.S. Energy Information Administration Note: Total count includes oil and gas rigs 2016 Active Oil Rigs ,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,
38 Federal Funds Target Rate Sees 3 nd Increase in Over a Decade Federal Funds Target Rate = Source: U.S. Federal Reserve
39 March 2017 Fed Rate Increase Projections 4% 3% 3.0% 3.0% 2% 1.4% 2.1% 1% 0% Long Run Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
40 Utah Economic Conditions
41 Utah Accolades CNBC: Utah Named 2016 Top State for Business WalletHub: Utah Named 2016 State with Best Economy CNBC: Salt Lake City (18), Ogden (7), and Provo (2) Named Among Top 20 Metro Areas to Start a Business in U.S. Forbes: Utah Named #1 Best State for Business (top stop 5 out of past 6 years) Standard & Poor s, Moody s Investors Service, and Fitch Ratings: Utah One of only 10 States with AAA Bond Rating
42 CA 0.7% OR 1.7% WA 1.8% NV 2.0% ID 1.8% AK 0.6% UT 2.0% AZ 1.7% Utah Population Fastest Growing in U.S. MT 1.0% WY -0.2% CO 1.7% NM 0.0% HI 0.2% Percent Change: 2015 to 2016 U.S. Rate = 0.7% ND 0.1% SD 0.9% NE 0.7% TX 1.6% KS 0.3% 0.0% OK 0.4% MN 0.7% IA 0.4% MO 0.3% AR 0.3% WI 0.2% LA 0.3% IL -0.3% MS 0.0% MI 0.1% IN 0.3% TN 0.9% AL 0.2% 1.5% or more OH 0.1% KY 0.3% 0.7% to 1.4% (at or above U.S. rate) 0.2% to 0.6% 0.0% to 0.1% Population Loss WV -0.5% VT -0.2% PA -0.1% NC 1.1% SC 1.4% GA 1.1% VA 0.5% FL 1.8% NH 0.4% NY 0.0% ME 0.2% DC 1.6% CT -0.2% DE 0.8% MD 0.4% MA 0.4% RI 0.1% NJ 0.1% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
43 Utah Population and Components of Change Total Population 3,600,000 3,300,000 3,000,000 2,700,000 2,400,000 2,100,000 1,800,000 1,500,000 1,200, , , , ,051, , , Components of Population Change Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population f 2018f Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Data from 2014 on from State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group e = estimate, f = forecast
44 Utah Population Growth Rates By County 2015 to 2016 Box Elder 2.2% Tooele 3.1% Davis 1.9% Cache 2.2% Rich 1.0% Weber 1.7% Morgan 3.1% Summit Salt Lake 2.1% 1.5% Utah 3.0% Wasatch 4.7% Duchesne -2.1% Daggett -1.4% Uintah -3.7% State Average = 2.0% Juab 4.2% Carbon -0.2% Increase of 3.0% or Greater Increase of 2.0% to 2.9% Millard 0.4% Sanpete 2.1% Sevier 1.6% Emery -1.3% Grand 0.9% Increase of 1.0% to 1.9% Beaver 1.9% Piute -2.5% Wayne 0.0% Increase of 0.0% to 0.9% Population Loss Iron 3.4% Washington 3.1% Kane 3.0% Garfield -0.1% San Juan 7.6% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
45 CA 1.9% OR 2.2% Percent Change in Employment for States: February 2016 to February 2017 U.S. Rate = 1.6% WA 2.7% NV 3.2% AK -2.0% ID 3.6% UT 3.3% AZ 2.2% Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Utah Employment Growth 2 nd Highest in the Nation MT 2.4% WY -2.5% HI 0.8% CO 1.9% NM 0.7% ND -0.7% SD 1.4% NE 1.3% KS 0.0% TX 1.9% OK -0.4% MN 1.3% IA 0.7% MO 1.9% AR 1.3% WI 1.0% LA 0.2% IL 0.8% MS 0.1% MI 1.9% IN 1.3% TN 2.2% AL 1.5% OH 0.8% KY 1.4% GA 2.6% WV -0.4% VT 1.1% PA 1.3% NC 1.8% SC 1.6% VA 1.4% FL 3.0% NH 1.7% NY 1.4% 2.0% or more 1.6% to 1.9% (at or above the U.S. rate) 1.0% to 1.5% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss ME 0.5% DC 0.5% CT 0.1% DE 0.7% MD 2.1% MA 1.6% RI 1.2% NJ 1.8%
46 Utah Total Employment at New Highs Thousands of Employees Loss of 92,000 jobs from Gain of 284,000 jobs from low in Total Nonfarm Employment Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Total nonfarm seasonally adjusted Note: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand
