Predicting the Markets: Chapter 15 Charts: Predicting Currencies

Transcription

1 Predicting the Markets: Chapter 15 Charts: March 3, 217 Dr. Edward Yardeni Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents 1-17 March 3, 217 / Chapter 15 Charts: www.

3 Figure 1. NET INFLOWS INTO EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS (cumulative flows since 2, trillion dollars) Total International* Domestic Jan * Includes Global & International, Emerging Markets, and Regional Funds. Source: Investment Company Institute. 1 9 Figure 2. NET INFLOWS INTO EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS (cumulative flows since 2, percent of total) Domestic International* Jan 1 * Includes Global & International, Emerging Markets, and Regional Funds. Source: Investment Company Institute. Page 1 / March 3, 217 / Chapter 15 Charts: www.

4 Figure 3. TOTAL VALUE OF US STOCKS (trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale) US Equity Issues at Market Value Total Total Ex Foreign Issues* * Total excluding market value of holdings of foreign corporate equities, investment fund shares, and American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) by US residents. ** Quarterly from Q through Q4-1989, and then monthly from January 199. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States. 25 Figure 4. FOREIGN EQUITIES HELD BY US RESIDENTS (as percent of total market value of equities held by US residents) Foreign Equities Share in US* * Market value of holdings of foreign corporate equities, investment fund shares, and American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) by US residents as a percent of the market value of their total equity holdings. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States. Page 2 / March 3, 217 / Chapter 15 Charts: www.

5 Figure 5. CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS RECEIPTS FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD* (billion dollars, saar, ratio scale) * Including Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Figure 6. CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS RECEIPTS FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD* (as a percent of pre-tax corporate profits) * Including Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 3 / March 3, 217 / Chapter 15 Charts: www.

6 Figure 7. FED S TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEXES (daily) Major* (3/73=1) Broad** (1/97=1) /24 2/ * Major index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange rates of the US dollar against the Euro Area, Australia, Canada, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, ** Broad index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange rates of the US dollar against the Euro Area, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Spain, Saudi Arabia, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, United Kingdom, and Venezuela. Source: Federal Reserve Board Figure 8. JP MORGAN TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX* (2=1, daily) JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate 3/ * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Rep., Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, UK, Uruguay, US, Venezuela, Vietnam, & Euro Area. Source: JP Morgan. Page 4 / March 3, 217 / Chapter 15 Charts: www.

7 .4 Figure 9. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI INDEX CURRENCY RATIO (US$ index / local currency index, daily) / Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International Figure 1. DEVELOPED WORLD EX-US MSCI INDEX CURRENCY RATIO (US$ index / local currency index, daily) / Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International Page 5 / March 3, 217 / Chapter 15 Charts: www.

8 Figure 11. GOLD PRICE (dollars per troy ounce, ratio scale) 3/ * Cash price. London gold bullion, PM Fix. Monthly from 1968 through 1974, then daily. Source: Haver Analytics Figure 12. CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX* (1967=1, ratio scale) 3/ * Weekly from 1951 to 1981, then daily. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Commodity Research Bureau. Page 6 / March 3, 217 / Chapter 15 Charts: www.

9 Figure 13. WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE OIL PRICE (dollars per barrel, ratio scale, monthly) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Haver Analytics Figure 14. NET EXPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN NOMINAL GDP (as a percent of nominal GDP) Total Ex Petroleum Q Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 7 / March 3, 217 / Chapter 15 Charts: www.

10 Figure 15. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET DEFICIT (as a percent of nominal GDP) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Figure 16. US TREASURY DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC* (trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale) Jan * Marketable interest-bearing bills, notes and bonds. Source: US Treasury Department, Monthly Statement of the Public Debt of the United States. Page 8 / March 3, 217 / Chapter 15 Charts: www.

