Economic Growth in the Trump Economy

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1 Economic Growth in the Trump Economy Presented to State Data Center Conference William F. Fox, Director November 18, 2016

2 GDP Grows, Though Slowly Percentage Change, Previous Qtr, SAAR November 2016 William F. Fox 2

3 Current Expansion is Getting Long (June-July Fiscal Year) FY19 FY18 FY17 History Months Sources: NBER and Moody s Analytics. November 2016 William F. Fox 3

4 Productivity Growth Has Been Much Lower for Four Decades Average Annual Growth Rates Decade Ending in Year Gordon, Robert J. The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living Since the Civil War. November 2016 William F. Fox 4

5 Consumption Leads Economic Growth 8.0 Percentage Change, Previous Qtr, SAAR November 2016 William F. Fox 5

6 Income Growth Slowing at All Levels Period Average Bottom Fifth Middle Fifth Top 1% % 3.0% 2.8% 1.4% % 1.4% 1.7% 4.5% % 0.1% 1.1% 2.3% Note: Growth rates are average annual incomes corrected for changes in the CPI. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Bureau of the Census; Immanueal Saez. Gordon, Robert J. The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living Since the Civil War. November 2016 William F. Fox 6

7 Gasoline Prices Still Very Low $4.50 $4.00 Dollars Per Gallon $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 November 2016 William F. Fox 7

8 We are at the Front End of Population Aging 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% Share of total population 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Under 18 years 18 to 64 years 65 years and over November 2016 William F. Fox 8

9 Population 65 Years and Older, Increasing Across the Country (2030) U.S. Average: 19.7% Less than 15.0% 15.0% to 16.9% 17.0% to 18.9% 19.0% to 19.7% Greater than 19.7% November 2016 William F. Fox 9

10 Consumer Debt Balance Rising Again Other Student Mortgage 10.0 Trillions of Dollars November 2016 William F. Fox 10

11 Light Vehicles Sales at Expansion Level Unit Sales (millions) Q3 88Q3 89Q3 90Q3 91Q3 92Q3 93Q3 94Q3 95Q3 96Q3 97Q3 98Q3 99Q3 00Q3 01Q3 02Q3 03Q3 04Q3 05Q3 06Q3 07Q3 08Q3 09Q3 10Q3 11Q3 12Q3 13Q3 14Q3 15Q3 16Q3 November 2016 William F. Fox 11

12 Creation of Housing Units has Slowed Dramatically All Housing Units (in millions) YTD November 2016 William F. Fox 12

13 Households Formation Slowing Among the Young 35,000 Households (thousands) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Young Adults (under 30) Older Adults (65+) November 2016 William F. Fox 13

14 Housing Sales Rising but Low for an Expansion Units of Existing Homes (Millions) Existing Home Sales Housing Starts Housing Starts (Millions) November 2016 William F. Fox 14

15 Housing Sales Also Rising in Tennessee 60.0 Realty Transfer Year-over-year growth (percentage) Realty Mortgage November 2016 William F. Fox 15

16 Business Investment Has Been a Drag on Growth 40.0 Percentage Change, Previous Quarter, SAAR November 2016 William F. Fox 16

17 Federal Deficits are a Low Share of GDP, but Unified Federal Budget Surplus (bil $) , , , , Fiscal Year November 17, 2016 William F. Fox Boyd Center for Business & Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu 17

18 Deficits Rise Rapidly in the Future (billion) November 2016 William F. Fox 18

19 The Strong Dollar is Raising the Trade Deficit Exports - Imports, Billions of Chained 2009 Dollars November 2016 William F. Fox 19

20 U.S. Oil Production Limits the Trade Deficit 4,000 4,000 Imports (Millions of Barrels) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Production (Millions of Barrels) 1,000 1, U.S. Imports of Crude Oil U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil November 2016 William F. Fox 20

21 Interest Rates and Inflation Rates Low, but Rising Rate Federal Funds Rate, % per annum Inflation, year-over-year -4.0 November 2016 William F. Fox 21

22 State Economic Momentum (September 2016) Percentage Above National Avg Economic Performance (%) UT OR FL NV WA GA SC CO ID NC TN AZ CA HI MA Top 15 States Source: State Policy Reports, Vol.34, No November 2016 William F. Fox 22

23 Tennessee Job Growth Exceeds the Nation 4.0 Percentage Change, Same Month Last Year TN U.S November 2016 William F. Fox 23

24 TN has 170,000 More Jobs than the Previous Peak 3,100.0 Employment (thousands) 3, , , , , ,500.0 November 2016 William F. Fox 24