47 Utah Industries Seeing Growth Percent Change in Utah Employment by Industry: February 2016 to February 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government -9.1% Total: 3.3% -1.6% 4.1% 3.0% 4.3% 2.0% 4.2% 3.8% 3.1% 4.4% 2.3% -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
48 Utah Industries Seeing Growth Total Change in Utah Employment by Industry: February 2016 to February 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining -800 Construction 3,500 Manufacturing 3,800 Trade, Trans., Utilities 11,500 Information Financial Activity ,600 Prof. & Bus. Serv. 8,200 Ed. & Health Serv. 7,200 Leisure & Hospitality 4,200 Other Services Government 1,700 5,400 Total: 45,700-3,000-1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 13,000 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
49 Utah Employment Change Rates By County Feb 2016 to Feb 2017 State Rate = 3.3% Box Elder 4.1% Tooele 5.3% Juab 1.2% Cache 1.6% Rich 12.4% Weber 3.7% Davis 3.1% Morgan 3.0% Salt Lake 3.5% Utah 4.4% Summit 3.1% Wasatch 5.9% Duchesne -3.7% Carbon -3.6% Daggett 6.5% Uintah -3.7% 5.0% or more 3.3% to 4.9% Millard 5.1% Sanpete 4.0% Sevier 2.0% Emery -4.1% Grand 5.0% 1.0% to 3.2% Beaver -3.8% Piute 3.3% Wayne -1.7% 0.0% to 0.9% Iron 6.4% Garfield 1.9% San Juan 0.5% Loss Washington 5.1% Kane -1.8% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; Not seasonally adjusted
50 OR 4.0% CA 5.0% WA 4.9% NV 4.9% AK 6.4% ID 3.6% UT 3.1% AZ 5.1% Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics UT Unemployment Rates 7 th Lowest in the Nation MT 3.8% HI 2.8% WY 4.7% CO 2.9% NM 6.8% February 2017 U.S. Rate = 4.7% ND 2.9% SD 2.8% NE 3.2% KS 4.0% TX 4.9% OK 4.6% MN 4.0% IA 3.2% MO 4.1% AR 3.7% LA 5.8% WI 3.7% IL 5.4% MS 5.2% MI 5.3% IN 4.1% TN 5.3% AL 6.2% 3.9% or less OH 5.1% KY 4.9% GA 5.3% WV 5.2% VT 3.0% PA 5.0% NC 5.1% SC 4.4% VA 3.9% FL 5.0% NH 2.7% NY 4.4% 4.0% to 4.7% (at or below U.S. rate) 4.8% to 5.4% 5.5% to 5.9% 6.0% or more ME 3.2% DC 5.7% CT 4.7% DE 4.5% MD 4.2% MA 3.4% RI 4.5% NJ 4.4%
51 Utah Unemployment Rates By County February 2017 State Rate = 3.1% Box Elder 3.2% Tooele 3.3% Juab 3.2% Cache 2.8% Weber 3.5% Morgan Davis 2.9% 2.7% Salt Lake 2.9% Utah 2.8% Rich 2.9% Summit 2.8% Wasatch 3.0% Duchesne 6.5% Carbon 5.4% Daggett 3.5% Uintah 6.8% 3.1% or lower 3.2% to 3.9% Millard 3.2% Sanpete 3.7% Sevier 3.6% Emery 5.6% Grand 5.4% 4.0% to 5.9% Beaver 4.8% Piute 5.2% Wayne 7.6% 6.0% to 6.9% Iron 4.1% Garfield 7.9% San Juan 7.3% 7.0% or greater Washington 3.3% Kane 3.4% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
52 CA 4.5% WA 4.8% OR 4.5% NV 5.9% UT 5.6% AZ 4.3% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis UT Personal Income Growth 2 nd Highest in the Nation AK -1.0% ID 3.6% Percent Change in Personal Income : U.S. = 3.6%; UT = 5.6% MT 2.3% WY -1.7% HI 4.5% CO 3.9% NM 2.1% ND -1.5% SD 1.2% NE 2.8% KS 2.8% TX 2.9% OK 0.6% MN 3.0% IA 2.3% MO 3.5% AR 3.2% WI 3.1% LA 1.5% IL 3.1% MS 3.2% MI 3.6% IN 3.9% TN 3.9% AL 3.3% 4.0% or more OH 3.0% KY 2.6% GA 4.8% WV 1.0% VT 3.3% PA 2.9% NC 4.1% SC 4.4% VA 3.6% FL 4.9% NH 4.7% NY 2.9% 3.6% to 3.9% (at or above the U.S. rate) 2.0% to 3.5% 0.0% to 1.9% Decrease ME 3.7% DC 4.5% CT 3.0% DE 2.9% MD 3.7% MA 4.3% RI 3.1% NJ 3.2%