11 8 85 Figure 17. INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR (daily) CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* (1967=1) 1 15 JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) 3/ / * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan Figure 18. INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR (daily) Brent Crude Oil Price (dollars per barrel) JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate* (inverted scale) / /3 * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Haver Analytics. Page 9 / March 3, 217 / Chapter 15 Charts: www.

12 85 9 Figure 19. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR (daily) / Emerging Markets MSCI Stock Price Index (in dollars) JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate* (inverted scale) / * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley Capital International. Figure 2. NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES: ADVANCED & EMERGING ECONOMIES (trillion dollars, ratio scale) Dec Dec Emerging Economies Advanced Economies* * Includes United States, Canada, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom. Source: IMF International Financial Statistics. Page 1 / March 3, 217 / Chapter 15 Charts: www.

13 .8.9 Figure 21. INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & CANADIAN DOLLAR (daily) Canada (C$/US$, inverted scale) 3/ CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Haver Analytics Figure 22. INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (daily) / Australia (A$/US$, inverted scale) CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Haver Analytics. Page 11 / March 3, 217 / Chapter 15 Charts: www.

14 1 Figure 23. US INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE (billion dollars, sa) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2 Figure 24. US INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS: STATISTICAL DISCREPANCY (billion dollars, sa) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 12 / March 3, 217 / Chapter 15 Charts: www.

15 Figure 25. CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (billion dollars) Merchandise Trade Surplus or Deficit (12-month sum) Non-Gold International Reserves (12-month change) Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics. Jan Jan Figure 26. CHINA: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS* (billion dollars) Jan * 12-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 12-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus (deficit). Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics. Page 13 / March 3, 217 / Chapter 15 Charts: www.

16 5 Figure 27. CHINA: NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES & YUAN Non-Gold International Reserves (trillion dollars, nsa) Jan 6.5 Yuan/US$ (inverted scale) Source: International Monetary Fund and Haver Analytics Figure 28. WORLD EX-US: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (billion dollars) 2 1 World Trade Surplus with US* (12-month sum) World Non-Gold International Reserves (12-month change) Jan 1 Dec * US trade deficit multiplied by -1.. Source: International Monetary Fund. Page 14 / March 3, 217 / Chapter 15 Charts: www.

17 2 Figure 29. WORLD EX-US: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS* (billion dollars) Dec * 12-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 12-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus with US (i.e., US trade deficit multiplied by -1.). Source: International Monetary Fund Figure 3. IMPLIED WORLD EX-US CAPITAL FLOWS & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR (yearly percent change) Implied World Ex-US Capital Flows* JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) /3 Dec * 12-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 12-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus (deficit). US trade deficit multiplied by -1.. ** Countries include Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) and JP Morgan. Page 15 / March 3, 217 / Chapter 15 Charts: www.

18 Figure 31. WORLD NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (12-month change, billion dollars) & TRADE WEIGHTED DOLLAR (yearly percent change) World Non-Gold International Reserves* (12-month change) JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) /3 Dec * 12-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 12-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus (deficit). US trade deficit multiplied by -1.. ** Countries include Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) and JP Morgan Figure 32. WORLD NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (yearly percent change) & TRADE WEIGHTED DOLLAR (yearly percent change) World Non-Gold International Reserves (yearly percent change) JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate (inverted scale) * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: International Monetary Fund and JP Morgan. 3/3 Dec Page 16 / March 3, 217 / Chapter 15 Charts: www.

19 Figure 33. INTERNATIONAL RESERVES HELD BY ALL CENTRAL BANKS (trillion dollars, ratio scale) Dec All Central Banks Non-Gold International Reserves Total Foreign Exchange Holdings Total Allocated Reserves Allocated Reserves in US Dollars Source: International Monetary Fund Figure 34. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF OFFICIAL FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES (COFER) (percent of Allocated Reserves in US dollars) Percent of Allocated Reserves In US Dollars Source: International Monetary Fund. 6 Page 17 / March 3, 217 / Chapter 15 Charts: www.

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