25 Tennessee s Unemployment Rate Near Previous Lows 12.0 TN U.S Rate (%) November 2016 William F. Fox 25

26 Labor Force Participation Rates Show Sign of a Turnaround Participation Rate (%) recession TN U.S. Sep Sep Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. November 2016 William F. Fox 26

27 Recent Labor Force Participation Patterns Similar by Gender Total Men Women Participation Rate (%) Sep November 2016 William F. Fox 27

28 Full Recovery from the Great Recession in Most Sectors (September 2016 as a Share of December 2007) Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Total Nonfarm Other Services Financial Activities Government Trade, Transportation, Utilities Manufacturing Mining, Logging, Construction Information 125.3% 122.9% 112.6% 106.2% 105.9% 104.0% 101.9% 100.8% 91.6% 90.4% 89.8% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% 140.0% November 2016 William F. Fox 28

29 TN Metro Area Employment Growth Cleveland 6.1% Morristown Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro-- Franklin 3.3% 3.1% Clarksville TENNESSEE Knoxville Johnson City Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol, TN-VA Chattanooga Jackson 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% Memphis, TN-MS-AR 0.3% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% Growth Rate (%) November 2016 William F. Fox 29

30 Per Capita Income is Lower than the U.S. Average in All But Four Counties Tennessee: $40,457 United States: $46, Less than $27,000 $27,000 to $33,250 $33,500 to $40,450 $40,451 to $46,048 Greater than $46,048 November 2016 William F. Fox 30

31 Tennessee is a Very Low Tax State U.S. =10.5% Tennessee = 8.0% Less than 8.0% (1) 8.0% to 10.4% (33) 10.5% to 12.9% (12) 13.0% and greater (4) November 2016 William F. Fox 31

32 State Budget Highly Dependent on Transactions Taxes, FY Sales Tax 55 All Other Taxes 10 Insurance & Banking 6 Motor Vehicle 2 Franchise & Excise 14 Gasoline Taxes 6 Gross Receipts & Privilege 5 Income & Inheritance 2 November 2016 William F. Fox 32

33 Tennessee Tax Revenues Rising, but Not as a Share of Income 16, , Tax Revenues (in millions) 12,500 10,500 8,500 6,500 4,500 Tax Revenues as Share of PI Tax Revenues Tax Revenues as Share of PI (%) 2, November 2016 William F. Fox 33

34 Real Sales Tax Revenue Growth Fastest in Decades % Growth, real Fiscal Year November 2016 William F. Fox 34

35 Tennessee Sales Taxes Grow Very Fast January March, 2015 to 2016 U.S.: 2.4% Tennessee: 9.1% Less than 2.4% (21) 2.4% to 5.9% (14) Greater than 5.9% (10) n.a. (5) November 2016 William F. Fox 35

36 Sales Tax Collections by Category of Sales (Quarter Ending September 2015 to September 2016) Building Materials 7.5% Auto Dealers and Service Stations Total Services Furniture & Home Furnishings 5.7% 5.6% 5.9% Miscellaneous Retail Stores GRAND TOTAL Eating & Drinking Places 3.8% 4.5% 4.2% Apparel & Accessory Stores Total Non-Retail Non-Services General Merchandise Food Stores 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.3% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% Growth November 2016 William F. Fox 36

37 Revenue Growth has been Good Despite Recent Tax Cuts Gift tax Inheritance tax Lower rate for food Elimination of the Hall Income Tax November 2016 William F. Fox 37

38 Tennessee s Fiscal Condition is Strong Revenue growth has been outstanding Revenue estimates have been very conservative Reserves and balances are in very good shape, though TN could not sustain a significant recession without significant cuts TennCare spending has grown rapidly This year likely to see significant new revenues for higher ed and a salary increase Imagine significant non-recurring expenditures as well November 2016 William F. Fox 38

39 Rainy Day Fund Rising and State has Significant Other Reserves 800 $ $ $557 $568 Millions of dollars $453 $284 $306 $356 $456 $ FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17* *Estimated November 2016 William F. Fox 39

40 Continued Importance of Education Apparent Unemployment Rate (%) Median Weekly Earnings ($) Less than a high school diploma 8.0 Less than a high school diploma $493 All workers $860 High school diploma 5.4 High school diploma $678 Some college, no degree 5.0 Some college, no degree $738 Associate's degree 3.8 Associate's degree $798 Bachelor's degree 2.8 Bachelor's degree $1,137 Master's degree 2.4 Master's degree $1,341 Professional degree 1.5 All workers 4.3% Professional degree $1,730 Doctoral degree 1.7 Doctoral degree $1,623 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics $0 $1,000 $2,000 November 2016 William F. Fox 40

41 November 2016 William F. Fox 41

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