Changing Demographics in the U.S. and the Impact on Congress

Transcription

1 Changing Demographics in the U.S. and the Impact on Congress Richard Fry, PhD Prepared for presentation to the HACU 16 th Annual National Capitol Forum on Hispanic Higher Education, Washington, DC April 4, 2011

2 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC Fax

3 HISPANIC CHILDREN & CENSUS 2010

4 Children 2010 and 2000 ALL HISPANIC % Population (thousands) ,165 17, ,175 12, Population Growth Growth (thousands) 1,989 4,790 Growth (%) Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau Redistricting_Files-PL_ for states

5 Six States Have At Least 500,000 Hispanic Children HISPANIC CHILDREN (thousands) Rank (thousands) Rank United States 17,132 12,342 California 4, ,051 1 Texas 3, ,387 2 Florida 1, New York Illinois Arizona New Jersey Colorado Georgia North Carolina Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau Redistricting_Files-PL_ for states

6 In Twelve States More than 1-in- 5 Children are Hispanic HISPANIC SHARE OF ALL CHILDREN (%) 2010 Rank 2000 United States New Mexico California Texas Arizona Nevada Colorado Florida Illinois New York New Jersey Oregon Rhode Island Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau Redistricting_Files-PL_ for states

7 THE FUTURE GROWTH OF HISPANIC CHILDREN

8 Hispanic Children Are Projected to be the Major Growing Group of Children 73 School-age Population (in millions) 54 total school-age pop Hispanic school-age pop Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, National Population Projections Released 2008

9 Hispanics Projected to be the Largest School-age Population by % % of School-age Population 20% 38% 39% NH white Hispanic NH black NH asian 15% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, National Population Projections Released % 4% 6%

10 GROWING HISPANIC DEMAND FOR HIGHER EDUCATION

11 50% 18-to-24 Year-olds Enrolled in College All Race/ethnicities 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau Historical Time Series on College Enrollment,

12 18-to-24 Year-olds Enrolled in College, by Major Race/ethnic Group 50% 40% 30% NH White Hispanic 20% Black 10% 0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau Historical Time Series on College Enrollment,

13 Hispanic 18-to-24 Year-old High School Completion Hispanic 18-to-24 Year-olds Finishing High School 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau Historical Time Series on College Enrollment,

14 18-to-24 Year-old High School Completers Enrolled in College 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau Historical Time Series on College Enrollment, NH White Hispanic Black

15 Hispanics are a Growing Proportion of 18-to-24 Year-old College Students Hispanic Share of 18-to-24 Year-old College Students 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau Historical Time Series on College Enrollment,

16 Hispanics are Soon to be the Largest Minority Among 18-to-24 Year-old College Students Share of 18-to-24 Year-old College Students 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% Hispanic Black 4% 2% 0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau Historical Time Series on College Enrollment,

17 Hispanic Undergraduates are More Likely to Enroll at 2-year and Less-than-2-year Institutions 4 year 2-year less than 2-year 53% 58% 52% 56% 42% 40% 44% 43% 4% 1% 4% 1% Hispanic White Black Asian Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Fall 2009 IPEDS enrollment data

18 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC Tel: Fax: The Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that provides information on the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world.

19 THE HISPANIC PUBLIC SCHOOL POPULATION

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21 Most Hispanic Students are not Limited English Speakers

22 Parental Education of Hispanic Public School Students % of Hispanic Students whose Parent(s) Did Not Complete High School 50.2% 42.3% % of Hispanic Students Whose Parent(s) Have Some College or More 52.8% 29.7% 23.9% 16.2% Foreign-Born Second Generation Third Generation+ Foreign-Born Second Generation Third Generation+ Source: Richard Fry and Felisa Gonzales, One-in-Five and Growing Fast: A Profile of Hispanic Public School Students, Pew Hispanic Center

23 DISPERSION AND SUBURBANIZATION

24 Counties with Largest Hispanic Populations, 1980

25 Counties with Largest Hispanic Populations, 2007

26 Where Were Concentrations in 1980? Almost All 15%+ Counties Along Border 14.6 Million Hispanics 6.4% of Total

27 Where Were Concentrations in 1990? Almost All 15%+ Counties Along Border, Still 22.4 Million Hispanics 9.0% of Total Counties With 15%+ Hispanic

28 Where Were Concentrations in 2000? Fast Growth Away from Border 35.3 Million Hispanics 12.5% of Total Counties With 15%+ Hispanic

29 Where Were Concentrations in 2007? Many Concentrations Emerge in Distant Areas 45.5 Million Hispanics 15.1% of Total Counties With 15%+ Hispanic

30 Distribution of Hispanics by 1980 Hispanic County Population Size percent of 2007 Hispanics 58% 20% 16% 7% percent of 2000 Hispanics 62% 19% 14% 5% percent of 1990 Hispanics 68% 18% 12% 3% percent of 1980 Hispanics 68% 17% 12% 4% counties with 50,000 or more Hispanics 1980 (47) 10,000 to 49,999 Hispanics ,000 to 9,999 Hispanics 1980 less than 1,000 Hispanics 1980

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33 HISPANIC YOUTH S GROWING SCHOOLING PARTICIPATION

34 More Latino Youth are Enrolling in School (% enrolled in school or college) Hispanic White Black

35 Increased School Enrollment has Occurred Among Young Hispanic Women (% enrolled in school or college) Men Hispanic White Black Hispanic Born Abroad Hispanic U.S.-Born Women Hispanic White Black Hispanic Born Abroad Hispanic U.S.-Born Note: Whites include only non-hispanic whites. Blacks include only non-hispanic blacks. Figures refer to 16-to-25 year-olds. Source: Pew Hispanic Center

36 Hispanic High School Dropout Rates Have Declined (status high school dropout rate, %) Men Hispanic White 6 15 Black Hispanic Born Abroad Hispanic U.S.- Born Women Hispanic White 5 15 Black 8 28 Hispanic Born Abroad Hispanic U.S.- Born 9 31 Note: Whites include only non-hispanic whites. Blacks include only non- Hispanic blacks. Figures refer to 16-to-25 year-olds. Source: Pew Hispanic Center

37 Young Hispanic College Enrollment Rates Have Increased (% of high school completers enrolled in college) Men Hispanic White Black Hispanic Born Abroad Hispanic U.S.-Born Women Hispanic White Black Hispanic Born Abroad Hispanic U.S.-Born Note: Whites include only non-hispanic whites. Blacks include only non-hispanic blacks. Figures refer to 16-to-25 year-olds. Source: Pew Hispanic Center

38 Hispanic Children Will Increasingly be Third Generation and Higher