53 Utah Poverty Rate 5 th Lowest in the Nation CA 13.9% WA 11.4% OR 11.9% NV 13.0% AK 9.2% ID 12.3% UT 9.3% AZ 17.2% 2015 U.S. Rate = 13.5%, 2015 Utah Rate = 9.3% MT 11.9% WY 9.8% HI 10.9% CO 9.9% NM 19.7% ND 10.7% SD 13.9% NE 10.3% KS 14.2% TX 14.7% OK 14.2% MN 7.8% IA 10.4% MO 9.8% AR 16.1% WI 11.4% LA 18.6% IL 10.9% MS 19.1% MI 12.8% IN 13.5% TN 14.7% AL 16.3% 10.0% or less 10.1% to 11.0% OH 13.6% KY 19.5% WV 14.5% VT 10.7% PA 12.3% VA 10.9% NC 15.3% SC 14.3% GA 18.1% FL 16.2% NH 7.3% NY 14.2% 11.1% to 13.5% (at or below the U.S. rate) 13.6% to 16.0% 16.1% or more ME 12.3% DC 16.6% CT 9.1% DE 11.1% MD 9.6% MA 11.5% RI 11.8% NJ 11.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
54 Consumer Sentiment on the Rise Mar 2012 Above 110 indicates economic prosperity Jun 2012 Sep 2012 Dec 2012 Mar 2013 Jun 2013 Sep 2013 Dec 2013 Mar 2014 Jun 2014 Sep 2014 Dec 2014 Mar 2015 Zions Bank Utah Consumer Attitude Index United States Consumer Jun 2015 Sep 2015 Dec 2015 Mar 2016 Jun 2016 Sep 2016 Dec 2016 Mar 2017 Source: U.S. CCI from The Conference Board and Utah CAI from Cicero Group
55 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% Aug 2011 Nov 2011 Consumer Price Index Yearly Growth United States vs. Wasatch Front Feb 2012 May 2012 Aug 2012 Nov 2012 Feb 2013 May 2013 Aug 2013 Nov 2013 Feb 2014 May 2014 United States CPI: +2.7% Zions Bank Wasatch Front CPI: +3.2% Aug 2014 Nov 2014 Feb 2015 May 2015 Aug 2015 Nov 2015 Feb 2016 May 2016 Aug 2016 Nov 2016 Feb 2017 Source: U.S. CPI from National Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wasatch Front CPI from Cicero Group
56 Utah Median Home Sale Prices Reaching Approaching Pre-Recession Highs $300,000 $280,000 $260,000 $240,000 $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100, Utah U.S Source: Graphiq.com reporting data from CoreLogic
57 Utah Maintains Lower Percentage of Foreclosures than Nation Percentage of total homes in foreclosure process U.S. Utah Source: Graphiq.com
58 30,000 Utah Residential Construction Activity Continues to Rise 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, e 2017f 2018f Single-Family Units Multifamily Total Source: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Group, Moody s Economy.com, and HIS Global Insight
59 Millions $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 Utah Value of New Residential Construction Increasing $ Residential Nonresidential Renovations Total e 2017f 2018f Source: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Group, Moody s Economy.com, and HIS Global Insight e= estimate f = forecast
60 Utah Economic Indicators f Population Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate Personal Income Home Prices Retail Sales e 2017f 2018f Sources: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group, Moody s Economy.com, IHS Global Insights e = estimate f = forecast
61 Zions Bank, A Division of ZB, N.A. Member FDIC. Content is offered for informational purposes only and should not be construed as tax, legal, financial or business advice. Please contact a professional about your specific needs and advice. Content may contain trademarks or trade names owned by parties who are not affiliated with ZB, N.A. Use of such marks does not imply any sponsorship by or affiliation with third parties, and ZB, N.A. does not claim any ownership of or make representations about products and services offered under or associated with such marks. Robert Spendlove Economic and Public Policy Officer Robert.Spendlove@zionsbank.com Phone:
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